Global Environmental Change最新文献

{"title":"Status of global accumulation of marine debris","authors":"Eranga K. Galappaththi ,&nbsp;Jennifer D. Russell ,&nbsp;Mitch Dolby ,&nbsp;Thomas Newsome ,&nbsp;Sithuni M. Jayasekara","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103058","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103058","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The issue of marine debris pollution is a growing crisis, with detrimental effects on ecosystems, marine organisms, and human health. More than 800 coastal and marine species are affected, resulting in billions of dollars of economic losses each year. To better understand the dimensions of this challenge, it is important to establish a solid scientific knowledge base. This study aims to synthesize the global research and evidence of marine debris accumulation in coastal areas. Through a systematic literature review, we found that Europe and Asia are the primary regions where marine debris accumulation is studied, with the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans accounting for most of research. The majority of publications are by first authors from European and Asian institutions, with the US also contributing significantly. Most studies focus on the volume of marine debris, with general waste being the most studied type. Additionally, physical and environmental factors play a larger role than human-based factors in marine debris accumulation. Overall, there is a trend of increasing and relocating marine debris accumulation across all determining factors. We also identified important areas for future research to deepen our understanding of the factors influencing debris accumulation. In particular, there is a notable gap in the practical application of tools and methods for tracking and identifying marine debris, such as satellite remote sensing, specialized databases, and computational modeling approaches. The study findings offer vital insights for decision-making regarding marine debris accumulation, benefiting policymakers, researchers, and other stakeholders striving towards a more sustainable globe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103058"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145046997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Citizen science data can significantly improve predictions of potential ranges of non-charismatic species: a study on two freshwater sponges","authors":"Łukasz Dylewski ,&nbsp;Radosław Puchałka ,&nbsp;Joanna T. Bialas ,&nbsp;Katarína Fogašová ,&nbsp;Zuzanna Jagiełło ,&nbsp;Sandra Kaźmierczak ,&nbsp;Henn Timm ,&nbsp;Marcin Tobółka ,&nbsp;Grzegorz Tończyk ,&nbsp;Julia Zawadzka ,&nbsp;Marcin K. Dyderski","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103056","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103056","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Freshwater sponge species play crucial roles in aquatic ecosystems, yet their distribution patterns and responses to environmental changes remain insufficiently understood. Relying solely on platforms like GBIF for predicting species distribution may be inadequate and occasionally misleading due to biases and inaccuracies in the data. We investigated the distribution records and potential future distributions of two freshwater sponge species, <em>Spongilla lacustris</em> and <em>Ephydatia fluviatilis</em>, across Europe. Using various data sources, including the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), literature records, and internet naturalist data (iEcology), we compiled a comprehensive dataset comprising 1,330 records for <em>S. lacustris</em> and 9,854 records for <em>E. fluviatilis</em>. While GBIF records predominated in Western Europe, additional sources filled gaps in distribution records, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe. Species distribution models (SDMs) performed well, with <em>S. lacustris</em> exhibiting a broad climatic optimum range in Western and Northern Europe, while <em>E. fluviatilis</em> displayed a narrower range, primarily in northern regions. Future projections indicated a northward shift of freshwater sponge species in response to climate change, with potential contractions in Baltic Sea countries. These findings underscore that using diverse data sources such as scientific literature, field surveys, local ecological knowledge, and citizen science initiatives offers a more holistic view of species distribution patterns. Social media platforms also play a significant role in supplementing biodiversity data and engaging communities in conservation efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103056"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145005035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding the role of pluralistic ignorance in biodiversity conservation: A research agenda","authors":"Sandra J. Geiger ,&nbsp;Hirotaka Imada ,&nbsp;Carya Maharja ,&nbsp;Nattavudh Powdthavee ,&nbsp;Valeria Vitale ,&nbsp;Lei Zhang ,&nbsp;Claudio D. Rosa ,&nbsp;Zenith N.C. Delabrida ,&nbsp;Kristian S. Nielsen ,&nbsp;Franz Essl ,&nbsp;Mathew P. White","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103043","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103043","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Most people believe that biodiversity loss is human-caused, yet they may not realize how many others share this belief. Such collective misperceptions—known as pluralistic ignorance—may hinder individual and system changes required to address biodiversity loss. At the same time, reducing pluralistic ignorance may promote positive change. In this Perspective, we provide a brief overview of existing work on pluralistic ignorance about environmental topics and propose an agenda for impactful pluralistic ignorance research in the biodiversity domain. We highlight several research gaps and offer recommendations, including (a) investigating different forms of pluralistic ignorance, (b) improving our understanding of consequences and determinants, and (c) broadening the intervention toolkit to counter pluralistic ignorance for biodiversity conservation. To increase the Perspective’s practical applicability, we describe historical and contemporary case studies on pluralistic ignorance and biodiversity conservation from around the globe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103043"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145005036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How is international CCS discussed locally? The case of Iceland","authors":"Juanita von Rothkirch ,&nbsp;Bjarnhéðinn Guðlaugsson ,&nbsp;David Christian Finger ,&nbsp;Michael Stauffacher","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103048","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103048","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Communities and scholars have long highlighted the need to attend to public concerns in carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. Many large-scale CCS deployments are expected to be cross-border projects, posing specific questions in local communities. These questions may relate to the perceived lack of local benefits, why local emissions are not prioritized, and the feeling that each country should deal with its own emissions. We used qualitative research methods, including a thematic analysis of interviews and newspaper articles, to study local perceptions of the Coda Terminal project in Iceland, which is set to become one of the first international CCS hubs. Our results show that the project was depicted as an innovative solution to a global problem, with little impact at its implementation site. At the same time, the innovative nature of the project raised concerns about its scale, the associated risks, and the perception that it imports “waste” from other countries. Concerns have been heightened by the perceived marginalization of opposing voices, including those opposed to importing CO₂. We observed that opportunities to have a productive conversation on the import were obstructed by actors focusing on the correct definition of CO₂ instead of listening to and understanding people’s framings. We provide insights on how thinking about the why, who, and when of technology-tailored public participation can improve the dialogue around cross-border CCS.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103048"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144925252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Justice washing extractivism: Pacific Island activist perspectives on just transitions and deep-sea mining","authors":"Jason Titifanue","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103053","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103053","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The notion of the just transition highlights that shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energies should leave no one marginalised, and benefits should be distributed in an equitable and just manner. In this context, a new frontier of resource extractivism is emerging – Deep-Sea Mining (DSM) – which proponents seek to position as a <em>just</em> means of acquiring critical metals and minerals used in renewable energy technologies. Drawing on postcolonial theories of island laboratories, this paper scrutinises DSM and the scramble for minerals by corporations, states, and state groupings. First, through a review of literature, the paper critically examines arguments for DSM that position it as a pathway towards just transition, including through purported benefits to nations in the Pacific Islands Region. Next, drawing on primary data collected during 2023–24 including interviews with Pacific Island climate activists (n = 45), it highlights activist understandings of DSM as perpetuating historic and ongoing colonialism, extractivism, and experimentation in the Pacific Islands Region. Far from a standalone issue, Pacific activists draw on principles of decolonisation and self-determination to engage with the intersecting crises of climate change, extractivism, and to resist DSM. Using DSM as a case study, this paper contends that the plight faced by Pacific Peoples due to the climate crisis, has been weaponised to justice wash extractivism as a climate solution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103053"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144931615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Weathering change: Longitudinal patterns of residential mobility following extreme weather events in Australia","authors":"Sasha Bacquet-Carlier ,&nbsp;Aude Bernard ,&nbsp;Francisco Perales","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103050","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103050","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There is growing evidence of disaster-induced mobility. However, most research focuses on immediate displacement, limiting our ability to understand the long-term consequences of extreme weather events on residential mobility. To address this gap, this study establishes the relationships between home damage caused by bushfires, floods, and cyclones and ensuing residential mobility in the following five years. Using nationally representative individual-level data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey from 2009 to 2023, we use finite distributed lag logistic models to determine the level, timing, and direction of weather-induced mobility, distinguishing between onward and return movement and distance moved. While most moves occur in the immediate aftermath of an extreme weather event, results indicate that weather-induced home damage increases the odds of moving for up to three years. Four distinct mobility patterns emerge: (1) <em>immediate relocation</em>, which brings some moves forward, (2) <em>delayed displacement</em> up to three years later, particularly over short distances, (3) <em>short-term displacement</em> followed by return, and (4) <em>repeat onward migration</em>. Younger adults and renters are more likely to be involved in all mobility types. Tertiary-educated individuals are less likely to return, but more likely to move repeatedly, while separated individuals are more likely to be delayed movers. The diversity of mobility responses underscores the conceptual and methodological complexities of estimating weather-induced population movement and the need for nuance and caution, while showing the benefits of distributed lag models to capture time dynamics. Our findings also highlight the need for targeted support mechanisms that account for different mobility trajectories and varying constraints faced by sub-population groups in the aftermath of extreme weather events.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103050"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144925253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Medical expenditures under climate change and SSP-informed physiological and socioeconomic scenarios in China","authors":"Dianyu Zhu ,&nbsp;Miaomiao Liu ,&nbsp;Yuli Shan ,&nbsp;Ruoqi Li ,&nbsp;Haofan Zhang ,&nbsp;Yuan Li ,&nbsp;Jun Bi ,&nbsp;Klaus Hubacek","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103052","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103052","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is reshaping global health burdens, but its financial impacts through increased household medical expenditures remain underexplored. This study integrated random forest techniques and 264,302 daily bank transaction data from 271 Chinese cities (2017–2019) to simulate household medical expenditure responses to climate change. To observe the heterogeneity among different cities, cities are categorized into 14 city groups based on their historical temperature and economic conditions to build simulation models. We further projected the future household medical expenditures in different cities under four Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), considering the pure effects of climate change and sensitivity changes under SSP-informed socioeconomic and physiological scenarios. We find that households in higher-income cities and cities with historically low temperatures have enhanced resilience to heat and cold, respectively. Climate change is projected to slightly decrease household medical expenses in China by 5.2% (SSP126) to 5.6% (SSP585) in 2060, attributed to fewer cold-related medical expenditures. Under the physiological scenarios, enhanced body system functions are projected to reduce medical expenditures by 19.5% (SSP245) to 27.6% (SSP585) by 2060. Rising incomes under socioeconomic scenarios may stimulate healthcare demand and drive expenditures up by 4.9% (SSP370) to 22.5% (SSP585). The findings highlight the importance of incorporating the moderating role of adaptation in devising tailored strategies to alleviate the household health-related economic strains induced by climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103052"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144891960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A taste of tomorrow: Predicting food demand elasticities under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways","authors":"Clara G. Bouyssou,&nbsp;Francesco Clora,&nbsp;Jørgen Dejgård Jensen,&nbsp;Wusheng Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103049","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103049","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Food policy assessments and food demand projections rely on demand elasticities. The elasticities used, however, often lack granularity and depend on <em>ad hoc</em> adjustments to make them evolve over time. In this study we explore an alternative approach using a <em>meta</em>-analysis database and the XGBoost machine learning algorithm to predict food demand elasticities. Next, we use the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) database to project the elasticities to 2030, 2040, and 2050. The elasticities are then calibrated to comply with theoretical conditions and used to parameterize the demand system in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Finally, using the CGE model, we illustrate the implications of the new parameters by simulating four sets of simple scenarios. As output files we provide (1) income, own-price, and cross-price (both compensated and uncompensated) elasticities for 12 food groups, 138 countries, and 5 SSPs, (2) their calibrated counterparts, and (3) the equivalent expansion and substitution parameters for a CDE demand system. These parameters can be applied in a wide range of scenario building and policy assessments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103049"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144852164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Living with wildfire cultivating a stewardship framework","authors":"Maya Daurio","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103047","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103047","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Place-based stewardship in mountain watersheds can play an important role in responding to and helping to mitigate different kinds of landscape-based hazards, including wildfire and post-fire flooding. In a world with more extreme wildfire, what does it mean to live with fire, where the impacts affect people and places across jurisdictions for many years after the fire itself? Drawing on over two years of ethnographic fieldwork including participant observation and interviews, I explore this question in the particular geographic and land use context of the Poudre Canyon in northern Colorado. Local stewardship practices in mountain communities can benefit populations beyond the fire perimeter. These may be rooted in ongoing relationships to the land, local, volunteer-based hazard mitigation and emergency response, and post-fire collaborative efforts. Using narrative analysis, I examine how landscapes at risk of fire are defined, how wildfire risk is communicated to those living in these landscapes in Colorado, and how discourses of risk and responsibility facilitate or constrain adaptation to living with extreme fire. I encourage an approach to risk communication that conceptualizes those who live in fire adapted landscapes as potential stewards. I also suggest that wildfire risk reduction efforts should be more geographically and socially expansive, to acknowledge that contending with wildfire and its associated hazards of smoke and flooding is a society-wide challenge, not just for those living in fire adapted landscapes. Living with fire is a process, and community members, practitioners, and scientists alike are reorienting toward a world with more extreme wildfire.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103047"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144841633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Aquaculture isn’t always the answer: rethinking blue transitions through justice and community experience","authors":"Liliana Sierra Castillo ,&nbsp;Caroline E. Ferguson Irlanda ,&nbsp;Erendira Aceves-Bueno ,&nbsp;Halley Froelich ,&nbsp;Cristina Mancilla ,&nbsp;Antonella Rivera ,&nbsp;Steven D. Gaines","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103046","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103046","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Aquaculture interventions and policies are now fundamental in sustainability agendas, particularly in supporting small-scale fisheries and coastal communities. These policies often rely on the “blue transitions” theory of change, which posits that an expansion of aquaculture will aid in recovering declining fish stocks and enhancing livelihoods. However, the blue transitions theory is relatively new, leaving many aspects uncertain, especially regarding how transition stages unfold and impact communities as they are expected to transform livelihoods. Frequently, these policies adopt a top-down approach driven by political and corporate interests at global or national levels, emphasizing environmental and economic benefits while neglecting local social, cultural, and historical contexts. This study aims to identify gaps in current blue transition policies at the local level through two empirical case studies in Baja California Sur, Mexico. Additionally, it evaluates the suitability of existing frameworks for incorporating justice in food system transitions for seafood system transitions and provides insights for developing more equitable blue food policies. Using an exploratory mixed methods approach from 2021 to 2023, including ethnography, interviews, surveys, and focus groups, this research delves into the complexities of aquaculture policies for communities going through blue transitions. Findings indicate that these policies often prioritize economic development over social, cultural, and historical considerations, leading to injustices within communities. The case studies reveal impacts and challenges such as intra-community conflict, illegal fishing, and threats to food security and resilience, as well as benefits like momentary economic gains. Applying a framework for just food system transitions, we advocate for flexible, community-centric policies that recognize local heterogeneity and empower communities to shape their transitions, including deciding whether a transition is appropriate. This study underscores the limitations of viewing aquaculture as a panacea for small-scale fisheries’ challenges, emphasizing the need for holistic, multiscale management approaches. Contextualizing blue transitions within local realities and prioritizing food justice can promote just and equitable outcomes that address the nuanced needs of diverse coastal communities amidst global pressures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103046"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144831584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}