Journal of Hydrology最新文献

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Daily and seasonal variations of CO2 and CH4 diffusive emissions in the largest urban lake of China 中国最大城市湖泊CO2和CH4扩散排放的日和季节变化
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学
Journal of Hydrology Pub Date : 2025-04-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133427
Liuqing Zhang , Y. Jun Xu , Siyue Li
{"title":"Daily and seasonal variations of CO2 and CH4 diffusive emissions in the largest urban lake of China","authors":"Liuqing Zhang ,&nbsp;Y. Jun Xu ,&nbsp;Siyue Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133427","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133427","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Lakes are an important source of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) and methane (CH<sub>4</sub>), but current research is still fragmented and overlooks daily and seasonal variability of the greenhouse gas emissions in urban lakes. In this study, we conducted high-resolution field measurements on CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> diffusion during the daytime over three seasons in the largest eutrophic urban lake in China. The lake showed a clear daily sink-source shifting of CO<sub>2</sub> in the autumn and summer days, but acted as a source of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> in the spring days. Strong declining trends of partial pressure of CO<sub>2</sub> (<em>p</em>CO<sub>2</sub>) and flux (FCO<sub>2</sub>) from morning to afternoon were observed across different seasons. Specially, CO<sub>2</sub> measurements at 11:00–13:00 in autumn and spring and at 8:30–9:30 in summer had the least deviation to the daily means. Unlike with CO<sub>2</sub>, the lake served as an important source of atmospheric CH<sub>4</sub> throughout the study period. CH<sub>4</sub> fluxes were higher in the morning than in the afternoon. The peak flux was typically observed in two-time intervals: 8:00–11:00 in the autumn and spring, and 15:00–19:00 in the summer. Relationships between declining rates of daily <em>p</em>CO<sub>2</sub> and FCO<sub>2</sub> and ambient factors revealed that water temperature, dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll <em>a</em> had a great potential for predicting daily variation in lake CO<sub>2</sub> diffusive fluxes. Ammonia-nitrogen seemed to have played a role in influencing the daily fluctuation of CH<sub>4</sub> fluxes. The study reveals that urbanization and eutrophication amplify the daily variability in CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> emission fluxes from urban lakes, while they also introduce additional uncertainties when single-timepoint sampling approach is employed. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating urban lakes and diel carbon dynamics for accurately estimating the carbon budget of lacustrine ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"660 ","pages":"Article 133427"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143903812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Calibration of WinSLAMM to stormwater volume and pollutant mass flux data in Ohio, USA: Informing pollutant loads in untreated stormwater from various urban land uses 美国俄亥俄州的雨水量和污染物质量通量数据的winslam校准:告知来自不同城市土地利用的未经处理的雨水中的污染物负荷
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学
Journal of Hydrology Pub Date : 2025-04-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133383
Ian M. Simpson , Ryan J. Winston , Jay D. Dorsey
{"title":"Calibration of WinSLAMM to stormwater volume and pollutant mass flux data in Ohio, USA: Informing pollutant loads in untreated stormwater from various urban land uses","authors":"Ian M. Simpson ,&nbsp;Ryan J. Winston ,&nbsp;Jay D. Dorsey","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133383","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133383","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Runoff hydrologic and water quality models are often utilized to inform pollutant load reductions and guide stormwater management since field-based studies are limited by time, money, equipment failures, and the inability to extrapolate to future climate scenarios. Many empirically based models, such as the Source Loading and Management Model for Windows (WinSLAMM), are used without calibration, thus uncertainty exists as to whether they accurately predict untreated stormwater characteristics in a watershed of interest. Inappropriate use and implementation of such models can lead to over- or under- design of stormwater control measures, reduced land for development, increased cost to developers, and unreasonably set regulations such as total maximum daily loads. Thirteen watersheds representing a variety of urban land use and land covers were modeled in WinSLAMM, calibrated to field collected hydrologic and water quality data, and compared against those data to understand if WinSLAMM is a viable tool to guide stormwater management. Results showed that the Small Storm Hydrology method utilized in WinSLAMM produced suitable model results for runoff volume prediction when watersheds were more than 45% impervious. Despite attempting a variety of water quality calibration techniques, pollutant concentrations were almost always overestimated by WinSLAMM, ultimately resulting in overestimation of annual pollutant loads. Results suggest that empirical models created with decades old data may no longer be useful for present day and future water quality scenarios. This may require WinSLAMM and other empirical tools to be consistently updated with source data and to amend input parameters such as regionalization schemes and rainfall/snowfall characteristics (intensity, dry time, duration, and minimum inter-event time) as the climate changes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"660 ","pages":"Article 133383"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143924363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modeling the cumulative impact of minor impoundments on watershed hydrology: Enhancements to the Xin’anjiang model 小水库对流域水文累积影响的模拟:对新安江模型的改进
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学
Journal of Hydrology Pub Date : 2025-04-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133399
Yiwen Wang , Weifeng Liu , Feilin Zhu , Bin Xu , Weiyu Li , Jianjie Tong , Ping-an Zhong
{"title":"Modeling the cumulative impact of minor impoundments on watershed hydrology: Enhancements to the Xin’anjiang model","authors":"Yiwen Wang ,&nbsp;Weifeng Liu ,&nbsp;Feilin Zhu ,&nbsp;Bin Xu ,&nbsp;Weiyu Li ,&nbsp;Jianjie Tong ,&nbsp;Ping-an Zhong","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133399","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133399","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Research on the mechanistic influence of minor impoundments on runoff generation and watershed convergence, along with improved simulation methods, is crucial for enhancing flood forecasting precision. This study classifies minor impoundments into three types—single-reservoir, cascaded, and parallel—and models their cumulative impact on a watershed. A novel multi-bottom sills graded weir flow pattern (MBSP) is introduced, leading to a new storage-and-discharge equation, which is integrated into the Xin’anjiang (XAJ) model to create the modified Xin’anjiang (CM-XAJ) model. The CM-XAJ model was evaluated using data from 13 flood events, showing significant performance improvements: Mean Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (MNS) increased by 0.27 and 0.40 during calibration and validation, peak time error (M<sub>Etp</sub>) reduced by 0.9 and 0.7 h, and flood volume (Q<sub>v</sub>) and peak pass rates (Q<sub>p</sub>) improved by 30 % and 66.7 %. The CM-XAJ model performs particularly well at the start of the flood season or after prolonged dry spells but is less effective during later stages or for multi-peak events. While the model shows promise, its performance decreases for larger floods, suggesting opportunities for future refinement.</div><div><em>The code will be available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request</em>.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"660 ","pages":"Article 133399"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143912517","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Model based quantification of salinization dynamics under changing hydrological conditions in the Volturno River (Italy) coastal aquifer Volturno河(意大利)沿海含水层变化水文条件下盐渍化动态的基于模型的量化
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学
Journal of Hydrology Pub Date : 2025-04-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133395
Mattia Gaiolini , Abraham Ofori , Matteo Postacchini , Micòl Mastrocicco , Nicolò Colombani
{"title":"Model based quantification of salinization dynamics under changing hydrological conditions in the Volturno River (Italy) coastal aquifer","authors":"Mattia Gaiolini ,&nbsp;Abraham Ofori ,&nbsp;Matteo Postacchini ,&nbsp;Micòl Mastrocicco ,&nbsp;Nicolò Colombani","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133395","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133395","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This work presents a semi-coupled modelling approach to study salinization dynamics in the Volturno River coastal aquifer (Italy), distinguishing among different salinization mechanisms. The area is of particular interest, given its location in the Mediterranean region, a climate change hot-spot. A 1D HEC-RAS numerical model was built up and run for a decade (2010–2020) to quantify the areal extent and timing of salinization events due to seawater encroachment within the Volturno River mouth. The results were used as input in a 3D SEAWAT model that incorporated salinity variations on a monthly basis for the same period. The SEAWAT model was downscaled from a large calibrated MODFLOW model of the whole Campania region. Both national and worldwide databases were used to constrain the models. The model was then compared with 9 high resolution vertical profiles of porewater salinity obtained using a continuous coring sediment sampler, providing good model performance indicators (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.867, NSE = 0.808, and RMSE = 3.926 g/L). Results highlight an increasing groundwater salinization pattern due to intrusion from the Volturno riverbed. The classical mechanism of seawater wedge intrusion from the coastline was minimal, while large inland portions of the model domain were characterized by high salinity (up to 75 g/l) due to remnant paleo seawater trapped into peaty and silty-clay aquitards. This physically-based modelling approach could be replicated in any coastal porous aquifer (if hydrological and hydrogeological datasets are available) to identify and quantify the salinization mechanisms and to help water managers to implement tailored solutions in the most affected areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"660 ","pages":"Article 133395"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143891283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Crop conversion as a strategy for enhancing water efficiency and nutrient management under climate change 作物转种作为气候变化下提高用水效率和养分管理的战略
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学
Journal of Hydrology Pub Date : 2025-04-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133415
Guan-Zhou Lin, Li-Chi Chiang
{"title":"Crop conversion as a strategy for enhancing water efficiency and nutrient management under climate change","authors":"Guan-Zhou Lin,&nbsp;Li-Chi Chiang","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133415","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133415","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global climate change poses significant challenges to water resource allocation and food production. This study focuses on the Fengshan River basin in northern Taiwan, where changing rainfall patterns pose a risk to water availability and ecosystem services. High water-demand crops, particularly rice and tea, face the risk of declining yields and higher nutrient runoff under the RCP2.6L and RCP8.5L scenarios. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and entropy-weighted agro-environmental indicators, this study examines the impacts of climate change on crop water footprints and nutrient use efficiency. The results indicate that converting rice and tea fields to sweet potatoes or soybeans significantly reduces water consumption and improves nutrient efficiency, thereby enhancing overall agro-environmental sustainability under the RCP2.6L and RCP8.5L scenarios. Converting 30 % of rice and tea fields to soybeans leads to substantial improvements, reducing the blue water footprint by up to 30 % and 25 % and the green water footprint by 16 % and 33 % under RCP2.6L and RCP8.5L, respectively. Conversion to both sweet potatoes and soybeans significantly increases nutrient use efficiency, with soybeans achieving the greatest gains: nitrogen use efficiency increases by 72 % and 68 %, and phosphorus use efficiency by 197 % and 188 % under RCP2.6L and RCP8.5L, respectively. This crop conversion strategy not only helps mitigate climate change but also supports sustainable agricultural development. By providing targeted management recommendations for regions with high water demand, this study offers a framework for optimizing crop production and resource allocation in the face of global climate challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"660 ","pages":"Article 133415"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143903932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inter-Basin groundwater flow in West-Central Florida
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学
Journal of Hydrology Pub Date : 2025-04-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133423
Sally Elrashedy , Yu Zhang , Jeffrey S. Geurink , Kshitij Parajuli , Hui Wang , Dingbao Wang
{"title":"Inter-Basin groundwater flow in West-Central Florida","authors":"Sally Elrashedy ,&nbsp;Yu Zhang ,&nbsp;Jeffrey S. Geurink ,&nbsp;Kshitij Parajuli ,&nbsp;Hui Wang ,&nbsp;Dingbao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133423","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133423","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The mean annual values of inter-basin groundwater flow (IGF) for 172 watersheds in west-central Florida were estimated using the Integrated Northern Tampa Bay (INTB) model, which is an application of the Integrated Hydrologic Model dynamically coupling HSPF and MODFLOW. The estimated IGF for the scenario without human fluxes shows spatial heterogeneity in the model domain ranging from −1291 mm/year to 4808 mm/year, and the variability of IGF decreases with increasing spatial scales. A region with gaining IGF is defined as groundwater importer and a region with losing IGF is defined as a groundwater exporter. The characteristics of IGF are dominated by hydrogeology: 1) The subregion with unconfined Upper Floridan Aquifer (UFA), where runoff essentially occurs through the groundwater system by point discharge through springs and by diffuse discharge, serves as a groundwater importer; 2) The subregions with confined UFA are dominated by IGF exporters, particularly the subregion with large local recharge; and 3) Both IGF importers and exporters exist in the subregion with semi-confined UFA, but the watersheds near the Hillsborough River tend to be IGF importers. IGF plays a major role in the mean annual water balance at the watershed scale by modulating the available water for partitioning. The mean annual precipitation in the study watersheds varies from 1180 to 1495 mm/year, while the available water has a wider range from 80 to 6198 mm/year. Moreover, the climate aridity index ranges from 0.94 to 1.18, but the watershed aridity index exhibits enhanced variability, ranging from 0.23 to 2.07, due to existence of IGF. Human activities are also found to affect available water directly since human flux is a component of available water and indirectly since IGF is affected by human flux, which counteracts the impact of groundwater pumping on available water in watersheds.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"660 ","pages":"Article 133423"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143943460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Memory character and predictive period of soil moisture in the root-zone and along hillslope 根区及坡面土壤水分的记忆特征及预测期
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学
Journal of Hydrology Pub Date : 2025-04-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133428
Jun Zhang , Zi Wu , Yong Li , Chao Qin , Junfang Cui
{"title":"Memory character and predictive period of soil moisture in the root-zone and along hillslope","authors":"Jun Zhang ,&nbsp;Zi Wu ,&nbsp;Yong Li ,&nbsp;Chao Qin ,&nbsp;Junfang Cui","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133428","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133428","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Soil moisture plays a crucial role in hydrology, influencing interactions between land and surface, hydrological processes, flood forecasting, and soil degradation. Its behavior varies over different timescales, but most research to date has concentrated on large-scale or long-term data. There is a notable gap in the understanding of soil moisture memory characteristics and its predictive periods, especially at smaller scales like the root zone and hillslopes. This research aims to address this gap by using power spectrum analysis to investigate long-term memory (LTM) characteristics and second-order detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA-2) to assess predictive periods. Data were gathered from greenhouse experiments monitoring soil moisture during the full growth cycle of tomato plants, as well as from field measurements on hillslopes. Findings indicate that the soil moisture predictive period increased from the first (T<sub>s</sub>) to the third (T<sub>f</sub>) growth stages. Additionally, vegetated slopes showed stronger memory of soil moisture from May to October compared to bare slopes. This study offers essential insights for improving irrigation planning, drought management, and water resource strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"660 ","pages":"Article 133428"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143891284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Improving soil water, heat and salt transport simulation under freezing conditions considering salt crystallization and its effect on hydrothermal parameters 考虑盐结晶及水热参数影响的冻土条件下土壤水、热、盐运移模拟改进
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学
Journal of Hydrology Pub Date : 2025-04-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133402
Dongmei Ruan , Jianmin Bian , Yu Wang , Zhiqi Gu , Jesus Horacio Hernandez Anguiano
{"title":"Improving soil water, heat and salt transport simulation under freezing conditions considering salt crystallization and its effect on hydrothermal parameters","authors":"Dongmei Ruan ,&nbsp;Jianmin Bian ,&nbsp;Yu Wang ,&nbsp;Zhiqi Gu ,&nbsp;Jesus Horacio Hernandez Anguiano","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133402","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133402","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Moisture and solute transport induced by freezing are critical for assessing salinity outbreaks and runoff during the spring thaw in cold climates. Conventional models often neglect the effects of initial freezing-temperature (IFT) depression and salt crystallization on the coupled water-heat-salt transport and hydrothermal parameters. This study developed a novel coupled water–heat–salt transport model for seasonally frozen saline soils. A dynamic IFT function was proposed, accounting for the interactive effects of water and salt content. A permeability function incorporating the synergistic impedance of ice and salt crystals was also introduced. The model further integrates salt crystallization and latent heat release effects into the coupled transport framework. The model was implemented in COMSOL Multiphysics and validated against laboratory column experiments. Results show that the model accurately simulates the coupling mechanism between IFT depression, phase transitions, and coupled migration processes. The MRE for soil moisture and salinity decreased by 6.56 % and 2.34 %, respectively, and the RRMSE decreased by 8.64 % and 4.58 %, significantly improving simulation accuracy. Key phenomena such as unfrozen water retention, salt accumulation, and crystallization mass (15–19 kg/m<sup>3</sup>) were captured by the model. It revealed the regulatory effect of IFT depression on water–salt redistribution. Ice and salt crystal reduced the permeability by 3–6 orders of magnitude. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated the model’s adaptability and tunability for various soil types and environmental conditions. The model exhibited strong parameter flexibility, numerical stability, and visualization capacity, offering technical tools for water resource management and sustainable agriculture in cold-region salinized soils.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"660 ","pages":"Article 133402"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143899343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Suspended sediment load under future climate in headwater basins of the Northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains 未来气候条件下天山北坡源区悬沙负荷研究
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学
Journal of Hydrology Pub Date : 2025-04-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133429
Li He , Qiuhong Tang , Dong Chen , Qiange Xue , Yuanyuan Zhou , Ximen Xu , Xingcai Liu , Nigel George Wright
{"title":"Suspended sediment load under future climate in headwater basins of the Northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains","authors":"Li He ,&nbsp;Qiuhong Tang ,&nbsp;Dong Chen ,&nbsp;Qiange Xue ,&nbsp;Yuanyuan Zhou ,&nbsp;Ximen Xu ,&nbsp;Xingcai Liu ,&nbsp;Nigel George Wright","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133429","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133429","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>It has been reported that fluvial sediment load from High Mountain Asia may increase with increasing temperature and precipitation. However, responses between suspended sediment load on the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains (NSTM) and climate variation and its future projections remain uncertain. In this study, measured water and suspended sediment load at eight hydrology stations during 1961–2011 were collected. The relation between suspended sediment load and climate variation at each river basin was investigated. A climate elasticity model was then applied to assess variation of suspended sediment load from these eight headwater basins in the coming decades (by 2050) under three climate scenarios. The analysis shows that water and suspended sediment load of all these eight headwater basins increased with the increase in precipitation and temperature during 1961–2011, and the mean increase rate in suspended sediment load during 1990–2011 is seven times that of runoff. The area-weighted mean value of sensitive coefficient between suspended sediment load to temperature change is 0.89 ± 1.26 %/°C (mean ± SE, SE is Standard Error) and that to precipitation change is 4.27 ± 2.88 (mean ± SE), suggesting an increase in the runoff and suspended sediment load with warmer and wetter climate. The sensitive parameter between suspended sediment load varies considerably among rivers, with greater sensitivity to temperature variation but less to precipitation variation in glacier-rich basins compared to glacier-poor basins. The estimation shows that annual suspended sediment load of these eight river basins could increase by one to two times the 1990–2011 average under future climate change, threatening reservoir and channel functions and jeopardizing the sustainability of water supplies in the NSTM.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"660 ","pages":"Article 133429"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143912527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Study on the impact of multi-source uncertainty on the operation of inter-basin water transfer projects and adaptive response strategies 多源不确定性对跨流域调水工程运行的影响及适应性响应策略研究
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学
Journal of Hydrology Pub Date : 2025-04-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133375
Yuchen Zhang , Wenhua Zhou , Jianan Wang , Xiaoling Su , Lianzhou Wu
{"title":"Study on the impact of multi-source uncertainty on the operation of inter-basin water transfer projects and adaptive response strategies","authors":"Yuchen Zhang ,&nbsp;Wenhua Zhou ,&nbsp;Jianan Wang ,&nbsp;Xiaoling Su ,&nbsp;Lianzhou Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133375","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133375","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Joint adaptive regulation of water source areas under multi-source uncertainties is key to the efficient operation of inter-basin water transfer projects (IBWTPs). A novel model to quantify the impacts and countermeasures of IBWTPs operations under multi-uncertainty scenarios, was proposed to address the problem of adaptive regulation. This paper focused on the water source area reservoir group of the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Valley Water Diversion Project (HTWDP). Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and three-dimensional Copula functions were used to construct multi-uncertainty scenarios and to quantify the impacts of uncertainties on water resource transfer and power generation during reservoir operations. Additionally, a framework of adaptive simulation–optimization operation model based on multi-uncertainties and hedging rules (AOMU) was established to balance multi objectives of water resource transfer, power generation, and energy consumption under adverse inflow conditions. The results showed (1) significant correlations among inflow, adjustable water volume, and the water resource demand of the HTWDP, allowing the construction of multi-uncertainty scenarios, and (2) maintenance of an average annual water resource transfer volume at 1.35 to 1.52 billion m<sup>3</sup>, with a 9.2% increase, under multi-source uncertainties. However, the average energy consumption increased by 41.1%, while the average power generation decreased by 5.2%. (3) After optimization, a 14% reduction in total energy consumption and a 2.76% increase in power generation were achieved, while the annual water transfer volume was maintained over 1.3 billion m<sup>3</sup> under adverse conditions. This paper provided valuable insight for the effective management of uncertainty risks of IBWTPs while balancing historical and future applicability, and for the optimization of water resource transfers and distribution schemes in the source area.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"660 ","pages":"Article 133375"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143886909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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