Uncertainties in life cycle assessment of renewable fuels for green shipping corridors

IF 7.7 1区工程技术 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2025-07-31 DOI:10.1016/j.trd.2025.104916

Jing Wang , Xiaoyu Li , Dong Yang

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Abstract

This study quantifies the key uncertainties affecting the lifecycle environmental impacts of renewable liquefied hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol within the Singapore-Rotterdam green shipping corridor. By integrating multi-source data on renewable energy and Automatic Identification System (AIS)-derived vessel activities, we employ Monte Carlo simulation to capture production-stage variability and conduct AIS-driven sensitivity analysis to probe operational uncertainties. Results show that solar-based fuels achieve only 71%–81% of the emission reductions achieved by wind-based fuels, and wind-based fuels from the Netherlands have 1.4 times higher lifecycle emissions than those from Australia. Dual-fuel engines can lose up to 12.5% of their emission benefits due to pilot fuel ratios of 5%–10%, while fuel cells improve reductions to 91.7% compared to 86.6% for dual-fuel engines. Additionally, an efficient onboard carbon capture system can achieve net-negative emissions during voyages. This study provides evidence-based insights linking fuel pathway environmental impacts with uncertainty analysis, offering guidance for effective maritime decarbonization.

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绿色航运走廊可再生燃料生命周期评估的不确定性

本研究量化了影响新加坡-鹿特丹绿色航运走廊内可再生液化氢、氨和甲醇生命周期环境影响的关键不确定性。通过整合可再生能源和自动识别系统（AIS）衍生的船舶活动的多源数据，我们采用蒙特卡罗模拟来捕捉生产阶段的可变性，并进行AIS驱动的敏感性分析，以探测操作的不确定性。结果表明，太阳能燃料的减排量仅为风能燃料的71%-81%，荷兰风能燃料的生命周期排放量是澳大利亚风能燃料的1.4倍。由于试验燃料比为5%-10%，双燃料发动机可能会损失高达12.5%的排放效益，而燃料电池将减排提高到91.7%，而双燃料发动机的减排率为86.6%。此外，高效的机载碳捕获系统可以在航行期间实现净负排放。本研究提供了基于证据的见解，将燃料途径的环境影响与不确定性分析联系起来，为有效的海上脱碳提供指导。

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来源期刊

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment 工程技术-运输科技

CiteScore

14.40

自引率

9.20%

发文量

314

审稿时长

39 days

期刊介绍： Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment focuses on original research exploring the environmental impacts of transportation, policy responses to these impacts, and their implications for transportation system design, planning, and management. The journal comprehensively covers the interaction between transportation and the environment, ranging from local effects on specific geographical areas to global implications such as natural resource depletion and atmospheric pollution. We welcome research papers across all transportation modes, including maritime, air, and land transportation, assessing their environmental impacts broadly. Papers addressing both mobile aspects and transportation infrastructure are considered. The journal prioritizes empirical findings and policy responses of regulatory, planning, technical, or fiscal nature. Articles are policy-driven, accessible, and applicable to readers from diverse disciplines, emphasizing relevance and practicality. We encourage interdisciplinary submissions and welcome contributions from economically developing and advanced countries alike, reflecting our international orientation.