Journal of Hydrology最新文献

{"title":"Changes in vegetation phenology and its response to different layers of soil moisture in the dry zone of Central Asia, 1982–2022","authors":"Ruikang Tian ,&nbsp;Jianhao Li ,&nbsp;Jianghua Zheng ,&nbsp;Liang Liu ,&nbsp;Wanqiang Han ,&nbsp;Yujia Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132314","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132314","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The intensification of global temperature rise has exacerbated the hydric imbalance in Central Asia, profoundly affecting the dynamics of soil moisture in the region and consequently posing a significant threat to vegetation growth and ecosystem functioning. However, the impacts of soil moisture and soil drought at varying depths on vegetation phenology remain to be thoroughly explored. This study, based on multi-layer soil moisture (SM) and standardized soil moisture index (SSMI) data from 1982 to 2022, analyzes the influence of multi-layer seasonal soil moisture on vegetation phenology and investigates the optimal response time of vegetation phenology to multi-layer soil drought. The multi-layer SM and SSMI in the arid regions of Central Asia show an overall declining trend. In spring, the positive correlation between SM at the 0–7 cm layer and the start of the growing season (SOS) is the most significant. During autumn, the positive correlation between SM at the 7–28 cm layer and the end of the growing season (EOS) is the most prominent. The length of the growing season (LOS) generally exhibits a negative correlation with SM in spring, summer, and autumn, with the greatest impact of summer SM at the 28–100 cm layer. The optimal response time of SOS, EOS, and LOS to drought in the 0–7 cm, 7–28 cm, and 28–100 cm soil layers is 1–3 months, while in the 100–289 cm soil layer, the optimal response time is 12–24 months. This study elucidates the effects of soil moisture at different soil depths on vegetation phenology and their optimal response times to drought in the arid regions of Central Asia, providing critical insights for vegetation restoration, water resource management, and land use optimization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"646 ","pages":"Article 132314"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142701114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Structural and dynamic characteristics of horseshoe vortex systems in front of rigid vegetation inclined upstream under conditions of overland flow","authors":"Feng Li ,&nbsp;Huilan Zhang ,&nbsp;Fangzheng Gu ,&nbsp;Shaoqin Xia ,&nbsp;Yuan He ,&nbsp;Linghan Wang ,&nbsp;Di Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132358","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132358","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Inclined angle significantly impacts horseshoe vortex (HV) system and subsequent flow events upstream of vegetation stems, which are crucial for understanding of erosion mechanisms and geodynamics. Flume experiments were conducted to investigate dynamic characteristics of horseshoe vortex (HV) system upstream of inclined rigid vegetation stems under shallow overland flow conditions. Five inclination angles (10°, 20°, 30°, 40°, 50°) were tested alongside a vertical column (0°) across four low Reynolds number conditions (<em>Re_D</em> = 2995–4639). Using high-precision particle image velocimetry (PIV) system, we measured the flow field in upstream symmetry plane of the cylinder. Then time-averaged primary HV features were analyzed in terms of the location, radius, vorticity, swirling strength, flow direction and vertical velocity. The increasing inclination angle weakens the formation of the HV system. This is evident in the decrease of vorticity and swirling strength, as well as the gradual diffusion and eventual rupture of the HV system. In the horizontal direction, the primary HV gradually moves away from the cylinder, with minimal vertical impact. The radius of the main HV is positively correlated with the tilt angle, while vorticity and rotation intensity are negatively correlated. We also examined the time-resolved characteristics of the velocity components. The probability density functions (PDFs) of streamwise and vertical velocity components show asymmetric double peaks, indicating two high-frequency events: backflow and downwelling. Linear random estimation revealed that the backflow event is driven by a high-momentum counter current passing through the primary HV, which is mainly dominated by a backflow mode, while the downwelling event arises from low-momentum fluid that cannot penetrate the HV, dominated by a zero-flow mode. These two modes exhibited minimum and maximum time percentages within the current time range, highlighting erosion dynamics from the perspectives of flow event frequency and momentum theory.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"647 ","pages":"Article 132358"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142696335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimizing transient monitoring of river streamflow by a highly predictive model utilizing Ensemble learning models and Multi algorithms","authors":"Mojtaba Poursaeid","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132373","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132373","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global warming and population growth have significantly intensified the challenges in securing drinking water supplies. This study investigates transient instabilities of streamflow using ensemble machine learning (EML) and machine learning (ML) methodologies on the South Platte river in the United States. The United States Geological Survey’s online database was utilized to obtain the primary dataset. Several technical approaches were employed for preprocessing the initial dataset: cleaning outlier data, clean missing data, and 10 fold cross-validation. Nonlinear programming, genetic algorithm, least square, linear programming, gradient descent, particle swarm optimization, Nelder Mead, and simulated annealing were employed algorithms to develop eight-weighted EML models. The results showed that the ensemble learning approach and the aggregation of weak learners by mentioned algorithms have been significantly successful. Particularly, the nonlinear programming-EML (NLP-EML) outperformed others, achieving the highest prediction accuracy with an R² coefficient equal to 0.97. The probability density function showed that NLP-EML was the most reliable model. Overall, the findings highlight the superior performance and reliability of EML approaches in hydrological modeling, offering practical guidance to experts on the creation of robust ensemble models for improved prediction accuracy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"647 ","pages":"Article 132373"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142696485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global thresholds for the climate-driven effects of vegetation restoration on runoff and soil erosion","authors":"Xi Lin ,&nbsp;Shengwei Zhang ,&nbsp;Xingyu Zhao ,&nbsp;Ruishen Li ,&nbsp;Shuai Wang ,&nbsp;Lin Yang ,&nbsp;Xinghui Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132374","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132374","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Runoff generation is intimately related to topography, climate, and vegetation. However, the combined impacts of different vegetation restorations on runoff under global climate change have not been quantitatively assessed. When climate exceeds specific thresholds, the inhibitory effect of vegetation restoration on runoff may diminish. Here, we collected 771 observations for <em>meta</em>-analysis and used segmented regression to determine the global threshold response of vegetation restoration for climate-related variables on runoff and soil erosion. We found the effect of vegetation restoration in inhibiting soil erosion and runoff increased when MAP (mean annual precipitation) exceeded the thresholds of about 331 mm and 540 mm, respectively. Furthermore, at rainfall intensity above the threshold of 48 mm/h, the effect of vegetation restoration on erosion control increases. Comprehensive analysis indicates that grassland revegetation is more successful in decreasing of runoff and soil erosion in the North Temperate Zone. Temperature and precipitation directly or indirectly influenced the effects of shrubland runoff reduction, and the relationship varied with changes in temperature and precipitation. Our findings contribute to guiding regional governments and decision makers in developing and implementing rational vegetation restoration measures for sustainable water resource management in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"647 ","pages":"Article 132374"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142696365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How do social management systems and urbanization influence the spatio-temporal characteristics of urban flood risk? A comparison between Guangzhou and Hong Kong, China","authors":"Tao Xu ,&nbsp;Xiaodie Zhang ,&nbsp;Fan Liu ,&nbsp;Yaolong Zhao ,&nbsp;Entong Ke","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132335","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132335","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Previous studies have shown that there are some differences in the pattern and evolution of floods within urban agglomerations. The differences reflect the variations in the geographical environment and the level of urban governance. However, in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), which has different social systems, the differences in urban flood between mainland cities and external cities are more significant. Concerning the causes of urban floods, the rainfall amounts are approximately equivalent in each region within the GBA, indicating that the external causes are mostly similar. Consequently, this study examines the effects of urbanization and flood management measures on urban floods under different social systems from the perspective of internal causes, taking Guangzhou and Hong Kong as examples. The results indicate that: (1) The flood degree in Guangzhou continues to increase, with the flood points increasing from 15 to 237, and the high-density areas expanding from a single-core to multi-core. In contrast, flood points in Hong Kong decreased from 136 to 17, and the high-density areas were concentrated in strips and gradually dispersed. (2) The urbanization process of Guangzhou fluctuates considerably, with urban expansion intensity (UEI) of 17.32, 4.15, and 8.82. Hong Kong remains stable, with a UEI of around 4.0 in each period. The percent of landscape (PLAND) and largest patch index (LPI) of impervious surfaces have the highest impact on urban flood and showed a significant positive correlation. However, The effect of patch density (PD) on urban flood changes from a positive to a negative correlation (from 0.151 to −0.169). (3) Hong Kong has formulated systematic flood control measures from the aspects of laws and regulations, territorial planning, engineering design, etc., and has effectively reduced the occurrence of flooding incidents using rainwater interception, underground flood storage, and pipe widening. This study clearly illustrated the spatio-temporal differences of urban flood within urban agglomeration and the key factors of urban management level and reviewed the flood risk management strategies of Guangzhou and Hong Kong, which have far-reaching significance for the mainland cities to learn from their experiences and improve their flood management strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"647 ","pages":"Article 132335"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142696353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enhancing hydraulic conductivity field characterization through integration of hydraulic head and tracer data using multi-modal neural network models","authors":"Chaoqi Wang,&nbsp;Zhi Dou,&nbsp;Yan Zhu,&nbsp;Chao Zhuang,&nbsp;Ze Yang,&nbsp;Zhihan Zou","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132295","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132295","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Characterizing heterogeneous conductivity field is essential for effective groundwater management and controlling contaminant events. The characterization method is currently advancing towards two promising directions: (1) integration of various types of data, such as hydraulic head (<em>H</em>) and tracer concentration (<em>C</em>) data; (2) usage of machine learning methods of AI area. However, no machine learning model has been proposed to integrate <em>H</em> and <em>C</em> data for aquifer characterization effectively. The two data types have different forms: <em>H</em> data being spatial and <em>C</em> data being temporal. This discrepancy creates challenges for effective integration.</div><div>We developed three machine learning models—HydroCNN, HC-Net1, and HC-Net2. The HydroCNN model could effectively predict hydraulic conductivity (<em>K</em>) fields from <em>H</em> data alone and thus is used as the baseline for evaluating the following models. HC-Net1 and HC-Net2 models are multi-modal neural network models with different architectures. These multi-modal architectures incorporate both convolutional neural network and fully connected neural network modules, designed to integrate <em>H</em> and <em>C</em> data to enhance characterization accuracy. Results indicate that HC-Net2 significantly outperforms the other models, highlighting its capability to leverage the strengths of both data types effectively. Notably, the HC-Net2 model’s improvement is most significant in scenarios where models relying solely on <em>H</em> data perform poorly.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"647 ","pages":"Article 132295"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142701127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Micrometeorological drivers affecting the variability of CO2 uptake in the Himalayan Oak and Pine dominated ecosystems: An assessment of causal relationships","authors":"Leena Khadke ,&nbsp;Sandipan Mukherjee ,&nbsp;Subimal Ghosh","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132333","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132333","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Micrometeorological variability significantly impacts the structures, functions, and dynamics of ecosystems. However, the assessment of feedback and causal relationships among microclimatic drivers and various ecosystems in the Himalayan region is rarely evaluated. Here, we studied the micrometeorological drivers controlling the variability in the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of Himalayan Oak (Banj-Oak/<em>Quercus leucotrichophora</em>) and Pine (Chir-Pine/<em>Pinus roxburghii</em>) dominated ecosystems, as NEE is an indicator of ecosystem functioning. We used half-hourly eddy covariance flux data of CO₂ fluxes from two sites established over Pine and Oak dominated ecosystems in Uttarakhand, India. We conducted the analysis with the information theory-based Temporal Information Partitioning Networks (TIPNets) approach to generate weekly process networks. TIPNets represent directed lag-structured causal graphs to identify the causal relationships and capture the temporal association among the variables. Our analysis aimed to capture fluctuations in variables with up to 6 h of memory. Based on the data availability, we generated the weekly networks at both the sites for the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons of 2016 and 2017. In both ecosystems, the sub-daily scale variations among the micrometeorological variables are responsible for the fluctuations in NEE. The Pine ecosystem is found to be more sensitive to changes in air temperature (TA) and uptakes more CO₂ as compared to the Oak ecosystem throughout the study period. The transfer entropy links show that the NEE of the Oak ecosystem is moisture-driven (precipitation and relative humidity), while the Pine ecosystem is heat-driven (TA and net solar radiation) in both seasons. The influence of precipitation is not observed within a short memory of 6 h in the Pine ecosystem. This is because lesser fine roots take time to show the precipitation signature on NEE through infiltration, soil moisture, and root water uptake, compared to Oak. However, the impacts of moisture stress are evident in the network structure of both ecosystems, with more causal links observed in the network during dry periods compared to wet periods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"647 ","pages":"Article 132333"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142696360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Numerical simulations of tidal beach seawater-groundwater circulations using dimensionless method","authors":"Wei Wang ,&nbsp;Laitong Cui ,&nbsp;Xiaolong Geng ,&nbsp;Manhua Luo ,&nbsp;Shengchao Yu ,&nbsp;Zhenyan Wang ,&nbsp;Qianqian Wang ,&nbsp;Hailong Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132372","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132372","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tidally driven seawater-groundwater circulation in subterranean estuary is influenced by various factors, making it difficult to quantify. Our previous study developed a dimensionless model for numerical simulations, wherein the model parameters were non-dimensionalized. Although the model can be reasonably transformed to apply to various dimensionalized beach domains with slopes ranging from 3.16 % to 31.6 %, the model was limited by a narrow applicable range of the permeability parameter (<em>K</em>) values, excluding very permeable or less permeable beaches (i.e., the hydraulic conductivity <em>K</em> &gt; 10^-3 m/s or &lt; 10^-4 m/s). In this study, we expanded both the scale and the range of parameter values of the dimensionless model to encompass a broader spectrum of <em>K</em> values, from 10^-5 to 10^-2 m/s. Beyond our prior findings, we revealed that at a high hydraulic conductivity of approximately 10^-2 m/s, the salinity distribution within the beach aquifer varies significantly with tides. The area of the upper saline plume (USP) diminishes and eventually disappears as the hydraulic conductivity and slope of the beach aquifer increase. After transforming the dimensionless exchange flows into their dimensionalized counterparts, the dimensional results aligned closely with those transformed from numerical simulations using dimensionless models. Additionally, we introduced nomographs for submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) estimations based on beach slope, hydraulic conductivity, tidal amplitude and period. The modeling results presented can be generalized to beach aquifers with a wide range of hydraulic and tidal properties.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"646 ","pages":"Article 132372"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142701151","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Location, location, location – Considering relative catchment location to understand subsurface losses","authors":"Melike Kiraz-Safari ,&nbsp;Gemma Coxon ,&nbsp;Mostaquimur Rahman ,&nbsp;Thorsten Wagener","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132328","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132328","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The analysis of large samples of hydrologic catchments is regularly used to gain understanding of hydrologic variability and controlling processes. Several studies have pointed towards the problem that available catchment descriptors (such as mean topographic slope or average subsurface properties) are insufficient to capture hydrologically relevant properties. Here, we test the assumption that indicators of catchment location, i.e. the relative properties of catchments in relation to their surrounding neighbours, can provide additional information to reduce this problem. We test this idea in the context of Great Britain for a widely discussed problem, that of catchment water balance errors due to subsurface losses. We focus on three different locational aspects (i.e. location to coast, location within a wider basin and location to a neighboring catchment), utilizing only basic and widely available geological and topographical information to make the result useful for large sample hydrology. To achieve this, we introduce the Strahler Sequence Index to define catchment location within the wider river basin. Our results imply that location, geology and topography combine to define the differences of water balances of catchments in Great Britain compared to what we would expect from their climatic estimation alone. However, the given sample size limited our ability to derive robust conclusions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"646 ","pages":"Article 132328"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142701146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How to stop groundwater drawdown in North China Plain? Combining agricultural management strategies and climate change","authors":"Junji Ou ,&nbsp;Beibei Ding ,&nbsp;Puyu Feng ,&nbsp;Yong Chen ,&nbsp;Lili Yu ,&nbsp;De Li Liu ,&nbsp;Raghavan Srinivasan ,&nbsp;Xueliang Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132352","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132352","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The global crisis of groundwater depletion is becoming a challenge in irrigation agriculture. How to optimize the agricultural system amidst climate change is crucial for groundwater and food security around the world. In this study, the multiple cropping index (MCI) reducing strategy and irrigation-limiting strategy were assessed using the SWAT-GW model in the piedmont plain of the Taihang Mountains of North China Plain (NCP). Model calibration and validation were conducted using field data for spring maize (SPM) with a target NRMSE below 25%, alongside previously calibrated parameters for winter wheat (WW), summer maize (SUM), evapotranspiration, and groundwater levels. Historical simulations (1993–2012) indicated that a two-year-three-crop cropping system (WW-SUM → SPM) with 82 mm of irrigation quota (3H2Y_O, “double-reducing strategy”) maintained shallow groundwater levels while accepting a 27% yield reduction. Future simulation (2030–2049) suggest that increased groundwater recharge due to climate change might allow shallow groundwater balance through the irrigation-limiting strategy alone (“single-reducing strategy”), with crop yields expected to rise by 5.8%–6.9% for wheat and 1.2%–2.3% for maize. By 2070–2089, enhanced precipitation could lead to sufficient groundwater recharge, enabling equilibrium under a double-cropping system (WW-SUM) with full irrigation scheme (“non-reducing strategy”) in most areas. Wheat yields may increase by 9.7%–10.5%, but maize yields could fall by 1.1%–10.9%. This study could provide detailed data for groundwater recovery planning in China’s grain-producing regions, and offer a methodological framework for the trade-off between water scarcity and food security for other over-exploited groundwater areas worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"647 ","pages":"Article 132352"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142700469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}