沙特阿拉伯工业电力需求建模与预测:揭示区域特征

Q1 Social Sciences

Electricity Journal Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI:10.1016/j.tej.2023.107331

Jeyhun I. Mikayilov, Ryan Alyamani, Abdulelah Darandary, Muhammad Javid, Fakhri J. Hasanov

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在调查和预测沙特阿拉伯的工业电力消费在区域层面。通过对1990 - 2019年的年度数据进行结构时间序列建模，我们发现电力需求的长期收入和价格弹性在不同地区存在差异。此外，基础能源需求趋势分析表明，所有区域的工业用电模式的效率都有所提高。在低情景下，我们预计2030年中部、东部、南部和西部运营区域的需求分别为11.6太瓦时(TWh)、63.5太瓦时、0.7太瓦时和6.8太瓦时，总需求预测为82.5太瓦时。这项研究的发现可以帮助决策者了解未来能源政策和经济增长轨迹的影响。

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Modeling and forecasting industrial electricity demand for Saudi Arabia: Uncovering regional characteristics

This study aims to investigate and forecast Saudi Arabia's industrial electricity consumption at the regional level. By applying structural time series modeling to annual data from 1990 to 2019, we find the electricity demand's long-run income and price elasticities to vary across regions. Also, the underlying energy demand trend analysis indicates efficiency improvements in industrial electricity consumption patterns in all regions. In the low-case scenario, we project the 2030 demand to be 11.6 terawatt-hours (TWh), 63.5 TWh, 0.7 TWh, and 6.8 TWh for the central, eastern, southern, and western operation areas, respectively, with the total demand forecast to be 82.5 TWh. The study's findings can help policymakers understand the effect of future energy policies and economic growth trajectories.

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来源期刊

Electricity Journal Business, Management and Accounting-Business and International Management

CiteScore

5.80

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

31 days

期刊介绍： The Electricity Journal is the leading journal in electric power policy. The journal deals primarily with fuel diversity and the energy mix needed for optimal energy market performance, and therefore covers the full spectrum of energy, from coal, nuclear, natural gas and oil, to renewable energy sources including hydro, solar, geothermal and wind power. Recently, the journal has been publishing in emerging areas including energy storage, microgrid strategies, dynamic pricing, cyber security, climate change, cap and trade, distributed generation, net metering, transmission and generation market dynamics. The Electricity Journal aims to bring together the most thoughtful and influential thinkers globally from across industry, practitioners, government, policymakers and academia. The Editorial Advisory Board is comprised of electric industry thought leaders who have served as regulators, consultants, litigators, and market advocates. Their collective experience helps ensure that the most relevant and thought-provoking issues are presented to our readers, and helps navigate the emerging shape and design of the electricity/energy industry.