Multi-hazard life-cycle consequence analysis of deteriorating engineering systems

IF 5.7 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL
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Abstract

Probabilistic life-cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis (e.g., assessment of repair costs, downtime, or casualties over an asset’s service life) can enable optimal life-cycle management of critical assets under uncertainties. This can lead to effective risk-informed decision-making for future disaster management (i.e., risk mitigation and/or resilience-enhancing strategies/policies) implementation. Nevertheless, despite recent advances in understanding, modeling, and quantifying multiple-hazard (or multi-hazard) interactions, most available LCCon analytical formulations fail to accurately compute the exacerbated consequences which may stem from incomplete or absent repair actions between different interacting hazard events. This paper introduces a discrete-time, discrete-state Markovian framework for efficient multi-hazard LCCon analysis of deteriorating engineering systems (e.g., buildings, infrastructure components) that appropriately accounts for complex interactions between natural hazard events and their effects on a system’s performance. The Markovian assumption is used to model the probability of a system being in any performance level (i.e., limit state) after multiple hazard events inducing either instantaneous and/or gradual deterioration and after potential repair actions through implementing stochastic (transition) matrices. LCCon estimates are then obtained by combining limit state probabilties with suitable system-level consequence models in a computationally efficient manner. The proposed framework is illustrated for two case studies subject to earthquake and flood events as well as environment-induced corrosion during their service life. The first is a reinforced concrete building and the second is a simple transportation road network with a reinforced concrete bridge.

老化工程系统的多危害生命周期后果分析
概率生命周期后果(LCCon)分析(例如,评估资产使用寿命内的维修成本、停机时间或人员伤亡)可以在不确定情况下对关键资产进行最佳生命周期管理。这可以为未来实施灾害管理(即降低风险和/或提高抗灾能力的战略/政策)提供有效的风险知情决策。然而,尽管近来在理解、模拟和量化多重灾害(或多种灾害)相互作用方面取得了进展,但大多数现有的 LCCon 分析方法都无法准确计算因不同相互作用的灾害事件之间的修复行动不完整或缺失而可能造成的加重后果。本文介绍了一种离散时间、离散状态的马尔可夫框架,用于对恶化的工程系统(如建筑物、基础设施组件)进行高效的多灾害 LCCon 分析,该框架可适当考虑自然灾害事件之间的复杂相互作用及其对系统性能的影响。采用马尔可夫假设,通过实施随机(过渡)矩阵,模拟系统在多次灾害事件诱发瞬时和/或逐渐劣化以及潜在修复行动后处于任何性能水平(即极限状态)的概率。然后,通过将极限状态概率与合适的系统级后果模型相结合,以计算效率高的方式获得 LCCon 估计值。本文以两个案例研究为例,说明了所提出的框架,这两个案例在使用寿命期间都受到地震和洪水事件以及环境引起的腐蚀的影响。第一个案例是钢筋混凝土建筑,第二个案例是带有钢筋混凝土桥梁的简单交通路网。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Structural Safety
Structural Safety 工程技术-工程:土木
CiteScore
11.30
自引率
8.60%
发文量
67
审稿时长
53 days
期刊介绍: Structural Safety is an international journal devoted to integrated risk assessment for a wide range of constructed facilities such as buildings, bridges, earth structures, offshore facilities, dams, lifelines and nuclear structural systems. Its purpose is to foster communication about risk and reliability among technical disciplines involved in design and construction, and to enhance the use of risk management in the constructed environment
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