Journal of Hydrology最新文献

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Inundation mechanisms and overbank water quality along the lower Mississippi River during the major floods of 2018, 2019, and 2020 2018年、2019年和2020年大洪水期间,密西西比河下游的淹没机制和河岸水质
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学
Journal of Hydrology Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133550
Franklin T. Heitmuller , Jansen D. Costello , Paul F. Hudson , Kevin A. Kuehn , Samuel E. Muñoz , Davin J. Wallace
{"title":"Inundation mechanisms and overbank water quality along the lower Mississippi River during the major floods of 2018, 2019, and 2020","authors":"Franklin T. Heitmuller ,&nbsp;Jansen D. Costello ,&nbsp;Paul F. Hudson ,&nbsp;Kevin A. Kuehn ,&nbsp;Samuel E. Muñoz ,&nbsp;Davin J. Wallace","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133550","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133550","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Artificially narrowed embanked floodplains, like those along the lower Mississippi River (LMR), are limited in their capacity to attenuate flooding and maximize nutrient retention. This study examines mechanisms and patterns of inundation during three major LMR floods (2018–2020) by analyzing water levels and temperatures from continuously operating sensors. Additionally, <em>in-situ</em> water quality measurements and overbank water samples collected in 2019 were analyzed for sediment, sorbed carbon and nutrients, and dissolved nutrients. Results indicate that subsurface seepage during the early rising limb initiates water-level increases in deep floodplain water bodies, followed by backwater inundation of distal floodplains, crevasse activation, and finally overtopping of natural levees near maximum stages. Overbank water samples from March and June 2019 indicate that dissolved nitrate-nitrite (54% &amp; 24% less), phosphorus (27% &amp; 29% less), and suspended-sediment concentrations (70% &amp; 59% less) were lower than the LMR channel upstream, indicating nutrient retention and sediment deposition in the embanked floodplain; findings are partly supported by declining trends with distance from the channel bank. Conversely, mass percentages of sorbed carbon (235% &amp; 68% more) and nitrogen (300% &amp; 125% more) were higher than the LMR channel, resulting from sand deposition on natural levees and continued suspension of adsorptive fine-grained sediments. Subsequent fine-grained settling retains carbon and nitrogen in floodplain deposits. These findings establish that modes and patterns of sediment deposition and nutrient retention vary as stages adjust during long-duration floods, and while deeply inundated embanked floodplains remain capable of retention, fine sediment and nutrients primarily bypass downstream.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"661 ","pages":"Article 133550"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144124405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Beyond the traditional paradigm of water resources management: scenario thinking to address deep uncertainty 超越水资源管理的传统范式:解决深度不确定性的情景思维
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学
Journal of Hydrology Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133547
Wenyan Wu , Leila Eamen , Graeme Dandy , Holger R. Maier , Saman Razavi , Jan Kwakkel , Jiajia Huang , George Kuczera
{"title":"Beyond the traditional paradigm of water resources management: scenario thinking to address deep uncertainty","authors":"Wenyan Wu ,&nbsp;Leila Eamen ,&nbsp;Graeme Dandy ,&nbsp;Holger R. Maier ,&nbsp;Saman Razavi ,&nbsp;Jan Kwakkel ,&nbsp;Jiajia Huang ,&nbsp;George Kuczera","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133547","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133547","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sustainable management of water resources is crucial for humanity. However, traditional methods for achieving this are becoming obsolete. This is because they are underpinned by the assumption that we have a good understanding of how water availability and demand will change in the future. However, based on our current experience with climate change, this is not the case. In fact, rather than having a good understanding of what the future might look like, it is, in fact, deeply uncertain. Consequently, a new paradigm for water resources management is needed; one that accounts for deep uncertainty by embracing scenario thinking. We categorize and summarize different causes of deep uncertainty in water resources management and provide examples of how an emerging paradigm rooted in scenario thinking can deal with these. We hope to stimulate discussion to enable this new paradigm to be developed further and embedded in standard practice.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"661 ","pages":"Article 133547"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144115235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Glacier changes and their impact on glacial lakes in the Parlung Zangbo Basin, Southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, 1987–2023 1987-2023年青藏高原东南部帕隆藏布盆地冰川变化及其对冰湖的影响
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学
Journal of Hydrology Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133516
Zhenqi Sun , Shijin Wang , Xingguo Yan , Rongfang Zhao
{"title":"Glacier changes and their impact on glacial lakes in the Parlung Zangbo Basin, Southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, 1987–2023","authors":"Zhenqi Sun ,&nbsp;Shijin Wang ,&nbsp;Xingguo Yan ,&nbsp;Rongfang Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133516","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133516","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There is a dearth of accurate multitemporal glacier change investigations and analyses in the Parlung Zangbo Basin (PLZB) of the Southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. A combination of deep learning and artificial visual interpretation was employed to investigate the glaciers in the PLZB since 1987 using multisource and multitemporal data. The impact of climate change on glaciers retreat, and the impact of glaciers retreat on the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) were revealed and assessed. From 1987 to 2023, a total of 1,505 to 1,702 glaciers, encompassing a total area of 1,693.94 km<sup>2</sup> to 1,068.24 km<sup>2</sup>, were identified in the PLZB. The glacier area has continued to shrink, with a shrinkage rate of 16.99 km<sup>2</sup>/yr (1.01 %/yr). The PLZB is one of the fastest glaciers retreat region in China. The distribution of glaciers in the PLZB exhibits the typical characteristics of mountain glaciers. The number of small glaciers is considerable and increasing, and the average elevation of the glaciers is over 5,000 m and rising. East- and northeast-facing glaciers are the most numerous, north-facing glaciers are exceedingly scarce. The principal factor driving the accelerated retreat of the glaciers was the rapid rise in temperature. The accelerated retreat of glaciers has contributed to the formation and expansion of glacial lakes and may have increased the potential risk of GLOFs. It is imperative that the residents of the PLZB and even the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau enhance their capacity to prevent and withstand GLOFs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"661 ","pages":"Article 133516"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144115221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Leveraging emergent constraints to reduce uncertainty in future compound drought and heatwave events across mainland China 利用紧急约束减少中国大陆未来复合干旱和热浪事件的不确定性
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学
Journal of Hydrology Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133551
Mengyu Wu , Dunxian She , Qin Zhang , Yao Yue , Jun Xia , Wenting Hu , Yuliang Zhou
{"title":"Leveraging emergent constraints to reduce uncertainty in future compound drought and heatwave events across mainland China","authors":"Mengyu Wu ,&nbsp;Dunxian She ,&nbsp;Qin Zhang ,&nbsp;Yao Yue ,&nbsp;Jun Xia ,&nbsp;Wenting Hu ,&nbsp;Yuliang Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133551","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133551","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent increase in compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events has resulted in serious socio-economic impacts globally as well as in China and attracted growing concern. However, the underlying uncertainty in Earth system models may reduce the confidence levels in extreme events projections. Previous studies demonstrated the effectiveness of the emergent constraint (EC) method in addressing this issue, while they primarily focused on the treatment of climate variables or single extremes. The potential of EC in reducing the uncertainty of compound extremes has not been sufficiently evaluated yet. Here, we construct the EC relationships between historical daily maximum temperature and future (2021–2100) changes of CDHW events characteristics (duration, severity, and magnitude) using 24 CMIP6 models under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). The application in mainland China presented that EC decrease the variance of CDHW events characteristics by 35 % (duration), 25 % (severity) and 21 % (magnitude) on average compared to raw projections. Specially, EC performs best under SSP3-7.0 scenario, with variance reduced by 42 %, 32 % and 29 % for duration, severity, and magnitude, respectively. By the end of 21st century, constrained growth (relative to 1981–2010) in CDHW events duration, severity, and magnitude are projected to reach 8.55 (±3.86)-31.58 (±7.46) days, 0.72 (±0.25)-2.37 (±0.57) ℃ and 1.46 (±0.56)-6.20 (±1.65) ℃, respectively. The constrained results imply that CDHW events duration, severity and magnitude are decreased by 3.58 %-6.00 %, 2.50 %-4.88 % and 2.48 %-4.95 % than currently expected, respectively, providing valuable insights for mitigation strategies and risk assessments of compound extremes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"661 ","pages":"Article 133551"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144124402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An integrated postprocessing approach for extracting time variable signals from GRACE monthly gravity field models GRACE月重力场模型时变信号提取的综合后处理方法
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学
Journal of Hydrology Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133552
Lin Zhang , Yunzhong Shen , Kunpu Ji , Fengwei Wang , Qiujie Chen
{"title":"An integrated postprocessing approach for extracting time variable signals from GRACE monthly gravity field models","authors":"Lin Zhang ,&nbsp;Yunzhong Shen ,&nbsp;Kunpu Ji ,&nbsp;Fengwei Wang ,&nbsp;Qiujie Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133552","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133552","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Since significant north–south striped noise exists in the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) monthly gravity field models, various filtering approaches are employed before extracting time variable signals with a harmonic fitting model that includes trends, annual and semiannual terms, leading to signal attenuation and leakage. This study develops an Integrated Postprocessing Approach (IPA) to iteratively estimate time variable signals and filter noise using a harmonic model plus a non-seasonal signal term. The stochastic characteristics of non-seasonal signals are described using an exponential function. To improve computational efficiency, the non-seasonal signals are represented by a Gauss–Markov process and estimated by Kalman filtering. The Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA) signals across 22 global basins from April 2002 to December 2023 estimated by IPA exhibit high spatial resolution, closely matching Combined Mascon (CM) solutions. Relative to CM solutions, IPA reduces the latitude-weighted RMSEs of spatial TWSA signals by 8.0% while increases the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of TWSA series by 2.1% compared to Improved Parameter Filtering (IPF; Zhang et al. 2024) approach. Additionally, IPA estimates significantly enhanced trends and strong annual amplitudes of TWSA signals in the Amazon and Parana basins, along with the volume variances of Three-Gorges Reservoir and Poyang Lake, as well as 2.1 and 4.2-year interannual volume variance signals in Victoria Lake. The Water Storage Drought Index (WSDI) constructed by IPA aligns well with SPEI-6 in detecting the duration and intensity of severe droughts and floods in typical basins. Further experiments indicate the IPA outperforms the other eight common spectral filters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"661 ","pages":"Article 133552"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144115234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Downscaling multilayer soil moisture using parameterized depth profiles associated with environmental factors 利用与环境因子相关的参数化深度剖面降尺度多层土壤湿度
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学
Journal of Hydrology Pub Date : 2025-05-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133544
Mo Zhang , Yong Ge , Yuxin Ma , Yan Jin , Yingying Chen , Shaomin Liu
{"title":"Downscaling multilayer soil moisture using parameterized depth profiles associated with environmental factors","authors":"Mo Zhang ,&nbsp;Yong Ge ,&nbsp;Yuxin Ma ,&nbsp;Yan Jin ,&nbsp;Yingying Chen ,&nbsp;Shaomin Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133544","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133544","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High-resolution multilayer soil moisture is valuable for water resources management, drought monitoring, and crop optimization. However, integrating process-based models into statistical downscaling methods to estimate multilayer soil moisture can increase both prediction uncertainty and computational complexity of parameterization. Here, three parameterized equations (Peak, Trough, and Balance) were proposed to quantify soil moisture profiles associated with environmental factors, and downscale multilayer soil moisture. Global (0–40 cm) and local (0–10, 10–20, and 20–40 cm) fitting strategies represented the vertical extent of environmental influences. Three machine learning models were employed to downscale satellite soil moisture and predict depth parameters, which were then used to generate sub-surface soil moisture. The results indicated that the local fitting strategy consistently outperformed the global strategy across all depths, reducing the mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) by 81.8 % and 80.4 %, and increasing the coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>) by 22.5 %. Furthermore, local fitting revealed distinct nonlinear and linear patterns within the 0–20 cm and 20–40 cm intervals, respectively. The prediction accuracy of sub-surface soil moisture was improved compared to surface results, with MAE and RMSE reduced by 30.2 %–60.7 % and 34.9 %–56.7 %, respectively. The modified local fitting strategy further enhanced prediction performance, with the Peak–Trough–Balance combination recommended as the optimal configuration. Future studies should account for variations in soil and vegetation cover, refine interval division by incorporating soil-forming processes, and adopt advanced uncertainty quantification methods to enhance its adaptability and robustness. This study provides a reference for multilayer soil moisture downscaling in large-scale regions with depth variability and environmental heterogeneity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"661 ","pages":"Article 133544"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144131113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A joint Gaussian process model of geochemistry, geophysics, and temperature for groundwater TDS in the San Ardo Oil Field, California, USA 美国加利福尼亚州San Ardo油田地下水TDS的地球化学、地球物理和温度联合高斯过程模型
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学
Journal of Hydrology Pub Date : 2025-05-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133540
Michael J. Stephens , Will Chang , David H. Shimabukuro , Amanda Howery , Theron A. Sowers , Janice M. Gillespie
{"title":"A joint Gaussian process model of geochemistry, geophysics, and temperature for groundwater TDS in the San Ardo Oil Field, California, USA","authors":"Michael J. Stephens ,&nbsp;Will Chang ,&nbsp;David H. Shimabukuro ,&nbsp;Amanda Howery ,&nbsp;Theron A. Sowers ,&nbsp;Janice M. Gillespie","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133540","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133540","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Decline in availability of fresh groundwater has expanded interest in brackish groundwater resources; however, the distribution of brackish groundwater is poorly understood. Water resources in sedimentary basins across the United States often overlie oil and gas development. Mapping of groundwater total dissolved solids (TDS) using data from oil well geophysical logs has become an important technique for identifying fresh and brackish groundwater.</div><div>Existing geophysical log analysis methods use porosity and temperature to relate formation resistivity to TDS. Typically, natural geothermal gradients are used to estimate temperature at the location of collected resistivity. However, in thermally enhanced oil fields, steam is injected into the subsurface to mobilize high viscosity oil, creating variable temperature distributions. Furthermore, TDS derived from resistivity also depends on the fractions of dominant ions. Typically, chloride and bicarbonate fractions must be determined. It is also necessary to model TDS across many geologic units with heterogenous porosity distributions. Collectively, each quantity used to estimate TDS (resistivity, porosity, temperature, bicarbonate fraction) varies in space and time, and available data points are rarely collocated.</div><div>Here, we present a new method of mapping groundwater TDS that continuously models each quantity together with a joint Gaussian process. This method enables mapping fresh and brackish water with practically available data. We apply this method to the San Ardo Oil Field in Monterey County, California, where steam injection occurs. In some areas of the aquifer system overlying the oil zone, the temperature is ∼75 °C, roughly twice the natural background value. Groundwater TDS is typically &lt;1,500 mg/L in the aquifer and increases with depth to ∼9,000 mg/L in the oil-producing zone. A low-permeability clay layer delineates the fresh and brackish water, likely by inhibiting surface recharge from penetrating the deeper zones, allowing higher-TDS connate water to remain in place. Weaker lateral TDS trends may be controlled by recharge patterns associated with the Salinas River. Our model reveals with high certainty that groundwater has freshened in one localized part of the oil-producing zone and suggests with less certainty that more widespread freshening has also occurred. The lowering of TDS was possibly from decades of low-TDS steam injection and the associated fluid production and disposal operations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"661 ","pages":"Article 133540"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144147452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Rethinking groundwater-level mapping: The presence of intrinsic vertical hydraulic gradient in confined aquifers 对地下水位测绘的再思考:承压含水层固有垂直水力梯度的存在
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学
Journal of Hydrology Pub Date : 2025-05-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133535
Guoquan Wang
{"title":"Rethinking groundwater-level mapping: The presence of intrinsic vertical hydraulic gradient in confined aquifers","authors":"Guoquan Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133535","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133535","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the Intrinsic Vertical Hydraulic Gradient (IVHG) and its significant impact on enhancing groundwater-level (GWL) mapping. The IVHG is a fundamental characteristic that is naturally inherent in confined aquifers, reflecting the natural, undisturbed state of vertical hydraulic head variations under equilibrium conditions. Traditionally, GWL mapping has overlooked vertical hydraulic gradients within confined aquifers, assuming that groundwater levels remain constant at any given site within a confined aquifer regardless of well depth. This study identifies an IVHG of approximately 0.07 within the confined Chicot-Evangeline aquifer beneath the Greater Houston area, Texas, and around 0.05 in the underlying Jasper aquifer. This study presents an IVHG-adjusted GWL mapping method that standardizes GWL measurements based on well depth, resulting in more precise and depth-specific GWL contours. This approach offers a critical improvement over conventional methods, providing greater precision in water resource management, conservation planning, and the assessment of land subsidence risks, especially in areas land subsidence has ceased. The IVHG represents the minimum vertical hydraulic head gradient within confined aquifers. In regions where subsidence persists, the IVHG-adjusted method may not fully capture the larger vertical hydraulic gradient, yet it still outperforms conventional mapping by providing a more accurate representation of GWLs at different depths. The findings highlight the need to consider vertical hydraulic gradients in GWL mapping for more precise groundwater assessments and effective management strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"661 ","pages":"Article 133535"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144124401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The predictability of global land dry-wet condition contributed by sea surface temperature of Pacific: A new perspective from nonlinear dynamical system 太平洋海温对全球陆地干湿状况的可预测性:非线性动力系统的新视角
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学
Journal of Hydrology Pub Date : 2025-05-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133536
Yiyang Zhao , Linqi Li , Zhaoqiang Zhou , Yibo Ding , Zhaodan Cao
{"title":"The predictability of global land dry-wet condition contributed by sea surface temperature of Pacific: A new perspective from nonlinear dynamical system","authors":"Yiyang Zhao ,&nbsp;Linqi Li ,&nbsp;Zhaoqiang Zhou ,&nbsp;Yibo Ding ,&nbsp;Zhaodan Cao","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133536","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133536","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ocean states significantly influence the temporal variability of dry-wet conditions (DWC). Quantifying their contribution to DWC predictability is crucial for drought and extreme pluvial events early-warning and prevention. Due to the complex physical mechanism, the relationship between ocean states and DWC is inherently nonlinear, necessitating a statistical tool capable of addressing such nonlinearity for better quantification. This study employs Nonlinear Dynamical System (NDS) theory to understand the predictability of DWC, and Convergent Cross-mapping (CCM) to assess the contribution of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) indices—Niño1 + 2 and Niño3.4—to the predictability of precipitation and DWC globally. Using the Pearl River Basin (PRB) as an example case, we illustrate the calculation of CCM and the interpretation of its results. For instance, indicated by CCM skills, the Niño1 + 2 accounts for approximately 0.78 of the predictability of precipitation in PRB, whereas the Niño3.4 contributes around 0.46. After that, we apply CCM to map the spatial distribution of SST’s contribution to the global land surface precipitation and DWC, highlighting regions where SST has the highest and lowest contributions. More importantly, we confirm the applicability of CCM and NDS theory for SST and DWC, validating our findings and signifying that the predictability in the NDS is short-term but has a deterministic nature. As a first attempt, this study provides additional avenues to understand the predictability of DWC and to quantify the contribution of ocean states to it, from a global perspective based on NDS theory.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"661 ","pages":"Article 133536"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144098699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
TiFA: A new LSPIV Post-Processing algorithm for river surface velocity measurement under low tracer density conditions TiFA:低示踪剂密度条件下河面流速测量的LSPIV后处理新算法
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学
Journal of Hydrology Pub Date : 2025-05-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133543
Qingcheng Yu , Colin D. Rennie , Sean Ferguson , Mitchel Provan
{"title":"TiFA: A new LSPIV Post-Processing algorithm for river surface velocity measurement under low tracer density conditions","authors":"Qingcheng Yu ,&nbsp;Colin D. Rennie ,&nbsp;Sean Ferguson ,&nbsp;Mitchel Provan","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133543","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133543","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The incapability of processing river surface flow velocities under low tracer density conditions is one of the limitations of the traditional Large-Scale Particle Image Velocimetry (LSPIV). This study developed a new LSPIV post-processing algorithm, Time Frequency Analysis (TiFA), to overcome such a limitation, enhance computational efficiency, and improve the accuracy of derived velocities. TiFA investigates the temporal joint distribution pattern of two velocity components at each location. By assuming that the valid velocities follow a quasi-normal distribution in the velocity time series, TiFA can quickly and accurately separate the valid velocities from background noise and outliers. The performance of TiFA was evaluated by comparing with other algorithms including Traditional LSPIV, Ensemble Correlation (EC), Large-Scale Particle Tracking Velocimetry (LSPTV), and traditional LSPIV pre-processed with Seeding Density Index (SDI) in an experimental hydraulic model and two field cases. TiFA showed the highest overall accuracy and lowest computation cost in data analysis, especially under low tracer density conditions. In addition, TiFA can automatically filter out velocity data from low-quality zones such as no-tracer zones and surface glare zones. TiFA also showed its ability in processing turbulent flow. In summary, TiFA demonstrated its great potential and competence of measuring river surface velocity under relatively low tracer density conditions, making it a valuable candidate for future applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"661 ","pages":"Article 133543"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144107155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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