Structural Safety最新文献

Risk-targeted design wind speeds for multi-level aerodynamic performances of long-span bridges: A real data-informed case study 大跨度桥梁多层次空气动力学性能的风险目标设计风速：一个真实的数据知情案例研究

IF 5.7 1区工程技术

Structural Safety Pub Date : 2025-07-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102637

Zihang Liu , Genshen Fang , Nikolaos Nikitas , Yizhe Lan , Lin Zhao , Yaojun Ge

{"title":"Risk-targeted design wind speeds for multi-level aerodynamic performances of long-span bridges: A real data-informed case study","authors":"Zihang Liu , Genshen Fang , Nikolaos Nikitas , Yizhe Lan , Lin Zhao , Yaojun Ge","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102637","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102637","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Most current bridge wind-resistant design standards adopt “uniform hazard” basis, ensuring the resistance exceeds design wind speed at a given return period. However, wind-induced failure probabilities for bridge structures, especially accounting for multi-level performances, are ambiguous, leading to significant differences in risk levels. To achieve the controllability and consistency in aerodynamic performances of long-span bridges, this study introduces the “uniform risk” into bridge wind engineering to determine the risk-targeted design wind speeds. Four performance objectives (occupant comfort, operational, continuous occupancy and instability), associated with the annual failure probability, are summarized. A case study is performed for Xihoumen Bridge by developing fragility curves corresponding to different vibration thresholds. Buffeting-related fragility curves are derived through a data-driven random model based on long-term measurements, while flutter fragility curve is obtained by Monte Carlo simulations incorporating various uncertainties. By combining with the wind hazard curves, failure probabilities for multi-level performances are estimated. Risk-targeted design wind speeds are calculated through the risk integral method, and the annual failure probabilities for code-recommended versus risk-targeted flutter design speeds are compared. Results indicate that Xihoumen Bridge has excessive wind resistance for the continuous occupancy and instability, while the annual failure risk for occupant comfort is relatively high. The code-recommended design wind speed falls short of ensuring multi-level performance objectives, whereas the risk-targeted design wind speeds effectively meet these criteria. This study provides a forward step in bridge wind engineering to develop the “uniform risk” design basis, serving the uptake of performance-based wind engineering design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"117 ","pages":"Article 102637"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144654440","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Target low-carbon conditional probability for low-carbon structural design 针对低碳结构设计的低碳条件概率

IF 5.7 1区工程技术

Structural Safety Pub Date : 2025-07-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102636

Bing Xia , Jianzhuang Xiao , Xiangshuo Guan

{"title":"Target low-carbon conditional probability for low-carbon structural design","authors":"Bing Xia , Jianzhuang Xiao , Xiangshuo Guan","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102636","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102636","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Probabilistic low-carbon structural design is an emerging method for mitigating structural embodied carbon, whereas the absence of a rational target for probabilistic regulation hindered its effectiveness. Here, we clarify the necessity of verifying the low-carbon conditional probability in low-carbon design of structures/structural members, and propose methods for determining acceptable and optimal low-carbon conditional probabilities (i.e., <em>P</em><sub>LT,a</sub> and <em>P</em><sub>LT,o</sub>), respectively based on the carbon mitigation obligation for construction sector and the carbon-related cost minimization for structures/structural members. Based on typical levels of parameter values for target determination, we reveal that <em>P</em><sub>LT,a</sub> is primarily influenced by the distributions of structural embodied carbon premised on safety <em>I</em><sub>s</sub> and its embodied carbon limit <em>I</em><sub>cr,c</sub>, and it typically decreases with the decrease in the difference between the coefficients of variance of <em>I</em><sub>s</sub> and <em>I</em><sub>cr,c</sub>. The reduction of marginal cost for embodied carbon reduction (<em>k</em>), the increase of relative carbon cost (<em>u</em><sub>c</sub>), and the increase of penalty for the excess of carbon emissions (<em>γ</em><sub>p</sub>) facilitate the attainment of the lowest carbon-related cost at lower embodied carbon levels, where a higher <em>P</em><sub>LT,o</sub> could be specified to promote stricter carbon mitigation efforts. The target low-carbon conditional probability <em>P</em><sub>LT</sub> is recommended to be taken as the larger of <em>P</em><sub>LT,a</sub> and <em>P</em><sub>LT,o</sub>, while the <em>γ</em><sub>p</sub> required to ensure that the lowest carbon-related cost is reached with <em>P</em><sub>LT</sub> increases as <em>k</em> increases or <em>u</em><sub>c</sub> decreases.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"117 ","pages":"Article 102636"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144687435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impact of component damage correlations on seismic fragility and risk assessment of multi-component bridge systems 构件损伤相关性对多构件桥梁体系地震易损性及风险评估的影响

IF 5.7 1区工程技术

Structural Safety Pub Date : 2025-07-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102635

Yazhou Xie

{"title":"Impact of component damage correlations on seismic fragility and risk assessment of multi-component bridge systems","authors":"Yazhou Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102635","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102635","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Seismic fragility modeling of bridges has evolved from simplified system-level assessments to high-fidelity, component-based methodologies. However, a key challenge remains in accurately incorporating damage dependency among bridge components, which might influence high-resolution seismic risk estimates that rely upon damage simulations of each bridge component. While previous studies have explored demand and capacity correlations in various structures, a comprehensive framework integrating these dependencies within the component-based bridge fragility modeling approach remains absent. This study addresses this gap by introducing a refined methodology for modeling seismic damage correlations across bridge components and damage states. A correlation-based fragility modeling framework is proposed, leveraging joint probabilistic seismic demand models and a hierarchical capacity correlation structure. The framework is systematically compared against other correlation models, including fully independent, fully correlated, and partially correlated approaches. Using a four-span, multi-column reinforced concrete bridge as a benchmark, the influence of correlation modeling on key seismic risk metrics, such as bridge collapse fragility, repair costs, and recovery durations, is assessed. Results demonstrate that neglecting damage correlation, or treating it perfectly correlated, sometimes would lead to significant biases in risk estimations. The proposed framework provides a practical extension of the existing component-level seismic fragility modeling approach for seamlessly integrating correlation effects, improving its effectiveness and applicability for downstream risk and resilience assessment of bridge systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"117 ","pages":"Article 102635"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144662089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multi-point active learning probability density evolution method 多点主动学习概率密度演化方法

IF 5.7 1区工程技术

Structural Safety Pub Date : 2025-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102633

Tong Zhou , Tong Guo , Xujia Zhu , Alexandros A. Taflanidis , Jize Zhang

{"title":"Multi-point active learning probability density evolution method","authors":"Tong Zhou , Tong Guo , Xujia Zhu , Alexandros A. Taflanidis , Jize Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102633","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102633","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Probability density evolution method has been efficiently adapted for structural reliability analysis, owing to it rooting in the principle of preservation of probability. Despite achieving significant progress in the past decades, there remains a critical need to enhance its theoretical foundations and improve computational efficiency. In this paper, we develop a multi-point active learning probability density evolution method distinguished by the following four key features: (i) <em>Quantification</em>. An explicit formulation of failure probability is proposed for probability density evolution method by combining the finite difference scheme and the Dirac sequence scheme. Then, an epistemic uncertainty measure of Kriging-based failure probability estimation is quantified. (ii) <em>Reduction</em>. A multi-point learning function is deduced in closed form, aiming to select a batch of new samples to optimally reduce such epistemic uncertainty measure. (iii) <em>Maximization</em>. The multi-point enrichment process is directly conducted based on stepwise maximization of learning function, eliminating the traditional practice of combining a single-point learning function with some additional batch selection procedures. (iv) <em>Termination</em>. The termination of multi-point enrichment process is checked from the actual reduction of epistemic uncertainty of failure probability. The proposed method is tested on four examples and compared against several existing ones in the literature. The results indicate that the proposed method comes with high accuracy of failure probability estimate, whilst gaining favorable savings of the number of iterations and the total computational time, particularly when tackling with complex dynamic reliability problems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"117 ","pages":"Article 102633"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144597543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Spatial and time-dependent reliability analysis for post-tensioned concrete decks subjected to multiple failure modes 多破坏模式下后张混凝土桥面空间时变可靠度分析

IF 5.7 1区工程技术

Structural Safety Pub Date : 2025-07-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102634

Simone Celati , Agnese Natali , Walter Salvatore , Ivar Björnsson , Sebastian Thöns

{"title":"Spatial and time-dependent reliability analysis for post-tensioned concrete decks subjected to multiple failure modes","authors":"Simone Celati , Agnese Natali , Walter Salvatore , Ivar Björnsson , Sebastian Thöns","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102634","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102634","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The durability of existing infrastructures is a worldwide challenge in structural engineering. Societal demands for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, coupled with the financial constraints faced by many countries, push infrastructure management companies and owners to extend the lifespan of existing structures. However, extending the lifespan comes with a set of problems related to safety and time-dependent degradation. The latter problem is particularly acute for prestressed bridge decks with post-tensioned tendons, which are especially prone to degradation due to defects observed for bridges built using older construction techniques.</div><div>To address this problem, we propose an approach for evaluating the global time-dependent reliability of prestressed concrete bridge decks with post-tensioned tendons, which are subject to corrosion-related degradation. A model for the time-dependent corrosion process is proposed that combines physics-based formulations with empirical evidence from existing structures, accounting for the necessary thermodynamic conditions and the quality of both the concrete and the grout. Furthermore, the sections of each deck element are assessed for two failure modes, namely, bending and shear failure. The time-dependent reliability is then computed for the bridge deck as a system accounting for the spatial and failure mode dependencies. The approach is applied to evaluate the reliability and technical service life of a prestressed structure representing a typical deck configuration for Italian prestressed bridges, and the main input variables for the case study are identified through a sensitivity analysis. Finally, it is demonstrated that the comparison with consequence-related target reliabilities facilitates the determination of a structure's remaining lifespan and provides the basis for economically efficient and sustainable integrity management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"117 ","pages":"Article 102634"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144571176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Estimation of simulation failure set with active learning based on Gaussian Process classifiers and random set theory 基于高斯过程分类器和随机集理论的主动学习仿真故障集估计

IF 5.7 1区工程技术

Structural Safety Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102607

Morgane Menz , Miguel Munoz Zuniga , Delphine Sinoquet

{"title":"Estimation of simulation failure set with active learning based on Gaussian Process classifiers and random set theory","authors":"Morgane Menz , Miguel Munoz Zuniga , Delphine Sinoquet","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102607","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102607","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A wide range of industrial applications require numerous time-consuming simulations across various input sets, such as for optimization, calibration, or reliability assessments. In that context, some simulation failures or instabilities can be observed, due for instance, to convergence issues of the numerical scheme of complex partial derivative equations. Most of the time, the set of inputs corresponding to failures is not known a priori and thus may be associated to a hidden constraint. Since the observation of a simulation failure regarding this unknown constraint may be as costly as a feasible expensive simulation, we seek to learn the feasible set of inputs and thus target areas without simulation failure before further analysis. In this classification context, we propose to learn the feasible domain with a new adaptive Gaussian Process Classifier. The proposed methodology is a batch-mode active learning classification strategy that reduces uncertainty step by step, using a random set paradigm and a Gaussian Process Classifiers. The performance of this strategy is demonstrated on several hidden-constrained problems, particularly in the context of a wind turbine simulator-based reliability analysis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"117 ","pages":"Article 102607"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144502235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Probabilistic calibration of design resistance models for the anchorage length of prestressing strands considering model uncertainty 考虑模型不确定性的预应力锚固长度设计阻力模型的概率校正

IF 5.7 1区工程技术

Structural Safety Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102631

Sergio Belluco, Flora Faleschini

{"title":"Probabilistic calibration of design resistance models for the anchorage length of prestressing strands considering model uncertainty","authors":"Sergio Belluco, Flora Faleschini","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102631","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102631","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the reliability and the model uncertainty of the anchorage length resistance models proposed in the 2nd generation Eurocode 2 and <em>fib</em> Model Code 2020. First, the two resistance models and their safety format are presented and discussed. Then, the probability distribution of the model uncertainty is estimated comparing the model predictions with a large set of flexural tests collected from the scientific literature. According to the results, the prestress release method and the strand surface conditions are the two variables affecting most the model uncertainty. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that anchorage lengths predicted with <em>fib</em> Model Code 2020 exceed the expected target level of reliability and they could be reduced, particularly for gradual prestress release. Conversely, anchorage lengths calculated according to the 2nd generation Eurocode 2 in case of sudden prestress release need to be increased to guarantee the expected level of reliability. For the same code, no significant changes are necessary in case of gradual prestress release.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"117 ","pages":"Article 102631"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144472418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Spatial variability identification of carbonation depth in concrete using Bayesian networks 利用贝叶斯网络识别混凝土碳化深度的空间变异性

IF 5.7 1区工程技术

Structural Safety Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102632

Thanh-Binh Tran , Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga

{"title":"Spatial variability identification of carbonation depth in concrete using Bayesian networks","authors":"Thanh-Binh Tran , Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102632","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102632","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate prediction of carbonation depth is crucial for evaluating the durability and service life of reinforced concrete structures.Traditional methods for assessing carbonation depth often involve destructive testing,which is both costly and time-consuming, and yields results with limited accuracy,thus restricting their practical applicability.To address these shortcomings,this research introduces a novel two-step procedure that leverages inspection data on concrete porosity and saturation degree to estimate carbonation depth.By integrating Bayesian networks and considering the influence of spatial variability,the proposed methodology aims to enhance prediction accuracy compared to existing techniques.The study comprehensively investigates the impact of various factors,including the use of individual or combined inspection data,spatial dependence,and inspection distance,on prediction performance.The findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in capturing complex interactions between concrete properties, carbonation depth, and spatial variability.This research contributes to the advancement of non-destructive evaluation methods for concrete structures and provides valuable insights for optimizing inspection strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"117 ","pages":"Article 102632"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144366112","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Reliability analysis for non-deterministic limit-states using stochastic emulators 基于随机仿真器的非确定性极限状态可靠性分析

IF 5.7 1区工程技术

Structural Safety Pub Date : 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102621

Anderson V. Pires, Maliki Moustapha, Stefano Marelli, Bruno Sudret

{"title":"Reliability analysis for non-deterministic limit-states using stochastic emulators","authors":"Anderson V. Pires, Maliki Moustapha, Stefano Marelli, Bruno Sudret","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102621","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102621","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Reliability analysis is a sub-field of uncertainty quantification that assesses the probability of a system performing as intended under various uncertainties. Traditionally, this analysis relies on deterministic models, where experiments are repeatable, <em>i.e.</em> they produce consistent outputs for a given set of inputs. However, real-world systems often exhibit stochastic behavior, leading to non-repeatable outcomes. These so-called stochastic simulators produce different outputs each time the model is run, even with fixed inputs.</div><div>This paper formally introduces reliability analysis for stochastic models and addresses it by using suitable surrogate models to lower its typically high computational cost. Specifically, we focus on the recently introduced generalized lambda models and stochastic polynomial chaos expansions. These emulators are designed to learn the inherent randomness of the simulator’s response and enable efficient uncertainty quantification at a much lower cost than traditional Monte Carlo simulation.</div><div>We validate our methodology through three case studies. First, using an analytical function with a closed-form solution, we demonstrate that the emulators converge to the correct solution. Second, we present results obtained from the surrogates using a toy example of a simply supported beam. Finally, we apply the emulators to perform reliability analysis on a realistic wind turbine case study, where only a dataset of simulation results is available.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"117 ","pages":"Article 102621"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144279732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Evaluating the importance of spatial variability of corrosion initiation parameters for the risk-based maintenance of reinforced concrete marine structures” [Struct. Saf. 114 (2025) 102568] “评估腐蚀起始参数的空间变异性对基于风险的钢筋混凝土海洋结构维修的重要性”的勘误表[结构]。联邦公报114 (2025)102568]

IF 5.7 1区工程技术

Structural Safety Pub Date : 2025-06-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2025.102618

Romain Clerc , Charbel-Pierre El-Soueidy , Franck Schoefs

引用次数: 0