Global Environmental Change最新文献

{"title":"The energy system transition pathway towards carbon reduction using a model-coupling approach","authors":"Jiali Zheng ,&nbsp;Xiaoqing Hou ,&nbsp;Jiaming Yang ,&nbsp;Lianyang Jiao ,&nbsp;D’Maris Coffman ,&nbsp;Shouyang Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102945","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102945","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The energy system transition is widely regarded as an important strategy to achieve carbon reduction and is aligned with China's commitment to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030. Unfortunately, most modelling approaches in the existing literature do not pay sufficient attention to inter-sectoral dynamics. By using a model-coupling approach, this paper aims to study inter-sectoral energy consumption flows from 2000 to 2021 and to explore energy system transition pathways at the national and city levels. The results show that historically heavy industries have consistently maintained a high share of energy consumption and emissions accounting for 49.9 % and 60.7 % respectively by 2021, mainly caused by direct energy-resource inputs rather than post-processing inputs. In the scenario analyses, compared to the baseline scenario, the national EES scenario can reduce energy consumption by 6.7 % and emissions by 24.6 % in 2030, while the EES_CCS scenario can further reduce emissions by 48.4 %. Furthermore, the energy consumption and CO₂ emissions across cities are influenced by the industrial structure, the degree of electrification, and the amount of new energy installed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102945"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142527977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enormous inter-country inequality of embodied carbon emissions and its driving forces in South America","authors":"Zhenyu Wang ,&nbsp;Huaxi Peng ,&nbsp;Jing Meng ,&nbsp;Heran Zheng ,&nbsp;Jie Li ,&nbsp;Jingwen Huo ,&nbsp;Yuxin Chen ,&nbsp;Quan Wen ,&nbsp;Xiaotian Ma ,&nbsp;Dabo Guan","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102944","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102944","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>South America is a crucial developing region under significant pressure to reduce emissions and achieve carbon neutrality. This study fills a vital gap by comprehensively analysing the continent’s carbon emissions from both production and consumption perspectives. Utilizing the most up-to-date global Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) models, we examine the emissions embodied in the internal and external trade of nine major South American countries, tracing the emission flows from their origins to final consumers and analyzing the socio-economic drivers behind these patterns. Our analysis reveals that regions bearing heavier burdens of energy-intensive production often face exacerbated economic disparities. Trade-related emissions are embodied in heavy industry and transportation, and the share of emissions attributable to developing countries is continuously climbing. Brazil is the sole net-exporter of emissions, while Colombia has become a significant net importer. Energy intensity offsets the increase in carbon emissions caused by per capita consumption, especially in Brazil. Meanwhile, Colombia experiences an increase in emissions due to its energy structure, whereas a general trend towards decreasing emissions is noted elsewhere. The impact of the industrial chain is mainly domestic and extends forward along the supply chain. Interestingly, the consumption structure reduces emissions in Argentina and Bolivia, but increases them in other countries. Key emission mitigation initiatives include Brazil enhancing its leadership in bioenergy, Chile intensifying the development of green industrial chains for high-emission sectors, and Uruguay advancing its wind energy projects to increase clean energy exports, etc. These measures could facilitate targeted and effective decarbonization while promoting equitable and sustainable economic development across South America.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102944"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142442084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global wildfire activity re-visited","authors":"Opha Pauline Dube","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102894","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102894","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Investments in wildfire management are increasing globally; however, frequent and intense fires continue to threaten humans and natural systems. Moreover, comprehensive assessments of fire damage and cost are lacking. Current fire risk is considered moderate compared to that under global warming of 1.5 °C. Several works link rising fire risk to the fire exclusion paradigm, land use, and climate change. The multifaceted nature of the global wildfire activity requires holistic, integrative perspectives to stimulate novel solutions. This review elucidated the transformative changes in the human-fire relationship that led to the globalization of the fire exclusion policies and emergence of a complex global fire activity. The use of fire in the impetus toward industrialization and its management thereafter was at the expense of millions dispossessed of their land, curtailing development of their knowledge domains, introducing inequality, and poverty, which enhanced the reliance on fire as a tool to meet the livelihood needs within a fire exclusion policy environment. Industrialization marked the beginning of climate change-fire positive feedback loops that enhanced vulnerability worldwide. Current evidence shows that not all frequently burnt areas are major sources of emissions. The potential to use fire exclusion for emission reduction could downplay further the role of fire in carbon storage, ecological processes and land use fire needs, increasing reliance on “covert fire use practices,” and exacerbating incidents of large fires that surpass fire suppression capabilities given the contribution of climate change on fire risk. The globally complex fire activity points to the need for adaptive, participatory, multi-level, polycentric governance approaches.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102894"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142432734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Agricultural resilience: Impact of extreme weather events on the adoption of rural insurance in Brazil","authors":"Elizângela Aparecida dos Santos ,&nbsp;Elena Beatriz Piedra-Bonilla ,&nbsp;Gabriela Madureira Barroso ,&nbsp;Jordão Vieira Silva ,&nbsp;Seyede Parvin Hejazirad ,&nbsp;José Barbosa dos Santos","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102938","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102938","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Brazil’s agricultural, livestock, and forestry production is essential, feeding more than 10% of the global population. However, climate change and extremes affect quality and production, challenging the Sustainable Development Goals of eradicating hunger and poverty. Extreme weather events generate economic and social costs, driving the use of adaptation strategies, with rural insurance being one of the main instruments to manage these risks. This study analyzes the impact of extreme weather events on rural insurance contracting in Brazil, using daily precipitation and temperature data to calculate extreme weather indices and perform panel regressions. The analysis of Minimum Comparable Areas (MCAs) between 2006 and 2016 showed that events such as “Frost” and “Hot Days” significantly increased insurance contracting, especially in the South and Central-West regions. The results highlight the importance of extreme variables and the need to consider regional differences and insurance alternatives. Despite the importance of insurance, increasing financial unviability suggests the need for additional strategies, such as crop diversification, community solidarity, and conservation of agricultural practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102938"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142422848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does Climate Change Exacerbate Gender Inequality in Cognitive Performance?","authors":"Huan Chen ,&nbsp;Yanni Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102941","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102941","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While a considerable amount of research has been conducted on the cognitive effects of climate change, relatively less attention has been given to gender disparities in these effects. This paper utilizes nationally representative data from China to explore how climate change influences cognitive performance across genders. Our findings suggest that women demonstrate a notably stronger capacity to adapt to elevated temperatures. Mechanism analysis reveals that women’s superior adaptation is primarily evident in memory and application skills rather than in comprehension. Moreover, sleep quality and mental health are identified as indirect contributors to these gender differences. Further demographic analysis shows that disparities in the impact of temperature on cognitive performance are more pronounced in urban settings, poorer households, among the elderly, and in colder counties, compared to rural areas, affluent households, younger adults, and warmer counties.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102941"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142422846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Measuring the contribution of nature-based solutions beyond climate adaptation in cities","authors":"Sean Goodwin ,&nbsp;Marta Olazabal ,&nbsp;Antonio J. Castro ,&nbsp;Unai Pascual","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102939","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102939","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Measuring the contribution of urban nature-based solutions (NbS) to climate change adaptation is an essential, though complex, step towards understanding who benefits from them, as well as when, where, how and why. However, urban NbS are also framed as being able to meet multiple objectives relating to biodiversity conservation as well as associated social challenges. The complexity of addressing multiple challenges, combined with conflicting visions of what climate adaptation means at the local level, further burdens the identification of clear and relevant goals, processes and information to track progress (i.e. contributions) towards urban adaptation. To explore and question how current on-the-ground practices address this complexity, we analysed a global dataset of indicators (n = 750 indicators) from 74 NbS projects in 61 cities across 40 countries based on an assessment of the literature regarding information and processes used for evaluating urban NbS for adaptation. This was combined with interviews with local actors who evaluate these NbS projects (n = 15). Our results indicate that current urban NbS projects do not appear to balance climate adaptation with other goals, nor do they uniformly conform to prevailing technical standards of quality of traditional monitoring, evaluation and learning processes. Currently NbS projects tend to primarily prioritise shorter-term high-quality ecological indicators, mostly related to biodiversity, while generally other longer-term social and technical indicators lack quality despite capturing a diversity of potential medium- to long-term contributions of NbS. Various political and social factors that influence the way urban NbS to adaptation are evaluated typically go beyond evaluation purposes and range from using indicators to promote NbS as cost-effective solutions or particular political agendas. The diversity of what makes good information and processes to measure contributions to urban adaptation bolsters calls for establishing processes for flexible, commonly agreed-upon guiding principles. We suggest locally grounded recommendations to help identify fit-for-purpose information and processes to evaluate the potential of urban NbS to address interconnected climate, biodiversity, and societal challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102939"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142422847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Linking production, processing, and consumption of plant-based protein alternatives in Europe","authors":"Catharina J.E. Schulp ,&nbsp;Ciska Ulug ,&nbsp;Anne Elise Stratton ,&nbsp;Tim G. Williams ,&nbsp;Peter H. Verburg","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102940","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102940","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To confront current sustainability challenges, the European Commission aims to transition towards plant-based diets as well as shorter, regionalized value chains. Legume-based meat and dairy alternatives (LBAs) are seen as an important tool in the food system transition, replacing protein from animals with high-protein plant-based sources. However, regionalized LBA value chains require the co-occurrence of legume producers, LBA manufacturers, and consumers, and we lack understanding of the current status and future potential for such value chains in Europe. In this article, we integrate publicly-available datasets with a web-derived inventory of LBA manufacturer locations to map the regional strength of LBA value chains across Europe. Using manufacturers’ visions and employee interviews, we complement the spatial analysis with an exploratory assessment of how actors perceive their role in a plant-based food system transition.</div><div>Regions in north-western Europe demonstrate (moderately) strong value chains for regionalized LBAs, yet few regions contain all three value chain nodes. The absence of LBA manufacturers is the most widespread barrier for more regional value chains (particularly in Eastern Europe), suggesting a need for infrastructure and policies that incentivize innovation in the value chain and new connections between legume producers, processors, LBA manufacturers, and consumers. LBA manufacturers in our sample express diverse values and therefore could play complementary roles in sustainability transitions. However, global manufacturers are markedly less likely to have visions related to systemic change. Together, our results showcase the potential to expand regionalized LBA value chains to improve sustainability throughout the EU, but regionalisation may not be possible everywhere, highlighting the need for a cross-scale and context-specific approach to plant-based protein transitions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102940"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142422845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unequally distributed education impacts of ecosystem degradation: Evidence from an invasive species","authors":"Alberto Garcia ,&nbsp;Michelle Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102942","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102942","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ecosystem degradation can have substantial social and economic costs, which may vary across groups in society. In this paper, we leverage variation from the introduction of the emerald ash borer beetle to explore how invasive species-induced declines in environmental quality impact education outcomes in a metropolitan setting. Exploiting the idiosyncratic and staggered spread of the ash borer throughout the Chicago Metropolitan Region from 2006 to 2014, we show that infestation led to declines in tree cover and subsequently, education outcomes. Our findings indicate that ash borer infestation reduced canopy cover in affected areas, stemming from both increased tree cover loss and declines in tree cover gain. Further, the ash borer reduced standardized test performance at exposed schools. Infestation exposure led to an average of 1 percentage point (1.22%) fewer students that met or exceeded the state’s testing benchmark at the typical school. While exposure to ash borer infestation was lower around low-income schools, education impacts were concentrated almost entirely among low-income students. This work adds to our understanding of the environmental drivers of education outcomes and the unequally distributed impacts of human-induced environmental change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102942"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142422767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Indigenous women are the “guardians of Pachamama”: Territorial sovereignty is indispensable for just climate change adaptations in Peru","authors":"Holly Moulton","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102934","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102934","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Transformative climate change adaptation planning that addresses marginalized populations is increasingly critical for the globe’s most vulnerable countries. In 2021, Peru became the first country in Latin America to incorporate both gender and an Indigenous peoples’ platform (PPICC) into its national climate change adaptation plan. Peru has simultaneously increased its mining production of critical minerals like copper to address the global push to mitigate climate change through the green energy transition. The dissonance between equity-focused adaptation planning and extraction that occurs largely in Indigenous territories is understudied in the adaptation literature. This is especially pertinent for Indigenous women, whose embodied connection to territory is doubly disrupted by climate change and extractive activities. This paper uses the case study of national adaptation planning in Peru to analyze the tension between adaptation that addresses Indigeneity and gender and the increased “extraction imperative” to mitigate climate change through green technology. Based on a thematic analysis of Indigenous women’s organizations’ speeches, interviews, and policy recommendations—as well as planning documents from the Peruvian state and multilaterals—I show that Indigenous women leaders in Peru are drawing on embodied claims to territory and resistance to extraction to re-make adaptation planning into a space that centers Indigenous sovereignty. Ultimately, the Peruvian state’s vision of adaptation fails to account for <em>ongoing</em> sources of violence against Indigenous women, such as mining, that undermine adaptive capacity. I conclude that efforts to mainstream gender and Indigeneity into adaptation planning must foreground sovereignty to avoid maladaptive outcomes from extraction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102934"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142422766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of rural circular migration in shaping weather risk management for smallholder farmers in India, Nepal, and Bangladesh","authors":"Divya Solomon ,&nbsp;Asif Ishtiaque ,&nbsp;Arun Agarwal ,&nbsp;Joshua M. Gray ,&nbsp;Maria Carmen Lemos ,&nbsp;Ignatius Moben ,&nbsp;Balwinder Singh ,&nbsp;Meha Jain","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102937","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102937","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Circular migration, defined as migration where migrants return to their original home area, has become an increasingly important component of rural livelihoods and can significantly impact the risk management strategies of smallholder agricultural households in the face of climate change. To unpack the associations between climate change, migration decisions, and agricultural outcomes for smallholder agricultural households, we use an embedded mixed methods approach that uses quantitative data from a structured household survey from over 2,000 rural households in Nepal, India, and Bangladesh, along with qualitative data from interviews and focus group discussions. We use these data to identify the influence of socio-economic, climate, and weather factors on long (≥12 months) and short-term (&lt;12 months) migration decisions and the impacts of migration on risk management strategies in agriculture. Our research shows that the drivers and effects of migration differ based on migration characteristics, including the length of time a family member migrates and whether the destination is domestic or international. We find that households with limited resources, such as constrained irrigation access, use short-term migration to cope with weather variability, whereas long-term migration is generally undertaken by wealthier households motivated to improve long-term economic outcomes. Considering the impacts of migration on risk management, we find that short-term migration of household members results in increased investment in agriculture, such as increasing inputs and adopting new varieties. In contrast, long-term and international migration is associated with disinvestments in agriculture, such as reduced cropped area and inputs. Our results highlight the importance of migration in shaping agricultural management practices amidst the challenges of climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102937"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142422850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}