Structural Safety最新文献_第8页

An appraisal of the LQI as an approach to setting target reliabilities in ISO 2394:2015 将 LQI 作为 ISO 2394:2015 中设定目标可靠性的一种方法的评估

IF 5.8 1区工程技术

Structural Safety Pub Date : 2024-05-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102482

Baidurya Bhattacharya

{"title":"An appraisal of the LQI as an approach to setting target reliabilities in ISO 2394:2015","authors":"Baidurya Bhattacharya","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102482","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102482","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The idea of coupling economics and safety into one optimization exercise, and hence deriving target reliabilities explicitly from socio-economic consequences of limit state violation, appeared in the JCSS Probabilistic Model Code around the turn of the century; the effort culminated in the form of a Life Quality Index (LQI)-based marginal lifesaving costs (MLSC) methodology in ISO 2394:2015 for determining maximum acceptable failure probabilities, <em>p<sub>T</sub></em>, in life safety limit states for civil engineering structures across all nations. Unfortunately, while the methodology does yield adequate levels of safety when applied to structures in the developed countries, the recommended values of <em>p<sub>T</sub></em> turn out to be one to two orders of magnitude higher, and unacceptable to every known standard in the world including its own earlier edition (ISO 2394:1998) when applied to structures in the developing world (exemplified by India) with identical functions and expected fatalities. This arises from two shortcomings: (1) an MLSC approach is generally unable to provide an independent constraint on monetary optimization, and (2) the LQI-based measure of MLSC constraint is strongly dependent on a country’s per capita GDP (<em>g</em>) and the resultant <em>p<sub>T</sub></em> is effectively governed by the reciprocal of <em>g</em>. This paper recommends continuing with the absolute − not marginal − consequences of violating life safety limit states, and setting constraints on monetary optimization that are consistent with fatality risks from engineering activities more universally accepted to be safe.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"109 ","pages":"Article 102482"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141032630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

On information value and decision analyses 关于信息价值和决策分析

IF 5.7 1区工程技术

Structural Safety Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102481

Sebastian Thöns , Colin Caprani , Michael Havbro Faber , Dan M. Frangopol , Paolo Gardoni , Pier Francesco Giordano , Daniel Honfi , Leandro Iannacone , Mohammad Shihabuddin Khan , Jochen Köhler , Sunyong Kim , Nico de Koker , Maria Pina Limongelli , Simona Miraglia , Jannie Sønderkær Nielsen , Mahesh Pandey , Celeste Viljoen

{"title":"On information value and decision analyses","authors":"Sebastian Thöns , Colin Caprani , Michael Havbro Faber , Dan M. Frangopol , Paolo Gardoni , Pier Francesco Giordano , Daniel Honfi , Leandro Iannacone , Mohammad Shihabuddin Khan , Jochen Köhler , Sunyong Kim , Nico de Koker , Maria Pina Limongelli , Simona Miraglia , Jannie Sønderkær Nielsen , Mahesh Pandey , Celeste Viljoen","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102481","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102481","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper addresses value of information, structural health information, and decision analyses in built environment engineering. Decision analyses are used for the joint optimization of information collection and the identification of physical measures for the management and enhancement of the expected utility of built environment systems. To these ends, this paper contains (1) principal descriptions of decision scenarios and the model basis in conjunction with the objective functions, embedded in (a) a summary of the historical background and (b) the origins of the methods of decision and value of information analyses, (2) an overview of methods for decision analyses highlighting solution strategies to handle comprehensiveness and computational challenges, (3) principal application areas and case studies, and (4) insights into recent advances. The main insights and an outreach to potential future research perspectives are summarised at the end of this paper.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 102481"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2024-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141047478","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Accelerated system-reliability-based disaster resilience analysis for structural systems 基于系统可靠性的结构系统抗灾能力加速分析

IF 5.8 1区工程技术

Structural Safety Pub Date : 2024-05-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102479

Taeyong Kim , Sang-ri Yi

{"title":"Accelerated system-reliability-based disaster resilience analysis for structural systems","authors":"Taeyong Kim , Sang-ri Yi","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102479","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102479","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Resilience has emerged as a crucial concept for evaluating structural performance under disasters because of its ability to extend beyond traditional risk assessments, accounting for a system’s ability to minimize disruptions and maintain functionality during recovery. To facilitate the holistic understanding of resilience performance in structural systems, a system-reliability-based disaster resilience analysis framework was developed. The framework describes resilience using three criteria: reliability (β), redundancy (π), and recoverability (γ), and the system’s internal resilience is evaluated by inspecting the characteristics of reliability and redundancy for different possible progressive failure modes. However, the practical application of this framework has been limited to complex structures with numerous sub-components, as it becomes intractable to evaluate the performances for all possible initial disruption scenarios. To bridge the gap between the theory and practical use, especially for evaluating reliability and redundancy, this study centers on the idea that the computational burden can be substantially alleviated by focusing on initial disruption scenarios that are practically significant. To achieve this research goal, we propose three methods to efficiently eliminate insignificant scenarios: the sequential search method, the <em>n</em>-ball sampling method, and the surrogate model-based adaptive sampling algorithm. Three numerical examples, including buildings and a bridge, are introduced to prove the applicability and efficiency of the proposed approaches. The findings of this study are expected to offer practical solutions to the challenges of assessing resilience performance in complex structural systems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"109 ","pages":"Article 102479"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141067752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Reliability-based calibration of companion load combination factors by considering concurrent wind and ice loading for structural design 通过考虑结构设计中同时存在的风荷载和冰荷载，以可靠性为基础校准伴生荷载组合系数

IF 5.8 1区工程技术

Structural Safety Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102478

H.P. Hong, Y.X. Liu, W.X. Zhou

{"title":"Reliability-based calibration of companion load combination factors by considering concurrent wind and ice loading for structural design","authors":"H.P. Hong, Y.X. Liu, W.X. Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102478","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102478","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Transmission towers and overhead transmission lines are designed and constructed by considering the combined ice load and wind-on-ice load if the ice accretion hazard is not negligible. The structural design codes provide clauses with a range of values to evaluate such a combined load. However, it is unclear which of the values suggested in the codes one should use for specified regions, and the reliability-based calibration of such a combination is unavailable. To fill this gap, in the present study, we carried out the reliability-based calibration of the companion load combination factors by using statistics of the ice accretion thickness and concurrent wind speed available from more than 250 meteorological stations in Canada. For the calibration, a nonlinear combination problem needs to be considered since the wind-on-ice load depends on the accreted ice thickness, making this calibration task differ from those commonly reported in the literature, which is focused on the linear load combination problem. A parametric investigation was also carried out to assess the effect of using different return periods and the correlation between ice accretion and concurrent wind speed on the companion load combination factors. The calibration results were used to recommend the load combination format, the companion load combination factors, and the ratio of the square equivalent concurrent wind speed to the return period value of the annual maximum wind speed, which is commonly implemented in design codes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"109 ","pages":"Article 102478"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140901666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An environment-driven basin scale tropical cyclone model 环境驱动的海盆尺度热带气旋模型

IF 5.8 1区工程技术

Structural Safety Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102480

Feng Hu , Qiusheng Li , Xu Hong

{"title":"An environment-driven basin scale tropical cyclone model","authors":"Feng Hu , Qiusheng Li , Xu Hong","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102480","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102480","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper presents an environment-driven tropical cyclone (TC) model for the Western North Pacific basin, which comprises a revised Poisson regression genesis model, a tailored beta-advection track model, and a fast intensity model. The TC model reproduces the temporal and spatial distributions of genesis events, the motion pattern of tracks, as well as the intensity evolutions along tracks. Risk analyses for Hong Kong and along the southeast coastline of mainland China demonstrate that this model can simulate extreme TC events with high fidelity. And the Gaussian mixture model outperforms the Frank Copula in approximating the joint distributions of the annual maximum wind speeds and the corresponding wind directions. This model is driven by a set of environmental variables including relative vorticity, relative humidity, sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, potential intensity, sub mixed layer depth stratification, mixture layer depth and so on. This enables the model to not only reproduce historical records, but also make predictions for future TC behaviors under climate change with combination of global climate models. Besides, the computational efficiency of the TC model is comparable to traditional purely statistical models. The proposed model can also be coupled with other natural hazard models to conduct multi-hazard analysis.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"109 ","pages":"Article 102480"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140824808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

LRFD methodology for river embankments against non-stationary flooding under climate change 气候变化下河堤抗非稳态洪水的 LRFD 方法

IF 5.8 1区工程技术

Structural Safety Pub Date : 2024-04-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102477

Abdul Kadir Alhamid , Mitsuyoshi Akiyama , Zhengying He , Putri Syahidah Firdaus , Dan M. Frangopol

{"title":"LRFD methodology for river embankments against non-stationary flooding under climate change","authors":"Abdul Kadir Alhamid , Mitsuyoshi Akiyama , Zhengying He , Putri Syahidah Firdaus , Dan M. Frangopol","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102477","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102477","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Riverine floods have become increasingly prevalent on a global scale, posing significant risks to infrastructure systems and communities. The escalating impacts of climate change associated with the increase in rainfall intensities and frequencies necessitate the improvement of the existing design methodologies to account for the non-stationary climate change effects to ensure that the reliability is above the target level and mitigate future flood disasters. This paper presents a novel LRFD approach for river embankments subjected to extreme rainfall under non-stationary climate change effects. This approach introduces an additional partial factor to account for the effects of climate change. Precipitation and temperature projections are collected from various climate models considering several cases of emission scenarios. An integrated hydrological and hydraulic modeling of the analyzed river is carried out to estimate the associated time-variant river discharge and water surface elevation. The non-stationary extreme value associated with the maximum flood level is leveraged using the peak-over-threshold approach. The embankment reliability and the corresponding most probable points are evaluated using limit states associated with overtopping and slope failures. Based on the estimated and target reliability indexes, the design point for each random variable is assessed considering the cases with and without climate change effects. Finally, the partial factors associated with climate change effects are determined. As an illustrative example, the proposed framework is applied to the Ashida River in Fukuyama city of Japan.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"109 ","pages":"Article 102477"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167473024000481/pdfft?md5=b07bc6b4b752f32472f5e9ae685c59b4&pid=1-s2.0-S0167473024000481-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140822711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global sensitivity analysis of the maximum live load and its applications 最大活载荷的全局敏感性分析及其应用

IF 5.8 1区工程技术

Structural Safety Pub Date : 2024-04-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102476

Chi Xu , Jun Chen , Jie Li

{"title":"Global sensitivity analysis of the maximum live load and its applications","authors":"Chi Xu , Jun Chen , Jie Li","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102476","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102476","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The design live loads are determined by the probability distribution of the maximum live load, which is influenced by the amplitudes and time intervals of various sustained and extraordinary loads. If the relative impact of different input variables on the maximum can be clarified, more targeted load surveys and modeling can be achieved. However, there is currently no global sensitivity analysis that simultaneously considers all input variables. In this study, the probability density function of the maximum live load is determined using the load coincidence principle and probability density evolution method. The relative entropy is employed as a measure for conducting a global sensitivity analysis across five common building occupancy types. The results indicate a significant imbalance in the impact of different input variables. The load amplitudes have a much greater effect than the time intervals. Among various load amplitudes, those related to the extraordinary loads often have the most significant impact. Regarding the time intervals, the occurrence intervals corresponding to the extraordinary loads caused by furniture stacking and normal crowding consistently have the least influence. For the time intervals with minimal impact, it is suggested to treat them as deterministic values in the live load modeling. This treatment has a negligible impact (not exceeding 10%) on the mean and upper fractile of the maximum, which are generally used for design in load codes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"109 ","pages":"Article 102476"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140843739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Reliability analysis of complex systems using subset simulations with Hamiltonian Neural Networks 利用汉密尔顿神经网络子集模拟进行复杂系统可靠性分析

IF 5.8 1区工程技术

Structural Safety Pub Date : 2024-04-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102475

Denny Thaler , Somayajulu L.N. Dhulipala , Franz Bamer , Bernd Markert , Michael D. Shields

{"title":"Reliability analysis of complex systems using subset simulations with Hamiltonian Neural Networks","authors":"Denny Thaler , Somayajulu L.N. Dhulipala , Franz Bamer , Bernd Markert , Michael D. Shields","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102475","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102475","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We present a new Subset Simulation approach using Hamiltonian neural network-based Monte Carlo sampling for reliability analysis. The proposed strategy combines the superior sampling of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method with computationally efficient gradient evaluations using Hamiltonian neural networks. This combination is especially advantageous because the neural network architecture conserves the Hamiltonian, which defines the acceptance criteria of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampler. Hence, this strategy achieves high acceptance rates at low computational cost. Our approach estimates small failure probabilities using Subset Simulations. However, in low-probability sample regions, the gradient evaluation is particularly challenging. The remarkable accuracy of the proposed strategy is demonstrated on different reliability problems, and its efficiency is compared to the traditional Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method. We note that this approach can reach its limitations for gradient estimations in low-probability regions of complex and high-dimensional distributions. Thus, we propose techniques to improve gradient prediction in these particular situations and enable accurate estimations of the probability of failure. The highlight of this study is the reliability analysis of a system whose parameter distributions must be inferred with Bayesian inference problems. In such a case, the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method requires a full model evaluation for each gradient evaluation and, therefore, comes at a very high cost. However, using Hamiltonian neural networks in this framework replaces the expensive model evaluation, resulting in tremendous improvements in computational efficiency.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"109 ","pages":"Article 102475"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167473024000468/pdfft?md5=25924e8f11cfb879db99320b7ba3054f&pid=1-s2.0-S0167473024000468-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140649316","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Development of methods of structural reliability 开发结构可靠性方法

IF 5.7 1区工程技术

Structural Safety Pub Date : 2024-04-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102474

Bruce Ellingwood , Marc Maes , F. Michael Bartlett , Andre T. Beck , Colin Caprani , Armen Der Kiureghian , Leonardo Dueñas-Osorio , Neryvaldo Galvão , Robert Gilbert , Jie Li , Jose Matos , Yasuhiro Mori , Iason Papaioannou , Roger Parades , Daniel Straub , Bruno Sudret

{"title":"Development of methods of structural reliability","authors":"Bruce Ellingwood , Marc Maes , F. Michael Bartlett , Andre T. Beck , Colin Caprani , Armen Der Kiureghian , Leonardo Dueñas-Osorio , Neryvaldo Galvão , Robert Gilbert , Jie Li , Jose Matos , Yasuhiro Mori , Iason Papaioannou , Roger Parades , Daniel Straub , Bruno Sudret","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102474","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102474","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The growth of structural reliability theory and applications, along with a recognition of its role in guiding the structural engineering profession in addressing some of the most important issues in design of the built environment, represents one of the key engineering achievements during the past five decades. Structural reliability provides a unifying framework for managing uncertainties affecting performance of structures and a quantitative link between the practice of structural engineering and its social consequences. Such links perhaps are most obvious in probability-based codified design and performance evaluation but there are numerous other applications, which are summarized in this special issue. As the field has matured, researchers in reliability have worked with structural engineers to elevate both the practice of structural engineering and the quality of research to levels that otherwise would not have been possible. The Joint Committee on Structural Safety has played a central role in this historic development and it will inspire future opportunities for the reliability community to build upon past successes to improve structural engineering and construction practices. This paper surveys the key theoretical developments and milestones that enable these opportunities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 102474"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2024-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140788037","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Interpretation of probability in structural safety – A philosophical conundrum 结构安全中的概率解释--一个哲学难题

IF 5.7 1区工程技术

Structural Safety Pub Date : 2024-04-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102473

Ton Vrouwenvelder , André Beck , Dirk Proske , Michael Faber , Jochen Köhler , Matthias Schubert , Daniel Straub , Max Teichgräber

{"title":"Interpretation of probability in structural safety – A philosophical conundrum","authors":"Ton Vrouwenvelder , André Beck , Dirk Proske , Michael Faber , Jochen Köhler , Matthias Schubert , Daniel Straub , Max Teichgräber","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102473","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102473","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The term probability is essential in the domain of structural safety and yet its interpretation is, even after more than 50 years of application, still a subject of discussion. For instance, the probability of failure of structures belonging to the same cohort for a specific period of time, is often understood in a pure frequentist way as an observable average number of failure events for that period and portfolio. By contrast, the Bayesian interpretation considers probability as a degree of belief and a reflection of the state of information to the best belief or knowledge of the decision maker. In the field of structural reliability, depending on the type of decision problem, probabilities are often referred to as nominal (or notional) measures of uncertainty to emphasize that these values are conditional on a model and available observations. Probabilistic methods then serve primarily to undertake the book-keeping required to assign probabilities to different possible outcomes or decisions in consistency with models, available observations and other relevant information. This paper discusses the background of these interpretations and the degree to which correspondence between reliability calculations and observations of failures can be expected and/or achieved. Recommendations corresponding to the JCSS line of thinking will be summarized in <span><span>Section 8</span></span>.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 102473"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2024-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140763725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0