{"title":"Disastrous Inferences? The Ecological Fallacy in Disaster and Emergency Management Research","authors":"P. Jargowsky","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3670914","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3670914","url":null,"abstract":"In research on disaster and emergency management, the limited available data is often summarized at higher levels of aggregation, particularly summaries for geographic areas – sometimes referred to as “ecological data.” Measures of social vulnerability and disaster post-mortems based on such data purporting to measure or explain individual-level phenomena have been criticized as committing an “ecological fallacy” (Beccari 2016; Duneier 2006). Stated briefly, one commits an ecological fallacy if one assumes that relationships observed at an aggregate level imply that the same relationships exist at the individual level. In fact, estimates of causal effects from aggregate data can be wrong both in magnitude and direction (Robinson 1950). This article examines the factors that contribute to incorrect inferences that can arise from the analysis of aggregate data and provides guidance to disaster and emergency management researchers to help them avoid committing ecological fallacies.","PeriodicalId":320822,"journal":{"name":"Development Economics: Agriculture","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134040703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Agricultural Productivity, Inter-Sectoral Labor Shift, and Economic Growth in India","authors":"S. Balaji, S. Babu","doi":"10.2499/p15738coll2.133787","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133787","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we study the transformation process Indian agriculture exhibited in the recent past, studying its policy implications. Between the years 2005-06 and 2015-16, more than 52 million workers left agriculture, which did not have any effect on agricultural output due to productivity improvements. We estimate the contribution of productivity growth and structural change in agriculture to national productivity growth during 1981-2016. We estimate differentials in agricultural productivity and in their ability to contribute to the structural change process for 21 major states of India. Using revised employment estimates, we trace major changes during the pre-reforms (before 1991) and post-reforms periods. Results show that in the pre-reforms period, the impact of productivity improvements in agriculture on agricultural output was equated by the new workforce entering into this sector, leading to a stagnant labor productivity trend. The labor-shift from agriculture during the early years of the post-reforms period, which increased further in the next decade, has led to a consistent rise in agricultural productivity. In the absence of reforms and the associated labor shift, the productivity growth in Indian agriculture would have been much lower. A similar labor shift during the last decade has not affected agricultural output, which has risen more rapidly. This result holds true for almost all states studied. There exists a positive relation between labor-shift and agricultural output in a cluster of states. Decomposition results indicate ‘within-sector’ productivity growth is the major source of overall growth, with a rising contribution of ‘structural change’. Studying the sources of growth across states offers new scope to achieve inter-sectoral productivity convergence.","PeriodicalId":320822,"journal":{"name":"Development Economics: Agriculture","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125451699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Characterization of Family Farming between Brazil and Haiti: A Comparative Analysis","authors":"Weldy Saint-Fleur","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3606714","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3606714","url":null,"abstract":"Family farmers run more than 90% of the world’s farms. They produce about 80% of the world's food and occupy 70-80% of agricultural land. These numbers prove that Family Farming is the form of agriculture in the world. However, food insecurity is more prevalent in these families. According to FAO, most of these people live in developing countries. Latin America and the Caribbean is home to 42 million food-insecure people, so this crisis requests agricultural policies to reduce this chain of poverty. From this point of view, the article aims to characterize family farming between Brazil and Haiti in a comparative approach using data from various official sources. The aim is to use these data to understand the situation of family farming in these two countries and to analyses, the policies dedicated to the development of this sector.","PeriodicalId":320822,"journal":{"name":"Development Economics: Agriculture","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123541768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Alfredo J. Mainar‐Causapé, P. Boulanger, Hasan Dudu, E. Ferrari
{"title":"Policy Impact Assessment in Developing Countries Using Social Accounting Matrices: The Kenya Sam 2014","authors":"Alfredo J. Mainar‐Causapé, P. Boulanger, Hasan Dudu, E. Ferrari","doi":"10.1111/rode.12667","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12667","url":null,"abstract":"This paper describes the structure and estimation of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Kenya for the year 2014. Among its specificities, this SAM includes a very high disaggregation of the agri‐food sector and accounts for the double role of households as producers and consumers. Accounting for these characteristics is crucial to provide robust socioeconomic analysis in the context of developing countries. Indeed, this type of database is valuable to perform ex‐ante evaluations of economic policies with various economic models and techniques. In this paper, we present an application with a linear multiplier analysis (backward linkages and value chain decomposition). The results show the capacity of the primary sector in Kenya to generate value added and employment, with this growth distributed more intensely in rural households whose main livelihood is semi‐subsistence agriculture.","PeriodicalId":320822,"journal":{"name":"Development Economics: Agriculture","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125987788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Are Energy Endowed Countries Responsible for Conditional Convergence?","authors":"Matthew E. Oliver, G. Upton","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3414528","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3414528","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the relationship between fossil fuel (FF) endowments and economic convergence. Countries with plausibly exogenous FF endowments show patterns of convergence, as indicated by standard convergence tests. By contrast, we fi nd no evidence of convergence among countries without FF endowments. These patterns of convergence are consistent across measures of physical capital, human capital, and total factor productivity. We discuss the implications of this result for economic development and comment on its implications for global climate policy.","PeriodicalId":320822,"journal":{"name":"Development Economics: Agriculture","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127642159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Use of Artificial Intelligence in Agriculture","authors":"Akshaya Gambhire, Bilal N Shaikh Mohammad","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3571733","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3571733","url":null,"abstract":"We all know that in this modern era, technology plays a very important role in every task. In every field technology is used to enhance work efficiency, for less time consumption and for perfect and better results. Food, shelter, and cloth are three essential things for human beings. Increasing population ultimately leads to increased farming results. At today’s date farming techniques are enhanced using technology such as artificial intelligence which results in enhanced quality of yield. This paper throws the vision on how the use of technology can be fueled the result of different sectors of agriculture.","PeriodicalId":320822,"journal":{"name":"Development Economics: Agriculture","volume":"293 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134316698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Dynamic Transmissions Between Oil Specific Shocks and Financial Stress: Evidence From the Euro Area","authors":"Onur Polat","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3564101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3564101","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we investigate dynamic transmissions between oil market and Euro area financial stress by implementing the TVP-VAR model. Our data cover monthly WTI oil price, global oil production, the Kilian Index and a measure for financial stress for the Euro area (Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress, CISS) and range from September 2000 to December 2018. Empirical results of the study verify that, the TVP-VAR model captures dynamic nature of the structural shocks arisen from the global oil market to the Euro area financial stress consistently and robustly.","PeriodicalId":320822,"journal":{"name":"Development Economics: Agriculture","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131145967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Generalized Benders Decomposition for Location-Allocation of Wastewater Treatment Plants","authors":"A. Vatsa, Saurabh Chandra","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3564223","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3564223","url":null,"abstract":"Pollution of freshwater sources is a major problem in many developing economies. Environmental norms mandate that Industrial wastewater must be treated before releasing it in the environment or recycling. Apart from large enterprises, many medium and small-scale enterprises use water for industrial purposes. However, many of these enterprises do not have enough financial resources to set up their own wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). Government policies encourage establishing a common set of WWTPs that can service all the enterprises in an industrial cluster and will be more economical to operate. We formulate the problem of locating WWTPs of appropriate sizes and allocating polluting firms to them as a Mixed Integer Non-linear Program (MINLP). The model minimizes the setup cost and the operating cost for the network of WWTPs. For the operating cost, empirical evidence shows that there exist economies of scale with wastewater volume and dis-economies of scale with pollutant concentration. Hence, the operating cost function is non-convex. We provide an exact convexification strategy for this problem. Still, the commercial solvers are unable to solve practical size instances. Therefore, we propose a Generalized Benders decomposition based algorithm with many refinements. We exploit the structure of the problem to solve the sub-problem very efficiently. Our proposed method can solve this MINLP much more efficiently than commercial solvers.","PeriodicalId":320822,"journal":{"name":"Development Economics: Agriculture","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131322514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"COVID-19 and Oil Prices","authors":"K. Kingsly, Kouam Henri","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3555880","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3555880","url":null,"abstract":"As demonic panic continues to grip the world over the outbreak of COVID19, There is plenty of bearish sentiment hanging over the markets. The economies of most sub-Saharan African countries who for the past three years have been under the IMF economic partnership program may have to develop extra muscles to face the continues drop in commodity prices most especially crude oil. The continuous spread of COVID-19 seems to be the major external economic compass on which all a sundry rely for the market orientation. Oil prices have plummeted as the Coronavirus has intensified across much of Europe and North America. The Energy Information Agency (EIA) has revised down its global oil demand forecast, which suggests that major importers such as China as well as European countries will reduce demand for oil. The latter has followed the trend of industrial production, which has slowed as manufacturing of waxes, perfumes, dyes, shaving creams, shampoos and conditioners that rely on refined oil have been disrupted by the virus. As such, Brent and WTI both fell by 24.59% and 30% to $31.13 and $30 per barrel respectively on Monday, March 9th. Not only has the virus halted manufacturing supply chains in China, but it has also exacerbated the global cyclical slowdown, with both Euro Area and German industrial production plummeting in recent months.","PeriodicalId":320822,"journal":{"name":"Development Economics: Agriculture","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130087243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fidel Perez�?Sebastian, J. Steinbuks, J. Féres, I. Trotter
{"title":"Electricity Access and Structural Transformation: Evidence from Brazil's Electrification","authors":"Fidel Perez�?Sebastian, J. Steinbuks, J. Féres, I. Trotter","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-9182","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9182","url":null,"abstract":"This study proposes a novel supply-side mechanism driving economic structural transformation: grid electrification. Increasing electricity availability affects the reallocation of inputs to more productive activities through generating higher returns and lowering entry costs in sectors with greater infrastructure intensity. The results of modeling and econometric analysis based on Brazil's historical data over the period 1970-2006 confirm that the manufacturing sector benefits the most in these two dimensions, followed by services and agriculture. The expansion of electricity infrastructure explains about 17 percent of this process and 32 percent of the observed increase in GDP per capita. Simulations of a multisector neoclassical growth model with heterogeneous firms help assessing the effectiveness of different electrification policies.","PeriodicalId":320822,"journal":{"name":"Development Economics: Agriculture","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117036929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}