Global Environmental Change最新文献

{"title":"Land-use spillovers from environmental policy interventions","authors":"Diana Ramírez-Mejía ,&nbsp;Yves Zinngrebe ,&nbsp;Erle C. Ellis ,&nbsp;Peter H. Verburg","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Environmental policy interventions are crucial for addressing biodiversity loss and climate change, yet their effectiveness can be compromised by land-use spillovers, where efforts to reduce impacts in one place displace them elsewhere. Despite growing recognition of spillovers, they remain unevenly defined, inconsistently measured, and poorly integrated into policy evaluation and accountability frameworks. This systematic review synthesizes current research on land-use spillovers triggered by environmental policies, including carbon pricing, protected areas, supply chain interventions, and payments for ecosystem services. We identify three dominant pathways: leakage, indirect land use change (iLUC), and positive spillovers, emerging under common conditions such as weak enforcement, market integration, limited livelihood alternatives, and accessible frontier lands. These conditions are shaped by broader institutional, economic, demographic, and biophysical drivers, yet are rarely integrated into policy design and evaluation. While methods to evaluate spillover effects range from global scale ex ante models to local ex post spatial and econometric analyses, few studies bridge scales or connect findings to international policy frameworks such as the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) or the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Cases are concentrated in climate-linked interventions and in South America, leaving important geographic and sectoral blind spots. This limits their relevance for designing policies that minimize displaced impacts and foster more durable outcomes. Advancing spillover research will require common frameworks, more consistent methodologies, and multi-scale tools that can enhance comparability, attribution, and integration into environmental governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"92 ","pages":"Article 103013"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144155007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Just social-ecological tipping scales: A mid-range social theory of change in coal and carbon intensive regions","authors":"Jenny Lieu ,&nbsp;Diana Mangalagiu ,&nbsp;Amanda Martínez-Reyes ,&nbsp;Mauro Sarrica","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103000","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103000","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Energy transitions are often studied using socio-technical transitions, just transitions and more recently, social-ecological tipping points (SETPs). While they can be important starting points for conceptualising large-scale systemic change, when applied within a regional context, they often fail to appropriately explain change. SETP concept is receiving increasing attention, but its heuristic value still requires further empirical validation. While many energy transitions are still in a pre-tipping point phase, the lack of empirically validated tipping points raises a question of applicability if these frameworks are unable to capture change at the regional scale. In this paper, we introduce a new inductive framework, Just Social-Ecological Tipping Scales (JSETS), based on cross-case analysis in coal and carbon-intensive regions (CCIRs). The framework helps understanding systemic change in regional contexts by identifying transition states. We then analyse traits in these transition states by assessing enablers and barriers of triggering factors and actors over temporal and spatial scales as well as justice dimensions. This analysis helps us to identify cumulate changes leading to four tipping scales, which can move a region from one transition state to another. By identifying both transition states and tipping scales, we can anticipate the potential traits needed for a CCIR to move towards a just transformation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"92 ","pages":"Article 103000"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143928667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Driving ecologically unequal exchange: A global analysis of multinational corporations’ role in environmental conflicts","authors":"Marcel Llavero-Pasquina","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Multinational corporations are being confronted by activists and scholars over their involvement in environmental conflicts and human rights violations. In response, many multinational corporations engage in human rights and ESG voluntary initiatives to mitigate their impacts and publicly bolster their contribution to society. These actions relate to disputed economic development theories which assert that foreign direct investment allows multinational companies to contribute to economic growth, human rights, and environmental well-being in so-called developing countries. To test these arguments, this article presents the largest statistical analysis on the role of multinational corporations in environmental conflicts based on data from the Global Atlas of Environmental Justice including more than 3,300 environmental conflicts and 5,500 companies. The results show how multinational corporations, overwhelmingly domiciled in the Global North, are involved in environmental conflicts in the Global South. Environmental conflicts with the presence of foreign companies disproportionately involve commodities with biophysical properties ideally suited to facilitate ecologically unequal exchange and show more socioeconomic impacts and worse outcomes than cases without foreign companies. These results cast doubt on the validity of corporate sustainability assessments based entirely on company self-reported data, and call for scholars and practitioners to centre the lived realities of those resisting corporate extractivism to evaluate the socio-ecological performance of firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"92 ","pages":"Article 103006"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144071417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Why has the Brazilian Cerrado been left behind by voluntary environmental policies?","authors":"Joyce Brandão ,&nbsp;Fatima Cristina Cardoso ,&nbsp;Rachael Garrett","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The expansion of soy production has been a deforestation driver in Brazil in both the Amazon and the highly biodiverse Cerrado savannah ecosystem. To tackle this problem the soy industry implemented a sector-wide zero-deforestation policy in 2006 in the Amazon called the Soy Moratorium. The Soy Moratorium sharply reduced the soy-driven deforestation in the Amazon. However, to date, despite substantial soy deforestation, the neighbouring Cerrado remains unprotected. Here we ask why no comparable zero-deforestation agreement was implemented in the Cerrado. To answer this question, we integrated theory on policy adoption and selection from the voluntary environmental policy literature with theory on policy process and feasibility from public policy, political economy, and organizational theory. This expanded framework enabled us to better understand how historical, political and geographical contextual factors shaped the differing policy adoption outcomes in the Amazon and Cerrado. We then conducted 26 in-depth interviews, including with key private sector decision-makers on policy adoption to understand the relative importance of different potential factors. We found that the differences in public awareness, national politics and narratives, changes in trade relationships, leadership and sunk investments influenced why an agreement emerged in the Amazon and not the Cerrado. Despite these circumstances, a new political window for Cerrado conservation policies has recently emerged with Brazil’s political shifts to a left-centre coalition and efforts to extend new due-diligence deforestation regulations to other wooded lands, including the Cerrado.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"92 ","pages":"Article 103005"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143931537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Politics of Sustainable Finance for Forests: Interests, beliefs and advocacy coalitions shaping forest sustainability criteria in the making of the EU Taxonomy","authors":"A. Begemann ,&nbsp;C. Dolriis ,&nbsp;A. Onatunji ,&nbsp;C. Chimisso ,&nbsp;G. Winkel","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The EU’s sustainable finance regulation classifying sustainable economic activities — known as “taxonomy” in short — has made headlines due to controversies about what can be considered a sustainable investment, and what not. This study investigates the evolution of advocacy coalitions and their strategies in the development of the taxonomy’s forestry criteria. It is built on an interpretive process tracing, involving 46 expert interviews conducted in 2019, 2021 and 2022, and an extensive document analysis. Our findings illustrate a complex process that is connected to a diversity of sectoral policies. This cross-sectoral nature of the policy process enables the emergence of cross-sectoral alliances, highlighting strikingly different policy beliefs and economic as well as bureaucratic/political interests connected to these. Owing to a rich set of strategies employed, and deals made at different policy levels, as well as an overall lack of transparency, the proclaimed “science-based” decision-making is de facto turned into a highly contested political minefield. Science – insofar involved – has contributed to the legitimisation of divergent beliefs rather than mediate among them. We conclude by arguing that the taxonomy’s potential to globally influence the regulation of sustainable finance as a “gold standard” is questionable because of the ambiguity resulting from the political struggle.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"92 ","pages":"Article 103001"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143941958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing land use change trajectories following food insecurity shocks in 25 low- and middle-income countries","authors":"Evan Patrick,&nbsp;Van Butsic,&nbsp;Matthew D. Potts","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.102999","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.102999","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Food insecurity is a perennial problem in much of the developing world, with gains against hunger backsliding in recent years and climate change predicted to accelerate this trend. Food insecurity is highly disruptive to rural livelihoods and can lead to dramatic shifts in food production strategies and resultant land use. However, studies to date have yet to outline the overarching patterns of land use change that can result from food insecurity. We elucidate the impact of food insecurity events between 2013 and 2020 in 25 low- and middle-income countries on resulting land use change and demographics. Using propensity score matching, we create a counterfactual and assess changes in forest cover, crop cover, population and nighttime luminosity between regions that experience food insecurity and comparable food-secure regions. Land use change theory, specifically the classical trajectories of agricultural intensification, land rent theory, and regime shifts help to explain observed land use trajectories. We find that food insecurity events lead to around a 4 % decline in population and a 3 % decline in cropped areas, alongside a 4 % increase in forest cover compared to control regions. Additionally, we show that drought-driven food insecurity drives impacts on land use and conflict-driven food insecurity shows greater impacts on population and nighttime luminosity. Food insecurity shocks result in an increase in population and crop cover in urban areas despite losses in adjoining rural land, suggesting that food insecurity drives local rural to urban migration. Furthermore, by assessing the impacts of discrete food insecurity events in three countries, we find that regional contexts mediate impacts by producing variable land use change trajectories.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"92 ","pages":"Article 102999"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143843102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating climate mitigation and adaptation in the UK: A new anticipatory narrative for achieving “Climate Resilient Net Zero” in preparing for heat risk","authors":"Candice Howarth ,&nbsp;Niall McLoughlin ,&nbsp;Ellie Murtagh ,&nbsp;Andrew P. Kythreotis ,&nbsp;James Porter","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.102994","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.102994","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate Policy Integration (CPI) is key to mainstreaming and harmonising mitigation and adaptation in policy responses to climate change worldwide. However, little is known about how CPI can be applied in practice, beyond single policy areas, particularly in the integration of adaptation and mitigation responses. We investigate this in the context of responding to climate impacts such as extreme heat, a climate risk growing in international importance. Using the 2022 UK heatwaves as a case study, our paper explores: (a) the extent to which key stakeholders consider the integration of adaptation and mitigation to be important; (b) perceptions of the feasibility of integration; and (c) main enablers and/or challenges with integration of adaptation and mitigation. To do this, interviews (N = 38) and four focus groups (N = 21) were conducted with policymakers, first responders, utility providers, and civil society responsible for managing heat risks. Our findings reveal a tension that CPI is essential to achieving a “climate resilient net zero”, yet unrealised. To facilitate CPI, we present a new anticipatory narrative with international and multi-contextual significance, that considers the convergence of key elements integral to effective CPI decision-making in the context of heat risk: (1) ‘Challenges’ − that may hinder, undermine, or act as a barrier to the integration of mitigation and adaptation; (2) ‘Enablers’ − which support, or help to facilitate greater integration, or synergies, between mitigation and adaptation; (3) ‘Framings’ − different ways participants described, defined or interpreted the issue of integration; (4) ‘Importance’ – the extent to which participants thought that integrating mitigation and adaptation was important; and (5) ‘Feasibility’ – or how possible integration is. We conclude that unless all five elements are fully addressed iteratively by end-users when tackling and understanding heat risks, new problems may emerge.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"92 ","pages":"Article 102994"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143629391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Attributing deforestation-driven biodiversity decline in the Gran Chaco to agricultural commodity supply chains","authors":"Isabel Carpenter ,&nbsp;Tobias Kuemmerle ,&nbsp;Alfredo Romero-Muñoz ,&nbsp;Sebastián Aguiar ,&nbsp;Ignacio Gasparri ,&nbsp;Michael J. Lathuillière ,&nbsp;Sofía Nanni ,&nbsp;Vivian Ribero ,&nbsp;Matthias Baumann","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Agricultural expansion is one of the principal drivers of biodiversity loss globally. Attributing biodiversity loss to domestically consumed versus internationally traded agricultural production is vital to make supply chains more transparent and sustainable. However, such an attribution is challenging due to the complexity of agricultural supply chains and the lack of tools and data. Here, we attributed biodiversity decline in the Gran Chaco, specifically the Argentinian and Paraguayan Chaco, to both soy and beef agricultural commodities and the domestic and foreign demand for these. We integrated three sources of multitemporal data at a subnational scale (data on mammal diversity, land use change and commodity trade) to first differentiate pasture- versus cropland-driven biodiversity decline and second, to assess the share of the decline associated with domestically consumed and internationally traded Argentinian and Paraguayan soy and Paraguayan beef. In doing so, we provided four novel insights. First, pasture expansion had a greater relative biodiversity impact than cropland expansion. Second, the biodiversity decline associated with domestic and international consumption depended on both the quantity of imports and the precise location of production and sourcing. Third, domestic consumption of commodities in Argentina and Paraguay was associated with a much greater risk of driving decline in biodiversity than agricultural exports from these nations. Fourth, considering only one facet of biodiversity risks underestimating the decline in biodiversity linked to agricultural expansion and commodity supply chains. By connecting agriculturally driven biodiversity decline in the Gran Chaco to commodity supply chains, we highlight the importance of increasing the transparency of supply chains to make them more sustainable. Doing so will be critical to prevent further biodiversity loss in not only the Gran Chaco but also the other dry forests of the world.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"92 ","pages":"Article 103011"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138983","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The multifaceted spectra of power − A participatory network analysis on power structures in diverse dryland regions","authors":"Veronica Olofsson ,&nbsp;Maria Mancilla Garcia ,&nbsp;Antonio J. Castro ,&nbsp;Sofía Cortés Calderón ,&nbsp;Amadou Hamath Diallo ,&nbsp;Amanda Jiménez Aceituno ,&nbsp;María D. López-Rodríguez ,&nbsp;Taís Sonetti Gonzalez ,&nbsp;Amanda Sousa Silvino ,&nbsp;Ana Paula Aguiar","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.102984","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.102984","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With intensifying climate change impacts on dryland regions, it is essential to better understand how actors relate to each other to sustainably manage natural resources. The literature on environmental governance networks has studied actor collaborations, but it is only starting to investigate networks that sustain conflictive situations. Moreover, while actors traditionally defined as powerful have received important scholarly attention, those who do not hold formal authority or key financial resources have not, as well as their sources of power. In this paper we analyse Net-Map data to better understand the sources of power of actor groups that traditionally are not perceived as influential, hence they are neglected in actor networks. We use social network analysis and a typology of power to understand these actors’ links in the networks, aiming to decipher what might explain why the traditionally neglected actors are perceived as particularly influential. We apply these methods to local sites in three case countries, all located in dryland regions. Net-Map workshops with diverse groups of participants were held with a focus on agricultural production systems. The results reveal that a broad variety of actors that traditionally have been, and still are, neglected in decision making domains, are perceived as particularly influential in their regions, pointing to the various modes in which power is understood and exercised. The competing interests over natural resources shed light on the role that conflictive tensions played in power relations. Through this work a broader understanding of power asymmetries in actor networks is gained.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"92 ","pages":"Article 102984"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143592614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Transitioning to net Zero: Assessing the impacts on asset impairment, write-downs and the going concern of oil and gas companies operating in the UK","authors":"Hafez Abdo ,&nbsp;Duncan Angwin ,&nbsp;Hakim Ben Othman ,&nbsp;Freeman Brobbey Owusu","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In June 2019, the UK government legislated a net zero target by 2050. This will directly impact the UK oil and gas industry. This study reports perceptions of key oil and gas professionals regarding the impact of transitioning to net zero on impairment, values, write-downs, and going concern in the UK oil and gas industry, as well as required net-zero-related disclosures. Data were collected through 22 interviews, two written responses to our interview questions, and disclosures made by oil and gas companies in their annual reports. We use conservatism and stakeholder theory to inform our results. Our findings confirm there will be serious impacts of the transition to net zero on impairments, asset write-downs, and on the value and going concern of several oil and gas companies. However, these impacts will not fall equally across the industry, and it is likely therefore that stakeholders will be affected differently. Our results contribute, first, to the debate on the impacts of the transition to net zero on key accounting measures of oil and gas companies; second, we identify risks associated with the transition to net zero for these companies and their stakeholders, and we classify the at-risk oil and gas companies operating in the UK; third, we present a collection of disclosure items deemed necessary by our interviewees. Our specified disclosure items may complement those of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) and the Transition Plan Taskforce (TPT).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"92 ","pages":"Article 103004"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143881729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}