European Journal of Economic and Social Systems最新文献

{"title":"Expectations, interactions between agents and technological regimes","authors":"C. Bas","doi":"10.1051/EJESS:2001109","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/EJESS:2001109","url":null,"abstract":"– We argue here two types of interactions within an organization are crucial for understanding how the making of expectations is structured. Our basic assumption is that the making of expectations is realized with different manners in a small firm which works in an entrepreneurial regime than in a large firm of the ologopolistic or routinized regime (see Winter, 1984). We follow the very revelant analysis carried out by Swann and Gilll (1993). In a young small firm with a (very) small number of individuals, in other words when the complexity is weak, the exchange of information among the members is easier than in the case of a larger firm. On the other hand, the process of decision-making is more rapid. The expectations will be flexible. And conversely for the large firms of a routinized regime, because the making expectations is based on (organizational) routines which are the mean to cope with the stronger complexity due to the large number of individual agents. The process of expectations revision will be longer and expectations more difficult to modify. The existence of two different schemes, with regards to the making of expectations, entails some consequences on the stability of growth for each of both technological regimes. We will show the technological regimes have different properties in terms of stability of growth trajectory. The way by which the expectations are made explains these differences. Classification Codes: L2, O0, A1. 1. Expectations and interactions between economic agents: a general framework Economics shares with other sciences the idea the interactions between agents produce effects and new structures. Mainstream thought, founded on general equilibrium analysis, identifies only the interactions built on the relationships in competitive markets. Interactions outside of the market, externalities, may be dealt with by the establishment of property rights. Other approaches focus mainly on the interactions outside of the market for explaining the dynamic properties of evolution. For instance, in the epidemic * Centre Walras, Universite Lyon-2, Faculte de Sciences Economiques, 16 Quai Cl. Bernard, 69365 Lyon 07, France. E-mail: lebas@univ-lyon2.fr","PeriodicalId":352454,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Economic and Social Systems","volume":"93 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127048137","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Keynes's Lost Distinction Between Industrial and Financial Circulation of Money","authors":"J. Jespersen","doi":"10.3166/EJESS.23.1.119-134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3166/EJESS.23.1.119-134","url":null,"abstract":"Although financial circulation is an important part of banks' balance sheets in the form of savings deposits, this is hardly discussed in monetary circuit theory. In this paper, we argue that monetary circuit theory would be more coherent if it were expanded to incorporate some aspects of Keynes's view on financial circulation. As a matter of fact, it is financial circulation which contributed significantly to the inflated asset bubble in the first place and to the credit crunch in the second round. Hence, bank lending, which creates means of payment, should be regulated and monitored closely. In particular, banks should be divided into two categories: industrial or business banks, where deposits are used as means of payment (and covered by a State guarantee), and financial banks, where deposits carry an interest, but are not guaranteed by legal arrangement. This regulation would limit the amount of means of payment to what is required for production and trade, and would still make it possible for the central bank to pursue a flexible monetary policy. This insight can be obtained by combining monetary circuit theory and Keynes's analysis of industrial and financial circulation, as put forward in his Treatise on Money.","PeriodicalId":352454,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Economic and Social Systems","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123056712","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dimension reduction of technical indicators for the prediction of financial time series - Application to the BEL20 Market Index","authors":"A. Lendasse, J. Lee, E. D. Bodt, V. Wertz, M. Verleysen","doi":"10.1051/EJESS:2001114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/EJESS:2001114","url":null,"abstract":"Prediction of financial time series using artificial neural networks has been the subject of many publications, even if the predictability of financial series remains a subject of scientific debate in the financial literature. Facing this difficulty, analysts often consider a large number of exogenous indica- tors, which makes the fitting of neural networks extremely difficult. In this paper, we analyze how to aggregate a large number of indicators in a smaller number using -possibly nonlinear- projection methods. Nonlinear projection methods are shown to be equivalent to the linear Principal Component Analysis when the prediction tool used on the new variables is linear. Furthermore, the computation of the nonlinear projection gives an objective way to evaluate the number of resulting indicators needed for the prediction. Finally, the advantages of nonlinear projection could be further exploited by using a subsequent nonlinear prediction model. The methodology developed in the paper is validated on data from the BEL20 market index, using systematic cross-validation results. Classification Codes: G00, G14.","PeriodicalId":352454,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Economic and Social Systems","volume":"98 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131401635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Welfare systems and social services during the systemic crisis of cognitive capitalism","authors":"S. Lucarelli, Carlo Vercellone","doi":"10.3166/EJESS.24.77-97","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3166/EJESS.24.77-97","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this article is to show that, contrary to neoliberal belief, social welfare services and spending should be recognised as the driving force behind a development dynamics based on knowledge-intensive production. In the first part, we shall briefly present the relationship between public debt and private debt. In the second part, we shall present a series of stylised facts which highlight the key role played by welfare state institutions in the genesis and development of a knowledge-based economy. In the third part, these general considerations will be corroborated through an international comparison between the Nordic welfare model and the Anglo-Saxon welfare model. This comparison reveals a strong positive correlation between the level of development of welfare state institutions and that of a knowledge-based economy.","PeriodicalId":352454,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Economic and Social Systems","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132274428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An evolutionary model of voting","authors":"Juan D. Montoro-Pons, Miguel A. Puchades-Navarro","doi":"10.1051/EJESS:2001103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/EJESS:2001103","url":null,"abstract":"Collective allocation of resources that takes place in po- litical markets is characterized by the complex exchange that emerges among the individuals involved. Traditional Public Choice models de- part from individual rational choice in a setup in which many of its strict requirements need not hold. This paper introduces a model of social interaction among agents in a simple political market which de- parts from bounded rationality and evolutionary dynamics as the key mechanisms that drive individual behavior. Learning plays a signicant role as it allows to establish an individual link between decisions and collective outcomes. The model is that of a representative democracy with two parties in which individuals are restricted to a one dimensional policy space. The main ndings from computational experiments allow us to revise the results of traditional models, specially those related to the voting paradox. We nd that turnout levels may be higher than ex- pected in a population composed of fully rational agents, and that there is a rationale for abstention that stresses the role of limited informa- tion, the discounting of the future, and the extent of the redistributive policies. Classication Codes. D72.","PeriodicalId":352454,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Economic and Social Systems","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132323763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cellular automata and consumer behaviour","authors":"Jean-François Rouhaud","doi":"10.1051/EJESS:2000107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/EJESS:2000107","url":null,"abstract":"The concept of cellular automata originates in research by J. Von Neumann about forty years ago. Nevertheless, marketing applications remain scarce. That's why this paper analyses, with the help of a simulation model, how the use of cellular automata can visualize interactions between consumers and forecast the evolution of markets. The CAMAC model is characterized by an eco- nomic space as a bidimensional torus and consumers as multi-state probabilistic cellular automata able to go through as many different states as there are different competing products on the market. Various consumer behaviours are studied: non- conformism, following opinion leaders, sensitiveness to other individuals, brand loyalty, variety search, individual geographic and relational mobility, family size and internal purchase decision processes. Other socio-economic parameters such as the market size, the inter-individual distance, the number of competing products or the kind of goods are introduced. This model is tested and at last its limitations and its interest are pondered.","PeriodicalId":352454,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Economic and Social Systems","volume":"130 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127584426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A bio-mimetic approach to marketing segmentation: Principles and comparative analysis","authors":"J. Aurifeille","doi":"10.1051/EJESS:2000111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/EJESS:2000111","url":null,"abstract":"– A regression algorithm is proposed for partitioning a population into clusters characterised by homogeneous models and predictions. This algorithm, Typren, is based on the hybridisation of a genetic algorithm with linear regression. An empirical illustration is provided, using real marketing data, which compares Typren with the fuzzy clustering approach, Glimmix, based on a regression mixture model. Typren provides better predictivity and better within-cluster homogeneity of predictions. However, the results are slightly less robust compared to Glimmix.","PeriodicalId":352454,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Economic and Social Systems","volume":"73 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115297587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Cognitive Theory of the Firm","authors":"B. Nooteboom","doi":"10.4337/9781848447424","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/9781848447424","url":null,"abstract":"This paper reviews and criticizes existing theories of the firm, which take a technical or a governance perspective. One point of criticism is that they do not offer an adequate treatment of learning and innovation, while such treatment is of high priority. With some exceptions, existing governance theories, in economics, neglect the importance of trust. This paper offers a cognitive theory to deal with learning, innovation, and trust. It also incorporates technical and governance perspectives, but emphasizes a competence perspective, in \"dynamic capabilities\" of innovation and learning. On the basis of a constructivist theory of knowledge, it offers the notion of \"cognitive distance\", and proposes that the boundaries of the firm result from the determination of \"optimal cognitive distance\". This is achieved by a \"cognitive focus\", yielding the notion of a firm as a \"focusing device\".","PeriodicalId":352454,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Economic and Social Systems","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129657316","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The division and organisation of knowledge","authors":"B. Loasby","doi":"10.1051/EJESS:2000114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/EJESS:2000114","url":null,"abstract":"Hume demonstrated the impossibility of proving any general empirical proposition, and turned to the question of how people acquired 'knowl- edge'. Adam Smith postulated a human need to make sense of phenomena by imposing patterns, which are replaced when they systematically fail; this process is accelerated by specialisation, which leads to a differentiation of locally-efficient frameworks of thought and action. Thus the division of labour results in the divi- sion of knowledge - both 'knowledge-how' and 'knowledge-that', or capabilities - and a consequential increase in the total knowledge in a community. Marshall added a principle of variation within an evolutionary cognitive process, and also the need for multiple forms of organisation. Learning is not a distinctive activity but a characteristic of human existence; it requires frameworks, or institution, which are themselves subject to evolution. Penrose analysed the growth of knowl- edge within a business, Richardson focussed on the importance of similarity and complementarity across capabilities, and the consequential need for linkages between businesses. Firms need both internal and external organisation; in an important sense, learning is collective as well as individual.","PeriodicalId":352454,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Economic and Social Systems","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133899248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Minimum Wage, Credit Rationing and Unemployment in a Monetary Economy","authors":"G. F. Davanzati, Andrea Pacella","doi":"10.3166/EJESS.21.179-194","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3166/EJESS.21.179-194","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this paper is to analyse the theoretical links between minimum wage legislation and the level of employment in the theoretical framework of the monetary theory of production (MTP) in which the high-wage effect operates under the constraint of credit rationing at the expense of small firms. It will show that a rise in wages via external intervention, and particularly by means of a minimum wage law, induces firms to accumulate more capital and that this has a positive effect on the level of employment, thus going counter to the mainstream view that labour market deregulation generates positive outcomes. Moreover it will show that the high-wage effect can solve the paradox of profits in the MTP owing to bankruptcies of firms facing credit rationing.","PeriodicalId":352454,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Economic and Social Systems","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127681717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}