Impact of Standardised Packaging of Tobacco Products Regulations on cigarette consumption and youth smoking in England: interrupted time-series analysis.

Background: In the UK in May 2016, standardised packaging of tobacco products was implemented, including minimum pack sizes of 20 sticks or 30 g loose tobacco. The change was intended to reduce uptake by increasing upfront costs to young people, but there was concern it may unintentionally increase consumption among people smoking. This study aimed to assess whether the introduction of the policy was associated with changes in (1) mean daily factory-made (FM)/roll-your-own (RYO) cigarettes consumption among people smoking predominantly (a) FM and (b) RYO cigarettes; and (2) current smoking prevalence among 16-24-year-olds.

Methods: Data (N=257 929) were from a representative monthly cross-sectional survey of adults (≥16 years) in England, collected between November 2007 and January 2020. Outcome measures were mean daily (FM/RYO) cigarette consumption among those smoking FM/RYO cigarettes, and prevalence of current smoking among 16-24-year-olds. Time-series analyses were conducted using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous variables (ARIMAX) regression models including a gradual level change starting in June 2017 and ending in May 2018 for cigarette consumption and a step change in June 2016 for prevalence of current smoking.

Results: The ARIMAX model was not able to detect a change in mean daily cigarette consumption-for FM (B_adj=-0.543, 95% CI -1.381 to 0.296) or RYO (B_adj=0.002, 95% CI -0.518 to 0.522) following the implementation of standardised packaging. The unadjusted analysis suggested the implementation of standardised packaging was associated with a small (3%) decrease in smoking prevalence among 16-24-year-olds (B_unadj=-0.031, 95% CI -0.062 to 0.000), but this association was attenuated after adjustment for covariates (B_adj=-0.010, 95% CI -0.039 to 0.019).

Conclusions: The implementation of standardised packaging of tobacco products was not associated with a meaningful change in the mean number of FM or RYO cigarettes consumed by people smoking in England, suggesting the larger pack size has not had an unintended consequence of substantially increasing cigarette consumption. However, there was also little evidence that the policy substantially reduced smoking among 16-24-year-olds.