{"title":"Perspectives on black swans and complexity: Practical implication to Natech risks in China","authors":"Xiangyang Hu, Xuechen Yin, Yu Guo, Fanjie Liang, Ruipeng Tong","doi":"10.1016/j.ssci.2025.106776","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ssci.2025.106776","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Black Swans are high-impact low-probability events (HILPs) and are considered too complex to cope with because of their unpredictability, uncertainty, and ambiguity. Natech risks are serious and endanger the population, the economy, and the environment, which is often associated with Black Swans as an excuse for failures in safety management. Based on systems thinking, the Complexity Landscape Model (CLM) of Black Swans was developed to identify their root causes of complexity through the Cynefin framework and regional disaster system theory. Black Swans usually occur when the hazard factors and hazard-formative environments are in chaos. Taking China as an example, case statistics and social network analysis were used to examine the intricate origins and evolutionary paths of Natech events. The results showed that technological incidents triggered by natural disasters are typically caused by human errors and inadequate application of state-of-the-art knowledge. They are foreseeable and mitigable and cannot be regarded as Black Swans. We contend that the Natech risk resilience network should be constructed based on systematic evaluation, highlighting the application of multi-disciplinary and crosscutting information; supported by departmental cooperation, emphasizing the flexibility and redundancy of disposal; and safeguarded by resource consolidation, underlining the effectiveness and breadth of participation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21375,"journal":{"name":"Safety Science","volume":"184 ","pages":"Article 106776"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143093417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Safety SciencePub Date : 2025-01-15DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106773
Madeline Dyall , Kerri-Lynn Peachey, Tony Lower
{"title":"Fatigue-related incidents and prevention strategies in Australian grain farming: A mixed-methods feasibility study","authors":"Madeline Dyall , Kerri-Lynn Peachey, Tony Lower","doi":"10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106773","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106773","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Australian farmers tend to work long hours and have few days off, leading to fatigue. Fatigue factors including longer working hours, peak seasons, reduced sleep, alcohol consumption and heat exposure, have been linked to agricultural incidents. Therefore, this feasibility study aimed to understand the impacts of fatigue on the grains industry during peak periods, gain insight into current fatigue management practices and explore the feasibility of prevention strategies from other industries. The results indicated moderate/high levels of acute fatigue, low/moderate levels of chronic fatigue and moderate/high recovery between shifts. Awareness of fatigue and its contribution to incidents were highlighted, nevertheless, a reluctance within the industry to address fatigue was expressed. Prevention strategies included regular short breaks, scheduling shifts no longer than 12 h with 10-hour intervals between, task rotation, provision of healthy meals and onsite accommodation. However, the weather, labour shortages and finances, may affect the use of these strategies. Broadening the scope to include other agricultural sectors such as beef, cotton or wool, could allow exploration of the similarities and differences regarding fatigue. Best practice measures from other industries may not be feasible in agriculture, therefore a fatigue minimisation approach is recommended. Acknowledging the existing cultural norms about fatigue, is crucial for the acceptability of prevention measures among the agricultural community.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21375,"journal":{"name":"Safety Science","volume":"184 ","pages":"Article 106773"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143093416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Work-related violence interventions in the disability sector: A systematic review and systems mapping exercise","authors":"Olivia Miller , Olivia Dobson , Tristan Casey , Sharon Newnam","doi":"10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106765","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106765","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Violence against staff is common in the healthcare sector, as are staff training interventions aiming to reduce work-related violence (WRV). However, limited research has explored the breadth of WRV interventions for staff working in the disability sector. Therefore, the current study aimed to systematically review WRV interventions for staff working in the disability sector using a systems thinking framework, PreventiMap, which is an adaption of Rasmussen’s Risk Management framework. The goal of this research was to identify opportunities to support systemic change in the sector to support the safety of workers. Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses approach, a comprehensive search strategy and eligibility criteria were applied across five databases. After screening, a total of 22 intervention studies were included for systematic review. Included studies were synthesised narratively and using the systems thinking PreventiMap technique. The efficacy of interventions was variable, as was the methodological quality of included studies. Most intervention studies (<em>n</em> = 20, 90.1 %) explored staff training, with very few (<em>n</em> = 4, 18.2 %) exploring management or company level WRV interventions. Therefore, it is recommended that organizations implement more holistic WRV interventions that address higher system levels and evaluate their effectiveness using more rigorous designs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21375,"journal":{"name":"Safety Science","volume":"184 ","pages":"Article 106765"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143093769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Safety SciencePub Date : 2025-01-08DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106772
Colin Pilbeam , David Denyer , Mike Sutliff
{"title":"Guided by principles or rules: A Delphi study on how safety professionals frame safety practices","authors":"Colin Pilbeam , David Denyer , Mike Sutliff","doi":"10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106772","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106772","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores how safety professionals conceptualize and articulate safety practices, examining how their framing influences actions, facilitates learning from failures, and impacts overall safety outcomes. Twenty-nine safety professionals participated in a Delphi study, which included three online workshops and three rounds of surveys. Eighteen safety practices were developed, framed as both rules-based and principles-based practices. Survey results indicated that both rules-based and principles-based practices were considered essential for achieving safety, with their relative balance likely being context-dependent. While all practices were considered important for preventing accidents, those framed as principles were seen as more challenging to implement but ultimately more effective, especially in complex situations. Better understanding of the way in which safety practices are framed has significant implications for the development of safety standards, guidelines, and recommendations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21375,"journal":{"name":"Safety Science","volume":"184 ","pages":"Article 106772"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143093399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Advancing occupational and system safety in Industry 5.0: Effective HAZID, risk analysis frameworks, and human-AI interaction management","authors":"Kamran Gholamizadeh , Esmaeil Zarei , Luca Gualtieri , Matteo De Marchi","doi":"10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106770","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106770","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As Industry 5.0 evolves, this study addresses critical aspects of system and occupational safety through hazard identification (HAZID), risk analysis, and the interaction between humans and artificial intelligence (HI and AI). This review investigates existing literature to answer three key research questions: (1) How is HAZID conducted to meet the safety demands of Industry 5.0? (2) What constitutes an effective risk analysis framework for this era? (3) How can conflicts between HI and AI be managed to enhance system reliability? The findings demonstrate that AI-driven approaches significantly improve HAZID processes and underscore the necessity of tailored risk analysis frameworks for effective safety management. Additionally, strategies to mitigate HI-AI conflicts are discussed, highlighting the importance of policies that foster decision-making and reliability in human-AI collaboration. The study concludes with practical recommendations for advancing safety management in complex socio-technical systems within Industry 5.0.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21375,"journal":{"name":"Safety Science","volume":"184 ","pages":"Article 106770"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143093768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Safety SciencePub Date : 2024-12-31DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106761
Tomay Solomon , Leen-Kiat Soh , Michael D. Dodd , Behzad Esmaeili
{"title":"Variables influencing change blindness in construction safety","authors":"Tomay Solomon , Leen-Kiat Soh , Michael D. Dodd , Behzad Esmaeili","doi":"10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106761","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106761","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Change blindness, a failure to detect changes in visual scenes, can impact workers’ ability to detect hazards and compromise safety on the jobsite. Examining the relationship between this phenomenon and individual characteristics (e.g., personality variables, safety training) may conceivably support safety managers in predicting susceptibility to change blindness. However, little is known regarding variables influencing change blindness in construction safety. To address this knowledge gap, this study examined the association between individual factors such as age, work experience, sex, formal safety training, personality, mindfulness, and injury exposure with change blindness in construction safety settings. To this end, a change detection experiment was conducted to measure participants’ response time and accuracy rate. Hierarchical agglomerative clustering was used to group the continuous dependent variables into analytical categories. Logistic regression was then used to analyze the association of individual factors with both response time and accuracy rate. The results revealed that age and the personality traits of agreeableness (+) and conscientiousness (−) were associated with response time, while mindfulness (+) and injury exposure (+) were associated with the accuracy rate. The findings of this study advance our understanding of variables that impact change blindness. The association of individual factors with change detection performance in construction provides a foundation for subsequent research to understand hazard identification in dynamic environments better. Regarding practice, these individual factors can be used as precursors to predict the susceptibility of workers to change blindness in construction; foreseeably, industry professionals can also utilize the predictive power of these variables to plan preventive actions on the jobsite.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21375,"journal":{"name":"Safety Science","volume":"184 ","pages":"Article 106761"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143093398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Safety SciencePub Date : 2024-12-31DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106769
Mahdi Rasouli , Hossein Karimi , Javad Hatami
{"title":"Reconstructing construction safety Training: A systematic review based on learning theories and instructional design principles","authors":"Mahdi Rasouli , Hossein Karimi , Javad Hatami","doi":"10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106769","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106769","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The construction industry faces a high rate of safety accidents. Despite being a critical component of safety management, safety training often falls short of expectations. This shortcoming has been attributed to the insufficient integration of Learning Theories (LTs) and Instructional Design (ID) principles in Construction Safety Training (CST). This paper presents a systematic review of CST, incorporating insights from prominent ID sources, including ID elements (objective, session <span><span>scheduling</span><svg><path></path></svg></span>, content, tools and methods, learning tasks, and evaluation) and the most prominent LTs. The extent of adherence to these principles and theories in previous CST studies has been evaluated by reviewing 48 CST papers to identify opportunities for improvement. Recommendations for enhancing future CSTs include a) targeting Affective objectives, b) avoiding single-session condensed training, c) incorporating task-based training, d) conducting follow-up and long-term evaluations of knowledge and behavior, and e) incorporating LTs and Principles of Instruction explicitly and systematically. This study compared student training with site worker training, as well as training with and without computer tools, to identify gaps and provide tailored recommendations to improve each type of training. The findings lay the groundwork for integrating ID knowledge into CST, avoiding ID errors, and ultimately enhancing CST’s efficiency to reduce accidents.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21375,"journal":{"name":"Safety Science","volume":"184 ","pages":"Article 106769"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143093767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Safety SciencePub Date : 2024-12-30DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106766
Fei Sun , Jiawen Zhou , Shiyu Hu , Ruoyi Zhang , Huige Xing
{"title":"Dynamically examining emergency response network resilience: A case study of a typical earthquake in China","authors":"Fei Sun , Jiawen Zhou , Shiyu Hu , Ruoyi Zhang , Huige Xing","doi":"10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106766","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106766","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The combination of multi-subject collaboration and organizational resilience strategies has recently become a significant research topic in disaster emergency response. Dynamically identifying emergency response network (ERN) resilience characteristics is essential for understanding multi-organizational collaboration and enhancing organizational response capabilities and efficiency. This study, from an integrated perspective of inherent resilience and adaptive resilience, proposed a dynamic analysis framework for ERN resilience. First, based on key resilience characteristics—adaptability, robustness, resourcefulness, and rapidity—an ERN resilience evaluation framework was constructed. The study then selected the 2022 Luding earthquake as a case study, dividing it into four periods and using social network analysis metrics to dynamically measure ERN resilience and its inherent organizational impact. The results showed that 1) earthquake ERN resilience exhibited dynamic adaptability and forward adaptability; 2) ERN resilience was significantly associated with organizational attributes and behaviors; and 3) ERN robustness was influenced by network cohesion and organizational distribution. Finally, recommendations were made to enhance disaster ERN resilience by optimizing organizational structure and responsibility allocation, improving emergency planning, and managing materials. This research provides a novel dynamic analytical framework for building disaster resilience and offers valuable insights into multi-stakeholder disaster governance for earthquake disaster resilience worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21375,"journal":{"name":"Safety Science","volume":"184 ","pages":"Article 106766"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143093502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Safety SciencePub Date : 2024-12-30DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106771
Yongfei Jin , Xin Tong , Xuezhao Zheng , Yuan Li , Beibei Dong
{"title":"Risk assessment of coal and gas outbursts driven by the theory of three types of hazards coupled with 80 accident cases","authors":"Yongfei Jin , Xin Tong , Xuezhao Zheng , Yuan Li , Beibei Dong","doi":"10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106771","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106771","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Preventing coal and gas outbursts is critical to maintaining safe and effective mining and a reliable energy supply in China. In order to solve the problems of accident chain uncertainty reasoning and a priori information ambiguity in outburst risk analysis, this paper explored the macroscopic causation mechanism based on 80 cases of coal and gas outburst accidents, constructed three types of hazards causation models using topological networks, developed a fuzzy Bayesian risk assessment model. The probability of coal and gas outburst accidents was assessed using causal reasoning, diagnostic reasoning, sensitivity analysis, and key causal path analysis, and the causative mechanism was discovered. The case study showed that: the probability of outburst in the working face of this mine was 1.3%; at the time of the accident, the probabilities of the occurrence of the second and third hazard increased by 1050% and 725%, respectively; through the analysis of the key causal paths, the probability of outburst caused by path 1 (abnormal geological conditions and organizational and management deficiencies) and path 2 (abnormal geological conditions and inadequate gas extraction) rose from the usual condition by 462.8% and 569.2%, respectively. Finally, the model was validated using two outburst accidents as samples, and the results revealed that the probability of outburst for the two accidental coal mines was 12% and 10%, respectively, and the critical causal paths were largely consistent with the accident investigation reports. The assessment model presented in this study can help managers effectively control outburst accidents.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21375,"journal":{"name":"Safety Science","volume":"184 ","pages":"Article 106771"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143093403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Safety SciencePub Date : 2024-12-29DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106768
Rubén López-Bueno , Joaquín Calatayud , Ai Koyanagi , Lee Smith , José Casaña , Lars Louis Andersen
{"title":"Occupational physical activity and mortality risk among 756 377 adults: A prospective cohort register-based study with 13 years follow-up","authors":"Rubén López-Bueno , Joaquín Calatayud , Ai Koyanagi , Lee Smith , José Casaña , Lars Louis Andersen","doi":"10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106768","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106768","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Recent research from Nordic countries observed higher levels of occupational physical activity (OPA) to increase mortality risk. However, research is required to clarify generalizability to other countries as several studies have found no or even an inverse association for certain subgroups.</div></div><div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>We aimed to investigate the association between OPA and mortality, retrieving administrative data from a Spanish population.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In a prospective cohort study, individuals from the Continuous Working Life Sample (CWLS), a representative sample with administrative registers of the workforce in Spain were followed up from baseline (January 1, 2006) to either death date or end of follow-up (September 1, 2019).</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>During 13.6 years from baseline to the end of follow-up, 23,975 (3.2 %) of the participants died. The full adjusted model showed significant associations for men aged 18–36 years in moderate (HR, 1.54; 95 % CI, 1.26–1.88), high (HR, 1.26; 95 % CI 1.01–1.58), and very high OPA (HR, 1.44; 95 % CI, 1.15–1.80). Men aged 37–64 years solely showed a significant HR for moderate OPA (HR, 1.10; 95 % CI, 1.04–1.16), whereas no significant association was found in women.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>These results warrant preventative measures to address early mortality among young working men in highly demanding physical jobs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21375,"journal":{"name":"Safety Science","volume":"184 ","pages":"Article 106768"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143093418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}