Jeyhun I. Mikayilov, Ryan Alyamani, Abdulelah Darandary, Muhammad Javid, Fakhri J. Hasanov
{"title":"Modeling and forecasting industrial electricity demand for Saudi Arabia: Uncovering regional characteristics","authors":"Jeyhun I. Mikayilov, Ryan Alyamani, Abdulelah Darandary, Muhammad Javid, Fakhri J. Hasanov","doi":"10.1016/j.tej.2023.107331","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study aims to investigate and forecast Saudi Arabia's industrial electricity consumption at the regional level. By applying structural time series modeling to annual data from 1990 to 2019, we find the electricity demand's long-run income and price elasticities to vary across regions. Also, the underlying energy demand trend analysis indicates efficiency improvements in industrial electricity consumption patterns in all regions. In the low-case scenario, we project the 2030 demand to be 11.6 terawatt-hours (TWh), 63.5 TWh, 0.7 TWh, and 6.8 TWh for the central, eastern, southern, and western operation areas, respectively, with the total demand forecast to be 82.5 TWh. The study's findings can help policymakers understand the effect of future energy policies and economic growth trajectories.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":35642,"journal":{"name":"Electricity Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040619023000982/pdfft?md5=b9b0dd3a4a336948d142505b5aa22684&pid=1-s2.0-S1040619023000982-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Electricity Journal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040619023000982","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"Social Sciences","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This study aims to investigate and forecast Saudi Arabia's industrial electricity consumption at the regional level. By applying structural time series modeling to annual data from 1990 to 2019, we find the electricity demand's long-run income and price elasticities to vary across regions. Also, the underlying energy demand trend analysis indicates efficiency improvements in industrial electricity consumption patterns in all regions. In the low-case scenario, we project the 2030 demand to be 11.6 terawatt-hours (TWh), 63.5 TWh, 0.7 TWh, and 6.8 TWh for the central, eastern, southern, and western operation areas, respectively, with the total demand forecast to be 82.5 TWh. The study's findings can help policymakers understand the effect of future energy policies and economic growth trajectories.
Electricity JournalBusiness, Management and Accounting-Business and International Management
CiteScore
5.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
95
审稿时长
31 days
期刊介绍：
The Electricity Journal is the leading journal in electric power policy. The journal deals primarily with fuel diversity and the energy mix needed for optimal energy market performance, and therefore covers the full spectrum of energy, from coal, nuclear, natural gas and oil, to renewable energy sources including hydro, solar, geothermal and wind power. Recently, the journal has been publishing in emerging areas including energy storage, microgrid strategies, dynamic pricing, cyber security, climate change, cap and trade, distributed generation, net metering, transmission and generation market dynamics. The Electricity Journal aims to bring together the most thoughtful and influential thinkers globally from across industry, practitioners, government, policymakers and academia. The Editorial Advisory Board is comprised of electric industry thought leaders who have served as regulators, consultants, litigators, and market advocates. Their collective experience helps ensure that the most relevant and thought-provoking issues are presented to our readers, and helps navigate the emerging shape and design of the electricity/energy industry.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
