Structural Safety最新文献

{"title":"Bivariate cubic normal distribution for non-Gaussian problems","authors":"Xiang-Wei Li,&nbsp;Xuan-Yi Zhang,&nbsp;Yan-Gang Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102541","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102541","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Probabilistic models play critical role in various engineering fields. Numerous critical issues exist in probabilistic modeling, especially for non-Gaussian correlated random variables. Traditional parameter-based bivariate distribution models are typically developed for specific types of random variables, which limits their flexibility and applicability. In this study, a flexible bivariate distribution model is proposed, in which the joint cumulative distribution function (JCDF) is derived by expressing the probability as the summation of three basic probabilities corresponding to simple functions. These probabilities are computed using a univariate cubic normal distribution, and thus the proposed model is named as bivariate cubic normal (BCN) distribution. The proposed BCN distribution has been applied in modeling several common bivariate distributions and actual engineering datasets. Results show that the BCN distribution accurately fits the JCDFs of both theoretical distributions and practical datasets, offering significant improvement over existing models. Furthermore, the proposed BCN distribution is utilized in seismic reliability assessment and the calculation of the mean recurrence interval and hazard curve of hurricane wind speed and storm size. Results demonstrate that the BCN distribution excels in modeling and matching capabilities, proving its accuracy and effectiveness in civil engineering applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 102541"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142533296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The JCSS probabilistic model Code, future developments","authors":"R.D.J.M. Steenbergen ,&nbsp;A.C.W.M. Vrouwenvelder","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102540","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102540","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To assess and verify the reliability of structures, reliability based building codes allow for the application of full-probabilistic methods and semi-probabilistic methods (i.e. the partial factor method). In principle, both methods should be equivalent and lead to (approximately) the same reliability level. Therefore partial factors should be as much as possible determined based on a probabilistic background and calibration exercises. On the other hand, as the probabilistic design method may be considered as more rational and consistent than the partial factor design, there is a tendency to use probabilistic methods directly in the assessment of special of important new structures and also in the assessment of existing structures. In both the calibration exercise and in the full probabilistic assessment of structures, we face the problem that many assumptions have to be made. In particular in regard to the statistical modelling of random variables and in regard to accepted approximative methods of calculation. This often brings the engineer to a challenging position. In the past years the JCSS probabilistic model code (PMC) has served as an often-consulted operational code for this purpose. In the present paper, the JCSS PMC and its future developments are presented and discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 102540"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2024-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143138981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Yet another Bayesian active learning reliability analysis method","authors":"Chao Dang ,&nbsp;Tong Zhou ,&nbsp;Marcos A. Valdebenito ,&nbsp;Matthias G.R. Faes","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102539","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102539","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The well-established Bayesian failure probability inference (BFPI) framework offers a solid foundation for developing new Bayesian active learning reliability analysis methods. However, there remains an open question regarding how to effectively leverage the posterior statistics of the failure probability to design the two key components for Bayesian active learning: the stopping criterion and learning function. In this study, we present another innovative Bayesian active learning reliability analysis method, called ‘Weakly Bayesian Active Learning Quadrature’ (WBALQ), which builds upon the BFPI framework to evaluate extremely small failure probabilities. Instead of relying on the posterior variance, we propose a more computationally feasible measure of the epistemic uncertainty in the failure probability by examining its posterior first absolute central moment. Based on this measure and the posterior mean of the failure probability, a new stopping criterion is devised. A recently developed numerical integrator is then employed to approximate the two analytically intractable terms inherent in the stopping criterion. Furthermore, a new learning function is proposed, which is partly derived from the epistemic uncertainty measure. The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by five numerical examples. It is found that our method is able to assess extremely small failure probabilities with satisfactory accuracy and efficiency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 102539"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142322476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improved Bayesian model updating of geomaterial parameters for slope reliability assessment considering spatial variability","authors":"Shui-Hua Jiang ,&nbsp;Hong-Peng Hu ,&nbsp;Ze Zhou Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102536","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102536","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In engineering practice, Bayesian model updating using field data is often conducted to reduce the substantial inherent epistemic uncertainties in geomaterial properties resulting from complex geological processes. The Bayesian Updating with Subset simulation (BUS) method is commonly employed for this purpose. However, the wealth of field data available for engineers to interpret can lead to challenges associated with the “curse of dimensionality”. Specifically, the value of the likelihood function in the BUS method can become extremely small as the volume of field data increases, potentially falling below the accuracy threshold of computer floating-point operations. This undermines both the computational efficiency and accuracy of Bayesian model updating. To effectively address this technical challenge, this paper proposes an improved BUS method developed based on parallel system reliability analysis. Leveraging the Cholesky decomposition-based midpoint method, the total failure domain in the original BUS method, which involves a low acceptance rate, is subdivided into several sub-failure domains with a high acceptance rate. Facilitated with an improved Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, the improved BUS method enables the consideration of a large volume of field data and spatial variability of geomaterial properties in the probabilistic back analysis. The results of an illustrative soil slope, involving spatially variable undrained shear strength, demonstrate that the improved BUS method is effective in simultaneously incorporating a substantial volume of field measurements and observations in the model updating process. Through a comparison with the original BUS method, the improved BUS method is shown to be useful for Bayesian model updating of high-dimensional spatially variable geomaterial properties and slope reliability assessment.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 102536"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167473024001073/pdfft?md5=03862f608e5112a4db4d8519e06c7cf1&pid=1-s2.0-S0167473024001073-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142271458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Data-enhanced design charts for efficient reliability-based design of geotechnical systems","authors":"M.K. Lo,&nbsp;Y.F. Leung,&nbsp;M.X. Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102527","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102527","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper proposes a new design chart approach for reliability assessment, which enables clear visualization of the representative soil shear strength parameters under various reliability levels and effective stress levels. Utilizing the design charts, reliability assessment or reliability-based design can be performed with significantly reduced numbers of evaluations of the geotechnical system response. The design charts are established solely based on the probability distributions of soil parameters, and are applicable to a variety of geotechnical problems involving the same soil type. For practical illustration of the proposed approach, design charts are produced from the shear strength databases of saprolitic soils and colluvial soils in Hong Kong, and then applied to the reliability-based design of a slope with soil nail reinforcements. The ensuing design solutions require much fewer soil nails compared to the conventional design practice, while also achieving a better system reliability. The same charts are then applied to the reliability-based design of a retaining wall, where a series of design options are identified with equivalent reliability index against overturning failure and pullout failure. Through the proposed approach, the use of design charts promotes efficient reliability-based design of geotechnical systems with rational incorporation of reliability concepts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 102527"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142419735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Recent developments in mechanical and uncertainty modelling of concrete","authors":"Jianbing Chen ,&nbsp;Xiaodan Ren ,&nbsp;De-Cheng Feng ,&nbsp;Jochen Kohler ,&nbsp;John Dalsgaard Sørensen ,&nbsp;Jian-Ying Wu ,&nbsp;Jia-Liang Le ,&nbsp;Robby Caspeele","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102526","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102526","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Concrete is one of the most widely used materials in civil and infrastructure engineering in the world, just following water. Therefore, the serviceability and safety of concrete structures are of paramount importance. The modeling of mechanical properties of concrete and the uncertainty quantification are the two cornerstones for reliability evaluation and rational design decision of concrete structures. In the past 50 years, extensive endeavors have been devoted to these two aspects and great progresses have been made. In the present paper, investigations of and advances in mechanical and probabilistic modeling of concrete are reviewed, including the constitutive law of concrete material, the uncertainty quantification of parameters and constitutive laws of concrete, the nonlinear analysis of concrete structures, and the modeling of concrete properties in the design codes including the JCSS Probabilistic Model Code, fib Model Code, Chinese standard and Eurocodes. In particular, the transitions from uni-axial to multi-axial constitutive law, from probability distribution of major parameters and empirical relationship between parameters to full probabilistic quantification of the constitutive law of concrete, and from structural nonlinear analysis based on component internal force vs. deformation restoring force relationship to the framework based on continuum mechanics involving constitutive law are stressed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 102526"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143138980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"System reliability analysis of building clusters considering inter-structural seismic demand correlation","authors":"Mengjie Xiang ,&nbsp;Mengze Lyu ,&nbsp;Jiaxu Shen ,&nbsp;Zekun Xu ,&nbsp;Jun Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102528","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102528","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The seismic engineering demand parameters (EDPs) of building clusters exhibit significant spatial correlations and need full consideration in regional risk and reliability assessments. This study presents an efficient scheme to determine the joint distribution of multi-structure EDPs, which captures all EDP correlations and enables direct calculation of system reliability for building clusters. This scheme generates spatially correlated random ground motion fields through ground motion cross power spectrum density (PSD) models with stochastic harmonic function simulations. Subsequently, the decoupled multi-probability density evolution method (M−PDEM) is integrated to conduct seismic analysis of building clusters under random ground motion fields to determine their EDP joint distribution. An example of three linear single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) models shows that the proposed scheme requires only hundreds of analyses to achieve the same accuracy as 10⁵ Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) analyses, while also capturing the nonlinear correlations among EDPs. Finally, an engineering application of three reinforced concrete (RC) frame shear-wall buildings under a rare earthquake scenario is investigated, and the joint collapse probability by the scheme is compared with that by commonly-adopted assumptions of mutual independence and linear correlation. The results reveal that relative errors by the two assumptions can reach up to 39 % and 22 %, respectively.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 102528"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142172563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Life-cycle seismic resilience prediction of sea-crossing bridge piers exposed to chloride-induced corrosion in marine environments","authors":"Hongyuan Guo ,&nbsp;Ruiwei Feng ,&nbsp;You Dong ,&nbsp;Paolo Gardoni","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102523","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102523","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The life-cycle seismic resilience assessment of sea-crossing highway bridges plays a crucial role in guiding decisions for their long-term operation, maintenance, and rehabilitation. Due to the inherently stochastic nature of marine environments, evaluating the resilience of bridges while considering all possible environmental scenarios throughout their service life necessitates substantial computational efforts and presents practical challenges. Thus, this study develops a three-stage framework for predicting the life-cycle seismic resilience of sea-crossing highway bridges. Stochastic models for marine environmental conditions and bridge durability are developed and validated using experimental measurement data. A modified Good Lattice Point-Partially Stratified Sampling (GLP-PSS) method is employed to generate a uniform and limited number of samples. A typical prestressed concrete sea-crossing highway bridge is selected as the benchmark bridge, and parameterized numerical models are established using 460 representative environmental parameter samples on the OpenSees platform. Leveraging the environmental model and material properties, the durability of the bridge is predicted over its service life. Nonlinear time history analyses are carried out for each bridge model using 120 real ground motion records, which allow the identification of variations in seismic demands, capacities, and system fragilities at different time intervals. Subsequently, the life-cycle seismic resilience of the bridge is predicted utilizing surrogate models based on the response surface method (RSM) and artificial neural networks (ANN), respectively. Finally, the time-dependent probabilistic characteristics of seismic resilience are thoroughly discussed. Results indicate that ANN demonstrates a higher degree of generalization capability in predicting the life-cycle seismic resilience. Focusing solely on changes in mean resilience over the service time may lead to an underestimation of bridge resilience, as it may ignore the tails of its distribution, potentially resulting in an overestimation of bridge resilience. Furthermore, global warming may expedite the decline in resilience.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"111 ","pages":"Article 102523"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142099565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Propagation of hybrid uncertainty by synthesizing B-spline chaos and augmented change of probability measure","authors":"Zhiqiang Wan ,&nbsp;Weifeng Tao ,&nbsp;Xiuli Wang ,&nbsp;Yuan Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102524","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102524","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Acquiring engineering data is frequently expensive, resulting in sparse data that may lead to a lack of knowledge for design and analysis. Thus, it is not always feasible to precisely determine the probability density functions (PDFs) of uncertain model parameters. Under such circumstances that involve simultaneous aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, repeated uncertainty propagation (UP) analysis is generally required. In this paper, a novel approach for hybrid UP is proposed by integrating B-spline chaos and augmented change of probability measure (aCOM) for meeting different goals. The B-spline chaos is adopted to represent the complicated computational model as a function of an arbitrary input random variable, while the aCOM is employed to reconstruct the PDF of the model output when the input PDF is changed due to epistemic uncertainty. In the case of small epistemic uncertainty, hybrid UP can be achieved directly by changing the assigned probabilities of existing sample results. While in the case of large epistemic uncertainty, additional samples from an augmenting PDF are generated. The proposed method is compatible with both cases. The numerical algorithm of the proposed method is presented and illustrated by four benchmark problems. Further, the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method are substantiated by four numerical examples compared with analytical solutions or Monte Carlo simulations. An attempt to enhance the proposed method with the aid of active subspace methods to handle high-dimensional problems is also discussed in this work. The limitations and potential improvements of the proposed approach are outlined as well.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"111 ","pages":"Article 102524"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142151038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spectral incremental dynamic methodology for nonlinear structural systems endowed with fractional derivative elements subjected to fully non-stationary stochastic excitation","authors":"Peihua Ni ,&nbsp;Ioannis P. Mitseas ,&nbsp;Vasileios C. Fragkoulis ,&nbsp;Michael Beer","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102525","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102525","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A novel spectral incremental dynamic analysis methodology for analysing structural response in nonlinear systems with fractional derivative elements is presented, aligning with modern seismic design codes, like Eurocode 8. Drawing inspiration from the concept of fully non-stationary stochastic processes, the vector of the imposed seismic excitations is characterised by time and frequency evolving power spectra stochastically compatible with elastic response spectra of specified damping ratio and ground acceleration. The proposed method efficiently determines the nonlinear system time-dependent probability density functions for the non-stationary system response amplitude by employing potent nonlinear stochastic dynamics concepts, such as stochastic averaging and statistical linearisation. Unlike traditional incremental dynamic analysis curves found in the literature, the herein proposed method introduces a three-dimensional alternative counterpart, that of stochastic engineering demand parameter surfaces, providing with higher-order statistics of the system response. An additional noteworthy aspect involves the derivation of response evolutionary power spectra as function of spectral acceleration, offering a deeper insight into the underlying system dynamics. Besides its capabilities, the method maintains the coveted element of a particularly low associated computational cost, increasing its attractiveness and practicality among diverse applications of engineering interest. Numerical examples comprising the bilinear hysteretic model endowed with fractional derivative elements subject to an Eurocode 8 elastic design spectrum demonstrate the capabilities and reliability of the proposed methodology. Its accuracy is assessed by juxtaposing the derived results with germane Monte Carlo Simulation data.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"111 ","pages":"Article 102525"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142099566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}