Global Environmental Change最新文献

{"title":"The curve: An ethnography of projecting sea level rise under uncertainty","authors":"Jessica O’Reilly ,&nbsp;Michael Oppenheimer","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102947","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102947","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Drawing from a multiyear series of interviews with sea level rise assessors during the development of IPCC’s Working Group I volume of the Sixth Assessment Report—the first time access had been granted to researchers to observe the IPCC process—this article analyzes the social and epistemic challenges and tools (both technical and social) involved in assessing complex, uncertain science questions. This study shows that “the curve”, a representation of future sea level rise, is an example of the human dimensions of the science/policy interaction in three ways. First, IPCC authors’ experiences demonstrate that it is not just the communicative outcomes or political feedback from assessment reports that matter, but also the social and expert processes that produce these assessments. Attempting new assessment techniques to improve understandings of climate science can also improve broader society’s understanding of climate science, impacts and solutions. Second, the human side of global environmental assessments influences the credibility of these organizations. Expert authors accept these volunteer jobs for multiple reasons but their perception of the social experience of assessment influences their buy-in, and ultimately, the legitimacy of the organization. Third, the IPCC is increasingly formalizing its procedures for figure design and generally supports author experimentation with figures. However, less is known about how the social dynamics of chapter teams influences figure design and other assessment elements: we demonstrate this through our ethnographic analysis of the creation of curve figure and text box. The IPCC is a living, breathing organization: assessment work is not formulaic. To understand the science decisions in the report, we must understand how these decisions were made.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102947"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142663187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Australia’s Black Summer wildfires recovery: A difference-in-differences analysis using nightlights","authors":"Sonia Akter","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102743","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102743","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examines how communities of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, recovered from the extreme wildfire event of 2019–2020 (i.e., the Black Summer fires). Using monthly night-time radiance as an indicator of economic activity in a geographic area (i.e., a mesh block) from January 2017 to June 2021, I conducted a spatio-temporal and socio-economic analysis of economic recovery after the 2019–2020 wildfires using the difference-in-differences method. This is the first study to examine the intersectional role of space with time and socio-economic characteristics for extreme wildfire recovery. The findings reveal that wildfire-affected locations had about 0.038σ and 0.026σ lower night-time radiance in major cities and rural hinterlands (i.e., inner regions), respectively, than the unaffected areas. These numbers translate to approximately 30% reduction in economic activities in both areas. The findings remain consistent when using <em>Facebook</em>’s movement range data. The pace of recovery varied spatially across time and socio-economic groups. In rural hinterlands of NSW, wildfire-affected communities, both poor and non-poor, followed a slower recovery trajectory than wildfire-affected city dwellers. In major cities, the economic recovery of poor communities lagged behind non-poor communities. Accounting for such spatial, temporal and socio-economic heterogeneity in the natural hazard recovery process can support the design of equitable wildfire risk reduction and management strategies and programs. If unaddressed, gaps in wildfire recovery can increase location and economic group specific vulnerabilities to future wildfires. Note that nightlights are not a good proxy for economic activity in heavily forested remote and rural areas; thus limiting the application of the use of high frequency satellite data for wildfire recovery analysis only in major cities and rural hinterlands.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 102743"},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2023-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"6551353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rising carbon inequality and its driving factors from 2005 to 2015","authors":"Heran Zheng ,&nbsp;Richard Wood ,&nbsp;Daniel Moran ,&nbsp;Kuishuang Feng ,&nbsp;Alexandre Tisserant ,&nbsp;Meng Jiang ,&nbsp;Edgar G. Hertwich","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102704","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102704","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Carbon inequality is the gap in carbon footprints between the rich and the poor, reflecting an uneven distribution of wealth and mitigation responsibility. Whilst much is known about the level of inequality surrounding responsibility for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, little is known about the evolution in carbon inequality and how the carbon footprints of socio-economic groups have developed over time. Inequality can be reduced either by improving the living standards of the poor or by reducing the overconsumption of the rich, but the choice has very different implications for climate change mitigation. Here, we investigate the carbon footprints of income quintile groups for major 43 economies from 2005 to 2015. We find that most developed economies had declining carbon footprints but expanding carbon inequality, whereas most developing economies had rising footprints but divergent trends in carbon inequality. The top income group in developing economies grew fastest, with its carbon footprint surpassing the top group in developed economies in 2014. Developments are driven by a reduction in GHG intensity in all regions, which is partly offset by income growth in developed countries but more than offset by the rapid growth in selected emerging economies. The top income group in developed economies has achieved the least progress in climate change mitigation, in terms of decline rate, showing resistance of the rich. It shows mitigation efforts could raise carbon inequality. We highlight the necessity of raising the living standard of the poor and consistent mitigation effort is the core of achieving two targets.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 102704"},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"1740822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Social norms and littering – The role of personal responsibility and place attachment at a Pakistani beach","authors":"Abdul Haseeb Chaudhary ,&nbsp;Michael Jay Polonsky ,&nbsp;Nicholas McClaren","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102725","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102725","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This research has applied an integrated norms model using place attachment, anti-littering descriptive and injunctive norms, and anti-littering personal norms to assess anti-littering behavioral intentions in a developing country. The research uses place attachment as a moderating factor to understand the influence of social norms on anti-littering behavioral intentions which has not previously been explored in detail. After a pre-test to validate scales, a survey was conducted among visitors at a beach in Pakistan. This main survey was performed among a sample of 634 respondents to assess direct, mediated, and conditional indirect effect relationships using structural equation modelling and PROCESS model 7. Place attachment was found to strengthen the effect of descriptive norms. The influence of both social norms (i.e., descriptive and injunctive) on anti-littering behavior was only consistent when mediated by personal norms, suggesting the importance of individuals’ own responsibility. Thus, it appears that role of both place attachment and personal norms are vital in discouraging littering. This perspective has important implications because littering in public places such as beaches has been determined as a substantial environmental problem requiring solutions focused on individuals.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 102725"},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"1740823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Overlapping land rights and deforestation in Uganda: 20 years of evidence","authors":"Sarah Walker ,&nbsp;Jennifer Alix-Garcia ,&nbsp;Anne Bartlett ,&nbsp;Jamon Van Den Hoek ,&nbsp;Hannah K. Friedrich ,&nbsp;Paulo J. Murillo-Sandoval ,&nbsp;Rosemary Isoto","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102701","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102701","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The majority of the world’s land is held in customary tenure systems, often with overlapping claims. Designing effective policy to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation requires understanding land management choices within these systems. Using a nation-wide random sample of over 300,000 hectares of forested land in Uganda from 2000 to 2019, we examine how deforestation trends across a system of overlapping rights, known as mailo land tenure, change in response to legal amendments intended to increase land tenure security. Graphical analysis reveals that mailo land has always had higher deforestation rates, compared to private and customary land, which increased relative to other tenure systems beginning in 2010 when a law was passed to protect tenants on mailo land. Statistical analysis controlling for spatial and time effects shows that prior to 2010, trends across tenure systems were similar. After 2010, deforestation increased significantly on land with overlapping rights and then began to decrease after 2017 relative to rates on customary or fully privatized land. We hypothesize that the uptick in deforestation resulted from unintended, increased uncertainty generated by the 2010 law, which changed owner/tenant relations on land with overlapping rights. The decrease in deforestation rates after 2017 was consistent with increased tenure security from an acceleration in the uptake of permanent certificates of occupancy. These findings demonstrate that outcomes under systems of overlapping rights can be destabilized by well-intentioned reform, and that securing tenant rights can reduce deforestation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 102701"},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"2617338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Collaboration and individual performance during disaster response","authors":"A.M. Guerrero ,&nbsp;Ö. Bodin ,&nbsp;D. Nohrstedt ,&nbsp;R. Plummer ,&nbsp;J. Baird ,&nbsp;R. Summers","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102729","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102729","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Disasters occurring in the wake of extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and severity due to climate and anthropogenic changes and require urgent responses under uncertain and dynamic conditions. In these situations, multi-agency collaboration becomes integral to an effective response due to the need to coordinate actions across geographical scales, levels of authority and sectors of society. Consequently there is a need for more knowledge on how to enhance the effectiveness of collaborations in response to disasters. In this study we utilize extremely rare and comprehensive data on multi-stakeholder collaboration during the acute phase of two catastrophic wildfires to investigate performance in relation to four collaboration challenges: sharing information, conflict resolution, reaching agreement i.e. mutual understanding and commitment, on goals and working-methods, and coordinating activities. Our results suggest that agreement between collaborating actors is more important to individual performance than the coordination of activities, and that it is only when agreement exists that the ability to coordinate activities becomes highly important. This study allows, for the first time, insights into the detailed nuances of collaboration among individuals during rapidly evolving disaster situations. Importantly, our analysis suggests that focusing on enhancing agreement in the wake of disasters—and not only on improving coordination—could reduce the devastating effects that disasters have on people and ecosystems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 102729"},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"2617341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global change scenarios in coastal river deltas and their sustainable development implications","authors":"Murray W. Scown ,&nbsp;Frances E. Dunn ,&nbsp;Stefan C. Dekker ,&nbsp;Detlef P. van Vuuren ,&nbsp;Sitar Karabil ,&nbsp;Edwin H. Sutanudjaja ,&nbsp;Maria J. Santos ,&nbsp;Philip S.J. Minderhoud ,&nbsp;Ahjond S. Garmestani ,&nbsp;Hans Middelkoop","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102736","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102736","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Deltas play a critical role in the ambition to achieve global sustainable development given their relatively large shares in population and productive croplands, as well as their precarious low-lying position between upstream river basin development and rising seas. The large pressures on these systems risk undermining the persistence of delta societies, economies, and ecosystems. We analyse possible future development in 49 deltas around the globe under the Shared Socio-economic and Representative Concentration Pathways until 2100. Population density, urban fraction, and total and irrigated cropland fraction are three to twelve times greater in these deltas, on average, than in the rest of the world. Maximum river water discharges are projected to increase by 11–33 % and river sediment discharges are projected to decrease 26–37 % on average, depending on the scenario. Regional sea-level rise reaches almost 1.0 m by 2100 for certain deltas in the worst-case scenario, increasing to almost 2.0 m of relative rise considering land subsidence. Extreme sea levels could be much higher still—reaching over 4.0 m by 2100 for six of the 49 deltas analysed. Socio-economic conditions to support adaptation are the weakest among deltas with the greatest pressures, compounding the challenge of sustainable development. Asian and African deltas stand out as having heightened socio-economic challenges—huge population and land use pressures in most Asian deltas and the Nile delta; low capacity for adaptation in most African deltas and the Irrawaddy delta. Although, deltas in other parts of the world are not immune from these and other pressures, either. Because of unique pressures and processes operating in deltas, as in other “hotspots” such as small islands, mountains, and semi-arid areas, we recommend greater consideration and conceptualisation of environmental processes in global sustainable development agendas and in the Integrated Assessment Models used to guide global policy.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 102736"},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10483986/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10605703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures","authors":"HyeJin Kim ,&nbsp;Garry D. Peterson ,&nbsp;William W.L. Cheung ,&nbsp;Simon Ferrier ,&nbsp;Rob Alkemade ,&nbsp;Almut Arneth ,&nbsp;Jan J. Kuiper ,&nbsp;Sana Okayasu ,&nbsp;Laura Pereira ,&nbsp;Lilibeth A. Acosta ,&nbsp;Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer ,&nbsp;Eefje den Belder ,&nbsp;Tyler D. Eddy ,&nbsp;Justin A Johnson ,&nbsp;Sylvia Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen ,&nbsp;Marcel T.J. Kok ,&nbsp;Paul Leadley ,&nbsp;David Leclère ,&nbsp;Carolyn J. Lundquist ,&nbsp;Carlo Rondinini ,&nbsp;Henrique M. Pereira","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102681","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102681","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people, and quality of life.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 102681"},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"1617367","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Crisis and opportunity: Transforming climate governance for SMEs","authors":"Sam Hampton ,&nbsp;Richard Blundel ,&nbsp;Will Eadson ,&nbsp;Phil Northall ,&nbsp;Katherine Sugar","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102707","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102707","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are key actors in climate change mitigation and adaptation. Their aggregate emissions are significant, and they are disproportionately affected by climate impacts, including extreme weather events. SMEs also play a vital role in shaping the environmental behaviours of individuals, communities, and other businesses. However, these organisations have been largely neglected by climate policies across all levels of government. A series of global crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, war in Europe and the Middle East, and energy price spikes, have posed an existential threat to millions of SMEs, while also acting as a catalyst for the reconfiguration of the social contract between business, society and the state, both temporary and more long-term. In this article, we make the case for increased focus on the governance of SME decarbonisation to address this turbulent context. We outline key challenges facing public policymakers and other governance actors, compare strategic options, identify evidence gaps that hinder effective interventions, and highlight implications for research. In doing so we set out key elements of a renewed social contract for business, society and state relations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 102707"},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"3339583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Knowledge co-production for decision-making in human-natural systems under uncertainty","authors":"Enayat A. Moallemi ,&nbsp;Fateme Zare ,&nbsp;Aniek Hebinck ,&nbsp;Katrina Szetey ,&nbsp;Edmundo Molina-Perez ,&nbsp;Romy L. Zyngier ,&nbsp;Michalis Hadjikakou ,&nbsp;Jan Kwakkel ,&nbsp;Marjolijn Haasnoot ,&nbsp;Kelly K. Miller ,&nbsp;David G. Groves ,&nbsp;Peat Leith ,&nbsp;Brett A. Bryan","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102727","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102727","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Decision-making under uncertainty is important for managing human-natural systems in a changing world. A major source of uncertainty is linked to the multi-actor settings of decisions with poorly understood values, complex relationships, and conflicting management approaches. Despite general agreement across disciplines on co-producing knowledge for viable and inclusive outcomes in a multi-actor context, there is still limited conceptual clarity and no systematic understanding on what co-production means in decision-making under uncertainty and how it can be approached. Here, we use content analysis and clustering to systematically analyse 50 decision-making cases with multiple time and spatial scales across 26 countries and in 9 different sectors in the last decade to serve two aims. The first is to synthesise the key recurring strategies that underpin high quality decision co-production across many cases of diverse features. The second is to identify important deficits and opportunities to leverage existing strategies towards flourishing co-production in support of decision-making. We find that four general strategies emerge centred around: promoting innovation for robust and equitable decisions; broadening the span of co-production across interacting systems; fostering social learning and inclusive participation; and improving pathways to impact. Additionally, five key areas that should be addressed to improve decision co-production are identified in relation to: participation diversity; collaborative action; power relationships; governance inclusivity; and transformative change. Characterising the emergent strategies and their key areas for improvement can help guide future works towards more pluralistic and integrated science and practice.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 102727"},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"1938658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}