Journal of Hydrology最新文献

{"title":"Responses of seasonal hydrological processes to vegetation change in the Yellow River basin","authors":"Jinkai Luan ,&nbsp;Ning Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133449","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133449","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China’s extensive ecological restoration initiatives have greatly impacted land surface hydrological processes. While the effect of vegetation change on hydrological processes has been well documented for annual hydrological processes, its impacts on the seasonal ones remain poorly understood. Using a newly developed ecohydrological model (SWAT-PML), here we quantify the effects of vegetation change on seasonal hydrological processes in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). We show that the relative changes in hydrological processes due to vegetation change exhibit a high degree of consistency across different seasons, similar to those observed at the annual scale. In terms of the whole YRB, vegetation change during 1998–2020 has resulted in an ∼8 % increase in evapotranspiration, along with decreases of ∼6 % in runoff, ∼9% in soil moisture, ∼8% in surface runoff, and ∼4 % in groundwater across all seasons. However, the relative impacts of vegetation change on each seasonal hydrological process were spatially heterogeneous across the YRB, closely following the spatial pattern of the magnitude of vegetation changes. This is because vegetation changes that are more pronounced at either seasonal or annual scales typically exert greater influences on hydrological processes. Unlike the relative impacts, the sensitivity of hydrological processes to changes in leaf area index (LAI)—i.e., the absolute change in a hydrological variable when LAI changes by one unit—varies substantially across different seasons, with the highest sensitivity occurring in summer. Nevertheless, summer experiences the lowest relative sensitivity (i.e., the relative change in a hydrological variable due to each unit change in LAI) when comparing with other seasons. Spatially, the sensitivity of hydrological variables to LAI also varies considerably across the YRB, with higher (lower) sensitivity in more arid (humid) regions, a pattern linked to the climatic aridity. Our results provide valuable insights into understanding the impacts of vegetation changes on the water cycle at varying temporal scales.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"660 ","pages":"Article 133449"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144084691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating the drought propagation dynamics between meteorological and groundwater drought in the Yellow River Basin, China","authors":"Kaizheng Xiang ,&nbsp;Wenlong Song ,&nbsp;Jingxuan Lu ,&nbsp;Anzhou Zhao ,&nbsp;Yizhu Lu ,&nbsp;Tianshi Feng ,&nbsp;Hongjie Liu ,&nbsp;Rongjie Gui ,&nbsp;Long Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133446","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133446","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the mechanisms and propagation relationships between meteorological and groundwater droughts is crucial for producing early warnings of future hydrological droughts and groundwater management. However, scant research exists for mechanism of this unseen groundwater drought propagation. The drought characteristics and seasonal effects of meteorological drought and groundwater drought in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) were delved, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Groundwater Drought Index (GDI). Considering the problem of traditional drought propagation methods is not comprehensive, the modified drought propagation method was proposed, from both linear and nonlinear perspectives concerning their relationship. The findings indicate varying degrees of declining trends in meteorological and groundwater drought (<em>slope</em> = -0.0004/m, <em>P</em> &lt; 0.01; <em>slope</em> = -0.0089/m, <em>P</em> &lt; 0.01) in the YRB. The spatial distribution of worsening drought conditions is primarily concentrated in the central northern part of the YRB. However, groundwater drought has a larger affected area and a stronger declining trend. In terms of drought characteristics, meteorological and groundwater droughts have distinct seasonal patterns, but other characteristics show notable spatial heterogeneity. Meteorological droughts tend to occur early, have a high frequency, low intensity, and short duration. On the other hand, groundwater droughts exhibit opposite characteristics, occurring late, having a low frequency, high intensity, and long duration. The propagation time from meteorological drought to groundwater drought, calculated using linear and nonlinear methods, showed consistent seasonal effects, with the longest propagation time in winter and the shortest in summer. However, there are differences between the linear and nonlinear methods, with the linear method showing longer propagation times (12 months) compared to the shorter times in the nonlinear method (6 months). As for the characteristics of drought propagation, the modified drought propagation characteristic method proposed in this study demonstrates higher sensitivity and propagation rates compared to traditional single linear or nonlinear methods in the YRB. It compensates for the underestimation of traditional methods, providing better compensation and reducing uncertainty in the southern part of the YRB.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"660 ","pages":"Article 133446"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143923955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simulating vertical soil nitrate migration induced by freeze–thaw cycles","authors":"Yingqi Zhang ,&nbsp;Xiaoyu Zhang ,&nbsp;Beibei Ding ,&nbsp;Junyu Qi ,&nbsp;Gary W. Marek ,&nbsp;Puyu Feng ,&nbsp;De Li Liu ,&nbsp;Raghavan Srinivasan ,&nbsp;Yong Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133451","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133451","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Soil nitrate (NO₃-N) is a major contributor to groundwater contamination, posing significant risks to environmental health. This study investigated the critical role of freeze–thaw cycles in driving deeper soil hydrothermal dynamics and NO₃-N vertical migration within the 0–2 m soil profile under future climate change. Results showed that Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicted lower winter surface soil temperatures and less fluctuations in deeper soil layers than SWAT-FT, which equipped a physically-based freeze–thaw cycles module. Since the original SWAT model did not consider the phase transition of water and ice, the simulated soil water content was higher in winter than SWAT-FT. NO₃-N losses were greatest in May with more than 30.9 kg ha⁻¹ but were confined to surface soils. Losses in November, March, and April extended to deeper soils as influenced by legacy N and infiltration. Additionally, risk would increase with more severe emission scenarios, after freeze–thaw period, NO₃-N losses peaked at 100 cm in April of 7.0 kg ha⁻¹ and further migrated to 200 cm under high emission scenario for SWAT-FT. As for NO₃-N losses below soil profile, April comprised nearly 50% of the annual total, highlighting this critical month for mitigating losses. These findings revealed a “dual risk” of NO₃-N losses caused by instantaneous risk after fertilizer application and long-term risk from soil legacy N, highlighted the need to consider effects of freeze–thaw cycles and design targeted nitrogen management during high-risk periods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"660 ","pages":"Article 133451"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143923981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increasing impacts of compound extreme droughts on vegetation productivity in China","authors":"Guizeng Qi ,&nbsp;Jinxi Song ,&nbsp;Shouzhi Chen ,&nbsp;Yufeng Gong ,&nbsp;Hongying Bai ,&nbsp;Dunxian She ,&nbsp;Jun Xia ,&nbsp;Yongshuo H. Fu","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133447","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133447","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The intensification of global change has led to frequent atmospheric and soil drought events, posing severe threats to global ecosystems. Although soil drought (characterized by soil moisture, SM) and atmospheric drought (characterized by vapor pressure deficit, VPD) often co-occur, their combined effects are rarely quantified as compound droughts. This study integrates observational data and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations with correlation analysis, copula models, and machine learning to investigate the occurrence and impacts of compound extreme droughts. Our findings reveal that SM and VPD exhibit bimodal distributions, with synchronized extreme soil droughts and extreme atmospheric droughts occurring more frequently than expected from individual extreme events. Compared to the historical simulations (1920–1999) (−0.22 gC·m⁻²·day⁻¹), the impact of compound extreme droughts on gross primary productivity (GPP) are projected to be more severe in the future simulations (2021–2100) (SSP126:-0.26 gC·m⁻²·day⁻¹; SSP370:-0.33 gC·m⁻²·day⁻¹), with particularly pronounced impacts in semi-arid regions. The compound drought stress on GPP exhibits significant variations across vegetation types and along the climatic aridity gradient. With increasing carbon emission scenarios, CO₂ becomes a crucial regulatory factor in compound drought stress on vegetation productivity. The negative impact intensity and spatial extent of extreme soil drought on GPP far exceed those of extreme atmospheric drought, indicating that SM will play a more critical role in extreme drought stress on vegetation productivity. These findings highlight evidence that extreme drought events weaken vegetation carbon sequestration, providing essential insights for accurately assessing the interactions between vegetation and climate in China under climate change scenarios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"660 ","pages":"Article 133447"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143923953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Changes in snowmelt flooding and driver factors in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor","authors":"Haiting Zhang ,&nbsp;Min Xu ,&nbsp;Shichang Kang ,&nbsp;Xingdong Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133443","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133443","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flooding is one of the most frequent disasters in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is highly dangerous and destructive, and seriously hinders regional socio-economic development. In this study, the Block Maximum (BM) model and the Peak Over Threshold (POT) model were used to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of snowmelt floods in the Kashgar River Basin and the Indus River Basin of CPEC during 1948–2022. Historical floods were classified based on principal component analysis and the k-means clustering algorithm. The main climatic factors of snowmelt floods were analyzed using Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient and random forest model. The results indicated that 85 and 93 snowmelt flood events occurred respectively in the two basins, mainly in spring (March–May). The occurrence of snowmelt floods was advanced in the Kashgar River Basin, while that in the Indus River Basin was delayed. Five and four flood classes were identified in the Kashgar River Basin and the Indus River Basin, respectively. Attribution analysis suggested that the snow factors are key preconditions, especially the 14-day antecedent maximum SWE (MSWE). The Kashgar River Basin was more sensitive to 7-day cumulative precipitation (CPr7) from 1982 to 1999, but to 7-day cumulative daily average temperature (TEMP7) from 2000 to 2020. The Indus River Basin was more sensitive to 1-day cumulative precipitation (CPr1) from 1982 to 1999. However, the impact of CPr7 on snowmelt floods increased from 2000 to 2020. The study provides scientific and technological support for snowmelt flood forecasting and prevention in CPEC and regional disaster prevention and mitigation efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"660 ","pages":"Article 133443"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143923956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interspecific interactions enhance soil resistance to erosion: Synergistic effects of mixed grass species under simulated rainfall","authors":"Hao Gu ,&nbsp;Yuan Wang ,&nbsp;Sheng Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133452","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133452","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mixed seeding of herbaceous plants was frequently employed as a potential ecological restoration strategy in practical applications. However, the effects of mixed grass species to rainfall-induced soil erosion has rarely been evaluated. This study investigated the effects of single and mixed seeding of <em>Lolium perenne</em> and <em>Cynodon dactylon</em> on overland flow and soil loss under varying rainfall intensities through simulated rainfall experiments. The results demonstrated that mixed seeding significantly enhanced aboveground traits, with leaf area index increasing by 67.86 % compared to <em>C. dactylon</em> monocultures and 11.46 % compared to <em>L. perenne</em> monocultures. Belowground traits showed even greater improvements, with root biomass increasing by 80.13 % (vs. <em>C. dactylon</em>) and 59.66 % (vs. <em>L. perenne</em>), root length density by 68.14 % and 29.42 %, and root mass density by 79.81 % and 59.83 %, respectively. Mixed seeding demonstrated superior soil detachment reduction under all rainfall intensities, with soil detachment reductions ranging from 57.86 % to 92.91 %. The contribution of interspecific interactions under mixed seeding is particularly pronounced during intense rainfall, with relative contributions to runoff and soil detachment reduction reaching up to 29.39 % and 21.90 %, respectively. The presence of vegetation significantly altered hydrodynamic parameters to mitigate erosion. Mixed seeding decreased stream power by 19.66 % to 71.35 %, and enhanced the Darcy–Weisbach friction coefficient by a factor of 1.33 ∼ 3.29 relative to single-seeding. Soil detachment rates exhibited a linear relationship with runoff shear stress and stream power. Mixed seeding enhanced soil resistance to erosion by reducing soil erodibility by 30.57 ∼ 44.06 % and critical stream power by 7.59 ∼ 21.18 %, while increasing critical shear stress by 5.68 ∼ 9.41 % compared to monocultures. Furthermore, soil detachment rates exhibited a negative exponential relationship with both aboveground and belowground traits, with the increased traits induced by mixed seeding leading to reduced soil detachment rates. This study provides an in-depth understanding of the erosion control mechanisms of mixed seeding under different rainfall intensities, offering scientific guidance for vegetation configuration on slopes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"660 ","pages":"Article 133452"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143912442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating and modeling rill detachment and resistance in different rates and particle sizes of biochar application on the Loess Plateau of China","authors":"Jiaqi Zhao ,&nbsp;Yuan Yuan ,&nbsp;Chuang Yan ,&nbsp;Fengbao Zhang ,&nbsp;Jiaru Luo ,&nbsp;Jiayan Yang ,&nbsp;Jie Chen ,&nbsp;Yuanyuan Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133441","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133441","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The application of biochar can modify soil physicochemical properties, thereby influencing soil detachment capacity (D<em>_c</em>), rill erodibility (K<em>_r</em>) and critical shear stress (τ<em>_c</em>). However, the effects of biochar particle size on D<em>_c</em>, K<em>_r</em> and τ<em>_c</em> remain unexplored. This research investigated how apple branch-derived biochar with different biochar particle sizes and rates affects D<em>_c</em>, K<em>_r</em>, τ<em>_c</em>, and quantified their relationships with soil physicochemical properties through field experiment. Undisturbed soil samples were collected from field plots treated with biochar at 0 %, 1 %, 2.5 %, and 4 %, and particle sizes of 2–1, 1–0.5, and &lt;0.5 mm for 3 months, using steel rings to a depth of 20 cm. The D<em>_c</em>, K<em>_r</em>, and τ<em>_c</em> of these samples were evaluated using a flume experiment, where soil samples were subjected to two flow discharge rates (0.25 and 0.65 L s⁻¹) and three slope gradients (17.63 %, 26.79 %, and 40.40 %). The results revealed that biochar application significantly reduced D<em>_c</em> and K<em>_r</em>, with the most pronounced reductions observed at the 4 % biochar rate (65 % and 174 %, respectively). Larger biochar particles (2–1 mm) were more effective in reducing D<em>_c</em> (64 %) and K<em>_r</em> (61 %) compared to smaller sizes. The total porosity (TP), cohesion (COH), mean weight diameter of soil aggregates (MWD) and soil organic carbon (SOC) were identified as critical factors influencing D<em>_c</em> and K<em>_r</em>. Power function equations effectively estimated D<em>_c</em> and K<em>_r</em> based on TP, COH, MWD and SOC under different biochar application rates. Similarly, the D<em>_c</em> and K<em>_r</em> were well predicted using power function equations incorporating SOC, soil crust hardness (SH) and &gt;0.25 mm water-stable soil aggregate (SWA) under varying biochar particle sizes. These findings demonstrate that higher biochar application rates and larger particle sizes significantly enhance soil erosion resistance in loess soils, offering a promising strategy to mitigate rill erosion in degraded or degrading sloping farmlands on the Loess Plateau.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"660 ","pages":"Article 133441"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143943354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Critical source areas identification and reduction plan of non-point source pollution in a typical community in a plain river network city, China","authors":"Jing Hu ,&nbsp;Shuiling Zhang ,&nbsp;Jiuhe Bu ,&nbsp;Chunhui Li ,&nbsp;Xiangen Xu ,&nbsp;Xuan Wang ,&nbsp;Qiang Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133433","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133433","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Increasing non-point source pollution (NSP) due to population growth and urbanization has caused the deterioration of urban water environments, and the characteristics of stagnant water flow and complex river channels in plain river network areas have hindered the prevention and management of NSP there. Therefore, the simulation of NSP, the identification of critical source areas and proposal of effective pollution reduction schemes for the plain river network areas can contribute to the sustainable development of the natural ecology and social economy of plain river network areas. This study takes the Xinlong pilot area in Changzhou city as the study area. A NSP critical area identification system based on the PCSWMM model results was constructed for the characteristics of the plain river network city. Nine low-impact development construction scenarios based on three LID facilities were developed for the identified critical area, and the peak runoff reduction, pipe network overflow reduction and COD, TN and TSS load reduction were analyzed for each scenario under five rainfall recurrence periods of 5a, 10a, 30a, 50a, and 100a. The main findings of this study are as follows: 1) NSP The critical areas are old residential areas; 2) Scenario 2, which includes higher proportion of green roof and rain garden, shows best performance for peak runoff reduction, achieving a reduction rate of 11.19 %, 11.02 %, 10.75 %, 10.63 %, and 10.59 % under five rainfall recurrences, respectively; and 3) Among the nine renovation scenarios, scheme 8, which allocates 3 % to green roof, 2 % to permeable pavement, and 4 % to rain garden, demonstrated relatively good performance in simultaneously achieving runoff reduction, pipe network overflow rate reduction, and pollutant load reduction. The methods and results of this study provided improvements and guidance for urban planners and environmental managers in designing more effective and sustainable NSP control measures in plain river network cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"660 ","pages":"Article 133433"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143923986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Deep learning reveals future streamflow characteristics change and climate sensitivity","authors":"Subharthi Sarkar,&nbsp;Mohd Imran Khan,&nbsp;Rajib Maity","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133457","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133457","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study deploys the potential of Deep Learning (DL) technique for an improved future streamflow projection from General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations, by developing a reliable association between the observed streamflow and a set of primary meteorological variables at monthly scale over a historical period. Towards this, a DL-based Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) framework is developed to capture the hidden complex dynamics between streamflow and its two primary hydrometeorological precursors – precipitation and temperature, identified through Kendall’s partial correlation analysis. After ensuring model stability through various combinations of hypothesized climatic forcings, the developed model is used for long-term projection of basin-scale streamflow characteristics, utilizing future-projected bias-corrected temperature and precipitation data from six state-of-the-art GCMs following two emission scenarios. In general, the proposed DL-based approach is found to outperform two benchmark machine learning models in identifying the basin-specific climate sensitivity controlling streamflow variation. The efficacy of the proposed model is demonstrated over four rain-fed tropical river basins in India, located in different climate zones, namely Bhadra, Netravati, Tenughat, and Upper Narmada river basins. All four diverse basins showcase more than 90% correlation, with Netravati basin achieving an impressive 0.98 correlation coefficient over the testing period. Likewise, the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency values, evaluated over the testing period, range from 0.83 to 0.95 across these basins affirming the model’s robust and efficient performance. This multi-model, multi-scenario analysis reveals an increased streamflow variability in all the basins under a wetter and hotter climate in future, which gets more pronounced with time and higher emission scenario. The flow is projected to increase in the monsoon months, along with a practically unchanged or marginally less flow over the dry months. Such redistribution of streamflow pattern in near future definitely requires suitable management strategies and their implementation in well advance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"660 ","pages":"Article 133457"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143928990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A general chopping peak function for a reservoirs group flood control regulating","authors":"Zhenyu Mu ,&nbsp;Dedi Liu ,&nbsp;Zhenyu Wang ,&nbsp;Yuling Zhang ,&nbsp;Lihua Xiong ,&nbsp;Jie Chen ,&nbsp;Hua Chen ,&nbsp;Jiabo Yin","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133448","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133448","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flood event is one of the natural hazards and has affected the most people in the world. As the peak of the flood event is the most striking feature to its hazard, chopping flood peak is often the main goal of preventing flood hazard. To integrate the regulation of the flood storages in a reservoirs group for chopping flood peak, a general relationship among the flood events, the flood storages and the chopping peak has been quantified through Chopping Peak Function (CPF). And we have derived the analytical solutions for a single, a parallel or a cascade reservoirs group while numerical solution for a mixed reservoirs group to their corresponding CPF. Based on the solutions to their CPF, the mechanism is clarified for the integrated reservoirs flood storages regulation. The derived analytical solutions have also been proven to be more efficient for integrating the reservoirs regulation than for only every single reservoir regulation. The numerical solutions for the mixed reservoirs groups are found to be better than that of optimal reservoirs regulation model through NSGA-II in terms of the number and the distribution range of the Pareto frontier. Therefore, our study will not only help understand the regulation of the flood storages in reservoirs groups for chopping flood peak, but also find an efficient way to prevent flood hazard.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"660 ","pages":"Article 133448"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143928992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}