Cellular automata and consumer behaviour

Abstract

The concept of cellular automata originates in research by J. Von Neumann about forty years ago. Nevertheless, marketing applications remain scarce. That's why this paper analyses, with the help of a simulation model, how the use of cellular automata can visualize interactions between consumers and forecast the evolution of markets. The CAMAC model is characterized by an eco- nomic space as a bidimensional torus and consumers as multi-state probabilistic cellular automata able to go through as many different states as there are different competing products on the market. Various consumer behaviours are studied: non- conformism, following opinion leaders, sensitiveness to other individuals, brand loyalty, variety search, individual geographic and relational mobility, family size and internal purchase decision processes. Other socio-economic parameters such as the market size, the inter-individual distance, the number of competing products or the kind of goods are introduced. This model is tested and at last its limitations and its interest are pondered.