Structural SafetyPub Date : 2023-11-18DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102413
Zhiqiang Wan
{"title":"Global sensitivity evolution equation of the Fréchet-derivative-based global sensitivity analysis","authors":"Zhiqiang Wan","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102413","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102413","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>For stochastic dynamical systems with multiple uncertain parameters, it is often of interest to detect which parameters are dominant, in which the global sensitivity analysis may be one of the common means. To measure the global sensitivity in both qualitative and quantitative terms, it is of significant importance to adopt a global sensitivity index with sufficient quantification information. The Fréchet-derivative-based global sensitivity index (Fre-GSI) proposed by Chen et al. (2020) is appropriate to this goal. The present paper aims to provide new aspects of the Fre-GSI, including: (1) The numerical solution of the Fre-GSI given by Chen et al. (2020) is investigated in both analytical and numerical aspects; (2) A novel global sensitivity evolution equation is derived from the generalized density evolution equation, thus the Fre-GSI can be estimated by directly solving the global sensitivity evolution equation, rather than repeatedly solving the generalized density evolution equation as suggested in Chen et al. (2020). Numerical examples are studied to illustrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed approach. Some problems to be further studied are also outlined.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"106 ","pages":"Article 102413"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2023-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136696910","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Structural SafetyPub Date : 2023-11-17DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102411
Luis G.L. Costa, André T. Beck
{"title":"A critical review of probabilistic live load models for buildings: Models, surveys, Eurocode statistics and reliability-based calibration","authors":"Luis G.L. Costa, André T. Beck","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102411","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102411","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span><span>The appropriate assignment of gravity live loads is of fundamental importance in establishing a design base for safe and economical structures. This paper presents a critical review of the probabilistic modelling<span> of live loads in buildings, providing a historical overview of the theoretical models found in the literature, as well as the load surveys that provided the empirical evidence for their development. As a general rule, these models divide the live load into sustained and extraordinary components, represented as a Poisson square wave and spike processes, respectively, with the differences lying in the underlying hypotheses and process parameters. A comparison of different models is presented, and it is shown that the model parameters currently in use in background documents on the reliability of the Eurocodes do not agree well with survey data, leading to an overestimation of extreme loads. While the Eurocodes lack clear specification regarding the </span></span>exceedance probability for design loads, this study demonstrates, using a model with modified parameters, that the office design load corresponds to an approximate 27% exceedance probability over 50 years for a reference area of 20 m</span><span><math><msup><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup></math></span><span>. The impact of employing this model on the reliability-based calibration of the Eurocode partial safety factors for loads is also examined, and it is found that the average reliability falls somewhat below the prescribed 50-year target reliability index of 3.8.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"106 ","pages":"Article 102411"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2023-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136696908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Structural SafetyPub Date : 2023-11-17DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102409
Zhuo Hu , Chao Dang , Lei Wang , Michael Beer
{"title":"Parallel Bayesian probabilistic integration for structural reliability analysis with small failure probabilities","authors":"Zhuo Hu , Chao Dang , Lei Wang , Michael Beer","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102409","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102409","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Bayesian active learning methods have emerged for structural reliability analysis<span> and shown more attractive features than existing active learning methods. However, it remains a challenge to actively learn the failure probability by fully exploiting its posterior statistics. In this study, a novel Bayesian active learning method termed ‘Parallel Bayesian Probabilistic Integration’ (PBPI) is proposed for structural reliability analysis, especially when involving small failure probabilities. A pseudo posterior variance of the failure probability is first heuristically proposed for providing a pragmatic uncertainty measure over the failure probability. The variance amplified importance sampling is modified in a sequential manner to allow the estimations of posterior mean and pseudo posterior variance with a large sample population. A learning function derived from the pseudo posterior variance and a stopping criterion associated with the pseudo posterior coefficient of variance of the failure probability are then presented to enable active learning. In addition, a new adaptive multi-point selection method is developed to identify multiple sample points at each iteration without the need to predefine the number, thereby allowing parallel computing. The effectiveness of the proposed PBPI method is verified by investigating four numerical examples, including a turbine blade structural model and a transmission tower structure. Results indicate that the proposed method is capable of estimating small failure probabilities with superior accuracy and efficiency over several other existing active learning reliability methods.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"106 ","pages":"Article 102409"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2023-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136696909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Structural SafetyPub Date : 2023-11-17DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102410
Xiaonong Hu , Genshen Fang , Yaojun Ge
{"title":"Uncertainty propagation of flutter derivatives and structural damping in buffeting fragility analysis of long-span bridges using surrogate models","authors":"Xiaonong Hu , Genshen Fang , Yaojun Ge","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102410","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102410","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Buffeting of long-span bridges caused by the wind turbulence could result in problems of large deformation, fatigue, traffic safety and user comfort. The calculation of buffeting responses is greatly affected by multiple uncertainties, especially the randomness of flutter derivatives and structural damping. In buffeting analysis, these uncertainties are typically propagated using the brute-force Monte Carlo (MC) method, which requires enormous computational resources for a complicated structure involving multiple uncertainties. This study develops an efficient framework based on surrogate models to account for these uncertainties in buffeting responses and the assessment of structural fragility in a mixed climate. Two surrogate models, Kriging and polynomial chaos expansions (PCE), are applied in this framework. Comparison with the direct MC method shows that the Kriging model rather than the PCE model is the proper surrogate model, and the surrogate model contributes significantly to saving computing time from 17 h to 1 min for MC simulations.<!--> <!-->It is also observed that uncertainties propagated from structural parameters to responses will be more notable as the wind speed increase. Buffeting fragility curves of this bridge show that it’s easier for responses in acceleration to achieve and exceed thresholds, indicating that performance related to user comfort might not be satisfied. By introducing the probability distributions of non-typhoon and typhoon winds at the site of the bridge, it is found that considering single climate may underestimate structural risk. The framework based on surrogate models in this paper can be further generalized to additional PBWE frameworks addressing different wind and structural engineering issues.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"106 ","pages":"Article 102410"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2023-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134656620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Structural SafetyPub Date : 2023-11-16DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102401
Mohammad Amin Hariri-Ardebili , Christopher L. Segura Jr. , Siamak Sattar
{"title":"Modeling and material uncertainty quantification of RC structural components","authors":"Mohammad Amin Hariri-Ardebili , Christopher L. Segura Jr. , Siamak Sattar","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102401","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102401","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>It is well established that various sources of uncertainties play a critical role in the safety assessment of engineering structures. Some widely used frameworks, such as performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE), explicitly consider the ground motion record-to-record randomness, while the material and modeling uncertainty remain to be primarily based on judgments or limited analysis. This paper presents the results of a comprehensive uncertainty quantification<span> and sensitivity analysis of a reinforced concrete structural component. First, different modeling strategies are adopted to develop several parent models. Next, various sources of uncertainty are propagated through the parent models to generate thousands of children models. The children models are further combined with material uncertainty to produce grandchildren models, and nonlinear transient simulations are conducted using an innovative artificial acceleration at different seismic intensity levels. The results are post-processed using a range of probabilistic, statistical, and machine learning methods. The study finds that the modeling strategy and its associated variability can cause significant bias and dispersion in the drift response, while material uncertainty has a relatively minor effect. The study quantifies the importance of modeling uncertainty, which is often overlooked in engineering practice.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"106 ","pages":"Article 102401"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2023-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134656621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Structural SafetyPub Date : 2023-11-16DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102404
Jungho Kim , Ziqi Wang , Junho Song
{"title":"Adaptive active subspace-based metamodeling for high-dimensional reliability analysis","authors":"Jungho Kim , Ziqi Wang , Junho Song","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102404","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102404","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>To address the challenges of reliability analysis in high-dimensional probability spaces, this paper proposes a new metamodeling method that couples active subspace, heteroscedastic Gaussian process, and active learning. The active subspace is leveraged to identify low-dimensional salient features<span> of a high-dimensional computational model. A surrogate computational model is built in the low-dimensional feature space by a heteroscedastic Gaussian process. Active learning adaptively guides the surrogate model training toward the critical region that significantly contributes to the failure probability. A critical trait of the proposed method is that the three main ingredients–active subspace, heteroscedastic Gaussian process, and active learning–are coupled to adaptively optimize the feature space mapping in conjunction with the surrogate modeling. This coupling empowers the proposed method to accurately solve nontrivial high-dimensional reliability problems via low-dimensional surrogate modeling. Finally, numerical examples of a high-dimensional </span></span>nonlinear function<span> and structural engineering applications are investigated to verify the performance of the proposed method.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"106 ","pages":"Article 102404"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2023-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134656624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Structural SafetyPub Date : 2023-11-15DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102396
Max Ehre, Iason Papaioannou, Daniel Straub
{"title":"Variance-based reliability sensitivity with dependent inputs using failure samples","authors":"Max Ehre, Iason Papaioannou, Daniel Straub","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102396","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102396","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Reliability sensitivity analysis is concerned with measuring the influence of a system’s uncertain input parameters on its probability of failure. Statistically dependent inputs present a challenge in both computing and interpreting these sensitivity indices; such dependencies require discerning between variable interactions produced by the probabilistic model describing the system inputs and the computational model describing the system itself. To accomplish such a separation of effects in the context of reliability sensitivity analysis we extend on an idea originally proposed by Mara and Tarantola (2012) for model outputs unrelated to rare events. We compute the independent (influence via computational model) and full (influence via both computational and probabilistic model) contributions of all inputs to the variance of the indicator function of the rare event. We compute this full set of variance-based sensitivity indices of the rare event indicator using a single set of failure samples. This is possible by considering <span><math><mi>d</mi></math></span> different hierarchically structured isoprobabilistic transformations of this set of failure samples from the original <span><math><mi>d</mi></math></span>-dimensional space of dependent inputs to standard-normal space. The approach facilitates computing the full set of variance-based reliability sensitivity indices with a single set of failure samples obtained as the byproduct of a single run of a sample-based rare event estimation method. That is, no additional evaluations of the computational model are required. We demonstrate the approach on a test function and two engineering problems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"106 ","pages":"Article 102396"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2023-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134656623","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Structural SafetyPub Date : 2023-11-15DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102405
Ze Yuan, Quanwang Li, Kefei Li
{"title":"Measurement plan targeting the accuracy of calibrated chloride ingress model for concrete structures in marine environment","authors":"Ze Yuan, Quanwang Li, Kefei Li","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102405","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102405","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Surface chloride concentration (<em>C</em><sub>S</sub>) and chloride diffusion coefficient (<em>D</em><sub>Cl</sub>) are key parameters for durability assessment of concrete structures in marine environment; they are time-varying and highly dependent on the exposure condition. To reasonably model their behaviors at a specific location, durability measurement data are often needed to calibrate the apparent chloride ingress model based on Fick’s second law. In view of the significant variability of measurements and the bias of chloride ingress model, it remains unaddressed how to formulate a measurement plan to make the calibrated model achieve the required accuracy. This paper first establishes the probabilistic time-dependent models of <em>C</em><sub>S</sub> and <em>D</em><sub>Cl</sub> with both sample variance and model bias considered, and then introduces the Bayesian method to update the two models using measurement data. By assuming realistic models of <em>C</em><sub>S</sub> and <em>D</em><sub>Cl</sub> and comparing them with updated ones, the effectiveness of Bayesian updating method is demonstrated, and the key factors affecting the updated model accuracy are discussed, including prior estimate of parameters, model bias and measuring times. On this basis, a determination method of measurement plan targeting the calibrated model accuracy is proposed, which works for both Bayesian updating and linear fitting for model calibration. And finally numerical examples are presented to show the validity of the proposed method. The sample size obtained by the proposed method is exact for linear fitting and slightly more than required for Bayesian updating.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"106 ","pages":"Article 102405"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2023-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134656622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Structural SafetyPub Date : 2023-11-08DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102406
Wouter Jan Klerk , Vera van Bergeijk , Wim Kanning , Rogier Wolfert , Matthijs Kok
{"title":"Risk-based maintenance and inspection of riverine flood defence systems","authors":"Wouter Jan Klerk , Vera van Bergeijk , Wim Kanning , Rogier Wolfert , Matthijs Kok","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102406","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102406","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The condition of flood defence revetments is influenced by many different degradation processes such as animal burrowing, rutting and growth of weeds. Many of these processes are shock-based rather than progressive continuous. As shocks can cause a drop in performance, this means that the condition of a revetment can suddenly decrease, meaning that revetments can have significant initial damage at the beginning of a storm. Combined with the limited detection probability of common visual inspections of flood defences, this can have a significant influence on the reliability of flood defence systems, something typically not considered in reliability analysis. In this paper we study the reliability of a flood defence system subject to shock-based degradation. Various maintenance concepts are compared for a case study of a riverine flood defence of 20 kilometres length. This demonstrates that the current maintenance concept is insufficient to satisfy the reliability requirements for failure of the revetment. Overall, the joint influence of degradation and the existing maintenance concept leads to a 20 times higher failure probability estimate compared to a typical assessment without these aspects. Next, we demonstrate that both additional inspections, and targeted interventions to reduce the impact of for instance animal burrowing, can significantly reduce total cost and improve robustness of the considered flood defence system.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"106 ","pages":"Article 102406"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2023-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167473023000930/pdfft?md5=d0c5dd81512a55afea40d13784a07acf&pid=1-s2.0-S0167473023000930-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91775244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Towards system reliability targeted design for flange-angle partially restrained steel moment connections","authors":"Aritra Chatterjee, Trisha Chakravorty, Baidurya Bhattacharya","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102400","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102400","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Partially or fully restrained steel moment connections are essential constituents of lateral force resisting moment frames. The constituents of the moment connection system – bolts, welds, plates and angles – are sized using their individual force demands by a limit state element-based load and resistance factor design procedure. The system reliability of the connection as a whole, which must be commensurate with reliabilities of adjoining frame components, has not been adequately investigated in the literature. This paper presents a methodology to determine the system reliability of commonly used steel moment connections that have been designed according to current element based procedures. A general expression is derived for a system factor that modifies element resistance factors to meet a specified system reliability target, as a function of the element’s relative importance within the system, and associated uncertainties. Uncertainties in element capacities (including their mutual dependence) and system demands are considered. The approach can be used to rationalize element design equations to achieve system reliability targets for the connection system. A detailed numerical example and a set of parametric studies on a partially restrained moment connection with angle supports at top and bottom beam flanges are presented. The results suggest the existence of beneficial system effects in current AISC provisions for the design of partially restrained moment connections.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"106 ","pages":"Article 102400"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2023-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92045889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}