Safety Science最新文献_第4页

Can anyone hear me? Supply chain risks and cross-cutting impacts in the context of earthquakes 有人能听到我吗？地震背景下的供应链风险和交叉影响

IF 5.4 1区工程技术

Safety Science Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107134

Seray Mirasçı , Anni-Kaisa Kähkönen , Melek Akın Ateş

{"title":"Can anyone hear me? Supply chain risks and cross-cutting impacts in the context of earthquakes","authors":"Seray Mirasçı , Anni-Kaisa Kähkönen , Melek Akın Ateş","doi":"10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107134","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107134","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Natural disasters, such as earthquakes, cause distinct and often severe risks to companies’ operations and supply chains. This study examines these risks in the context of the devastating February 2023 earthquakes in Türkiye (measuring 7.7 Mw and 7.6 Mw). Empirical data were collected from 23 companies in the textile, food and beverage, and automotive sectors, representing companies across different supply chain tiers. Regarding direct supply chain risks, while well-established categories such as supplier and logistics risks and customer-related risks were observed, our findings emphasize the critical yet less recognized role of supply chain competence risks. Additionally, our results reveal that indirect risks, which are less recognized, can have far-reaching and often cascading effects. For indirect supply chain risks, we identify two newly emerging sub-dimensions: emotional and behavioral risks and humanitarian aid provided by companies. This research highlights the diverse fields, such as psychology (emotional and behavioral risks), civil engineering (building damage), and policy (political instability and governmental risks), that can indirectly disturb supply chains. This study also identifies cross-cutting risks in supply chains that span multiple categories, highlighting the interactions between different risk categories and leading to expanded effects. This study contributes to safety science by demonstrating the need to go beyond traditional supply chain risk categorizations to effectively assess and manage earthquake-specific supply chain risks, particularly in the context of a country with a developing economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21375,"journal":{"name":"Safety Science","volume":"197 ","pages":"Article 107134"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146170543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Experimental study on children’s evacuation behaviour under guidance and limited visibility 引导和受限能见度下儿童疏散行为的实验研究

IF 5.4 1区工程技术

Safety Science Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107135

Yaping Ma , Zhilian Chen , Fujian Tang , Jinghui Wang , Yunhe Tong

{"title":"Experimental study on children’s evacuation behaviour under guidance and limited visibility","authors":"Yaping Ma , Zhilian Chen , Fujian Tang , Jinghui Wang , Yunhe Tong","doi":"10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107135","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107135","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Children are among the most vulnerable populations in emergencies due to their limited response capacity, yet empirical understanding of how they evacuate under guidance and limited visibility remains limited. This study addresses this gap by conducting controlled room-evacuation experiments with child volunteers to examine the effects of visibility and guide placement on evacuation dynamics. Children’s movement trajectories, evacuation time, decision time, and movement speed–density patterns were analysed. Results show that limited visibility led to longer decision times, slower speeds, and more dispersed trajectories, with children displaying stronger following behaviours and sequential exit exploration. Guidance improved evacuation efficiency by reducing decision times and overall evacuation duration, with the strongest effects observed when the guide was positioned at or near the correct exit. Under normal visibility, however, the influence of guidance was mixed and strongly dependent on guide location. In addition, both evacuation time and decision time were positively correlated with the child’s initial distance from the correct exit. These findings provide novel empirical insights into children’s trajectory characteristics and evacuation dynamics, offering evidence-based implications for the design of guidance strategies in child-centred evacuation planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21375,"journal":{"name":"Safety Science","volume":"197 ","pages":"Article 107135"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146170914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A novel gait-based bipedal social force model for simulating pedestrian dynamics on inclined surfaces 一种新的基于步态的双足社会力模型，用于模拟斜面上的行人动力学

IF 5.4 1区工程技术

Safety Science Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107119

Wei Xie , Chenrui Xuan , Jingjie Wang , Eric Wai Ming Lee , Bingwei Tian

{"title":"A novel gait-based bipedal social force model for simulating pedestrian dynamics on inclined surfaces","authors":"Wei Xie , Chenrui Xuan , Jingjie Wang , Eric Wai Ming Lee , Bingwei Tian","doi":"10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107119","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107119","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The proliferation of vertical urban spaces has made inclined surfaces ubiquitous, yet pedestrian dynamics on ramps remain insufficiently understood and modeled. Navigating uphill slopes requires significant gait and postural adaptations to maintain stability, increasing the risk of individual falls and collective crowd incidents. To address this, we introduce a novel gait-based Bipedal Social Force Model (BSFM) that explicitly decomposes pedestrian locomotion into center-of-mass (COM) dynamics and bipedal alternation. The COM motion is driven by an enhanced social force model incorporating slope-adaptive desired speed and a biomechanically-grounded variable relaxation time. The bipedal component then dynamically generates microscopic gait parameters (step length, width, time) based on the COM kinematic state, enabling a physiologically realistic simulation of walking. The model was rigorously calibrated and validated against experimental data from treadmill gait analysis (0°, 5°, 7°, 12°) and single-file movement. Simulations demonstrated excellent agreement in reproducing key metrics, including step length reduction and the emergence of stop-and-go waves. Extensive parametric simulations beyond the experimental range further quantified fundamental relationships across a wide range of slopes (0°–30°): congestion density increases linearly with slope, while capacity decreases linearly, and both free speed and free headway follow a concave quadratic decay. These findings provide an advanced computational tool and quantitative insights for enhancing pedestrian safety and efficiency in sloped environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21375,"journal":{"name":"Safety Science","volume":"197 ","pages":"Article 107119"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146025492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An integrated approach to characterizing infrastructure socio-physical impact of hazards to guide mitigation efforts in a community 描述灾害对基础设施社会物理影响的综合方法，以指导社区的减灾工作

IF 5.4 1区工程技术

Safety Science Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107118

Yifan Yang , Jie Jiang , Yongsheng Yang , Nan Li , Long Chen , Qiuchen Lu , S. Thomas Ng

{"title":"An integrated approach to characterizing infrastructure socio-physical impact of hazards to guide mitigation efforts in a community","authors":"Yifan Yang , Jie Jiang , Yongsheng Yang , Nan Li , Long Chen , Qiuchen Lu , S. Thomas Ng","doi":"10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107118","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107118","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Legitimate impact evaluation in a community is a precursor to shed light on mitigation measures and resilience improvement in response to frequently increasing and intensifying hazards. However, prevalent hazard impact assessment in a community usually assesses the degradations of the structural or functional performance of infrastructure systems with limited concentration on their induced societal impacts during hazard events. And the inaccurate characterization of socio-physical impacts contributes to the myopic and incomplete impact mitigation and resilience improvement policymaking. This paper, to fill this gap, proposes an integrated socio-physical impact evaluation model to guide the mitigation efforts and improve resilience in a community, theoretically endorsed by both efficiency-focused and equity-oriented values. The model is composed of three modules: (i) modeling infrastructure operating regime and hazard-induced physical impact by harnessing physics-based approach; (ii) assessing the societal impact due to infrastructure service interruption using socio-based approach; (iii) trade-off analysis of socio-physical impact and the integrated evaluation to guide mitigation efforts using multi-criteria decision-making method. A demonstrative case in Wanchai District, Hong Kong is used to testify the validity of the proposed model. The strength of the model lies in that it achieves a trade-off between physical and societal impacts, which are consolidated to inform unified resilience improvement in a community compared to other methods. It is envisioned that the integrated socio-physical evaluation model can provide actionable insights for the formulation of hazard-specific preparedness strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21375,"journal":{"name":"Safety Science","volume":"197 ","pages":"Article 107118"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146080208","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How does caring affect the safety behavior of construction site workers? 关怀如何影响建筑工地工人的安全行为？

IF 5.4 1区工程技术

Safety Science Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107136

Wonkyoung Seo , Jeonghyeun Chae , Kikang Jo , Youngcheol Kang

{"title":"How does caring affect the safety behavior of construction site workers?","authors":"Wonkyoung Seo , Jeonghyeun Chae , Kikang Jo , Youngcheol Kang","doi":"10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107136","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107136","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The unsafe behavior of workers is the primary cause of accidents in the construction industry, which is considered one of the most hazardous industry sectors. This study aimed to test the hypothesis that caring behaviors by supervisors and coworkers can encourage workers’ safety behavior. The research model consisted of six factors: supervisors’ caring, co-workers’ caring, management commitment, psychological safety contract, safety climate, and workers’ safety behavior. Based on 304 valid survey responses collected using a questionnaire developed through a literature review, this study conducted a confirmatory factor analysis to assess the model fit and employed path analysis to examine the relationships among the factors. Phantom variables were applied to test the mediation effects. Thereby, the direct and indirect effects of caring on workers’ safety behaviors were identified. Caring for coworkers and supervisors was observed to have a positive effect on workers’ safety behaviors. In addition, an analysis of the total effect indicated that management commitment had the highest overall impact on workers’ safety behavior. The findings further reveal that caring behaviors originating from management, supervisors, and coworkers operate through distinct mechanisms. These observations contribute to practice by indicating that safety policies and systems should institutionalize caring practices in a role-specific manner. This would promote a stronger safety culture and reduce workplace accidents.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21375,"journal":{"name":"Safety Science","volume":"197 ","pages":"Article 107136"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146170540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Uncertainty under collaboration: A case of a maritime radiological and nuclear incident in the Arctic 合作下的不确定性：北极海上放射性和核事件案例

IF 5.4 1区工程技术

Safety Science Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107137

Emmi Ikonen, Natalia Andreassen, Rune Elvegård

{"title":"Uncertainty under collaboration: A case of a maritime radiological and nuclear incident in the Arctic","authors":"Emmi Ikonen, Natalia Andreassen, Rune Elvegård","doi":"10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107137","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107137","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>During a complex emergency response where the experience and knowledge of the hazard itself and the exact consequences are not well known, decisions must be taken under uncertainty, as soon as possible, and in collaboration with several stakeholders. Radiological emergency response in the civilian maritime setting has, in recent years, become an emerging topic. Uncertainties and risks faced by emergency response organizations during these events have not been examined as much as other maritime emergencies and, therefore, lack analysis during realistic conditions.</div><div>Through interviews, participant observation, and secondary data from a radiological and nuclear emergency response exercise, Arctic REIHN, we examined how participants experienced uncertainty under a complex collaborative exercise environment and how those uncertainties influenced emergency response efforts. We found that the type of emergency itself, combined with a lack of understanding of radiation, created unique uncertainties that amplified the complexity. The lack of situational understanding during the initial stages of the incident and the reliance on expert assessments of radiation created decision uncertainties regarding safety and response options when the reaction time was limited. Epistemic and pragmatic uncertainties linked to roles and procedures further hamper critical collaborative efforts. Our findings contribute to uncertainty typologies and may be utilized in developing collaboration strategies between organizations to strengthen operational handling and improve risk communication.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21375,"journal":{"name":"Safety Science","volume":"197 ","pages":"Article 107137"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146170544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Policy feedback in crowd-safety crises: a dynamic topic modeling approach to South Korea’s Post-Itaewon crisis 人群安全危机中的政策反馈：韩国后梨泰院危机的动态主题建模方法

IF 5.4 1区工程技术

Safety Science Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107132

Saemi Chang, HaeJung Kim

{"title":"Policy feedback in crowd-safety crises: a dynamic topic modeling approach to South Korea’s Post-Itaewon crisis","authors":"Saemi Chang, HaeJung Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107132","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107132","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In October 2022, a tragic crowd crush in Itaewon, South Korea, triggered intense public outrage over the government’s unpreparedness. This study examines how public discourse and policy actions interacted over time, using policy feedback theory to analyze how government responses influenced trust, engagement, and meaning making. Online data were collected from Korea’s largest platform, Naver, and dynamic topic modeling was applied to identify evolving themes in citizen narratives. These trends were then aligned with the timeline of policy measures, ranging from symbolic gestures to more structured reforms. Results reveal a dynamic feedback loop: early policies were perceived as symbolic gestures responding to political pressure, while subsequent reforms that gained greater public visibility and addressed prevailing concerns gradually redirected discourse toward future-oriented preparedness. However, a resurgence of concern over site-specific risks in late 2024 indicated that technocratic solutions alone may not fully restore trust or closure. By tracing shifts in online discourse alongside government actions, this study highlights the interpretive mechanisms through which citizens assess post-crisis governance. Findings offer insight into when and how policy responsiveness supports democratic legitimacy, and underscore the importance of visible, emotionally resonant, and experientially credible reforms in maintaining public confidence after disaster.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21375,"journal":{"name":"Safety Science","volume":"197 ","pages":"Article 107132"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146080210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

SafeDriveEdge: multimodal vision-language reasoning for real-time decision support in intelligent vehicles SafeDriveEdge：用于智能车辆实时决策支持的多模态视觉语言推理

IF 5.4 1区工程技术

Safety Science Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107115

Mohammad Tami , Ahmad Hasasneh , Huthaifa I. Ashqar , Mohammed Elhenawy

{"title":"SafeDriveEdge: multimodal vision-language reasoning for real-time decision support in intelligent vehicles","authors":"Mohammad Tami , Ahmad Hasasneh , Huthaifa I. Ashqar , Mohammed Elhenawy","doi":"10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107115","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107115","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study introduces SafeDriveEdge, a lightweight framework for on-device, safety–critical reasoning in intelligent vehicles, built around HazardNet, a compact and interpretable multimodal large language model tailored for real-time, safety–critical reasoning in autonomous driving. By leveraging parameter-efficient fine-tuning (LoRA) and quantized LoRA (QLoRA) on the newly developed HazardQA dataset, HazardNet achieves 84.1 % F1-score in risk identification and delivers over 95 % of GPT4o-mini’s performance using only a fraction of its parameters and hardware resources. Operating with just 4 GB of memory and sub-second inference latency, SafeDriveEdge enables real-time deployment of HazardNet on edge devices without reliance on cloud connectivity. Unlike traditional models, HazardNet produces chain-of-thought (CoT) rationales, enabling transparent and auditable decision-making in complex traffic scenarios. Through the introduction of the HazardQA dataset, which comprises over 7,000 vision-language question–answer (QA) pairs enriched with CoT explanations, this work not only trained HazardNet to provide accurate outputs but also enabled it to reason causally about dynamic and complex road scenarios. This work demonstrates that domain-adapted, reasoning-capable models can outperform larger general-purpose systems in high-stakes environments while remaining lightweight and interpretable. These findings advocate for a paradigm of parameter-efficient specialization to improve traffic safety and open avenues for the broader adoption of AI in safety–critical domains. Both the HazardNet model and the HazardQA dataset are available at https://huggingface.co/Tami3/HazardNet and https://huggingface.co/datasets/Tami3/HazardQA, respectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21375,"journal":{"name":"Safety Science","volume":"197 ","pages":"Article 107115"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146025496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An instrument to assess high reliability in organizations: psychometric properties, practical utility and theoretical relevance 一种评估组织中高可靠性的工具：心理测量特性、实际效用和理论相关性

IF 5.4 1区工程技术

Safety Science Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107117

S. Alexander Haslam , Tarli Young , Melinda Layton , Olivia Burdon , Kïrsten Way , Niklas K. Steffens , Blake McMillan , Sally Knox , Wieke Scholten , Emma Knight , Jolanda Jetten , Susan Johnston

{"title":"An instrument to assess high reliability in organizations: psychometric properties, practical utility and theoretical relevance","authors":"S. Alexander Haslam , Tarli Young , Melinda Layton , Olivia Burdon , Kïrsten Way , Niklas K. Steffens , Blake McMillan , Sally Knox , Wieke Scholten , Emma Knight , Jolanda Jetten , Susan Johnston","doi":"10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107117","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107117","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High-reliability organizations (HROs) exhibit close to error-free performance while operating in environments where failure can be catastrophic. Yet while HROs have been the focus of research for decades, as things stand, no broadly applicable and validated instrument has been developed to assess whether employees’ experience their organization to be functioning as an HRO (i.e., in line with the hallmarks of HROs set out by <span><span>Weick & Sutcliffe, 2001</span></span>). To address this gap, we (a) worked with subject-matter experts to develop an instrument to assess people’s HRO experience (HRO<sup>X</sup>) and test its construct validity (Study 1), (b) validated the instrument in a convenience sample of full-time workers (N = 290; Study 2) and (c) re-validated the instrument with a targeted sample of employees working in HRO-typical industries (N = 293, Study 3). Results from Studies 2 and 3 provided evidence of the reliability and construct validity of the HRO<sup>X</sup> and also confirmed its convergent and discriminant validity. Supporting the instrument’s predictive validity, in both studies the HRO<sup>X</sup> predicted safety-related outcomes, workplace health and wellbeing-related outcomes, and relevant attitudinal outcomes. Finally, speaking to the instrument’s theoretical validity, both studies supported hypotheses derived from the Social Identity Model of HROs (<span><span>Haslam et al., 2022</span></span>). In particular, HRO<sup>X</sup> was predicted both by social identification and by identity leadership — although the focus of this differed across studies. In this way, the HRO<sup>X</sup> scale appears to provide a solid platform for the assessment and refinement of principles that underpin high reliability in organizational contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21375,"journal":{"name":"Safety Science","volume":"197 ","pages":"Article 107117"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146025493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Route icing risk modelling for arctic marine operations: a predictive framework for enhanced operational planning and risk preparedness 北极海上作业航线结冰风险建模：加强作业规划和风险准备的预测框架

IF 5.4 1区工程技术

Safety Science Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2025.107085

Tiantian Zhu , Eirik Mikal Samuelsen , Nikolai Figenschau

{"title":"Route icing risk modelling for arctic marine operations: a predictive framework for enhanced operational planning and risk preparedness","authors":"Tiantian Zhu , Eirik Mikal Samuelsen , Nikolai Figenschau","doi":"10.1016/j.ssci.2025.107085","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ssci.2025.107085","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ship operations in the Arctic face significant challenges from icing, particularly during winter. Icing on vessel surfaces poses serious risks, including reduced stability that can lead to capsizing in the worst case. The International Maritime Organization (IMO)’s Polar Code mandates that ship operators assess and mitigate icing risks during operational planning. However, the absence of route icing risk models or metrics not only hinders effective implementation of these regulations, risk preparedness, and onboard decision-making. This study introduces a route icing risk model to estimate the spatial–temporal icing risk of Arctic voyages, leveraging the developed MINCOG icing rate model and weather forecasts. Thresholds are tested to determine a suitable value for defining severe icing events using historical ship voyage data and reanalysis weather data from 2021 to 2023. Ten ship voyages were analysed to compare route icing risk predictions based on forecast data versus reanalysis data, revealing significant discrepancies. The effects of route discretization intervals, speed changes, and waypoint adjustments on route icing risk estimation are examined using sensitivity analysis. Results indicate that larger discretization intervals may underestimate risk, while waypoint deviations have a greater impact on icing risk than speed adjustments. Both factors have limited influence when arrival times are fixed comparing with arrival time not fixed. A case study demonstrates the model’s application for multi-objective fishing route optimization, balancing icing risk, voyage duration, and catch maximization. This model provides a valuable tool for risk-informed routing, preparedness, accident prevention, and regulatory compliance in the Arctic waters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21375,"journal":{"name":"Safety Science","volume":"196 ","pages":"Article 107085"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145791139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0