Global Environmental Change最新文献

{"title":"Perceived plasticity of climate-relevant behaviors and policy support among high- and lower-income individuals","authors":"Kristian S. Nielsen ,&nbsp;Fabian Dablander ,&nbsp;Ramit Debnath ,&nbsp;Charles A. Emogor ,&nbsp;Sakshi Ghai ,&nbsp;Wencke Gwozdz ,&nbsp;Ulf J.J. Hahnel ,&nbsp;Wilhelm Hofmann ,&nbsp;Jan M. Bauer","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103107","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103107","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Widespread behavior change is essential for mitigating climate change. This study explores how country and income differences are associated with the perceived likelihood of changing climate-relevant behaviors (referred to as perceived behavioral plasticity) and support for climate policies. Using an online survey (<em>n</em> = 4,003) from Denmark, India, Nigeria, and the United States – with 50 % of participants from the top 10 % income bracket – we reveal marked heterogeneity in the perceived plasticity of climate-friendly investment behaviors (e.g., purchasing an electric vehicle) and curtailment behaviors (e.g., reducing red meat consumption). Perceived behavioral plasticity was generally higher in India and Nigeria, though these differences should be interpreted cautiously, as response tendencies might have influenced perceptions and reporting of plasticity. While high-income participants reported greater perceived plasticity of certain investment behaviors and eating less red meat, the relationship between income and perceived plasticity differed substantially across behaviors and countries. We also found that higher perceived behavioral plasticity was related to greater support for domain-matched climate policies, and this relationship was stronger among high-income participants. Taken together, the results reveal substantial income- and country-level differences in perceived behavioral plasticity and show that individuals who perceive greater potential for change also express stronger support for corresponding climate policies. These findings underscore the interdependence between individual behavior and policy support and highlight both socioeconomic and psychological levers for designing more targeted and publicly supported climate initiatives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103107"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145837471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Who do we trust on climate change, and why?","authors":"Sarah MacInnes ,&nbsp;Matthew J. Hornsey ,&nbsp;Christian Bretter ,&nbsp;Samuel Pearson ,&nbsp;Kelly S. Fielding ,&nbsp;David Bersoff","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103096","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103096","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Trust in climate communicators is a critical determinant of whether the public accepts and acts upon climate change information. Yet most research to date has focused on who is trusted, with less attention to why certain messengers are deemed trustworthy. Using survey data from 6479 participants across 13 countries, this study examines (1) which sources of climate information are trusted, (2) what features make a communicator trustworthy, and (3) how these judgments differ between climate change believers and skeptics. Scientists were the most trusted sources among climate believers, but overall, the most trusted sources are informal and identity-based: “friends and family” and “people like me.” Across the sample, trust was predicted not only by demographic variables but also by specific communicator features: most notably clarity, shared values, sincerity, and being respectful of opposing views. Believers and skeptics prioritized different features, underscoring that trust is not a universal response but shaped by ideological identity. These findings reveal the layered and audience-contingent nature of trust in climate communication. By identifying the features that drive trust across different audiences, this study offers practical guidance for communicators interested in tailoring messages and messengers to more effectively engage the public on climate action.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103096"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145785164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic incentives and lifestyle drivers: how they shape consumers' engagement in repairing energy-using consumer goods and their environmental impacts in Japan","authors":"Darius Corbier ,&nbsp;Hazel Pettifor ,&nbsp;Maureen Agnew ,&nbsp;Nicolas Schlegel","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103102","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103102","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Japan’s Reduce-Reuse-Recycle policies reduced municipal waste, but since 2010, progress has slowed, and primary resource use remains high. ‘Repair’ policies can address this by extending product lifetimes, reducing new acquisitions and disposal, and limiting waste creation. We explore the effectiveness of different price signals in incentivising energy-using goods repair. We also investigate how lifestyles and income influence the impact of price signals. Furthermore, we assess the environmental impacts of these price signals. We apply a dynamic general equilibrium model combining material-flow analysis with a lifestyle model to two policy scenarios: (1) a repair bonus, and (2) higher Extended Producer responsibility fees, each under different repair barriers and heterogeneous lifestyle drivers. We find that, under low barriers, lowering repair costs could double repair rates, resulting in a 12 Mt/year decrease in waste by 2050, when we strengthen low-carbon cognitions in high-income groups, who constitute the largest portion of the population and are most likely to engage intentionally in ‘Repair’. High barriers to repair can reduce these gains by two-thirds. Low-income groups tend to respond more to price signals driven by their need to save money. Lower energy efficiency of repaired goods raises use-phase CO2 emissions, partly offsetting reductions in manufacturing/incineration, implying a trade-off between circular economy and climate mitigation goals. Raising EPR fees encourages sharing and ‘Refuse’, resulting in smaller waste generation and CO2 emissions. We highlight the importance of aligning price signals with measures that reduce barriers, addressing trade-offs, and implementing targeted awareness campaigns to achieve a sustainable circular economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103102"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145837472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Doubling of flood-induced bridge asset failure loss in Mozambique under 2050 climate","authors":"Yaning Qiao ,&nbsp;Yaru Guo ,&nbsp;Sebastian Rowan ,&nbsp;Ricardo Medina ,&nbsp;Xavier Espinet ,&nbsp;Jonathan Cullen ,&nbsp;Fanran Meng ,&nbsp;Zhi Cao","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103103","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103103","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mozambique, often impacted by severe flooding, faces challenges with its bridge networks, particularly due to climate change. Existing methods for evaluating flood-induced bridge asset failure loss lack a comprehensive national level risk assessment that includes a full spectrum of flood events and bridge-specific details. We introduce a new framework that quantifies flood-induced bridge failure loss nationally, incorporating climate change using an equivalent flood return period approach. This framework provides a continuous risk analysis, addressing the shortcomings of discrete flood return periods. Our analysis of 1,210 bridges in Mozambique indicates an annual expected values of bridge asset failure losses equivalent to 0.6 % of its 2021 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), or 83 million dollars. Under a high emission scenario, this loss could increase to 162 million dollars by 2050. The findings highlight the vulnerability of Mozambique’s bridges to floods with return periods of 500 to 1000 years, suggesting the need for revisions of bridge design codes. The framework’s utility extends beyond Mozambique; Other Global South countries can apply it to assess their bridge asset failure risks and strategically enhance bridge resilience. This method improves infrastructure management by identifying high-risk areas and justifying resource allocation for adaptation, enabling proactive responses to flood-induced challenges and enhancing climate resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103103"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145796216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Combined benefits of multi-hazard early warnings on human mobility resilience to tropical cyclones","authors":"Haiyan Liu ,&nbsp;Jianghao Wang ,&nbsp;Zhifeng Cheng ,&nbsp;Siqin Wang ,&nbsp;Laurence Hawker ,&nbsp;Jiatong Han ,&nbsp;Phil J. Ashworth ,&nbsp;Steve Darby ,&nbsp;Faith Ka Shun Chan ,&nbsp;Jian Liu ,&nbsp;Andrew J. Tatem ,&nbsp;Shengjie Lai","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103111","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103111","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Multi-hazard early-warning systems (MHEWS) are critical for mitigating extreme weather impacts and enhancing disaster resilience. However, quantitative empirical evidence on how different types of early warnings individually and collectively trigger preventive actions and influence resilience remains limited. Here, using location-based human mobility data aggregated from over 1.1 billion mobile devices across Chinese cities, we quantified daily intracity human mobility responses to 21,126 early warning signals during 19 tropical cyclones (TCs) from 2021 to 2023. To represent disaster resilience under MHEWS protection, we developed a protected resilience index that integrates both the magnitude of mobility changes and recovery durations. We found that, compared with city-level TC warnings alone, combined multi-level, multi-hazard warnings resulted in a 52.4 % reduction in mobility during TC exposure days, thereby increasing avoided direct population exposure by around 57.1 %. Each additional warning type further shortened recovery times, collectively reducing recovery durations by at least 55.6 %, with larger effects observed for stronger TCs. Under MHEWS protection, protected resilience remained statistically similar between moderate-intensity TCs (34 kt and 50 kt) but declined significantly under severe (≥64 kt) conditions. Although absolute reductions in exposure were greater in high-frequency, coastal, and wealthier cities, relative improvements from MHEWS were more pronounced in less frequently affected, inland, and socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. Consequently, MHEWS significantly narrowed resilience disparities among cities facing equivalent hazard exposures. This study introduces a scalable, behaviour-based framework for quantifying early-warning effectiveness, highlighting the essential role of integrated multi-level and multi-hazard warnings in disaster preparedness across cities amid escalating climate risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103111"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145921202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Low-carbon transition of phosphorus chemical industrial parks: A global systematic review","authors":"Xiang Yu ,&nbsp;Luzhi Wang ,&nbsp;Wentao Hu ,&nbsp;Mudan Wang ,&nbsp;Bei Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103080","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103080","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As an energy-intensive sector, the phosphorus chemical industry’s low-carbon transition is vital for achieving global net-zero carbon emission targets under the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, the sector’s transition is constrained bya series of systemic barriers, including uneven phosphate distribution, carbon emission disparities, incosistentcarbon accounting methodologies, high costs of technology upgrades, and the lack of targeted policy. To address these, global phosphorus production industry has been exploring low-carbon transformation pathways that promote industrial agglomeration, integrate the industrial chain, accelerate technological innovation, adopt diversified policy instruments, and strengthen enterprise-led transition initiatives. Given that the phosphorus chemical industry has exhibited a spatial agglomeration globally, industrial parks have emerged as critial platform where these synergistic mechanisms can be integrated and scaled. Consequently, industrial parks function not only as central operational nodes, but also as pivotal enablers of net-zero transitions in the global phosphorus industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103080"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145995527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Advancing sustainability in data-sparse landscapes using a water-energy-food nexus approach","authors":"Donald O. Akanga ,&nbsp;Nathan J. Moore ,&nbsp;Kyla M. Dahlin ,&nbsp;Dan Wanyama","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103104","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103104","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Increasing pressure on natural resources in the last decades has led to a growing need for balance between preserving ecosystems and meeting human needs. However, sustainability is frustratingly difficult to measure due to its spatially specific nature and data deficiencies. Water, energy, and food (WEF) are critical sectors required to sustain human livelihoods. Yet, these sectors are highly susceptible to pressures associated with climate change and other anthropogenic pressures which in turn threaten socio-ecological sustainability. Vulnerable populations in developing countries are disproportionately affected by these pressures. For example, changes in precipitation (water) influence agricultural yields (food), which in turn increase human influence on the environment in terms of energy consumption (more use of charcoal and wood). Using a WEF nexus framework, we assess the socio-ecological sustainability of the Greater Mau Forest Complex, an important yet fragile ecosystem in southwest Kenya, from 1990 to 2021. By integrating remote sensing, field interviews, and historical crop yield data, we address challenges of data scarcity in assessing socio-ecological systems. Our analysis reveals shifting landscape composition and corresponding climate trends over the past three decades, alongside their parallels with socio-ecological balance and community vulnerability to climate change. We find compounding effects of prolonged dry conditions, erratic onset of growing seasons, declining crop productivity, and intensifying dependence on bioenergy – factors that interact to destabilize the WEF nexus. Our findings underscore the urgency of nexus-based interventions to enhance resilience in ecologically sensitive regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103104"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145785163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mapping resilience pathway of smallholder farming community to cyclone-led climate disasters in coastal West Bengal, India","authors":"Amitava Panja ,&nbsp;Sanchita Garai ,&nbsp;Sanjit Maiti ,&nbsp;Rupak Goswami ,&nbsp;Siddhesh Zade ,&nbsp;Apoorva Veldandi ,&nbsp;Dipjyoti Gangopadhyay ,&nbsp;Gopal Sankhala","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103108","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103108","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cyclone-driven climate disasters and variability, compounded by small landholdings, low agricultural productivity, and declining natural resource quality in coastal regions, have exacerbated food, livelihood, and economic insecurity for rural agrarian communities. This study employs a participatory, quasi-quantitative framework using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) to construct mental models of smallholder farming communities in coastal India. Data were gathered from 360 respondents, and 24 maps were created at the village level under 8 blocks in 3 coastal districts of West Bengal through focus group discussions. These maps were quantitatively aggregated at the district level and subsequently combined to develop Social Cognitive Maps for the entire coastal West Bengal region. The study identifies perceived impacts of cyclone-driven climate disasters and assesses the effectiveness of adaptation strategies for building resilience pathway in coastal regions. FCM-based scenario analysis suggests that integrating adaptation strategies such as conservation and management of natural resources, improved crop management practices and building capacity and risk bearing ability functions synergistically, fostering a robust, perceived resilience pathway for smallholder farming communities. Natural resource management, integrated pest and nutrient management, and capacity-building and extension activities, were identified as major contributors to the anticipated changes within the system driven by the most perceived resilience pathway. This study offers critical insights for decentralized climate adaptation planning and highlights actionable areas for policy intervention in cyclone-affected coastal regions. The FCM framework presented here provides a transferable tool for integrating local knowledge into adaptive governance and resilience planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103108"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145823260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Surging scientific capabilities in cities worldwide after significant earthquakes","authors":"Yuting Liang ,&nbsp;Carlos Navarrete ,&nbsp;Jinfeng Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103109","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103109","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Natural disasters trigger complex social chain interactions. While scholars have largely assessed their impacts on society, much less is known about how such catastrophes contribute to the development of scientific capabilities. Here, we analyze 314,753 earthquake-related scholarly documents together with metadata on 1099 significant seismic events worldwide between 1980 and 2024 to examine how earthquakes influence the entry of new scientific capabilities into the portfolios of cities and countries. We find that major earthquakes can reconfigure research trajectories in cities near epicenters and stimulate activity across a broader range of scientific domains, irrespective of prior scientific capabilities. This diversification spans both related fields (e.g., geosciences and civil engineering) and unrelated fields (e.g., psychology and economics), particularly in the aftermath of the largest and most destructive events. The odds of entering new fields at the city level are associated with factors such as the number of people affected, historical exposure to earthquakes, and pre-existing scientific capabilities. These findings emphasize the necessity of leveraging geographic and institutional resilience to foster scientific diversification in disaster-prone regions, offering policymakers valuable insights into smart specialization strategies for risk mitigation and long-term knowledge development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103109"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145921203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Beyond projects: Relational durability and the measurement of climate adaptation success in practice","authors":"Stacy-ann Robinson ,&nbsp;Mara Dolan ,&nbsp;Emma Bouton ,&nbsp;J. Timmons Roberts ,&nbsp;D’Arcy Carlson","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103110","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103110","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As global adaptation policy moves to operationalize the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), questions remain about what sustains success once external funding and oversight have ended. This article advances a relational framework for understanding how adaptation endures, arguing that success is less about technical design and short-term outputs, and more about the continuity of relationships among people, institutions, and place. Drawing on qualitative fieldwork across three rural Jamaican communities that implemented two United Nations Development Programme-supported agricultural adaptation projects, this study examines how adaptation practices have persisted more than five years after project closure. Through interviews, focus groups, and field observation, it identifies seven interlinked factors – volunteerism, local-institutional partnerships, embedded leadership, national alignment, locally tailored livelihoods, perceptions of fairness and inclusion, and long-term community enthusiasm – that have allowed adaptation to remain active and meaningful over time. The findings demonstrate that durability emerges from relational continuity, i.e. the social and institutional infrastructures that embed adaptation in everyday life. Introducing <em>relational durability</em> as both an analytical and policy lens, the article reframes adaptation success as a collective, co-produced process grounded in recognition, reciprocity, and care, and calls for these relational capacities to be treated as core indicators of progress under the GGA.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103110"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145880925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}