Global Environmental Change最新文献

{"title":"Status of global accumulation of marine debris","authors":"Eranga K. Galappaththi ,&nbsp;Jennifer D. Russell ,&nbsp;Mitch Dolby ,&nbsp;Thomas Newsome ,&nbsp;Sithuni M. Jayasekara","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103058","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103058","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The issue of marine debris pollution is a growing crisis, with detrimental effects on ecosystems, marine organisms, and human health. More than 800 coastal and marine species are affected, resulting in billions of dollars of economic losses each year. To better understand the dimensions of this challenge, it is important to establish a solid scientific knowledge base. This study aims to synthesize the global research and evidence of marine debris accumulation in coastal areas. Through a systematic literature review, we found that Europe and Asia are the primary regions where marine debris accumulation is studied, with the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans accounting for most of research. The majority of publications are by first authors from European and Asian institutions, with the US also contributing significantly. Most studies focus on the volume of marine debris, with general waste being the most studied type. Additionally, physical and environmental factors play a larger role than human-based factors in marine debris accumulation. Overall, there is a trend of increasing and relocating marine debris accumulation across all determining factors. We also identified important areas for future research to deepen our understanding of the factors influencing debris accumulation. In particular, there is a notable gap in the practical application of tools and methods for tracking and identifying marine debris, such as satellite remote sensing, specialized databases, and computational modeling approaches. The study findings offer vital insights for decision-making regarding marine debris accumulation, benefiting policymakers, researchers, and other stakeholders striving towards a more sustainable globe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103058"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145046997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Adaptive flood risk management: A decision support system integrating deep learning, digital twins, and economic risk assessment","authors":"Miia Chabot ,&nbsp;Jean-Louis Bertrand","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103069","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103069","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Floods are among the most destructive climate-related disasters, with their frequency and severity increasing due to climate change and urban expansion. In response to rising claims and insufficient adaptation measures, insurers are progressively withdrawing from high-risk areas, thereby shifting the responsibility for risk management to businesses and municipalities, who must either implement their own solutions or resort to self-insurance. Effective flood risk management requires accurate forecasting, robust financial impact assessments, and decision support systems (DSS) to inform adaptation strategies. Within the framework of the European Union (EU) Floods Directive, this study develops an integrated, AI-powered DSS that combines deep learning-based flood forecasting (ConvLSTM models), economic vulnerability modelling (Joint Research Centre methodology), digital twin simulations, and predictive analytics to support data-driven adaptation planning. The framework was initially applied to assess pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flood risks in the coastal city of Nice, France, and subsequently extended to over 100 public and private sites across three urban municipalities. The findings demonstrate that this methodology improves the accuracy of risk assessments and provides a structured basis for capital allocation, insurability evaluation, and the optimization of adaptation investments. The multi-site deployment revealed significant governance, legal, and behavioural constraints, with public authorities and family-owned businesses responding differently despite comparable risk information. This research shows that integrating AI and digital twin technologies advances the EU Floods Directive’s objectives by enhancing risk mapping, preparedness, and transparency, while supporting public–private partnerships and extending protection to vulnerable populations at risk of losing insurance coverage.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103069"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145217513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Implications of demographic policies on China’s food-related environmental footprints amid population ageing","authors":"Qingling Wang ,&nbsp;Han Zhang ,&nbsp;Kuishuang Feng ,&nbsp;Pan He ,&nbsp;Richard Wood ,&nbsp;Peipei Tian ,&nbsp;Yiming Wang ,&nbsp;Saige Wang ,&nbsp;Yu Liu ,&nbsp;Huifang Liu ,&nbsp;Heran Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103082","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103082","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China has implemented a range of demographic policies to address population ageing, which exert significant potential impacts on aggregate food demand and associated environmental effects. However, prior studies have not integrated these policies and age-specific food consumption patterns into environmental impact projections. Here, we quantify China’s four food-related environmental footprints under representative demographic policy scenarios by employing a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) and a multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model. This study is the first attempt to link China’s pro-natalist policies with multi-dimensional food-related environmental footprints through an age-cohort demand model. We find older adults (&gt; 60 years) will become the largest contributor to the nation’s total food-related footprints (accounting for approximately 37% by 2050), despite having below-average per capita footprints. From 2020 to 2050, total land use footprint is projected to increase, whereas GHG emissions, water consumption, and eutrophication footprints would decline. Reduction in GHG emissions is primarily driven by declining environmental intensities, while changes in other three footprints are mainly due to dynamic population sizes. Relative to the no-policy baseline scenario, China’s demographic policies could lead to an approximate 3–18% increase in environmental footprints by 2050, imposing a notable burden on sustainability targets. Land use footprint would emerge as the most policy-sensitive indicator, with its peak year delayed by at least a decade under the most aggressive fertility-boosting policy. By analyzing dietary change scenarios, we find only ambitious transitions (nationwide adoption of plant-rich diets) can fully offset the policy-induced footprint increases, except for water consumption, in which case plant-rich diets would conversely result in higher footprints. Our findings underscore dietary change can help mitigate the additional environmental pressures induced by China’s demographic policies, while also highlighting critical trade-offs across different environmental indicators.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103082"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145553550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The potential negative impact of the UNFCCC: An analysis of sectoral, geographical, and temporal problem shifts from climate policies and measures in 25 industrialized countries","authors":"Ashok Vardhan Adipudi,&nbsp;Rakhyun E. Kim,&nbsp;Frank Biermann","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103075","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103075","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate mitigation policies and measures, while well-intentioned, can generate unintended consequences—a phenomenon known as ‘problem-shifting’, where efforts to curb climate change inadvertently create new environmental or socio-economic challenges. Although issues such as carbon leakage have been acknowledged under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, no systematic analysis has examined the magnitude and direction of these shifts. This study analyzes 182 national communications submitted by 25 Global North countries between 1994 and 2023, identifying 718 instances of problem-shifting risk across 712 climate policies and measures. These risks span sectors, institutions, and regions, manifesting as cascading sectoral shifts, transboundary displacements from the Global North to the Global South, and temporal shifts that intensify climate burdens for future generations. Communities in developing regions—especially those dependent on vulnerable sectors—face disproportionate impacts, compounding existing vulnerabilities. The findings underscore the urgent need for holistic, Earth-system-based approaches to climate action that account for system-wide human-environment interactions, minimize unintended consequences, and prevent further problem-shifting. A transition towards such integrative strategies is essential to achieving equitable and sustainable outcomes in global climate governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103075"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145358855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Technological breakthroughs can reverse the unintended negative impacts of carbon tariffs on China’s steel sector and global economy","authors":"Zhixiong Weng ,&nbsp;Chaoyi Guo ,&nbsp;Xiaorui Liu ,&nbsp;Pauline Miquel ,&nbsp;Xinyuan Liu ,&nbsp;Hancheng Dai","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103083","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103083","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The implementation of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is expected to have far-reaching implications for the global economy. This study develops a global dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to primarily simulate the impacts of imposing carbon tariffs exclusively on China’s steel sector. The results show that a high carbon tariff scenario would exert considerable negative pressure on China’s economy, leading to an additional GDP loss of 72.02 billion USD by 2050, a reduction of 127.06 thousand jobs in the steel sector by 2060, and a loss of 32.63 billion USD in sectoral value added, alongside a notable decline in steel exports. While CBAM reduces the international competitiveness of China’s energy-intensive exports, it also induces export substitution effects in other countries. We also find that green technological advancement in China’s steel sector can substantially offset the adverse effects of carbon tariffs. Under a high-carbon-tariff and high-technology scenario, China could achieve an additional GDP gain of 281.56 billion USD by 2060, a 2.91% increase in steel sector employment (833.60 thousand jobs), and a 232.53 billion USD rise in value added. This study also warns of the potential rebound effect in carbon emissions, as technological progress may lead to electricity demand expansion in the steel sector, thereby offsetting some of the climate benefits. These findings suggest that countries must actively prepare for CBAM by reducing the carbon intensity of their exports and investing in long-term low-carbon technological transitions to maintain competitiveness in a carbon-constrained global economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103083"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145516908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"De-energization as maladaptation: Uneven residential exposure to wildfire Public Safety Power Shutoffs and compound heat","authors":"Kate Burrows ,&nbsp;Kathryn McConnell ,&nbsp;Nora Louise Schwaller ,&nbsp;Chantel F. Pheiffer","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103067","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103067","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In response to growing levels of wildfire destruction, electric utility companies are adopting powerline de-energization as an adaptation strategy intended to prevent wildfire ignitions. While reducing wildfire risk, planned de-energizations also expose residents to electricity loss, potentially causing harmful consequences. We investigated the extent to which planned de-energization can be considered a form of <em>maladaptation</em>, in which an adaptive response to a climate-related hazard results in unintended, concurrent harms. To do so, we examined the co-occurrence of Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPSs) with extreme heat (temperature ≥ 32 °C) in California between October 2021 and September 2024. Our analysis revealed compound heat-PSPS outages throughout this period, including extreme temperatures exceeding 40 °C, during power shutoffs. Compound heat-PSPS events were geographically concentrated in census block groups with higher proportions of older adults and mobile home residents, both populations which may be at increased risk of heat-related morbidity and mortality. While they affected a relatively small proportion of customers de-energized by PSPSs, compound heat-PSPS outages raise concerns over extreme heat exposure when access to electricity-based cooling strategies is curtailed. Evaluating the maladaptive effects of institutional responses to climate change hazards is critical for comprehensively weighing both the benefits and harms of emerging adaptation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103067"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145060874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trade of crop products contribute to the alleviation of global nitrate leaching risks","authors":"Xuchong Chen ,&nbsp;Ling Liu ,&nbsp;Yu Lu ,&nbsp;Xuan Wang ,&nbsp;Zhaohai Bai ,&nbsp;Lin Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103074","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103074","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>International crop trade plays a pivotal yet understudied role in mitigating global nitrate leaching, a major driver of water pollution. By analyzing 59 years of data (1961–2019) across 190 countries and 164 crops, we quantify how changes in global crop sourcing are associated with the average nitrate leaching intensity of production—defined at the national scale as kg NO₃⁻ per kcal or per kg protein. Our findings reveal that global trade reduced nitrate leaching by 53.6 Tg (8.4 %) and 130 Tg (20 %) for calorie- and protein-equivalent production in the past 59 years, respectively, primarily by relocating agricultural output to regions with lower leaching intensities. Exporting nations, such as the USA, Brazil, and Argentina, exhibited leaching rates 20–40 % below global averages, potentially due to better nitrogen management practices. Conversely, import-dependent countries like China and Japan sourced crops from higher-intensity systems, highlighting disparities in environmental governance. Post-2000, trade optimality improved as low-leaching exporters expanded, yet geopolitical fragmentation and climate risks threaten these gains. We propose integrating leaching intensity metrics into trade agreements and bolstering sustainable practices to align food security with water quality goals. This study underscores trade’s dual role as a catalyst for environmental mitigation and a source of systemic risk, offering actionable pathways to safeguard freshwater ecosystems within planetary boundaries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103074"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145324834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How do developing countries estimate their climate finance needs under the Paris Agreement?","authors":"Abdulrasheed Isah ,&nbsp;Florian Egli ,&nbsp;Anna Stünzi ,&nbsp;Tobias Schmidt","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103087","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103087","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are central to the Paris Agreement, serving as both pledges of climate ambition and platforms for articulating climate finance needs. However, how developing countries quantify these needs and the influencing factors remain poorly understood. Using an inductive research design based on expert interviews, we identify domestic and international factors influencing how countries estimate finance needs in their NDCs. Political institutions and the strategic perceptions of policymakers regarding NDCs – either as negotiation tools or investment plans – influence the specificity of climate finance needs estimates. Limited technical capacity and stakeholder engagement are important constraints in several countries. Meanwhile, international factors such as negotiating groups and consultants contribute to more detailed costing of climate finance when enabled by supportive policy environments. We propose a typology describing the spectrum of NDC archetypes, reflecting the interaction between domestic and international factors, as well as bottom-up and top-down estimation approaches. Our findings underscore that climate finance quantification is both technical and political, with implications for transparency and resource mobilization potential of future NDCs. Policymakers should remove barriers to obtaining granular sectoral and climate data, demonstrate political commitment, and strengthen collaborations with subnational levels. Capacity-building initiatives should strengthen the institutional and stakeholder foundations of detailed NDCs. Climate finance consultants should prioritize knowledge transfer and sustained collaboration with domestic institutions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103087"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145613584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Participatory storyworld building for unlocking climate adaptation","authors":"Benjamin T. Pederick ,&nbsp;Martin Potter ,&nbsp;Hailey Cooperrider ,&nbsp;Sidney Icarus ,&nbsp;Donna Luckman ,&nbsp;Rebecca Dahl ,&nbsp;Mark Elliot ,&nbsp;Trish Cave ,&nbsp;Jason Tampake ,&nbsp;Brett A. Bryan","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103054","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103054","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Worldwide, local communities are experiencing increasing climate change impacts, for which they are underprepared, and which are predicted to further intensify into the future. Closing this knowledge action gap in local climate adaptation is a socio-political challenge, requiring social science solutions. Recognising the strategic value of local governance actors, we prototyped an innovative participatory storyworld building method with local government decision makers. This method narratively downscaled climate pathways to a collective place-based storyworld. Participants imagined and detailed an alternate version of their real community, presented along near future climate pathways, mapping features, validating climate risks, and scripting individual storylines. Storyworld building proved compelling and useful for a diverse cohort as an innovative and effective form of applied science storytelling that fosters collaboration across difference and discipline. We found that expressing climate change as a local storyworld makes climate science meaningful, increases feelings of agency, and establishes a multilateral flow of knowledge between climate science and local storylines. This method has since been implemented in several local councils, operationalised into online localisation workshops for local government staff and stakeholders, and is gathering momentum as a transferable method for local governments to engage and mobilise coordinated community climate action.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103054"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Heatwaves and violence against women: a spatial analysis of female homicides in Brazil","authors":"Luan Marca ,&nbsp;Marco Tulio Aniceto Franca ,&nbsp;Jessica Antunes Oliveira ,&nbsp;Kamila da Silva Baum","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103085","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103085","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the association between heatwaves and female homicides in Brazil, using data from 5,341 municipalities (representing 95% of the country) from 2001 to 2021. Spatial econometric models are applied, and the results reveal a positive association between rising temperatures and the incidence of female homicides, with notable “hot spots” of domestic violence in the Northeast and Southeast regions. The preferred model explains approximately 43% of the variation in female homicides, reinforcing the robustness of the estimates. The research also shows that lower gender wage gaps and higher job stability are associated with reduced rates of female homicides. Overall, the findings indicate that climatic stressors such as heatwaves are associated with increased risks of violence against women, particularly in contexts of socioeconomic vulnerability. The study highlights that public policies aimed at addressing climate-related risks and promoting women’s economic empowerment may contribute to reducing this form of violence in a warming climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103085"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145619735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}