Global Environmental Change最新文献

{"title":"Citizen science data can significantly improve predictions of potential ranges of non-charismatic species: a study on two freshwater sponges","authors":"Łukasz Dylewski ,&nbsp;Radosław Puchałka ,&nbsp;Joanna T. Bialas ,&nbsp;Katarína Fogašová ,&nbsp;Zuzanna Jagiełło ,&nbsp;Sandra Kaźmierczak ,&nbsp;Henn Timm ,&nbsp;Marcin Tobółka ,&nbsp;Grzegorz Tończyk ,&nbsp;Julia Zawadzka ,&nbsp;Marcin K. Dyderski","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103056","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103056","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Freshwater sponge species play crucial roles in aquatic ecosystems, yet their distribution patterns and responses to environmental changes remain insufficiently understood. Relying solely on platforms like GBIF for predicting species distribution may be inadequate and occasionally misleading due to biases and inaccuracies in the data. We investigated the distribution records and potential future distributions of two freshwater sponge species, <em>Spongilla lacustris</em> and <em>Ephydatia fluviatilis</em>, across Europe. Using various data sources, including the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), literature records, and internet naturalist data (iEcology), we compiled a comprehensive dataset comprising 1,330 records for <em>S. lacustris</em> and 9,854 records for <em>E. fluviatilis</em>. While GBIF records predominated in Western Europe, additional sources filled gaps in distribution records, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe. Species distribution models (SDMs) performed well, with <em>S. lacustris</em> exhibiting a broad climatic optimum range in Western and Northern Europe, while <em>E. fluviatilis</em> displayed a narrower range, primarily in northern regions. Future projections indicated a northward shift of freshwater sponge species in response to climate change, with potential contractions in Baltic Sea countries. These findings underscore that using diverse data sources such as scientific literature, field surveys, local ecological knowledge, and citizen science initiatives offers a more holistic view of species distribution patterns. Social media platforms also play a significant role in supplementing biodiversity data and engaging communities in conservation efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103056"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145005035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding the role of pluralistic ignorance in biodiversity conservation: A research agenda","authors":"Sandra J. Geiger ,&nbsp;Hirotaka Imada ,&nbsp;Carya Maharja ,&nbsp;Nattavudh Powdthavee ,&nbsp;Valeria Vitale ,&nbsp;Lei Zhang ,&nbsp;Claudio D. Rosa ,&nbsp;Zenith N.C. Delabrida ,&nbsp;Kristian S. Nielsen ,&nbsp;Franz Essl ,&nbsp;Mathew P. White","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103043","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103043","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Most people believe that biodiversity loss is human-caused, yet they may not realize how many others share this belief. Such collective misperceptions—known as pluralistic ignorance—may hinder individual and system changes required to address biodiversity loss. At the same time, reducing pluralistic ignorance may promote positive change. In this Perspective, we provide a brief overview of existing work on pluralistic ignorance about environmental topics and propose an agenda for impactful pluralistic ignorance research in the biodiversity domain. We highlight several research gaps and offer recommendations, including (a) investigating different forms of pluralistic ignorance, (b) improving our understanding of consequences and determinants, and (c) broadening the intervention toolkit to counter pluralistic ignorance for biodiversity conservation. To increase the Perspective’s practical applicability, we describe historical and contemporary case studies on pluralistic ignorance and biodiversity conservation from around the globe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103043"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145005036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Synergistic long-range decision support for integrated green-grey flood management","authors":"Ghazi Al-Rawas ,&nbsp;Mohammad Reza Nikoo ,&nbsp;Mohammad Reza Hassani ,&nbsp;Seyyed Farid Mousavi Janbehsarayi ,&nbsp;Mohammad Hossein Niksokhan","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103086","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103086","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study presents a novel framework for evaluating the long-term resiliency of flood management strategies in complex nonurban-urban watersheds, with a focus on the synergy between grey and green infrastructure. The methodology involves simulating hydrological conditions of both upstream and downstream areas using the SWMM model, followed by a two-stage scenario generation approach. The first stage optimizes the implementation of detention dams in the upstream nonurban region, while the second stage focuses on optimizing Green Infrastructure (GI) in the downstream urban area. By integrating grey and green flood control measures, a total of 2500 combined scenarios were generated and tested under extreme hurricane conditions to assess their resilience and economic feasibility. The results highlight that higher investments in both detention dams and GI significantly enhance system resiliency, and leads to faster recovery after flood events. Strategies with greater infrastructure investment maintained higher performance throughout sequential flood events, and exhibited smaller reductions in effectiveness during peak events. Conversely, lower-cost strategies experienced greater performance degradation. Then, using resilience performance threshold, we identified high-performing strategies and employed the Condorcet method to select the optimal scenario that balances long-term resiliency with cost-effectiveness. The selected strategy reduced peak flow at the urban area’s entrance by 85.7% and decreased local urban flood volume by 65.5%. Our research underscores the critical role of integrated grey-green infrastructure in achieving long-term flood resilience. Also, this framework provides decision-makers with actionable insights for designing cost-effective, high-resilience flood management strategies that consider both economic and community benefits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103086"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145657818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mapping the solution space for local adaptation under global change: An test of concept for the Vietnamese Mekong delta","authors":"Frances E. Dunn ,&nbsp;Marjolijn Haasnoot ,&nbsp;Haomiao Du ,&nbsp;Star Karabil ,&nbsp;Philip S.J. Minderhoud ,&nbsp;Vincent Schippers ,&nbsp;Murray Scown ,&nbsp;Annisa Triyanti ,&nbsp;Trang Vu ,&nbsp;Hans Middelkoop","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103071","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103071","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Current and projected environmental changes are complex and unprecedented in the context of modern societies. Effective adaptation strategies must consider constraining and enabling factors from both physical and societal aspects, as well as associated uncertainties at different points in time. Here we present a multidisciplinary method to quantify the solution space for individual adaptation measures—a conceptual space describing the feasibility of effectively implementing an adaptation measure, bounded by physical and societal constraints. Solution spaces can be projected over time under different scenarios and for multiple adaptation measures to identify what measures are available at any point, when the solution space changes (enabling or disabling choices), and what can be done to expand the space. We demonstrate the method for an illustrative case study of the coastal Mekong delta in Vietnam, an area with intense overlapping drivers of relative sea-level rise increasing coastal flooding. We consider three adaptation measures (mangroves, dikes, retreat) over the 21st century. The implementation reveals critical conditions for adaptation strategies, and when they might become infeasible without enabling actions. Our novel systematic approach can be implemented in real-world cases using data from the specific case of interest to assess the feasibility of measures determined by the (bio)physical, socio-economic, governance and legislation context, and provides insight into adaptation limitations and measures to maintain and/or expand the solution space. Such a multi-dimensional assessment is challenging due to the identification of critical conditions for many different dimensions, but is valuable to evaluate adaptation potential and design adaptive pathways plans to deal with uncertain changing conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103071"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145263033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A novel approach to developing local flood vulnerability scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways framework: Sectoral risks and policy implications","authors":"Bien Thanh Vu ,&nbsp;Olabisi S. Obaitor ,&nbsp;Antje Katzschner ,&nbsp;Lena C. Grobusch ,&nbsp;Dominic Sett ,&nbsp;Andrea Ortiz-Vargas ,&nbsp;Michael Hagenlocher ,&nbsp;Ulrike Schinkel ,&nbsp;Felix Bachofer ,&nbsp;Linh Khanh Hoang Nguyen ,&nbsp;Matthias Garschagen","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103079","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103079","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Developing locally tailored vulnerability scenarios is crucial for effective flood risk management, yet existing approaches often lack integration with long-term socioeconomic trajectories. To address this gap, the study introduces an innovative methodology that downscales global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and integrates them with current vulnerability data to create future vulnerability scenarios for key sectors. This approach is applied to Hue City, Central Vietnam as a case study, focusing on health, agriculture, transport, and water, to illustrate its practical application. The findings indicate that under SSP1, characterized by sustainable growth, socio-economic policies focused on sustainability lead to substantial vulnerability reductions across all sectors. Health systems become more resilient, sustainable agricultural practices minimize economic losses, and improved infrastructure reduces transport disruptions and water contamination risks. SSP2 reflects a continuation of current socio-economic trends, resulting in moderate improvements; however, incremental policy changes and resource constraints leave persistent vulnerabilities. In contrast, SSP3, marked by fragmented and poorly managed growth, exacerbates flood risks, where weak healthcare systems, fragile agricultural practices, inadequate transport infrastructure, and minimal water contamination controls intensify flood-related impacts. This study demonstrates the importance of mainstreaming socioeconomic dynamics into flood risk management and offers a transferable framework for scenario-based planning in diverse regional contexts. Future research should aim to quantify vulnerability trajectories, thereby enhancing resilience planning and supporting data-driven decision-making in flood-prone areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103079"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145382577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The politics of coastal erosion in Sicily: Concrete infrastructures and the economy of disaster","authors":"Silja Klepp","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103076","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103076","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper analyses how coastal governance and coastal protection infrastructure in Sicily are driven by specific interests that produce and stabilise unsustainable coastal protection practices and contribute to a coastal ‘disaster capitalism’. The driving logics of the coastal ‘disaster economy’ are rooted in mafia <em>socionatures</em> and rationalities of speculation and are reinforced by the widespread belief that coastal protection requires large-scale cement infrastructure. This belief is based on a dualistic divide between nature and culture and on narratives of controlling the sea. As these narratives appear to be consensual in Sicily, unsustainable coastal protection infrastructures become not only possible, but publicly desirable. The article is based on an analytical lens of political ecology and on extensive ethnographic research. I have also developed a tentative transformative research approach. This approach is based on the idea of shaping more just and sustainable coastal futures through public engagement and through art-based methods. Together with photographer Barbara Dombrowski, our vision was to create a space where the issue of coastal erosion could be discussed with reference to the photographs. The photos were taken during a joint research trip and in collaboration with local people. Alongside the ethnographic analysis, the photographs offer a fresh perspective on coastal erosion, one that emphasises the political and economic interests of powerful actors rather than the engineering perspectives that otherwise dominate. The photographs are currently being exhibited at various locations in Sicily, alongside public panel discussions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103076"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145598647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Emerging pathways in climate litigation: Transnational justice and the Global South","authors":"Harikrishnan Ramesh Varma ,&nbsp;Rahul B. Hiremath ,&nbsp;Ravi Sharma","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103084","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103084","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Global South asserts its influence in the global climate discourse, challenging entrenched power structures and advocating for equitable solutions to climate change. Climate litigation is increasingly being used as a tool to address climate-related harms. Traditional climate litigation frameworks narrowly define ‘Global South Docket’ as cases filed within domestic courts of the Global South, overlooking transnational cases that address harm in the Global South but are filed in international courts or Global North jurisdictions. To address this gap, we introduce the concept of a <em>Latent Global South Docket</em>, encompassing cases with significant ties to the Global South regardless of jurisdiction. Through the systematic clustering of 831 cases filed between 1994 and 2023, the study identifies the emerging pathways in transnational climate litigation that underline the critical intersection of climate justice and sustainable development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103084"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145657764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bridging extreme climate risks, financial precarity, and adaptation gaps: Advancing inclusive adaptation in rainfed agricultural systems","authors":"Van Touch ,&nbsp;Ariane Utomo ,&nbsp;De Li Liu ,&nbsp;Nicholas Harrigan ,&nbsp;Le-Anne Bannan ,&nbsp;Panhaleak Chay ,&nbsp;Caitlin Finlayson ,&nbsp;Kirt Hainzer ,&nbsp;Andrew McGregor ,&nbsp;Katharine McKinnon ,&nbsp;Lita Mom ,&nbsp;Sophanara Phan ,&nbsp;Pherom Song ,&nbsp;Daniel K.Y. Tan ,&nbsp;Thong Anh Tran ,&nbsp;Saroeut Yong ,&nbsp;Brian R. Cook","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103073","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103073","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The intensification of extreme climate events is no longer a distant threat but is a pressing, global reality for smallholders. This study unpacks the complex interconnections among extreme climate events, perceived risks, and financial constraints to adaptation by integrating multi-source evidence – from historical climate trends and downscaled climate projections from 25 General Circulation Models to household census data from 996 smallholder households in Northwest Cambodia’s rainfed agricultural region. Employing statistical modelling, change detection, trend analysis, and correlation assessments, this study uncovers intensifying and shifting patterns in wet and dry spells, uncovering their cascading effects on smallholder rainfed agricultural productivity. These findings reveal a worsening pattern of extreme wet and dry spells. Prolonged wet periods are increasing risks of flooding, soil erosion, and nutrient leaching, while prolonged dry spells lasting up to 35 days threaten agricultural productivity and food security. Climate projections under SSP245 and SSP585 indicate increased intensification of these extremes, with wet spells lengthening at three times the rate under high-emissions scenarios and dry spells becoming shorter yet more severe. The majority of smallholders perceive intense rainfall and agricultural drought as the most pressing climate risks, aligning with observed trends, while financial constraints emerge as a critical barrier to adaptation. These findings underscore the pressing need for an interdisciplinary approach that integrates climate science, socio-economic realities, and policy frameworks. Advancing inclusive, systems-level adaptation requires expanding access to climate finance, risk-sharing mechanisms, and extension services, alongside strengthening climate literacy and early warning systems. This study contributes to global adaptation discourse by offering actionable insights to inform equitable, context-specific policies that enhance smallholder resilience to climate extremes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103073"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145324836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Will women save the planet? Correlation, causality, and common causes","authors":"Ingrid Hjort ,&nbsp;Gry Østenstad","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103077","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103077","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While evidence suggests a strong positive cross-country correlation between women’s empowerment and progress on environmental and climate issues, the causal mechanisms remain unclear. This article critically examines the assumption that women’s empowerment drives climate action and environmental protection. By exploring possible causal channels and existing empirical evidence, we highlight the need to distinguish causality from correlation in this domain. We call for an exploration into whether advancements in women’s empowerment and environmental issues are determined by shared underlying factors connected to economic, political and institutional aspects. A more nuanced understanding of these complex interrelations is essential for developing effective and evidence-based environmental and gender policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103077"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145358856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A review of everyday urban adaptations: What they are and how they can advance progress in adaptation","authors":"Cecilia Alda-Vidal ,&nbsp;Marta Olazabal","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103081","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103081","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Everyday practices are increasingly recognised as key to adapting to climate change. They emerge as especially important in cities where the complexity and uncertainty of the compound effects of crises and socio-economic contexts are a cradle for individual and community action. However, little is known regarding what constitutes everyday adaptation and how everyday urban adaptations help to effectively reduce climate risks. We conducted a systematic and thematic review and analysis to take stock of scientific publications. We retrieved 632 documented everyday adaptations in urban contexts from 45 relevant publications. We offer two important reflections that challenge prevailing approaches to the conceptualisation and assessment of everyday adaptations. First, our analysis highlights a high diversity of everyday adaptations and emphasises the importance of actions that encompass social relations and cooperative action and connect individual with collective well-being. Second, the study reveals a lack of methodological and data-driven consideration of the impacts and outcomes of everyday adaptations, resulting in a limited understanding of the contribution of these adaptations to overall progress in urban adaptation. To advance towards more comprehensive and nuanced assessments, we identify three key needs: (I) considering the interconnected and cumulative effects of everyday adaptation across scales, (II) exploring everyday imaginaries, and (III) accounting for justice and equity issues. Overall, our review underscores the need for more capacious conceptualisations of urban adaptation to account for the wide array of practices and multiple objectives it encompasses for urban dwellers, and highlights the importance of further work in the area of evaluation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103081"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145461636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}