Can zero deforestation agreements in the cattle sector protect Colombia’s forests and páramos?

Zero Deforestation Agreements (ZDAs) for the beef and dairy sectors in Colombia could curb land cover change in the country’s highly biodiverse tropical forests and páramos. Improved understanding of the structure of the cattle supply chain and the ZDAs’ potential area of influence can help target companies with high-risk supply chains, inform implementation, and set realistic expectations for the ZDAs contribution to conservation goals for forest and páramos. We provide the first map of infrastructure for the beef and dairy sectors and link this to a dataset of cattle transactions to delineate “supply zones” or potential buying areas for each slaughterhouse and dairy. We use these supply zones to assess three spatially explicit scenarios of the potential reach of the ZDAs with expanded participation. At present, ZDA signatories’ supply zones cover 10.4 Mha or 23% of Colombia’s forests, with a large area of influence associated with beef sector signatories. Participation of all major companies could nearly double the ZDAs reach to include 41% of forests, and full participation could reach 49% of forests. The dairy ZDA also targets high alpine páramos, and 57% of unprotected páramos are within signatories’ supply zones. Full participation could support the conservation of 96% of this unique ecosystem. We found that indirect animal movements make up 80% of the supply chain, so policy implementation will depend on monitoring and traceability systems that go beyond suppliers selling directly to slaughterhouses or dairies. More companies must participate and effectively implement the ZDAs to realize this conservation potential.