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A new approach in forecasting Greek electricity demand: From high dimensional hourly series to univariate series transformation 希腊电力需求预测的一种新方法:从高维小时序列到单变量序列变换
Electricity Journal Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2023.107305
George Varelas , Giannis Tzimas , Panayiotis Alefragis
{"title":"A new approach in forecasting Greek electricity demand: From high dimensional hourly series to univariate series transformation","authors":"George Varelas ,&nbsp;Giannis Tzimas ,&nbsp;Panayiotis Alefragis","doi":"10.1016/j.tej.2023.107305","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2023.107305","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This article presents a different approach to power consumption forecasting problem. This forecasting can help power supply companies to program their production or purchases. Based on this forecasting the companies take part in auctions that determine the price of the MWh in the electricity market and at the end of the day, the price for the end consumer. So far, the problem of forecasting power supply time series has mainly been dealt with the use of classical time series algorithms or VAR models. In this paper, we use a method from the insurance sector to forecast Greek power consumption hourly values. The innovation in this method is that it allows converting the forecasting of a system of time series (high dimensional time series) into forecasting a single time series and propagating the results back to each time series. It leaves the forecasting algorithm choice to the researcher, making it very flexible and removing the necessity of choosing complex algorithms. We demonstrate the forecasting of the results of this method by applying the ARIMA algorithm.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":35642,"journal":{"name":"Electricity Journal","volume":"36 6","pages":"Article 107305"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50177203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Testing for integrated electricity series – A formalized synthesis of known problems 集成电力系列测试——已知问题的形式化综合
Electricity Journal Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2023.107289
Nicolas Schneider
{"title":"Testing for integrated electricity series – A formalized synthesis of known problems","authors":"Nicolas Schneider","doi":"10.1016/j.tej.2023.107289","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2023.107289","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper reviews and discusses methodological choices and statistical inferences relevant to the literature that has worked at identifying long-memory behaviours within the stochastic features of electricity series (consumption and prices). We argue that persisting divergences reported in this literature can be linked to the (non)-treatment of key identification challenges in time-series econometrics. We synthetized those problems in a formalized fashion focusing on the followings: presence of structural breaks in the series (<em>i</em>); inferences affecting panel data structure such as cross-sectional dependence among the series, heterogeneous slope coefficients as well as the problem of missing observations (<em>ii</em>); the issue of integrated time-series observed with noise and some implications for cointegrated relations (<em>iii</em>).</p></div>","PeriodicalId":35642,"journal":{"name":"Electricity Journal","volume":"36 6","pages":"Article 107289"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50177199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Electricity sector resilience in response to extreme weather and climate-related events: Tools and datasets 电力部门应对极端天气和气候相关事件的复原力:工具和数据集
Electricity Journal Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2023.107290
Hamidreza Ashrafi , Tarannom Parhizkar
{"title":"Electricity sector resilience in response to extreme weather and climate-related events: Tools and datasets","authors":"Hamidreza Ashrafi ,&nbsp;Tarannom Parhizkar","doi":"10.1016/j.tej.2023.107290","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2023.107290","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The significant increase in both the severity and frequency of climatological catastrophes draws attention to the necessity for a more climate-resilient electricity sector. In recent years, several databases and platforms have been developed to assess the resilience of the electricity sector in response to extreme weather and climate-related events. This study conducts a comprehensive review of the platforms and databases used for assessing climate resilience in the electricity sector. It discusses the existing gaps and challenges of these platforms and datasets and proposes a future path.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":35642,"journal":{"name":"Electricity Journal","volume":"36 6","pages":"Article 107290"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50177198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Simple Chargers for a Small DC Micro-Grid for a Home Emergency Power System 用于家庭应急电源系统的小型直流微电网的简易充电器
Electricity Journal Pub Date : 2023-06-26 DOI: 10.3390/electricity4030013
F. Himmelstoss, H. Votzi
{"title":"Simple Chargers for a Small DC Micro-Grid for a Home Emergency Power System","authors":"F. Himmelstoss, H. Votzi","doi":"10.3390/electricity4030013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/electricity4030013","url":null,"abstract":"Recently, the danger of a long blackout is discussed in Europe. Blackouts can be caused by failures in the energy distribution, errors in large power plants or even cyber-attacks. This can lead to a chain reaction and a disintegration of the mains. Longer blackouts have an extreme impact on the economy as a whole and on local households. Therefore, a small local grid at home which can supply the most important loads over some time has garnered increasing interest. With a small direct current (DC) grid, critical loads such as for deep freezers and refrigerators can be supplied, and some LED lights can be used in the evening or at night. Solar generators (panels) can be used to charge energy storage devices, e.g., batteries. A DC grid can not only be used in the case of an emergency, but can also be used to reduce energy consumption out of the public mains and reduce energy bills. The architecture of the household emergency DC grid is discussed; suggestions for batteries are given; two simple chargers, based on DC-DC-converters like the Buck (step-down) and on the Boost (step-up) converters, are shown; dimensioning suggestions are given; and simple, robust controllers, a P-controller with disturbance feedforward and a hysteresis controller, are treated and tested via simulations. The goal of the paper is to show a simple autonomous home energy system without an external fieldbus, LAN or internet connection with special focus on simple charger topologies.","PeriodicalId":35642,"journal":{"name":"Electricity Journal","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75449820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dynamic Regression Prediction Models for Customer Specific Electricity Consumption 用户特定用电量的动态回归预测模型
Electricity Journal Pub Date : 2023-06-07 DOI: 10.3390/electricity4020012
Fatlinda Shaqiri, R. Korn, Hong-Phuc Truong
{"title":"Dynamic Regression Prediction Models for Customer Specific Electricity Consumption","authors":"Fatlinda Shaqiri, R. Korn, Hong-Phuc Truong","doi":"10.3390/electricity4020012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/electricity4020012","url":null,"abstract":"We have developed a conventional benchmark model for the prediction of two days of electricity consumption for industrial and institutional customers of an electricity provider. This task of predicting 96 values of 15 min of electricity consumption per day in one shot is successfully dealt with by a dynamic regression model that uses the Seasonal and Trend decomposition method (STL) for the estimation of the trend and the seasonal components based on (approximately) three years of real data. With the help of suitable R packages, our concept can also be applied to comparable problems in electricity consumption prediction.","PeriodicalId":35642,"journal":{"name":"Electricity Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84791480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Impact of multiyear rate plans on power distributor productivity: Evidence from Alberta 多年费率计划对配电网生产力的影响:来自阿尔伯塔省的证据
Electricity Journal Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2023.107288
Mark Newton Lowry, David A. Hovde, Rebecca Kavan, Matthew Makos
{"title":"Impact of multiyear rate plans on power distributor productivity: Evidence from Alberta","authors":"Mark Newton Lowry,&nbsp;David A. Hovde,&nbsp;Rebecca Kavan,&nbsp;Matthew Makos","doi":"10.1016/j.tej.2023.107288","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2023.107288","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Multiyear rate plans (“MRPs”) are an increasingly popular alternative to traditional utility ratemaking in North America. Rate cases are less frequent, and an attrition relief mechanism (“ARM”) escalates revenue between rate cases on some basis other than the utility’s contemporaneous cost growth. An approach to ARM design has developed in North America that is based on price and productivity indexing. Evidence filed in support of indexed ARMs frequently includes studies of the efficiency of subject utilities. Stronger utility performance incentives are a theoretical advantage of MRPs but few empirical studies have quantified this advantage. A proceeding in Alberta, where indexed ARMs are used, has yielded evidence that MRPs can accelerate utility productivity growth.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":35642,"journal":{"name":"Electricity Journal","volume":"36 5","pages":"Article 107288"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50187883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Wholesale price dynamics in the evolving Texas power grid 德克萨斯电网发展中的批发价格动态
Electricity Journal Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2023.107287
Xiaodong Du , Yue Zhao , Adria E. Brooks
{"title":"Wholesale price dynamics in the evolving Texas power grid","authors":"Xiaodong Du ,&nbsp;Yue Zhao ,&nbsp;Adria E. Brooks","doi":"10.1016/j.tej.2023.107287","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2023.107287","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Our study conducts an innovative analysis of the power grid from a network perspective, shedding light on crucial aspects of the wholesale electricity market in Texas. By employing a power system engineering model, we construct a transmission network representation, presenting a novel contribution to the economics literature. Through our analysis of the network matrix, we delve into the characteristics of the Texas power grid, specifically focusing on the structural changes resulting from the Competitive Renewable Energy Zone (CREZ) project and their impacts on nodal prices. The empirical analysis provides additional evidence that ignoring changes in the transmission grid leads to biased estimates of various coefficients. This includes the spatial dependence coefficient, as well as the coefficients associated with control variables such as wind production and load. These empirical findings underscore the significance and distinctive value of network analysis in studying power grids.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":35642,"journal":{"name":"Electricity Journal","volume":"36 5","pages":"Article 107287"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50187885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Building a green future: Examining the job creation potential of electricity, heating, and storage in low-carbon buildings 建设绿色未来:研究低碳建筑中电力、供暖和储能的就业潜力
Electricity Journal Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2023.107274
Benjamin K. Sovacool , Darrick Evensen , Thomas A. Kwan , Vincent Petit
{"title":"Building a green future: Examining the job creation potential of electricity, heating, and storage in low-carbon buildings","authors":"Benjamin K. Sovacool ,&nbsp;Darrick Evensen ,&nbsp;Thomas A. Kwan ,&nbsp;Vincent Petit","doi":"10.1016/j.tej.2023.107274","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2023.107274","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Job creation is paramount when considering global transitions to low-carbon, clean-energy solutions. The building sector, critical to reducing greenhouse gas emissions on a global scale, has technologies available that rely on electricity rather than fossil fuels for energy and indoor heating and cooling. Solar photovoltaic, energy storage in the form of prosumer batteries, and heat pumps represent three readily deployable solutions to reduce carbon emissions in both new and retrofitted buildings. This study investigates the creation of jobs for each solution and then for all three combined across key countries in North America, Europe, and Asia. While other studies have explored aggregated job creation within nations, regions or globally, this first-of-a-kind study employs a micro-level approach examining six individual building archetypes: residential, hospital, hotel, office, retail, and education. Using the best available data as of 2022, the first-order assessment finds that more than 2 million new jobs and more than 141 million job years can be generated in Europe and the United States alone during the transition to net zero living.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":35642,"journal":{"name":"Electricity Journal","volume":"36 5","pages":"Article 107274"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50187864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
India’s path towards energy independence and a clean future: Harnessing india’s renewable edge for cost-effective energy independence by 2047 印度走向能源独立和清洁未来的道路:利用印度的可再生能源优势,到2047年实现经济高效的能源独立
Electricity Journal Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2023.107273
Nikit Abhyankar , Priyanka Mohanty , Shruti Deorah, Nihan Karali, Umed Paliwal, Jessica Kersey, Amol Phadke
{"title":"India’s path towards energy independence and a clean future: Harnessing india’s renewable edge for cost-effective energy independence by 2047","authors":"Nikit Abhyankar ,&nbsp;Priyanka Mohanty ,&nbsp;Shruti Deorah,&nbsp;Nihan Karali,&nbsp;Umed Paliwal,&nbsp;Jessica Kersey,&nbsp;Amol Phadke","doi":"10.1016/j.tej.2023.107273","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2023.107273","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>India’s heavy dependence on imported oil (90 %) and industrial coking coal (80 %) exposes the country to the volatility in global energy markets, impacting foreign exchange reserves &amp; economy-wide inflation. This study assesses a pathway for India to meet its growing energy needs &amp; achieve near-complete energy independence by 2047, focused on India’s three largest energy consuming sectors –power, transport, and industry — which collectively account for more than 80 % of energy consumption and energy-related CO2 emissions. We find that India can achieve energy independence through aggressive deployment of clean technology – renewables, electric vehicles, and green hydrogen - reducing the fossil energy imports by 90 % (or $240 billion). Clean energy deployment will inflation-proof India’s energy expenditure, create $2.5 trillion in net consumer savings, and avoid over 4 million air pollution related premature deaths by 2047. India’s electricity demand could increase nearly fivefold to over 6500 TWh/yr by 2047, while CO2 emissions from power, transport, and industrial sectors will peak in the early 2030 s before dropping to ∼800 million tons/year. Clean energy deployment will be more capital-intensive, needing a net additional investment of $1.5 trillion. Managing the clean energy transition would require significant policy support, including deployment mandates for cost-effective clean technologies, financial support for emerging technologies, long-term infrastructure planning, accelerating domestic manufacturing, and planning for a just transition.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":35642,"journal":{"name":"Electricity Journal","volume":"36 5","pages":"Article 107273"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50187866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Electricity Price spirals now or later: An emerging market experience 电价现在或以后都会螺旋上升:新兴市场的经验
Electricity Journal Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2023.107272
Sonal Gupta , Mohammad Younus Bhat
{"title":"Electricity Price spirals now or later: An emerging market experience","authors":"Sonal Gupta ,&nbsp;Mohammad Younus Bhat","doi":"10.1016/j.tej.2023.107272","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2023.107272","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Time series models have been employed to identify the structural breaks and the existence of volatility based on the behavior and direction of electricity prices. The models were tuned and validated with dataset consisting of the daily spot electricity prices of 13 bid areas of the Indian exchange-traded market for ten years. The Indian exchange-traded market is a diversified market divided into 13 bid areas, each consisting of states with unique trading characteristics. Hence it is vital to conduct an in-depth analysis of each to identify the problematic areas, key reasons behind it and further tame it, which has never been done before. The results revealed that the bid areas S1 and S2 depicts negative leverage effect predominantly due to the elections and transmission constraints. Whereas rest of the areas shows positive result with less price spirals due to changes in regulation, weather and new operational plants. Insights from the research encourages power market participants to further apply forecasting techniques and prepare a price risk mitigation model and reach out at a global level.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":35642,"journal":{"name":"Electricity Journal","volume":"36 5","pages":"Article 107272"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50187867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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