{"title":"Adaptive flood risk management: A decision support system integrating deep learning, digital twins, and economic risk assessment","authors":"Miia Chabot , Jean-Louis Bertrand","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103069","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103069","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Floods are among the most destructive climate-related disasters, with their frequency and severity increasing due to climate change and urban expansion. In response to rising claims and insufficient adaptation measures, insurers are progressively withdrawing from high-risk areas, thereby shifting the responsibility for risk management to businesses and municipalities, who must either implement their own solutions or resort to self-insurance. Effective flood risk management requires accurate forecasting, robust financial impact assessments, and decision support systems (DSS) to inform adaptation strategies. Within the framework of the European Union (EU) Floods Directive, this study develops an integrated, AI-powered DSS that combines deep learning-based flood forecasting (ConvLSTM models), economic vulnerability modelling (Joint Research Centre methodology), digital twin simulations, and predictive analytics to support data-driven adaptation planning. The framework was initially applied to assess pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flood risks in the coastal city of Nice, France, and subsequently extended to over 100 public and private sites across three urban municipalities. The findings demonstrate that this methodology improves the accuracy of risk assessments and provides a structured basis for capital allocation, insurability evaluation, and the optimization of adaptation investments. The multi-site deployment revealed significant governance, legal, and behavioural constraints, with public authorities and family-owned businesses responding differently despite comparable risk information. This research shows that integrating AI and digital twin technologies advances the EU Floods Directive’s objectives by enhancing risk mapping, preparedness, and transparency, while supporting public–private partnerships and extending protection to vulnerable populations at risk of losing insurance coverage.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103069"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145217513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Mitigation deterrence and unrealistic expectations: the future costs of forest carbon offsets","authors":"Camilla Moioli , Laurent Drouet , Dominik Roeser , Johannes Emmerling , Hisham Zerriffi","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103068","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103068","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the economic and societal impacts of using Forest Carbon Offsets (FCO) as a negative emissions technology in climate mitigation strategies. FCO includes afforestation, reforestation, and reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) initiatives aimed at achieving global climate targets, such as limiting temperature rise to 2 °C by 2100. Despite their potential, challenges such as the impermanence of carbon storage, overestimation of carbon removal, and mitigation deterrence—where reliance on FCO reduces other climate actions—persist. Using the WITCH integrated assessment model, this study analyzes the effects of FCO on energy sector investments, carbon pricing, and mitigation costs under scenarios with perfect foresight, myopic behavior, and varying degrees of forest carbon loss (FCL). Results indicate that heavy reliance on FCO leads to mitigation deterrence, with renewable and carbon capture investments decreasing by 8.6 % and 31 %, respectively, while fossil fuel investments increase by 1 %. Scenarios with 100 % FCL by 2045 could increase global GDP loss by 0.5 percentage points, surpassing the costs of not using FCO. Non-OECD countries, more vulnerable with lower economic resilience, could face mitigation costs up to 1.7 percentage points higher than OECD countries in similar FCL scenarios, raising equity concerns in climate policy. This research underscores the need for careful FCO management, accurate carbon sequestration estimates, and equitable policy frameworks to prevent moral hazards and ensure effective climate action. Clear definitions of which emissions can be offset versus those requiring direct reduction are essential to prevent over-reliance on offsets and maintain a balanced mitigation approach.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103068"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145093912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Benjamin T. Pederick , Martin Potter , Hailey Cooperrider , Sidney Icarus , Donna Luckman , Rebecca Dahl , Mark Elliot , Trish Cave , Jason Tampake , Brett A. Bryan
{"title":"Participatory storyworld building for unlocking climate adaptation","authors":"Benjamin T. Pederick , Martin Potter , Hailey Cooperrider , Sidney Icarus , Donna Luckman , Rebecca Dahl , Mark Elliot , Trish Cave , Jason Tampake , Brett A. Bryan","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103054","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103054","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Worldwide, local communities are experiencing increasing climate change impacts, for which they are underprepared, and which are predicted to further intensify into the future. Closing this knowledge action gap in local climate adaptation is a socio-political challenge, requiring social science solutions. Recognising the strategic value of local governance actors, we prototyped an innovative participatory storyworld building method with local government decision makers. This method narratively downscaled climate pathways to a collective place-based storyworld. Participants imagined and detailed an alternate version of their real community, presented along near future climate pathways, mapping features, validating climate risks, and scripting individual storylines. Storyworld building proved compelling and useful for a diverse cohort as an innovative and effective form of applied science storytelling that fosters collaboration across difference and discipline. We found that expressing climate change as a local storyworld makes climate science meaningful, increases feelings of agency, and establishes a multilateral flow of knowledge between climate science and local storylines. This method has since been implemented in several local councils, operationalised into online localisation workshops for local government staff and stakeholders, and is gathering momentum as a transferable method for local governments to engage and mobilise coordinated community climate action.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103054"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kate Burrows , Kathryn McConnell , Nora Louise Schwaller , Chantel F. Pheiffer
{"title":"De-energization as maladaptation: Uneven residential exposure to wildfire Public Safety Power Shutoffs and compound heat","authors":"Kate Burrows , Kathryn McConnell , Nora Louise Schwaller , Chantel F. Pheiffer","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103067","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103067","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In response to growing levels of wildfire destruction, electric utility companies are adopting powerline de-energization as an adaptation strategy intended to prevent wildfire ignitions. While reducing wildfire risk, planned de-energizations also expose residents to electricity loss, potentially causing harmful consequences. We investigated the extent to which planned de-energization can be considered a form of <em>maladaptation</em>, in which an adaptive response to a climate-related hazard results in unintended, concurrent harms. To do so, we examined the co-occurrence of Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPSs) with extreme heat (temperature ≥ 32 °C) in California between October 2021 and September 2024. Our analysis revealed compound heat-PSPS outages throughout this period, including extreme temperatures exceeding 40 °C, during power shutoffs. Compound heat-PSPS events were geographically concentrated in census block groups with higher proportions of older adults and mobile home residents, both populations which may be at increased risk of heat-related morbidity and mortality. While they affected a relatively small proportion of customers de-energized by PSPSs, compound heat-PSPS outages raise concerns over extreme heat exposure when access to electricity-based cooling strategies is curtailed. Evaluating the maladaptive effects of institutional responses to climate change hazards is critical for comprehensively weighing both the benefits and harms of emerging adaptation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103067"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145060874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hao Li , Tao Yang , Linman Li , Bin Lu , Tianzheng Zhang , Xiaolong Lu , Rui Peng , Zhaohua Wang
{"title":"Location-specific climate and environmental benefits of China’s coal mining phase-down towards carbon neutrality","authors":"Hao Li , Tao Yang , Linman Li , Bin Lu , Tianzheng Zhang , Xiaolong Lu , Rui Peng , Zhaohua Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103057","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103057","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The coal mining industry, characterized by its high-intensity emissions of both greenhouse gases (GHGs) and pollutants, urgently requires a substantial transformation to tackle these challenges. Existing studies have given insufficient attention to location-specific phase-down of coal mining operations and the associated climate and environmental co-benefits. Here, this study constructs a comprehensive database encompassing 380 large coal mines in China, and then compile inventories of energy consumption, methane emissions and pollutant emissions for each coal mine from 2023 to 2060. Afterwards, this study integrates the technical and economic attributes to assess their retirement rankings. Four phase-down strategies are formulated in accordance with the coal demand trends towards carbon neutrality while the potential climate and environmental co-benefits are thoroughly evaluated. This study indicates that the reduction in both coal demand and emission intensity are crucial factors in alleviating environmental pressures and offer valuable insights into the location-specific phase-down strategies for the coal mining industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103057"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145057270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Eranga K. Galappaththi , Jennifer D. Russell , Mitch Dolby , Thomas Newsome , Sithuni M. Jayasekara
{"title":"Status of global accumulation of marine debris","authors":"Eranga K. Galappaththi , Jennifer D. Russell , Mitch Dolby , Thomas Newsome , Sithuni M. Jayasekara","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103058","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103058","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The issue of marine debris pollution is a growing crisis, with detrimental effects on ecosystems, marine organisms, and human health. More than 800 coastal and marine species are affected, resulting in billions of dollars of economic losses each year. To better understand the dimensions of this challenge, it is important to establish a solid scientific knowledge base. This study aims to synthesize the global research and evidence of marine debris accumulation in coastal areas. Through a systematic literature review, we found that Europe and Asia are the primary regions where marine debris accumulation is studied, with the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans accounting for most of research. The majority of publications are by first authors from European and Asian institutions, with the US also contributing significantly. Most studies focus on the volume of marine debris, with general waste being the most studied type. Additionally, physical and environmental factors play a larger role than human-based factors in marine debris accumulation. Overall, there is a trend of increasing and relocating marine debris accumulation across all determining factors. We also identified important areas for future research to deepen our understanding of the factors influencing debris accumulation. In particular, there is a notable gap in the practical application of tools and methods for tracking and identifying marine debris, such as satellite remote sensing, specialized databases, and computational modeling approaches. The study findings offer vital insights for decision-making regarding marine debris accumulation, benefiting policymakers, researchers, and other stakeholders striving towards a more sustainable globe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103058"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145046997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Clare C. Sullivan , Joseph App , Lisa L. Rausch , Steven Sotelo , Daisy Tarrier , Miguel Ángel Vianchá Pinzón , Holly K. Gibbs
{"title":"Can zero deforestation agreements in the cattle sector protect Colombia’s forests and páramos?","authors":"Clare C. Sullivan , Joseph App , Lisa L. Rausch , Steven Sotelo , Daisy Tarrier , Miguel Ángel Vianchá Pinzón , Holly K. Gibbs","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103055","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103055","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Zero Deforestation Agreements (ZDAs) for the beef and dairy sectors in Colombia could curb land cover change in the country’s highly biodiverse tropical forests and páramos. Improved understanding of the structure of the cattle supply chain and the ZDAs’ potential area of influence can help target companies with high-risk supply chains, inform implementation, and set realistic expectations for the ZDAs contribution to conservation goals for forest and páramos. We provide the first map of infrastructure for the beef and dairy sectors and link this to a dataset of cattle transactions to delineate “supply zones” or potential buying areas for each slaughterhouse and dairy. We use these supply zones to assess three spatially explicit scenarios of the potential reach of the ZDAs with expanded participation. At present, ZDA signatories’ supply zones cover 10.4 Mha or 23% of Colombia’s forests, with a large area of influence associated with beef sector signatories. Participation of all major companies could nearly double the ZDAs reach to include 41% of forests, and full participation could reach 49% of forests. The dairy ZDA also targets high alpine páramos, and 57% of unprotected páramos are within signatories’ supply zones. Full participation could support the conservation of 96% of this unique ecosystem. We found that indirect animal movements make up 80% of the supply chain, so policy implementation will depend on monitoring and traceability systems that go beyond suppliers selling directly to slaughterhouses or dairies. More companies must participate and effectively implement the ZDAs to realize this conservation potential.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103055"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145026337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Łukasz Dylewski , Radosław Puchałka , Joanna T. Bialas , Katarína Fogašová , Zuzanna Jagiełło , Sandra Kaźmierczak , Henn Timm , Marcin Tobółka , Grzegorz Tończyk , Julia Zawadzka , Marcin K. Dyderski
{"title":"Citizen science data can significantly improve predictions of potential ranges of non-charismatic species: a study on two freshwater sponges","authors":"Łukasz Dylewski , Radosław Puchałka , Joanna T. Bialas , Katarína Fogašová , Zuzanna Jagiełło , Sandra Kaźmierczak , Henn Timm , Marcin Tobółka , Grzegorz Tończyk , Julia Zawadzka , Marcin K. Dyderski","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103056","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103056","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Freshwater sponge species play crucial roles in aquatic ecosystems, yet their distribution patterns and responses to environmental changes remain insufficiently understood. Relying solely on platforms like GBIF for predicting species distribution may be inadequate and occasionally misleading due to biases and inaccuracies in the data. We investigated the distribution records and potential future distributions of two freshwater sponge species, <em>Spongilla lacustris</em> and <em>Ephydatia fluviatilis</em>, across Europe. Using various data sources, including the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), literature records, and internet naturalist data (iEcology), we compiled a comprehensive dataset comprising 1,330 records for <em>S. lacustris</em> and 9,854 records for <em>E. fluviatilis</em>. While GBIF records predominated in Western Europe, additional sources filled gaps in distribution records, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe. Species distribution models (SDMs) performed well, with <em>S. lacustris</em> exhibiting a broad climatic optimum range in Western and Northern Europe, while <em>E. fluviatilis</em> displayed a narrower range, primarily in northern regions. Future projections indicated a northward shift of freshwater sponge species in response to climate change, with potential contractions in Baltic Sea countries. These findings underscore that using diverse data sources such as scientific literature, field surveys, local ecological knowledge, and citizen science initiatives offers a more holistic view of species distribution patterns. Social media platforms also play a significant role in supplementing biodiversity data and engaging communities in conservation efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103056"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145005035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sandra J. Geiger , Hirotaka Imada , Carya Maharja , Nattavudh Powdthavee , Valeria Vitale , Lei Zhang , Claudio D. Rosa , Zenith N.C. Delabrida , Kristian S. Nielsen , Franz Essl , Mathew P. White
{"title":"Understanding the role of pluralistic ignorance in biodiversity conservation: A research agenda","authors":"Sandra J. Geiger , Hirotaka Imada , Carya Maharja , Nattavudh Powdthavee , Valeria Vitale , Lei Zhang , Claudio D. Rosa , Zenith N.C. Delabrida , Kristian S. Nielsen , Franz Essl , Mathew P. White","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103043","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103043","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Most people believe that biodiversity loss is human-caused, yet they may not realize how many others share this belief. Such collective misperceptions—known as pluralistic ignorance—may hinder individual and system changes required to address biodiversity loss. At the same time, reducing pluralistic ignorance may promote positive change. In this Perspective, we provide a brief overview of existing work on pluralistic ignorance about environmental topics and propose an agenda for impactful pluralistic ignorance research in the biodiversity domain. We highlight several research gaps and offer recommendations, including (a) investigating different forms of pluralistic ignorance, (b) improving our understanding of consequences and determinants, and (c) broadening the intervention toolkit to counter pluralistic ignorance for biodiversity conservation. To increase the Perspective’s practical applicability, we describe historical and contemporary case studies on pluralistic ignorance and biodiversity conservation from around the globe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103043"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145005036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Juanita von Rothkirch , Bjarnhéðinn Guðlaugsson , David Christian Finger , Michael Stauffacher
{"title":"How is international CCS discussed locally? The case of Iceland","authors":"Juanita von Rothkirch , Bjarnhéðinn Guðlaugsson , David Christian Finger , Michael Stauffacher","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103048","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103048","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Communities and scholars have long highlighted the need to attend to public concerns in carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. Many large-scale CCS deployments are expected to be cross-border projects, posing specific questions in local communities. These questions may relate to the perceived lack of local benefits, why local emissions are not prioritized, and the feeling that each country should deal with its own emissions. We used qualitative research methods, including a thematic analysis of interviews and newspaper articles, to study local perceptions of the Coda Terminal project in Iceland, which is set to become one of the first international CCS hubs. Our results show that the project was depicted as an innovative solution to a global problem, with little impact at its implementation site. At the same time, the innovative nature of the project raised concerns about its scale, the associated risks, and the perception that it imports “waste” from other countries. Concerns have been heightened by the perceived marginalization of opposing voices, including those opposed to importing CO<sub>2</sub>. We observed that opportunities to have a productive conversation on the import were obstructed by actors focusing on the correct definition of CO<sub>2</sub> instead of listening to and understanding people’s framings. We provide insights on how thinking about the why, who, and when of technology-tailored public participation can improve the dialogue around cross-border CCS.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103048"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144925252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}