Nouman Afzal , Logan J. Swenson , Sam Zipper , Adam Zwickle , Chloe B. Wardropper
{"title":"Using values-informed mental models to understand farmer, water manager, and scientist use and perceptions of hydrologic models","authors":"Nouman Afzal , Logan J. Swenson , Sam Zipper , Adam Zwickle , Chloe B. Wardropper","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133171","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133171","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Decision-support systems using environmental data and models are increasingly common, but not always adopted by the intended end-users. This disconnect may be partly due to different values related to nature and the scientific process. In this study, we assessed whether and to what extent real-world water decisions, supported by groundwater flow models, are influenced by epistemic values (scientific values including testability and usability) and nature values. We conducted and analyzed semi-structured interviews of ten water managers, five hydrologic model developers, and seven agricultural producers within a Groundwater Management District in south-central Kansas overlying part of the US High Plains aquifer. We then constructed values-informed mental models related to each group’s decisions. The epistemic value for accuracy was the most important value influencing water management decisions, especially short-term operational and long-term planning decisions. Stewardship was the second most important value influencing water management decisions, especially decisions related to conservation. Participants from all three stakeholder groups mentioned most values in interviews, but model developers mentioned accuracy, methodological soundness and testability significantly more often than agricultural producers and water managers. Our results highlight differences—and commonalities—in how decision-support systems influence decisions across types of users, as well as the importance of acknowledging the role individual values play in environmental policy decisions. Incorporating these insights into modeling processes and communications can help hydrologic modelers and data producers better align their work with the decision needs of end-users.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"658 ","pages":"Article 133171"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143734697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Xuefang Li , Shuyue Yu , Vasileios Kitsikoudis , Guilhem Dellinger , Lihua Chen , Sébastien Erpicum , Léo Guiot , Chengguang Lai , Benjamin Dewals
{"title":"3D numerical modelling of flow exchanges between flooded streets and residential blocks during urban flooding in an idealized district","authors":"Xuefang Li , Shuyue Yu , Vasileios Kitsikoudis , Guilhem Dellinger , Lihua Chen , Sébastien Erpicum , Léo Guiot , Chengguang Lai , Benjamin Dewals","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133150","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133150","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flow exchanges between flooded streets and the interior of buildings through broken doors and windows can have a significant impact on the flow characteristics and the flood hazard in urban floods. Traditionally, urban floods are modelled with 2D shallow-water equations, however, this modelling approach is not always capable to reproduce such complicated flow exchanges. This study aims to investigate the added value of 3D non-hydrostatic numerical modelling over the modelling with 2D shallow-water equations for the accurate prediction of flow exchanges between flooded streets and the interior of buildings. Systematic comparisons were carried out between the results of 2D depth-averaged and 3D numerical modelling against laboratory observations for eight configurations of an urban block surrounded by flooded streets. Each urban block configuration had a different number and locations of openings in the block perimeter. The 3D model predicted the flow discharge partition at the street outlets more accurately than the 2D model, with an average RMSE of about 1 percentage point compared to the measurements. The flow in the interior of the urban block was typically characterized by large recirculation zones, which were successfully reproduced by the 3D model in terms of number, locations and directionality of recirculating flow, with only limited discrepancies in the sizes and shapes for some cases. The superiority of the 3D model over the 2D was particularly evident in the case where the streets meet a large open space. In addition, 3D models perform better than 2D models in cases with high vertical velocities. The vertical velocities are prominent in areas where flow jets and flow contractions are observed near the openings of the urban blocks, and can reach values up to 20% of the total depth-averaged velocities. The vertical variation of the flow pattern is rather limited from the bottom to the surface, but the difference between the magnitude of the surface velocity and the corresponding depth-averaged velocity reaches 50% in areas of complex flow patterns near the openings of the urban block. From an engineering perspective, this study informs practitioners when to opt for the more demanding 3D modelling instead of the traditional modelling with 2D shallow-water equations in the context of flow exchanges between flooded streets and the interior of buildings during urban floods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"658 ","pages":"Article 133150"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143724466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jin Zhao , Kai Ernn Gan , Shuyu Zhang , Gengxi Zhang , Xuezhi Tan , Hengnian Yan , Thian Yew Gan
{"title":"Detection and attribution of human influence on seasonal extreme precipitation in northern Hemisphere","authors":"Jin Zhao , Kai Ernn Gan , Shuyu Zhang , Gengxi Zhang , Xuezhi Tan , Hengnian Yan , Thian Yew Gan","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133133","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133133","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fingerprinting analysis have detected the impact of human activities on annual precipitation extremes. Using simulations of selected climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study has comprehensively demonstrated human influence on seasonal precipitation extremes of Northern Hemisphere Land (NHL) over different spatial scales from 1950 to 2014. By assessing the impacts of various climatic forcings on the maximum 1-day (Rx1day) and 5-day (Rx5day) precipitation indices, our results show that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcings predominantly drive the increase in observed Rx1day across most of the NHL in all four seasons, with more pronounced effects in fall and winter than in spring and summer. Furthermore, low-risk regions tend to experience greater GHG-induced Rx1day than high-risk regions in all seasons. Anthropogenic aerosol (AER) forcings significantly weaken Rx1day, particularly during winter in regions like India and southern China. Change point analysis reveals a rapid increase in Rx1day under GHG forcings and a slower decrease under AER forcing since the 1980s. However, the abrupt change in Rx1day under both anthropogenic and natural external (ALL) forcings generally began a decade later, around the 1990s. Using optimal fingerprinting techniques, we demonstrate for the first time that discernible anthropogenic forcings (ANT) impact at least one season in over 80% of CMIP6 subregions, with more than 60% of the contributions being attributable to ANT forcings. The number of subregions with detected ANT forcings is twice as high in winter compared to summer. Although seasonal natural (NAT) forcings are undetectable in one-signal analysis, they are detected in similar regions in both two- and three-signal analysis, suggesting that observed changes should be attributed to both anthropogenic and natural forcings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"657 ","pages":"Article 133133"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143716317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Huaisong Ji , Gabriele Chiogna , Wei Chang , Beatrice Richieri , Lin Chen , Mingming Luo , Xulei Guo , Kun Huang
{"title":"Investigating the structure of a multiple karst aquifer system and its hydrological process response using high-resolution multi-tracer data","authors":"Huaisong Ji , Gabriele Chiogna , Wei Chang , Beatrice Richieri , Lin Chen , Mingming Luo , Xulei Guo , Kun Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133152","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133152","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the hydrogeological structure and hydrogeochemical processes of karst aquifers is critical for groundwater management. This study innovatively integrates drilling, tracer tests, high-resolution monitoring, and multi-isotope techniques (<sup>3</sup>H, <sup>14</sup>C, δD, δ<sup>18</sup>O) to systematically characterize the spatial heterogeneity of a multiple karst aquifer system. Hydrochemical data was analyzed with the electrical conductivity decomposition method. Multivariate statistical analysis and the ions ratio are used to identify the sources and components of the spring water during storm events. The results indicate that: (1)The upper and lower aquifer systems are composed of limestone and dolomite, respectively, while the intermediate aquifer system is constituted by both limestone and dolomite. The upper and intermediate aquifer systems exhibit conduit flow regimes, whereas the lower aquifer is characterized by fracture flow. The lower aquifers (∼13,862-year residence time) show unique SO<sub>4</sub><sup>2-</sup>, Sr<sup>2+</sup>, F<sup>-</sup> enrichment and lighter δD/δ<sup>18</sup>O signatures, reflecting prolonged water-rock interactions. (2) Comparative analyses of ion ratios during storm events in the BLD spring, demonstrate that both limestone and dolomite significantly influence the spring hydrochemistry. The hydrochemistry changes in the spring outlet are caused by dilution and mixing of recharge from limestone and dolomite aquifers, triggered by rainfall. During rainstorm events, the dolomite aquifer is the primary source of recharge. (3) The study establishes a “structure-process-evolution” conceptual model, demonstrating how multi-tracer synergy resolves hydrological complexity in heterogeneous karst systems. Our study highlights the importance of collecting and interpreting high-resolution multi-tracer datasets to unravel the dynamics of hydrological processes in complex multiple karst aquifer systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"657 ","pages":"Article 133152"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143716339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Wei Du , Jia Wang , Jiahong Liu , Hao Wang , Jinjun Zhou , Chao Mei , Sana Nazli
{"title":"Quantitative assessment of urban flood disaster damages using the S-curve − A case study of Zhengzhou City","authors":"Wei Du , Jia Wang , Jiahong Liu , Hao Wang , Jinjun Zhou , Chao Mei , Sana Nazli","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133169","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133169","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban flood disasters have occurred frequently worldwide in recent years, causing huge population and property damages. Dynamic and accurate assessment of the occurrence and development of urban flood damages is the foundation for comprehensively understanding flood risks and formulating flood relief measures. This study proposes a dynamic flood damages assessment model, which achieves dynamic evaluation of flood damages under different relief measures by improving the function expression of the S-curve. The model depicts the functional relationship between disaster damage and the flood process, and simulates the effects of implementing different disaster relief measures at different time on the process of disaster damage. Three relief measures were considered to quantify the disparities in disaster damage: termination type (which directly stops the growth of disaster damages), decay type (which induces damage curve enter the decay stage), and weakening type (which causes the rate of increase in flood damage decreases). The disaster evolution pathways were analyzed to demonstrate damages in the urban flood disaster chains, such as the submergence events of the subway line 5 and the Jingguang Expressway tunnel. The research findings show that: (1) By using actual damage data and points of interest (POIs) data, the model demonstrated a good fit with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (<em>NSE</em>) > 0.837. (2) The timeliness and intensity of disaster relief measures are crucial factors in reducing disaster losses. In the two disaster events, timely disaster relief measures reduced disaster damages by 52.2 % and 30.6 %, respectively, comparing to untimely measures. (3) The urban flood disaster assessment model requires some application conditions, including the concentrated regional rainfall, flat terrain, and a substantial number of data points.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"658 ","pages":"Article 133169"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143724129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Improved predictions in ungauged basins using flood marks","authors":"Ludovic Oudin , Romain Caupin , Pierre Brigode","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133145","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133145","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hydrological models are crucial for predicting river flow and managing water resources, but they face challenges in ungauged basins where flow data are absent. Since most of the world’s basins are ungauged, regionalization techniques are often employed, which transfer parameters from similar and/or neighboring basins; however, this process frequently yields poor results. This study investigates the use of flood marks, specifically event dates, as alternative data to calibrate hydrological models in ungauged basins. Utilizing over 80,000 flood marks from the French Repères de Crue database, we assess whether these historical records can improve flow predictions in ungauged catchments using the GR4J model. Results suggest that while flood marks alone are insufficient, their combination with neighboring gauged data enhances model performance, indicating the potential for improved hydrological simulations in data-scarce regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"657 ","pages":"Article 133145"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143716281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Analyzing fracture connectivity from flowmeter tests using coupled modeling of borehole and fracture flows with Brinkman equations","authors":"Hyun Seung Seo , In Wook Yeo","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133125","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133125","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Boreholes, where flow tests such as tracer and flowmeter tests are conducted, present analytical challenges due to the pipe flow behavior that differs significantly from Darcian flow in porous media. This study addresses these challenges by employing the Brinkman equations, which combine the Navier-Stokes equations and Darcy’s law to create a unified model that integrates borehole and fracture flow. Fracture networks integrated with boreholes are constructed using fracture attributes obtained from borehole acoustic televiewer logs, and their permeabilities are calibrated by comparing simulated flows with measured data, enabling accurate reproduction of observed profiles and the development of a high-resolution 3D fracture network. The results indicate that groundwater flow is primarily controlled by a limited number of highly permeable fractures, but fracture connectivity, regardless of permeability, plays a crucial role in flow between boreholes. This enhanced method provides a robust framework for analyzing borehole-altered flow dynamics in fractured rocks and improves our understanding of complex fracture systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"657 ","pages":"Article 133125"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143696960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Weihan Liu , Xi Chen , Lichun Wang , Zhicai Zhang , Xiuqiang Liu , Tao Peng , Jia Chen , Jianzhi Dong
{"title":"The role of karstic soil-rock structures on subsurface stormflow dynamics in southwest China","authors":"Weihan Liu , Xi Chen , Lichun Wang , Zhicai Zhang , Xiuqiang Liu , Tao Peng , Jia Chen , Jianzhi Dong","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133126","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133126","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Subsurface stormflow is the main runoff-generating mechanism in most upland environments. However, it is challenging to delineate the functions of heterogeneous soil-rock structures (soils, gravels, and rock fractures) on subsurface stormflow dynamics in response to rainfall events. Here, three experimental columns were designed filled with soils and underlying limestone blocks and dolomite gravels. The water budget and subsurface stormflow characteristics were analyzed through detailed observations and numerical simulations. The results showed that: (1) Soil is a crucial factor in attenuating subsurface stormflow. Increasing the soil thickness from 20 cm to 85 cm reduced outflow by at least 30 %; (2) Soil-rock structures with high porosity increase evaporation loss from the epikarst. For the similar soil thickness (20–23 cm), the underlying gravels with high porosity (40 %) retained approximately 10 % more water for evaporation loss compared to limestone blocks; (3) Impacts of soil-rock structures on subsurface stormflow processes reverse as rainfall intensifies. The limestone blocks with rich fractures produced higher stormflow peaks when the rainfall amount was below a critical value. However, as rainfall intensity increased, the limited fractures restricted downward stormflow propagation, while the dolomite gravels produced a large active area and resulted in higher outflow peaks. The study highlights the significance of soil-rock structural heterogeneity in accurately simulating the subsurface stormflow dynamics under different rainfall conditions and provides valuable information for flood disaster prediction in karst areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"657 ","pages":"Article 133126"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143716289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
João Miguel Merces Bega, Davi Gasparini Fernandes Cunha
{"title":"Stream restoration strategies often designed to perform in baseflow may be ineffective in stormflow regarding nonpoint pollution abatement","authors":"João Miguel Merces Bega, Davi Gasparini Fernandes Cunha","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133122","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133122","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There is a significant need for studies focusing on restored streams under stormflow conditions in tropical areas to better understand whether stream restoration strategies have positive, neutral, or negative impacts on water quality as these hydrological regimes are often overlooked. Here, we evaluated the effects of structural in-situ restoration interventions (cross-vanes and riffles) on the water quality of an urban tropical stream (Southeastern Brazil) during rainfall events. Mass-volume [M(V)] curves and event mean concentrations (EMCs) of suspended solids and dissolved nutrients were compared between pre- and post-restoration periods. There were evidences of nonpoint source pollution in the studied stream regarding all the assessed water parameters in most of the monitored rainfall events. A substantial first flush of suspended solids was observed pre-restoration, a pattern not seen post-restoration likely due to hydromorphological changes in the stream channel. The EMCs measured post-restoration were either higher or similar to those recorded pre-restoration. While such interventions seemed to prevent the occurrence of the first flush for suspended solids, the added structures did not significantly reduce the overall downstream export of sediments and nutrients as evidenced by the EMCs. Therefore, it is essential to manage these structures specifically for solids removal and to align their functioning with processes that target the removal of specific nutrients. Restoration strategies should extend beyond the stream itself and encompass the entire watershed to achieve significant improvements in water quality. These insights are essential for guiding future tropical stream restoration projects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"657 ","pages":"Article 133122"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143683118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pengcheng Xu , Huanyu Yang , Dong Wang , Yuankun Wang , Qiang Wang , Xiaopei Ju , Vijay P. Singh , Miao Lu
{"title":"Unraveling the amplified role of urbanization on occurrence likelihood of precipitation extremes through nonstationary model in Huaihe River Basin, China","authors":"Pengcheng Xu , Huanyu Yang , Dong Wang , Yuankun Wang , Qiang Wang , Xiaopei Ju , Vijay P. Singh , Miao Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133137","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133137","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Under the combined influence of urbanization and climate change, the frequency and severity of precipitation extremes in the Huaihe River Basin of China (HRB) have intensified over recent decades. This underscores the importance of considering trend-induced nonstationarity in the risk analysis of rainfall extremes. This study utilized daily precipitation observations from 125 rural, suburban, and urban stations in the HRB to develop a nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV)-based model. The aim was to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of precipitation extremes (PEs) by integrating physical factors into distribution parameters as potential covariates. A risk amplification factor (RAF) was derived from comparing the recurrence levels between nonstationary and stationary GEV models to elucidate the amplified role of urbanization processes on PEs across different types of stations. Furthermore, for the stations suffering both the urbanization and climate change-induced nonstationarity, the singular impact of urbanization was isolated through the comparative analysis of RAF from <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>GEV</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>μ</mi><mo>/</mo><mi>σ</mi><mo>(</mo><mi>U</mi><mi>r</mi><mi>b</mi><mo>+</mo><mi>C</mi><mi>l</mi><mi>i</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></msub></math></span> and <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>GEV</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>μ</mi><mo>/</mo><mi>σ</mi><mo>(</mo><mi>C</mi><mi>l</mi><mi>i</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></msub></math></span>. The study found that all PEs exhibited increasing trends, with significantly increasing trends concentrated in the northern region of the HRB. Urbanization significantly influenced the trend-induced nonstationarity of <strong><em>Rx1day</em></strong> and <strong><em>Rx5day</em></strong> series, while its impact on the <strong><em>R95P</em></strong> and <strong><em>R25</em></strong> series was negligible in rural stations. Urbanization had the most substantial impact on <strong><em>Rx1day</em></strong> and <strong><em>Rx5day</em></strong>, with noticeable changes, while its influence on <strong><em>R25</em></strong> was minimal. Additionally, the changes in recurrence levels for suburban and urban areas were more pronounced than those in rural areas, particularly for <strong><em>Rx1day</em></strong>, <strong><em>Rx5day</em></strong>, and <strong><em>R95P</em></strong>.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"657 ","pages":"Article 133137"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143677758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}