Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment最新文献_第8页

Paths of progress: Forecasting global electric vehicle demand amidst demographic and economic growth 进步之路：在人口和经济增长的背景下预测全球电动汽车需求

IF 7.7 1区工程技术

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2025.104928

Minal Chandra , Pablo Busch , Francisco Parés Olguín , Gil Tal

{"title":"Paths of progress: Forecasting global electric vehicle demand amidst demographic and economic growth","authors":"Minal Chandra , Pablo Busch , Francisco Parés Olguín , Gil Tal","doi":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104928","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104928","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study estimates future motorization levels of light-duty vehicles (LDVs) and electric vehicles (EVs) under different economic growth scenarios and demographic trends, particularly the working-age population using publicly available data. By 2035, global LDV sales will range between 93–124 million, with China leading (27–35 million), followed by South Asia/Oceania (16–28 million), Middle East/Africa, and South America. If countries meet their electrification targets, global EV demand will reach 59–73 million. Internal Combustion Engine vehicle (ICEV) sales are projected to remain stable, with over 70 % of 2035 sales replacing retiring vehicles, while 80 % of EV sales contributing to new mobility growth. ICEV fleets will expand until the mid-2040 s, especially in emerging markets, where EVs add to total stock rather than replacing ICEVs. In Europe and US, ICEVs will be substituted more rapidly. The study underscores the need for improved ICEV fuel efficiency, electricity grid decarbonization, and strong EV policies to meet climate goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23277,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 104928"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144771363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A risk analysis approach to transportation infrastructure climate protection investment 交通基础设施气候保护投资的风险分析方法

IF 7.7 1区工程技术

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2025.104931

Ashkan Zare, Elise Miller-Hooks

引用次数: 0

Reducing fuel consumption and tailpipe nitrogen oxides emissions through large-spacing truck platooning 通过大间距卡车队列行驶减少燃料消耗和尾气氮氧化物排放

IF 7.7 1区工程技术

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2025-07-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2025.104917

Luo Jiang, Mahdi Shahbakhti

引用次数: 0

Uncertainties in life cycle assessment of renewable fuels for green shipping corridors 绿色航运走廊可再生燃料生命周期评估的不确定性

IF 7.7 1区工程技术

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2025-07-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2025.104916

Jing Wang , Xiaoyu Li , Dong Yang

{"title":"Uncertainties in life cycle assessment of renewable fuels for green shipping corridors","authors":"Jing Wang , Xiaoyu Li , Dong Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104916","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104916","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study quantifies the key uncertainties affecting the lifecycle environmental impacts of renewable liquefied hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol within the Singapore-Rotterdam green shipping corridor. By integrating multi-source data on renewable energy and Automatic Identification System (AIS)-derived vessel activities, we employ Monte Carlo simulation to capture production-stage variability and conduct AIS-driven sensitivity analysis to probe operational uncertainties. Results show that solar-based fuels achieve only 71%–81% of the emission reductions achieved by wind-based fuels, and wind-based fuels from the Netherlands have 1.4 times higher lifecycle emissions than those from Australia. Dual-fuel engines can lose up to 12.5% of their emission benefits due to pilot fuel ratios of 5%–10%, while fuel cells improve reductions to 91.7% compared to 86.6% for dual-fuel engines. Additionally, an efficient onboard carbon capture system can achieve net-negative emissions during voyages. This study provides evidence-based insights linking fuel pathway environmental impacts with uncertainty analysis, offering guidance for effective maritime decarbonization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23277,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 104916"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144750647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A cloud-supported plug-in hybrid electric buses energy-saving control integrating spatial–temporal traffic condition 一种融合时空交通状况的云支持插电式混合动力客车节能控制

IF 7.7 1区工程技术

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2025-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2025.104927

Yue Wang , Weiliang Li , Tao Wang , Wei Zhong , Bolin Gao , Chen Lv

{"title":"A cloud-supported plug-in hybrid electric buses energy-saving control integrating spatial–temporal traffic condition","authors":"Yue Wang , Weiliang Li , Tao Wang , Wei Zhong , Bolin Gao , Chen Lv","doi":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104927","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104927","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The lack of adaptive control parameters combined with fluctuating traffic conditions complicates energy-saving optimization for plug-in hybrid electric buses (PHEB). This paper proposes an innovative updatable and evolvable energy-saving control based on vehicle-to-cloud (V2C) and traffic condition. We construct the spatial–temporal characteristics by extracting the representative route cycles in different traffic periods. Then, we establish an updatable and evolvable energy-saving control strategy integrating spatial–temporal traffic conditions, including an online updating strategy and an evolving torque distribution strategy. According to the spatial–temporal feature trigger mechanism, some key parameters, including the driving mode parameter and double deep Q learning (DDQL) network parameter, are dynamically updated to the vehicle controller by V2C. We verify the strategy on a vehicle-cloud simulation platform, and results show that the strategy enhances energy efficiency and adaptability compared with other conventional methods, improved by 14.13%, 11.72%, and 10.18% in the morning peak, off-peak, and evening peak.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23277,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 104927"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144721611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Different slopes for different folks: Variations in walkability-walking associations across sociodemographic groups 不同的斜坡适合不同的人：不同的社会人口群体的步行能力-步行关联的变化

IF 7.7 1区工程技术

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2025-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2025.104914

Lindsay M. Braun

{"title":"Different slopes for different folks: Variations in walkability-walking associations across sociodemographic groups","authors":"Lindsay M. Braun","doi":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104914","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104914","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Past research suggests that walkability may be a weaker predictor of walking behavior for marginalized groups. While some studies have discussed potential reasons for this difference, few have tested them empirically. I address this gap using the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (n = 148,480), asking: (1) Do associations between walkability and walking differ across sociodemographic groups? (2) If so, what are the potential explanations? Using logistic regression models with interaction terms, I assess how associations between an objective walkability index (exposure) and utilitarian walking (outcome) vary by race/ethnicity and income, then examine how these differences are moderated by financial constraints and environmental barriers. The results show (1) weaker associations between walkability and walking for Black, Hispanic, and lower-income individuals and (2) differences in potential explanations for these results by race (infrastructure/safety disparities) vs. income (low vehicle access). These findings highlight the importance of differentiated strategies to promote walking across sociodemographic contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23277,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 104914"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144721612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Non-exhaust emissions of battery electric vehicles and their impact on tunnel ventilation 纯电动汽车的非废气排放及其对隧道通风的影响

IF 7.7 1区工程技术

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2025.104929

Dengkai Tu , Jingchao Xie , Henan Chai , Jiaping Liu

{"title":"Non-exhaust emissions of battery electric vehicles and their impact on tunnel ventilation","authors":"Dengkai Tu , Jingchao Xie , Henan Chai , Jiaping Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104929","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104929","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The significant characteristic of non-exhaust emissions of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) has a crucial impact on the tunnel ventilation design. This study established a model to quantify the non-exhaust emission factors applicable to the calculation of tunnel ventilation. Furthermore, it explores the impact of BEVs on tunnel ventilation through a case study. The results show that BEVs are 23 % heavier and their PM<sub>2.5</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> emissions increased by 15.4 % and 13.7 %, respectively. Regenerative braking significantly improves the emissions level, but its effectiveness diminishes at higher speeds. Without regenerative braking, the increase in BEVs leads to an increase in the tunnel required ventilation. The required ventilation decreased by 7.3 % at 50 % BEVs with full regenerative braking. When NO<sub>x</sub> dictates the required air, ventilation demand decreases rapidly with BEVs increase. The research results can provide important references for the update of ventilation standards for tunnels and the non-exhaust emissions reduction strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23277,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 104929"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144723107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A transitional response high-fit predictive framework for container vessel contingency reroute 集装箱船舶应急改道的过渡响应高拟合预测框架

IF 7.7 1区工程技术

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2025.104915

Eugene Yin Cheung Wong , Wei Yim Yap , Kev Kwok Tung Ling , Zengqi Xiao

{"title":"A transitional response high-fit predictive framework for container vessel contingency reroute","authors":"Eugene Yin Cheung Wong , Wei Yim Yap , Kev Kwok Tung Ling , Zengqi Xiao","doi":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104915","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104915","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Supply chain disruptions affect shipping service reliability, operations efficiency and carbon emissions. In disruptions like Red Sea Crisis, shipping lines struggled to anticipate the effectiveness of rerouting decisions while minimising shipping costs and emissions. A novel transitional response regression model (TRRM) within a three-stage high-fit predictive framework is developed, providing decision supports on rerouting and evaluating its environmental impacts. The model applies in the Red Sea Crisis with a longitudinal analysis across Asia-Europe trade services with rerouting via Cape of Good Hope, identifying key predictors, including vessel speed changes and number of port changes, from over fifty predictors. It provides improvement on a three-target measure of industry service reliability, container throughput and carbon emission mitigation by up to 85 %, with recommended reroutes with a lower emission increase rate from 47 % to 21 %. The model enhances emergency rerouting decisions with predictive insights in balancing service reliability, operations efficiency and emissions under the geopolitical uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23277,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 104915"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144721610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Joint modelling of electric vehicle charging and daily activity scheduling 电动汽车充电与日常活动调度联合建模

IF 7.7 1区工程技术

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2025.104911

Senlei Wang , Janody Pougala , Tim Hillel

{"title":"Joint modelling of electric vehicle charging and daily activity scheduling","authors":"Senlei Wang , Janody Pougala , Tim Hillel","doi":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104911","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104911","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The use of Electric Vehicles (EVs) introduces new constraints and choice dimensions in daily mobility behaviour, requiring EV drivers to adapt their activity participation, start times, durations, and locations to accommodate charging needs. Existing approaches to evaluating EV charging policies and infrastructure planning often lack behavioural realism. By assuming homogeneous charging behaviour and ignoring its connection to activity-travel patterns, these approaches fail to capture nuanced responses to charging management policies (e.g., pricing) and infrastructure constraints. We introduce a new modelling approach that explicitly captures heterogeneous behaviours, effectively modelling the trade-offs between multiple-choice dimensions and policy responses. Unlike sequential decision models, our simultaneous model structure jointly addresses activity and charging schedule, characterised by activity and charge times (start time and duration), activity sequences, locations and charging modes (e.g. slow, fast, and super-rapid). By operationalising this simultaneous modelling framework, we analyse individual activity and charging behaviours, leveraging activity-based charging flexibility (e.g., home, work, and public locations) and responses to policies. Our findings demonstrate the variability in activity and charging behaviours across different use cases, highlighting the importance of considering diverse charging access and activity patterns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23277,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 104911"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144723106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Examining spatial equity of dockless shared bikes and e-bikes for residential and working populations 研究无桩共享单车和电动单车在住宅和工作人群中的空间公平性

IF 7.3 1区工程技术

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2025.104922

Yongping Zhang , Zhanqiang Shi , Mengqiu Cao , Wu Xiao , Hui Kong

{"title":"Examining spatial equity of dockless shared bikes and e-bikes for residential and working populations","authors":"Yongping Zhang , Zhanqiang Shi , Mengqiu Cao , Wu Xiao , Hui Kong","doi":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104922","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104922","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Shared micro-mobility is experiencing growing global popularity. Previous studies mainly explored the shared bike-associated spatial equity issue faced by the residential population in Western cities, often neglecting shared e-bike systems and the working population. This paper examines the equity performance of both shared bikes and shared e-bikes, and considers both residential and working populations in a Chinese city (i.e., Wenzhou). Utilising an accessibility-based framework integrating multi-source data like massive user-generated trip and mobile phone data, our results show that shared bikes provide better horizontal equity than e-bikes due to broader fleet availability and distribution. Vertical equity analysis reveals systematic disparities between residential and working populations. Among working populations, individuals aged 19–29 enjoy better access to shared e-bikes, while those aged 50–59 face consistently lower accessibility across both bike types. In contrast, among residents, the 50–59 age group show relatively higher accessibility, whereas younger residents (19–29) encounter limitations, particularly for shared e-bikes. Non-local populations are disadvantaged in both modes, and female users exhibit slightly higher accessibility. This study provides valuable insights into the micro-mobility equity in Asian urban contexts, offering implications for policy-making and planning to develop sustainable and equitable micro-mobility systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23277,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 104922"},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144704862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0