Tobacco ControlPub Date : 2025-05-15DOI: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054586.wit
{"title":"Withdrawn: Impact of the NHS stop smoking services on smoking prevalence in England: a simulation modelling evaluation","authors":"","doi":"10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054586.wit","DOIUrl":"10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054586.wit","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":" ","pages":"420"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12171390/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"36815676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tobacco ControlPub Date : 2025-05-15DOI: 10.1136/tc-2023-058253
Hannah Vincent, Anthony A Laverty, Jamie Brown, Emma Beard, Ilze Bogdanovica
{"title":"Association between the implementation of standardised tobacco packaging legislation and illicit tobacco and cross-border purchasing in England: a time-series analysis between 2012 and 2020.","authors":"Hannah Vincent, Anthony A Laverty, Jamie Brown, Emma Beard, Ilze Bogdanovica","doi":"10.1136/tc-2023-058253","DOIUrl":"10.1136/tc-2023-058253","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>In May 2016, the UK announced standardising packaging legislation for tobacco products. There was a 12-month transition period with both branded and standardised packs on the market until May 2017. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the implementation of standardised packaging in England was associated with changes in illicit tobacco and cross-border purchasing.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We used Smoking Toolkit Study data covering the time period from 2012 to 2020. We ran time-series analysis using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variable models to investigate the monthly changes in illicit tobacco and cross-border purchasing in England. The model was adjusted for other tobacco control policies implemented during the relevant time period and tobacco pricing. We used May 2017 as an implementation point and run sensitivity analysis using July 2016 and February 2017 as alternative implementation points given phased introduction of the policy.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The average prevalence of illicit tobacco and cross-border purchasing in the past 6 months was 14.4%. The implementation of standardised tobacco packaging legislation was associated with a monthly decline in illicit tobacco and cross-border purchases after May 2017 by 0.16% per month (beta=-0.158, 95% CI -0.270 to -0.046). The results were robust to considering different implementation points for the policy (July 2016: beta=-0.109, 95% CI -0.213 to -0.005; February 2017: beta=-0.141, 95% CI -0.245 to -0.036).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>In contrast to the tobacco industry's argument that the legislation would lead to an increase in the illicit tobacco and cross-border market, this study demonstrates that the implementation of the policy is associated with a decline in illicit tobacco and cross-border purchases in England.</p>","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":" ","pages":"330-334"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139111161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tobacco ControlPub Date : 2025-05-15DOI: 10.1136/tc-2024-058647
Coral E Gartner
{"title":"Industry responds to Australia's disposable vape import ban with cheap alternatives and encouraging illegal imports.","authors":"Coral E Gartner","doi":"10.1136/tc-2024-058647","DOIUrl":"10.1136/tc-2024-058647","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":" ","pages":"419"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140132582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tobacco ControlPub Date : 2025-05-15DOI: 10.1136/tc-2023-058382
Erin A Vogel, Alayna P Tackett, Jennifer B Unger, Maria J Gonzalez, Natalia Peraza, Nikki S Jafarzadeh, Michelle K Page, Maciej L Goniewicz, Melissa Wong, Adam M Leventhal
{"title":"Effects of flavour and modified risk claims on nicotine pouch perceptions and use intentions among young adults who use inhalable nicotine and tobacco products: a randomised controlled trial.","authors":"Erin A Vogel, Alayna P Tackett, Jennifer B Unger, Maria J Gonzalez, Natalia Peraza, Nikki S Jafarzadeh, Michelle K Page, Maciej L Goniewicz, Melissa Wong, Adam M Leventhal","doi":"10.1136/tc-2023-058382","DOIUrl":"10.1136/tc-2023-058382","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Availability of flavours and potential modified risk tobacco product (MRTP) claims may influence young adults' (YAs') perceptions of and intentions to use nicotine pouches ('pouches').</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>YAs aged 21-34 years (N=47, <i>M</i> <sub>age</sub>=24.5, <i>SD</i>=3.1) with past-month nicotine/tobacco use (10.6% cigarette-only, 51.1% e-cigarette-only, 38.3% dual use) and no intention to quit were randomised to self-administer four Zyn 3 mg nicotine pouches in a 4 (flavour; within-subjects: smooth, mint, menthol, citrus) × 2 (MRTP claim on packaging; between subjects: present or absent) mixed-factorial design. After self-administering each pouch, participants reported appeal, use intentions and perceived harm compared with cigarettes and e-cigarettes. Three mixed-factorial analysis of variances (ANOVAs) examined main and interactive effects of flavour and MRTP claim on appeal, use intentions and comparative harm perceptions.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Mint (<i>M</i>=55.9, <i>SD</i>=26.4), menthol (<i>M</i>=49.7, <i>SD</i>=26.8) and citrus (<i>M</i>=46.6, <i>SD</i>=24.8) flavours were significantly more appealing than smooth (<i>M</i>=37.6, <i>SD</i>=25.4; p<0.001). MRTP claim did not significantly affect product appeal (p=0.376). Use intentions were greater for mint (<i>M</i>=2.6, <i>SD</i>=1.3) and menthol (<i>M</i>=2.0, <i>SD</i>=1.1) flavours than smooth (<i>M</i>=1.8, <i>SD</i>=1.0; p=0.002). Flavour did not affect comparative harm perceptions (p values>0.418). MRTP claims increased use intention (p=0.032) and perceptions of pouches as less harmful than cigarettes (p=0.011), but did not affect perceived harm relative to e-cigarettes (p=0.142). Flavour × MRTP claim interactions were not significant.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Flavoured (vs smooth) pouches were more appealing to YAs. MRTP claims reduced perceived harm of pouches compared with cigarettes; however, intentions to switch were low. To protect YAs' health, regulatory restrictions could target flavours and MRTP claims.</p>","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":" ","pages":"315-322"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11199376/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139040536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tobacco ControlPub Date : 2025-05-15DOI: 10.1136/tc-2023-058307
Janet Audrain-McGovern, Divya Manikandan, Fodie Koita, Olivia Klapec, Wallace B Pickworth, Matthew D Stone
{"title":"Effect of sweet flavouring on the rewarding and reinforcing value of cigarillo use among young adults.","authors":"Janet Audrain-McGovern, Divya Manikandan, Fodie Koita, Olivia Klapec, Wallace B Pickworth, Matthew D Stone","doi":"10.1136/tc-2023-058307","DOIUrl":"10.1136/tc-2023-058307","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Cigarillos dominate the US cigar market, and young adults largely drive use. While young adults prefer flavoured to non-flavoured cigarillos, especially those flavoured to taste like fruit or other sweets, the factors that underlie this preference have received little attention. We sought to determine if key indicators of abuse liability, the rewarding and reinforcing effects, are greater for sweet versus non-flavoured cigarillos.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Young adults (18-24 years old) completed three laboratory visits assessing the subjective rewarding value (exposure paradigm), relative reinforcing value (computerised choice task) and absolute reinforcing value (ad libitum cigarillo smoking session) of sweet-flavoured versus non-flavoured cigarillos. General linear regression models were fit with the appropriate family link for each outcome measure.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Young adults rated sweet-flavoured cigarillos as more rewarding (estimated marginal mean (EMM) =4.52, 95% CI 4.00 to 5.03) than the non-flavoured cigarillo (EMM=3.31, 95% CI 2.80 to 3.83; B=1.20, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.60, p<0.001). The reinforcing value of sweet-flavoured cigarillos, measured by break point, was higher relative to non-flavoured cigarillos (6.34 out of 10), especially among young adults with a preference for flavoured cigarillos (B=1.94, 95% CI 0.71 to 3.18, p=0.003). Young adults took 1.9 times the number of puffs (35.75 vs 19.95) from sweet-flavoured cigarillos compared with non-flavoured cigarillos (Rate Ratio =1.94, 95% CI 1.30 to 2.90, p<i><</i>0.001).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Sweet flavouring increases the abuse liability of cigarillos among young adults as reflected in greater liking, motivation to use and actual use. Banning sweet flavouring in cigarillos may diminish their use in young adults.Trial registration number CT.gov (NCT05092919).</p>","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":" ","pages":"294-301"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11116272/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138483007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tobacco ControlPub Date : 2025-05-15DOI: 10.1136/tc-2024-058609
Eric K Soule, Matthew E Rossheim, Melvin D Livingston, Cassidy R LoParco, Kayla K Tillett, Thomas Eissenberg, Steve Sussman
{"title":"Hidden flaws in e-cigarette industry-funded studies.","authors":"Eric K Soule, Matthew E Rossheim, Melvin D Livingston, Cassidy R LoParco, Kayla K Tillett, Thomas Eissenberg, Steve Sussman","doi":"10.1136/tc-2024-058609","DOIUrl":"10.1136/tc-2024-058609","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use has increased since e-cigarettes were introduced to the market nearly 20 years ago. Researchers continue to conduct studies to understand the health risks and benefits of e-cigarettes to inform health education and promotion efforts as well as public policy. Studies funded by the tobacco industry examining the potential risks and benefits of e-cigarettes have also been conducted and are sometimes published in the scientific literature. Frequently, tobacco and e-cigarette industry-funded researchers report findings that contradict research funded by other sources. While many industry-funded studies may appear methodologically sound at first glance, in some cases, industry-funded studies include methodological flaws that result in misleading conclusions. The tobacco industry's use of biased research to influence tobacco-related policy decisions in the past is well-documented. This commentary provides specific examples of recent e-cigarette research funded by the tobacco/e-cigarette industry in which methodological flaws result in misleading conclusions that support industry goals. Given the long history of biased research conducted by the tobacco industry, there is a need to assess whether research funded by the e-cigarette industry similarly contains methodological flaws. We emphasise the need for tobacco and e-cigarette-funded research to be scrutinised by non-industry-funded subject matter experts and call for journals to not consider manuscripts that have received support from the tobacco or e-cigarette industry.</p>","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":" ","pages":"390-392"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141306896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tobacco ControlPub Date : 2025-05-15DOI: 10.1136/tc-2023-058287
Mauricio Luis Minacapilli Manetti, Valentina Gonzalez Peluffo, Victoria Taglioretti, Mary Barros, Virginia Nunez, Tamara Melian, Graziele Grilo, Laura Llambi
{"title":"Flavours and design features on tobacco product packaging near schools before and after plain packaging implementation in Montevideo, Uruguay.","authors":"Mauricio Luis Minacapilli Manetti, Valentina Gonzalez Peluffo, Victoria Taglioretti, Mary Barros, Virginia Nunez, Tamara Melian, Graziele Grilo, Laura Llambi","doi":"10.1136/tc-2023-058287","DOIUrl":"10.1136/tc-2023-058287","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Monitoring tobacco industry marketing strategies in countries that have introduced plain packaging helps with documenting variations in the market during the transition period. Uruguay implemented plain packaging in February 2020. We describe changes in the characteristics of tobacco packaging, content and sticks before and after plain packaging implementation.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data were collected across 15 neighbourhoods in different socioeconomic areas in Montevideo, Uruguay, before and after implementation (2019 and 2021). A high school or college was selected in each neighbourhood as the walking protocol starting point. Two stores were visited per neighbourhood. Cigarettes and roll-your-own tobacco (RYO) were purchased and coded for the presence of taste or sensation lexical and imagery features.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The number of unique products increased between 2019 (n=23) and 2021 (n=40). Prior to implementation, all packs presented design features. After its implementation, 95.7% of cigarette packs complied with regulations. Overall, 34.7% of cigarettes and RYO were flavoured in 2019 versus 50.0% in 2021 (p=0.01). In 2019, all flavoured cigarette packs conveyed taste through language and/or imagery, while cigarettes had designs on the filter suggesting the potential for altering the flavour. In 2021, 44.0% of cigarette packs indicated flavour through lexicon; and 81.0% of cigarette sticks still included a flavour capsule.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>After implementation, we noticed an increase in the availability of unique flavoured cigarettes and RYO among surveyed retailers. However, this increase was less pronounced compared with what is reported in the Latin American region. Non-compliance was identified. Greater efforts should be made enforcing current policy.</p>","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":" ","pages":"386-389"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140190109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tobacco ControlPub Date : 2025-05-15DOI: 10.1136/tc-2023-058281
Ian Holdroyd, Namrata Puntambekar, Pete Driezen, Shannon Gravely, Anne C K Quah, Steve Shaowei Xu, Prakash C Gupta, Geoffrey T Fong, Mangesh S Pednekar
{"title":"Evaluation of the effectiveness of the Indian government's policies to strengthen health warning labels on smokeless tobacco products: findings from the 2010-2019 Tobacco Control Project India Surveys.","authors":"Ian Holdroyd, Namrata Puntambekar, Pete Driezen, Shannon Gravely, Anne C K Quah, Steve Shaowei Xu, Prakash C Gupta, Geoffrey T Fong, Mangesh S Pednekar","doi":"10.1136/tc-2023-058281","DOIUrl":"10.1136/tc-2023-058281","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Smokeless tobacco (SLT) packaging in India had a single symbolic (a scorpion) health warning label (HWL) in 2009 covering 40% of the front surface. In 2011, it was replaced with four pictorial images. In 2016, HWLs were enlarged to 85% on the front and back. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of the old (symbolic and smaller images) and larger HWLs.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data were from the Tobacco Control Project India Survey and included respondents who used SLT in Wave 1 (2010-2011, n=5911), Wave 2 (2012-2013, n=5613) and Wave 3 (2018-2019, n=5636). Using a repeated-measures design, weighted logistic regression models assessed whether there were changes in seven HWL effectiveness measures within the domains of awareness, salience, cognitive and behavioural responses. A cohort design was employed to test whether HWL effectiveness in Waves 1 and 2 was associated with quitting SLT in Waves 2 and 3, respectively.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The 2011 HWL revision did not result in any significant changes in HWL effectiveness. There was no significant change in HWL awareness and salience after larger HWLs were introduced in 2016, but respondents were more likely to consider SLT health risks (Wave 2=17.9%, Wave 3=33.6%, p<0.001) and quitting SLT (Wave 2=18.9%, Wave 3=36.5, p<0.001). There was no change in HWLs stopping SLT use (Wave 2=36.6%, Wave 3=35.2%, p=0.829); however, respondents were more likely to avoid looking at HWLs (Wave 2=10.1%, Wave 3=40.2%, p<0.001). Effectiveness of older, symbolic and smaller pictorial HWLs was not associated with quitting SLT.</p><p><strong>Discussion: </strong>There was no significant change in HWL effectiveness following the revision from a symbolic to a pictorial image, but enlarging pictorial images resulted in some improved cognitive and behavioural effects. Results suggested wear-out of HWL salience and that the effectiveness of warnings depends on both their design and time since implementation.</p>","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":" ","pages":"341-349"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11239794/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139432812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tobacco ControlPub Date : 2025-05-15DOI: 10.1136/tc-2024-058760
Hollie Bendotti, Coral E Gartner, Henry M Marshall, David Ireland, Gail Garvey, Sheleigh Lawler
{"title":"Exploring associations of population characteristics and tobacco and vape retailer density and proximity in Australia: a scoping review.","authors":"Hollie Bendotti, Coral E Gartner, Henry M Marshall, David Ireland, Gail Garvey, Sheleigh Lawler","doi":"10.1136/tc-2024-058760","DOIUrl":"10.1136/tc-2024-058760","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>This scoping review synthesises Australian evidence on associations between tobacco and vape retailer density/proximity and various population measures and smoking behaviour to identify research gaps and inform future policy and strategies.</p><p><strong>Data sources: </strong>Following Joanna Briggs Institute methodology, relevant studies published in English since 2003 were identified via searches of eight databases in March and August 2023.</p><p><strong>Study selection: </strong>Two reviewers independently completed screening procedures. Eligible studies were from Australia and described associations between tobacco or vape retailer density/proximity and adult or youth smoking/vaping prevalence or behaviours, neighbourhood socioeconomic status, geographic location, school locations and/or Indigenous status.</p><p><strong>Data extraction: </strong>Results are reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews checklist.</p><p><strong>Data synthesis: </strong>Of 794 publications screened, 12 studies from 6 Australian states were included. Six studies from five states reported statistically significant associations between neighbourhood-level socioeconomic disadvantage and tobacco retailer density, yet only two studies from two states found a significant relationship between retailer density and adult smoking prevalence. Increasing retailer density was consistently significantly associated with increasing geographical remoteness in three states. No studies explored associations with tobacco retailer proximity or vape retailer density/proximity.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Despite a moderate number of studies overall, state-level evidence is limited, and unknown for Australian territories. Evidence from five Australian states reflects the international evidence that increasing retailer density is significantly associated with increasing socioeconomic disadvantage and remoteness, supporting the need for tobacco supply-based policies. Further research is required to understand the impact of retailer density and adult and youth smoking prevalence in Australia.</p>","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":" ","pages":"361-368"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141538685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tobacco ControlPub Date : 2025-05-15DOI: 10.1136/tc-2023-058212
Filip Borkowski, Edoardo Fibbi
{"title":"How can tracking and tracing systems give us a look at the dark side of the tobacco market?","authors":"Filip Borkowski, Edoardo Fibbi","doi":"10.1136/tc-2023-058212","DOIUrl":"10.1136/tc-2023-058212","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>The aim of this work is to present possible applications of the systems of tobacco traceability for guiding local enforcement against illicit trade.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The proposed three-step strategy relies on a robust regression technique and Local Moran's I, a local indicator of spatial association, and aims at identifying retail outlets with significantly low sales compared to normal market conditions, which can indicate illegal sales activities. The ability of the method to produce alerts pointing to areas subject to illicit trade is tested on synthetic data in terms of precision and accuracy in different scenarios. Other metrics are also provided.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Our approach performs well under different metrics and across various levels of illicit trade prevalence, achieving a precision of 94% under the main scenario and method parametrisation.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The proposed strategy provides high-quality leads for investigations into geographical areas disproportionately susceptible to illicit trade, potentially unveiling any form of illegal sales, including those involving products that have never entered the legal supply chain. Therefore, it can be a valuable tool for law enforcement agencies to tackle illegal sales activities. The findings of this study support also the argument in favour of expanding tobacco traceability systems downstream to the full length of the supply chain.</p>","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":" ","pages":"309-314"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12128766/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139543134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}