Journal of Hydrology最新文献

{"title":"Dynamic compensation operating rule of parallel reservoirs to enhance sufficient hydrological and reservoir capacity compensation","authors":"Zhentao Tang ,&nbsp;Xiaoya Deng ,&nbsp;Aijun Guo ,&nbsp;Yimin Wang ,&nbsp;Jianxia Chang ,&nbsp;Yibin Liang ,&nbsp;Zhehao Li ,&nbsp;Dingrong Zhai ,&nbsp;Rui Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133149","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133149","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the joint operation of parallel reservoir systems, it is possible to effectively coordinate and compensate for water supply among reservoirs by utilizing hydrological characteristics, reservoir regulation capabilities, and geographical differences. However, the rules for joint operations of parallel reservoir systems are complex when the multiple reservoirs supply water to one user with multiple demands (such as the agricultural and ecological demand). The object of this study is proposing a set of compensation operating rules to address the above issues. The set of rules include the reservoir sequential compensation operating rule, the partial compensation operating rule, and the dynamic compensation operating rule. The rules are extracted with a case study of the parallel reservoir system of the Hotan River Basin (HRB), China. The parallel reservoir system of HRB include two large-scale reservoirs and sixteen small-scale reservoirs. The results indicate that all three type rules could realize the hydrological and reservoir capacity compensation of the parallel reservoir system. The reliability of joint water supplies reaches 100%, while the reliability of individual water supplies is 50%, 54%, and 64%, respectively under the above three operation rules. Considering the characteristics of runoff and the reservoir, the reservoir dynamic compensation operating rule allocate the water resources with the joint water demand of each user in each period. And the dynamic compensation operating rule improves the reliability of water supply. This indicates that the rule successfully addresses the water demand for various users, bridging the gap between supply capacity and joint demand. It is suitable for extreme hydrological conditions and widely applicable.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"657 ","pages":"Article 133149"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143682726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mechanisms of groundwater recovery and land subsidence mitigation in a piedmont plain","authors":"Long Zhao ,&nbsp;Xiao-Wei Jiang ,&nbsp;Yu-Mei Li ,&nbsp;Yong Luo ,&nbsp;Kun-Chao Lei ,&nbsp;Wen-Jie Kou ,&nbsp;Fang Tian ,&nbsp;Miao-Zhuang Tian ,&nbsp;Te Sha ,&nbsp;Shu-Fang Wang ,&nbsp;Wen-Jun Cui","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133165","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133165","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Groundwater recovery and land subsidence mitigation have been widely observed, but their mechanisms remain poorly known. Here, the northeastern Beijing piedmont plain is used as a natural lab to explore the mechanisms based on data of groundwater level and InSAR. Time series of groundwater level in two decades show groundwater recovery after the operation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project since 2014. By using an explainable machine learning method, we find pumping restriction has contribution to groundwater recovery in the whole plain, whereas managed aquifer recharge (MAR) has effect in the impact zone with a width of 12 km along the river. Due to the superposition of MAR, groundwater recovery inside the impact zone is generally higher than that outside the impact zone. The higher groundwater recovery inside the impact zone in Aquifer I is a result of direct infiltration of MAR, whereas in Aquifer IV is caused by the loading effect of increased storage in shallow aquifers resulting from MAR. InSAR displacement data reveals obvious land subsidence mitigation since 2018, in the form of reduced subsidence rate or land rebound. The area of land rebound accounts for 3 % during the stage from 2018 to 2020, and increased to 47 % during the stage from 2021 to 2022. The rate of land rebound from 2021 to 2022 has a linear correlation with the proportion of sand layers, and land rebound occurs when the proportion of sand layers exceeds 50 %, which indicates the importance of elastic expansion of sand layers in land rebound.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"658 ","pages":"Article 133165"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143724635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Groundwater leakage of an endorheic basin with extensive permafrost coverage in the western Mongolian Plateau","authors":"Shun Hu ,&nbsp;Cenhanyi Hu ,&nbsp;Keyu Meng ,&nbsp;Yinghui Long ,&nbsp;Jing Zhang ,&nbsp;Mingxin Wang ,&nbsp;Linglin Zeng ,&nbsp;Zilong Liao","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133175","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133175","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Groundwater is critical for social development and ecological environment in the Great Lake Depression, a mountainous endorheic basin characterized by permafrost coverage in western Mongolian Plateau. However, its leakage to surrounding regions and the related impacts on water resource stability have never been studied under climate warming. This study attempts to meticulously examine the dynamics of groundwater leakage and its implications for terrestrial water storage (TWS) and groundwater stability from 2002 to 2022. A modified water balance approach by introducing the term of groundwater exchange, different from traditional equation for endorheic basin, was utilized to calculate groundwater leakage. The findings indicate that the average annual groundwater leakage amounts to 111.87 × 10⁸ m³/year, with approximately 89.67 % of this leakage occurring during the warm season from May to October. The study identifies three critical thresholds of the difference between precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (ET) (P-ET = 17.39 mm, 33.74 mm, and 58.14 mm) necessary for maintaining TWS stability on an annual basis. Under conditions of climate warming, there is a notable increase in groundwater leakage, with an absolute rate of 0.83 mm/year, which is particularly pronounced during the cold season. Based on the average monthly variation of multi-year P-ET, TWS, air temperature, groundwater level and calculated groundwater leakage, it demonstrates that groundwater leakage is significantly influenced by frozen soil conditions, including both permafrost and seasonally frozen soil, which mediate the interactions between groundwater and surface water/soil water. Soil freezing during the cold season from November to April of next year, coupled with sufficient P-ET, plays a crucial role in facilitating groundwater recharge during the warm season. Additionally, according to the basic permafrost and soil properties and calculated changing rate of TWS, the northern edge of Great Lake Depression is identified as potential pathway for increased groundwater leakage. The study concludes that both TWS and groundwater are at considerable risk of decline. This research underscores the significance of groundwater leakage in the broader content of hydrological studies and practical water resource management, while also elucidating the effects of climate warming on groundwater dynamics and water resource stability in cold regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"657 ","pages":"Article 133175"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143696957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis of the impact of ambient groundwater flow on the aquifer thermal energy storage systems","authors":"Zehao Chen ,&nbsp;Junyuan Zhang ,&nbsp;Hongbin Zhan","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133140","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133140","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Heating and cooling significantly contribute to the world’s total energy consumption, and this demand is steadily rising due to population growth and the impact of climate change. Among various renewable energy technologies, aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) stands out for its efficient energy utilization, ability to reduce CO₂ emissions, and significant energy storage capacity. The question of whether the effect of ambient groundwater flow (AGF) on the recovery efficiency of ATES can be ignored has been a long-standing debate, as recovery efficiency serves as an indicator of how much of the injected thermal energy can be retrieved from the aquifer. This paper aims to construct numerical models using COMSOL Multiphysics to determine under what conditions AGF can be disregarded for the ATES systems. The results show the following: 1) The injection rate of ATES is positively correlated with the recovery efficiency, while aquifer thickness is negatively correlated with the recovery efficiency. 2) A higher AGF velocity results in a lower recovery efficiency. 3) There is a linear correlation between the AGF velocity and the radial flow velocity (generated by the thermal operational well) at the thermal operational wellbore surface, suggesting a specific threshold beyond which the influence of AGF on recovery efficiency cannot be ignored. This research has important implications for providing recommendations for the application of ATES and exploring the potential for expanding renewable energy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"658 ","pages":"Article 133140"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143724141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Coupled hydrologic, hydraulic, and surface water quality models for pollution management in urban–rural areas","authors":"Matteo Masi ,&nbsp;Daniele Masseroni ,&nbsp;Fabio Castelli","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133172","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133172","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban expansion and increasing frequency of extreme events threaten both urban drainage and receiving waterbody water quality. Combined sewer systems are particularly vulnerable, as they mix wastewater and stormwater, making them susceptible to reduced drainage efficiency and potential release of pollutants. Nature-based solutions, such as constructed wetlands, offer an effective means of pollution mitigation by providing sustainable and cost-efficient methods for enhancing water quality and reducing pollution in urban environments. This study presents a numerical modelling framework to simulate the impact of pollution and to design effective remediation strategies in mixed urban–rural networks subjected to storm events. The model consists of three main modules integrating hydrological, hydrodynamic, and reactive transport components to simulate the water and pollutants dynamics. The first module simulates runoff based on a distributed hydrological model and propagation within the canal network. A reactive transport module simulates advective–dispersive transport and biochemical reactions of pollutants. A third module evaluates the effectiveness of horizontal flow constructed wetlands for pollution mitigation. The model is applied to a suburban area near Milan, Italy, where sewer overflows enter a network of irrigation canals. The results demonstrate that the model was effective in identifying a suitable location for implementing a constructed wetland and in determining its proper size to achieve improved water quality. According to the simulations, the designed treatment system can achieve a contamination reduction of up to 23% for ammonium, 84% for nitrates, and 85% for carbonaceous BOD.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"657 ","pages":"Article 133172"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143696962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A visualizable deep learning model for multiscale precipitation-driven karst spring discharge","authors":"Huiqing Hao ,&nbsp;Yonghong Hao ,&nbsp;Chunmei Ma ,&nbsp;Limin Duan ,&nbsp;Xiping Yan ,&nbsp;Qi Wang ,&nbsp;Yan Liu ,&nbsp;Wenrui Zhang ,&nbsp;Tian-Chyi Jim Yeh","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133168","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133168","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Groundwater from karst aquifers provides drinking water for 25% of the world’s population. However, the complexity of karst terrain and karst aquifer heterogeneity hinders comprehensively understanding and predicting karst hydrological processes. This study proposes a deep learning model coupling a multiscale transformer (TSF) with a direction-constrained graph neural network (GNN) for forecasting karst spring discharge. The TSF deciphers the time-dependent patterns between precipitation and spring discharge, while the directed GNN tracks surface water convergence and the groundwater diffusion.</div><div>Applying the model to Shentou Spring in northern China, we discover that visualization of attention weights in the TSF can reveal the multiscale temporal dependence of spring discharge on precipitation through successive transmission over a 12-month lead time, while the memory effect of transmitted information decays over time. Moreover, we find that the intra-patch attention weights at annual and seasonal scales follow normal distributions. The variability of spring discharge is most profound on an annual scale in the year’s first half. At the seasonal scale, the variability of spring discharge driven by precipitation is the most significant in the summer and the slightest in the winter. On the other hand, visualization of edge weights in the directed GNN highlights the spatial dependence of spring discharge, depicting surface water convergence and groundwater diffusion. In addition, the groundwater flow field-based graph enables the GNN to yield the best predictive performance compared to the complete and information flow graph.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"657 ","pages":"Article 133168"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143716278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Finding a parsimonious suspended sediment transport model structure","authors":"Laxmipriya Mohanty ,&nbsp;Asif Qureshi ,&nbsp;Basudev Biswal","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133143","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133143","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Prediction of sediment load in rivers is crucial for addressing several theoretical and practical problems. While purely mechanistic models of sediment load transport suffer from the limitation of being impractical for application due to constraints in finding adequate field data, as well as computational resources, purely data-based models are not fully reliable due to fitting and interpretability issues. Conceptual approaches provide a middle ground to develop models that capture the best of the two above approaches — incorporating key physical processes while exploiting empirical observations. This study adopts the unit sediment graph method, which decouples sediment generation and sediment routing, akin to the unit hydrograph method which decouples runoff generation and runoff routing. <span><span>Banasik and Walling (1996)</span></span> expressed effective sediment <span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>E</mi><mi>S</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span>, the amount of sediment that ultimately exits in the catchment, as a general function of precipitation (<span><math><mi>R</mi></math></span>) as well as effective precipitation (<span><math><mrow><mi>ER</mi></mrow></math></span>): <span><math><mrow><mi>ES</mi><mo>=</mo><mi>X</mi><mo>∙</mo><msup><mrow><mi>R</mi><mo>(</mo><mi>t</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow><mi>m</mi></msup><mo>∙</mo><msup><mrow><mi>ER</mi><mo>(</mo><mi>t</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow><mi>n</mi></msup></mrow></math></span>. For the sake of simplification, either <span><math><mi>m</mi></math></span> or <span><math><mi>n</mi></math></span> can be assumed to be zero, giving us two derivative models. In this study, we assume that both <span><math><mi>m</mi></math></span> and <span><math><mi>n</mi></math></span> are equal to 1, leaving only <span><math><mi>X</mi></math></span> free for calibration. Sediment routing is performed using the sediment rating curve as well as by directly routing effective sediment with two parallel linear reservoirs. Effective rainfall and discharge are estimated with the HBV hydrological model. We tested the eight generation-routing model combinations considering daily sediment load data from USGS and precipitation data from NOAA for 18 catchments. The proposed sediment generation model in combination with the direct routing type appears to be the most reliable, with a median NSE and R² equal to 0.47 and 0.63 respectively. The results here support the idea that basin-scale sediment load prediction can be performed with a simple, parsimonious model applicable to a wide variety of geographical regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"657 ","pages":"Article 133143"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143716323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pore-scale observations of CO2 thermodynamic properties and dissolution trapping in porous media","authors":"Shaohua Li,&nbsp;Xin Wang,&nbsp;Lanlan Jiang,&nbsp;Yongchen Song","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133118","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133118","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Carbon geological storage (CGS) presents a promising approach to mitigate climate change. Partially free CO₂ is trapped in tiny pores and gradually dissolves into formation fluid. However, thermodynamic properties of CO₂ remain inadequately understood, which strongly influence activation possibility of these free CO₂. In this study, we innovatively mapped CO₂ evolution and redistribution at micro scale by using X-ray CT. CO₂ growth or shrinkage was determined by the threshold equal to pore volume. Bellow the threshold, bubbles experienced thermodynamically unstable shrink, following a power-law distribution in its specific interfacial area. Otherwise, bubble growth was governed by diffusion between gas and liquid phases, unlike conversely bubble coalescence. Larger bubbles expand at the expense of smaller ones through Ostwald ripening. The surface energy of CO₂ bubbles during Ostwald ripening in porous media was firstly quantified. The whole system tended to reduce surface energy and larger bubbles have lower surface energy. In additional, high curvature interfaces prefer to rupture and growth. It was also found that CO₂ bubble disappears in about 5.87 h at laboratory scales, which was 23.79 times greater than that estimated by the traditional LSW equation. This longer period allowed CO₂ to redistribute within porous media, diminishing solubility and mineral trapping efficiency, thereby increasing the risk of long-term storage leakage.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"658 ","pages":"Article 133118"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143738862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Key geochemical processes in typical magmatic hydrothermal systems explaining REE patterns in the neutral boiling springs","authors":"Xiaobo Zhang,&nbsp;Qinghai Guo,&nbsp;Xin Li,&nbsp;Anping Luo,&nbsp;Feng Hu,&nbsp;Mengzhao Zhang,&nbsp;Weihao Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133147","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133147","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The mobility and fractionation of REE in hydrothermal system have been studied by a number of researchers. A major effort has been made in this study to investigate the genesis of REE in the parent geothermal liquid-fed (PGL-fed) neutral boiling springs. The Daggyai and Rehai are two typical magmatic hydrothermal systems in which several representative PGL-fed boiling springs have been collected. PHREEQC V3.0 with self-constructed database was used to calculate the aqueous REE species in the PGL and construct models to study the impacts of pH, temperature, and Fe/Mn (hydr)oxides on the distribution of REE. Simulation results showed that NdCl²⁺, NdF²⁺, NdSO₄⁺, Nd³⁺, NdCl₂⁺, and NdOH²⁺ are dominant species under strong acid condition. Solid REE oxides start to precipitate at pH of higher than 2.9, meanwhile, the content of all the REE species decrease rapidly to lower than 1 ppb. The impact of temperature on REE fractionation in PGL-fed boiling springs was analyzed under a nearly neutral pH condition (fixed at pH 6.3). The simulation results showed that high temperature (over 200℃) favors the REE hydroxyl over the other species; however, REE fluorides are dominant followed by REE free ions, carbonates, and sulfates at temperature lower than 150℃. The presence of Fe/Mn (hydr)oxides can change the distribution of REE in geothermal fluids due to its strong affinity to dissolved REE species. The result given by a simplified 1-D model showed that after interaction of 150 aliquots of PGL, the REE_N patterns have a strong trend of depletion of LREE; as this simulation continues until 6000 aliquots have passed, the REE_N patterns tend to be flat especially at temperature of 100℃. This can help to explain the differences of REE_N patterns in Daggyai and Rehai geothermal fields that the relatively flat REE_N patterns in Rehai is probably because the presence of hydrothermal alteration minerals such as pyrite, rhodochrosite, kaolinite and illite-montmorillonite interstratified clays.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"657 ","pages":"Article 133147"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143683129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forecasting compound drought-heatwaves using Burg entropy spectral analysis with multi-frequency resolutions","authors":"Jeongwoo Han ,&nbsp;Vijay P. Singh ,&nbsp;Hyun-Han Kwon ,&nbsp;Tae-Woong Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133166","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133166","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Due to the significant impacts of compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events, which are projected to increase in frequency under global warming, establishing a proactive management plan for CDHW events is highlighted in this study. However, studies on forecasting CDHWs have been limited, with most done on a monthly scale. Since heatwaves evolve at a short time scale of less than a week, monitoring and forecasting at sub-monthly scales can provide important information. Thus, this study developed a standardized compound drought-heatwave index (SCDHI) at a 7-day time scale (SCDHI-7D) for South Korea by coupling the standardized antecedent precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SAPEI) and the standardized temperature index (STI) using the copula method. The developed SCDHI-7D effectively monitored CDHW events that occurred in South Korea. To forecast SCDHI-7D, Burg entropy spectral analysis (BESA) with maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT), referred to as BESA, was developed. BESA showed good forecasting accuracy, with a median Kling-Gupta efficiency (<em>KGE</em>) value greater than 0.79 up to a 24-day lead time. Besides, BESA forecasted CDHW events effectively, with a hit rate greater than 75 % and a false positive less than 11.52 % up to a 24-day lead time. BESA also maintained good forecasting accuracy for extended lead times longer than 3 weeks. Under the same training conditions, BESA outperformed the Long short-term memory (LSTM), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and XGBoost models that were considered benchmark models. This study could be useful for providing accurate early warning information to establish a proactive management plan for CDHW events.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"658 ","pages":"Article 133166"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143725556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}