Risk Management最新文献

{"title":"Pipeline Repair Planning Using a Digital Environment to Improve Integrity Tasks","authors":"W. Sharman, Phillip Sander, Owen Hall, Jonathan Martin, John Spurlock","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87094","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87094","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In the transition to a digital environment for pipeline integrity management, the traditional methods for assessment of in-line inspections (ILI) and subsequent repair planning, are progressing from a manual process of utilizing paper-based information sources and relatively simple spreadsheet calculations, to an all-encompassing digital process.\u0000 There have been significant improvements to the management and alignment of pipeline and related inspection / survey data. The subsequent algorithms and procedures used to determine pipeline repairs need to evolve in conjunction to benefit from the extra information readily available. As part of the development of integrity management software, we made advancements in repair planning procedures and this paper describes the challenges encountered and the subsequent solutions adopted.\u0000 The traditional approach to repair and dig site planning has been based on the ILI vendor’s dig sheet, reviewed in conjunction with the pipeline listing, allowing an integrity engineer to identify necessary repairs following an integrity assessment and repair rules adopted by the pipeline operator. It can then be determined whether multiple repair locations can be combined into a single dig site, or if a more advanced repair method is required due to the presence of other pipeline features (e.g. an existing pipeline repair). An experienced engineer, provided with sufficient information about the state of the pipeline, should be able to provide an appropriate repair solution that requires only minor adjustment once excavations begin, saving a significant amount of cost and effort for the repairs, at the expense of high efforts on the engineer’s part.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90218776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Risk-Based Design Approach for Uncased Pipe Under Roads and Railways","authors":"Hafeez Nathoo, M. Nessim, M. Stephens","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87102","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 A risk-based pressure design approach has been developed for uncased pipe under roads and railways. Similar to the approach currently used in Canadian Standard Association’s Standard Z662, the approach uses a set of hoop stress factors to calculate the minimum wall thickness from the pipe’s pressure, diameter, and specified minimum yield strength. The hoop stress factors were calibrated to meet specified reliability targets considering the risk factors specific to roads and railways, which include elevated probabilities of mechanical damage due to higher construction activity rates, safety impact on road users, and potential costs of traffic interruption in case of a pipeline failure. The hoop stress factors are defined as a function of the safety class, which is determined according to the approach described in a companion IPC paper.\u0000 This paper describes the development approach and provides a comparison between its results and the designs obtained from the current CSA Z662 approach. An analysis confirming adequacy of the resulting wall thicknesses to withstand normal traffic loads is also presented. The approach is being proposed as an alternative to the hoop stress factors currently used in CSA Z662.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"83 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82066955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Safe Repurposing of Vintage Pipelines for Hydrogen in North America","authors":"Daniel Sandana, N. Gallon, Ollie Burkinshaw, A. Bhatia","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87088","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87088","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Hydrogen has been championed as a vital player in the future energy mix needed to achieve net-zero carbon emissions. The deployment of hydrogen at an industrial scale will require pipelines for transportation, and given the many obstacles to new pipeline construction, it appears inevitable that a large proportion of the future hydrogen pipeline network will consist of repurposed existing infrastructure.\u0000 Conversion strategies require that retrofit pipelines remain operationally safe under the new mode of transportation. From an integrity perspective, the conversion exercise will require understanding the line pipe material’s “DNA” (e.g. grades, hard spots) and assessing the impact of hydrogen on key pipeline mechanical properties (e.g. fracture toughness) and on the tolerance of integrity threats. These threats include those that may already exist from previous hydrocarbon service (e.g. stress-corrosion cracking), those that are directly related to the conversion to hydrogen (e.g. fatigue) and those that are an integral part of a pipeline life cycle (e.g. third-party damages, geohazards). There is currently a lack of clarity within the industry about how to quantify and manage these threats to hydrogen pipelines. How, if at all, should an integrity management strategy for a hydrogen pipeline differ from that of a natural gas pipeline?\u0000 In order to define the boundaries of the existing North American pipeline network and the starting point for conversion, this paper will conduct an Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) of (i) the pipeline network’s “DNA” (e.g. diameters, thicknesses, grades, fracture toughness, hard spots, age), and (ii) the pipeline threat and condition attributes (e.g. pre-existing crack threats, crack distribution). This paper will take advantage of the knowledge derived from the ROSEN Integrity Data Warehouse (IDW), a global repository of ILI results and Integrity Management, in order to quantify the characteristics specific to North America.\u0000 A pragmatic approach to safely repurposing existing pipelines to hydrogen service will be then presented in recognition of the identified regional ‘DNA’ and integrity peculiarities, and in respect to applicable local codes and regulations.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80804972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Adapting Existing Quantitative Risk Assessment Tools for the Energy Transition","authors":"M. Horn, Tara Franey, Jeremy Fontenault","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-84761","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-84761","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable or cleaner energy sources is upon us. There is also a global focus on reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions. Several major companies are placing an emphasis on solutions such as hydrogen and carbon capture and sequestration or reuse. While this will provide new business opportunities for the pipeline industry, there are inherent risks, especially as they are scaled up to meet societal demand. Therefore, there is a need to assess the potential for harm to people and the environment.\u0000 Hydrogen is a flammable gas with the potential for both fire and explosion. Carbon dioxide is an asphyxiant at high concentrations and can dissolve in water, having unintended environmental effects. Traditional oil dispersion models have been used by the oil and gas sector and pipeline industry for decades to investigate overland, downstream, and in water movement, behavior, and potential effects of hypothetical and real-world releases. Atmospheric dispersion models have been used to assess vapor transport, resulting potential impacts (e.g., asphyxiation and or toxic effects) to humans and the environment, and risk of fire and explosion.\u0000 Based upon our experience with the current regulatory environment, the scrutiny placed upon operators by regulators and intervenors (especially with other products such as oil), and the large amount of time required to plan, permit, construct, and operate pipelines, we believe these comprehensive and quantitative assessments will be at the forefront of decision making. The use and potential adaptation of these existing modeling tools will be crucial in assessing risk from transport, storage, and use to ensure safety of each project through all phases of its life cycle (e.g., prior to permitting, construction, operation, and decommissioning) during this energy transition.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91148537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Feasibility Journey - Repurposing Existing Natural Gas Pipelines to Transport Hydrogen – Natural Gas Blends","authors":"S. N. Esmaeely, S. Finneran, Tara Podnar McMahan","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87353","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87353","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Transformation and decarbonization of existing energy systems are a key part of global energy transition efforts to meet targets set in the COP21 Paris Agreement. The feasibility of transitioning existing natural gas networks to hydrogen or hydrogen-natural gas (H2 – NG) blends, is being evaluated by many natural gas operators as part of their decarbonization strategy.\u0000 It is recognized that the transportation of hydrogen or blended hydrogen and natural gas presents potential challenges that should be considered and assessed before exposing an existing system to hydrogen transport. One of the first steps in such assessment is conducting a high-level study of the existing network feasibility for the transitioning purpose. Such high-level studies include the material and equipment compatibility of the network with H2 to determine an acceptable range of H2 concentration (H2%) that could safely be added to the blend with modest levels of investment and system modifications. The network feasibility is investigated from different aspects including material integrity, equipment accuracy and functionality, chemical compatibility, end use as well as storage and handling.\u0000 A thorough feasibility study assesses the entirety of the gas supply value chain, from injection to end-use compatibility and is based upon the operator’s hydrogen strategy and roadmap, which details the network capacity of handling hydrogen safely with a detail of necessary modifications.\u0000 This paper provides an overview of the factors that should be considered throughout a hydrogen feasibility assessment and addresses additional aspects of the overall hydrogen journey that may be evaluated along the way.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84599509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrity Assessment of Linepipes for Transporting High Pressure Hydrogen Based on ASME B31.12","authors":"N. Ishikawa, T. Sakimoto, J. Shimamura, Jiawei Wang, Yong-Yi Wang","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87180","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87180","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Current hydrogen pipeline code ASME B31.12 requires that pipe materials shall be qualified for adequate resistance to fracture in hydrogen gas based on Article KD-10 of ASME BPVC, Sec. VIII, Division 3. In order to assess the integrity of a hypothetical hydrogen pipeline, fracture toughness and fatigue crack growth tests under gaseous hydrogen at up to 21MPa were first conducted using a recent Grade X65 linepipe with fine grained bainitic microstructure. Fatigue crack growth in the pressurized linepipe with semi-elliptical surface flaw was calculated by the procedures described in the Article KD-10 using the da/dN data obtained from the X65 linepipe and the fatigue crack growth equation specified in ASME B31.12. Pressure cycles were applied to the pipe with a surface flaw to investigate the effects of pressure range and design factor. The critical crack size was analyzed using the failure assessment diagram (FAD) concept which is also specified in Article KD-10. Significant fatigue crack growth was not observed under the lower design factor such as fD = 0.5 with small pressure range, while fatigue crack growth was drastically accelerated under the higher design factor and large pressure fluctuation. Integrity assessment by FAD analysis for longitudinal semi-elliptical crack and girth weld flaw clarified how the toughness value affects the critical condition.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82411796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Advanced Reliability Analysis at Slope Crossings","authors":"Matt Fowler, Kachi Ndubuaku, N. Yoosef-Ghodsi","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-86908","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-86908","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Pipelines cross diverse terrain and as a result are subjected to a variety of geotechnical hazards. Depending on the location of the pipeline relative to a geotechnical threat, it may be subjected to external forces which could lead to pipeline deformation or failure. Generally, geotechnical threats manifest as slope movement, subsidence/settlement, seismic waves, or frost heave/thaw settlement. While similar analysis techniques may have tangential applicability to all these threats, this paper focuses on the landslide/slope movement scenario. Here, the authors present an approach for evaluating pipelines in areas where slope movement is known or has the potential to occur. The methodology uses advanced finite element analysis (FEA) and statistical reliability techniques to estimate the probability of failure (PoF) of the pipeline at a given site. A case study where the method was employed is also presented. The presented process serves as an advanced analysis tool within a geohazard reliability program. This in-depth PoF analysis can be conducted after a screening level assessment has highlighted a given site.\u0000 The data required for the analysis includes, at minimum: basic pipe properties, operational information, inertial measurement unit (IMU) in line inspection (ILI) pipeline centerline data, depth of cover survey data, and some estimation of relevant soil to pipe interaction parameters. Other information that can be incorporated to enhance accuracy and reduce conservatism include geotechnical reports and instrumentation measurements (e.g. slope inclinometers or strain gauges). The uncertainties associated with the inputs are estimated based on standards or subject matter expert (SME) input. Incorporating the defined uncertainties, numerical models are created using the commercially available finite element (FE) analysis software ABAQUS, where the pipe is modeled using pipe beam elements and the soil to pipe interactions is modeled using pipe-soil interaction elements. The FE models are processed using a design of experiments (DoE) approach to define response surfaces for both compressive and tensile strain demands. Strain capacities are estimated using the Dorey (U of A) and CRES (PRCI) models for compressive and tensile strains, respectively. Using the resulting relationships for strain demands and capacities, Monte Carlo simulations are completed using the previously defined uncertainties. The simulated cases where strain demand exceeds capacity produce an estimation of probability of exceedance (PoE). Finally, the PoF is obtained by multiplying the PoE by an estimated likelihood of slope movement occurring and impacting the pipe.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"81 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78044463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Learnings From Implementing an API 1173 Compliant Management System","authors":"Dale Potter, Mark S. Jean","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-86868","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-86868","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In July of 2015, the American Petroleum Institute (API) published Recommended Practice (RP) 1173 to provide an industry framework for the development of a Pipeline Safety Management System (PSMS). Regulators and industry companies worked together to develop the RP, providing the basis for enhanced public safety and protection.\u0000 Recognizing the inherent benefits to their organization, CHS’ pipelines and terminals division began developing their API RP 1173 compliant management system in February 2016. They were early adopters of this new management system approach and have had several years to not only develop their frameworks, policies, procedures, templates, and tools, but also to implement and ingrain them within their organization. The approach taken was methodic and systematic and focussed on right-sizing their system to match their specific organizational requirements. This supported CHS’ focus on building and applying the right pieces of their system in the right order to build organizational momentum and adoption. Roles and responsibilities throughout the organization were carefully defined to support implementation, administration, and management of the system. The establishment of CHS’ management system not only supported improved safety, but it also helped support the integration and alignment of different pipeline business areas. Throughout CHS’ development and implementation of its management system, key challenges and learnings were identified.\u0000 This paper will outline the approach taken by CHS to assess and implement API RP 1173 within their pipeline and terminals division. The paper will outline the specific steps taken, the approach to building their company-specific framework and the learnings that were discovered along their journey. This paper will be of specific interest to those companies that may be in various stages of developing and implementing API RP 1173 within their respective organizations.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75613425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Alternative Sampling Plans for Verification of Pipeline Material Properties: Frequentist and Bayesian Statistical Approaches","authors":"J. Ludlow","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87115","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The creation and retention of accurate records reflecting the makeup of a pipeline is a critical aspect of pipeline safety. In the U.S., 49 CFR 192 provides guidance on the verification of pipeline material properties for populations of like pipe, including the development of alternative sampling plans for populations that lack complete documentation. But the code provides little guidance on how to formulate such a plan and how to process the samples as they arrive.\u0000 Various statistical approaches exist for developing lower bounds on material properties based upon measurements. On one hand, frequentist (or classical) approaches are sometimes simpler to understand and implement. On the other hand, Bayesian approaches allow for the incorporation of natural prior information to improve the estimate.\u0000 Estimating the yield strength (YS) is often one of the most important objectives of an alternative sampling plan. This paper presents a study of frequentist and Bayesian statistical approaches to developing a lower bound on YS using simulations of alternative sampling plans. Various hypothetical pipe populations with different distribution assumptions, indicative of different possible manufacturing patterns at the pipe mill, are simulated then alternative sampling plans are conducted for each simulated population under both frequentist and Bayesian statistical approaches. For each approach, the resulting lower bound on YS is estimated and compared with the true population lower bound. This direct comparison is possible since full information on the simulated populations is available. The relative merits of each statistical approach are compared, and recommendations about which approaches are most suitable are provided.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78885945","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"CSA EXP16: Human and Organizational Factors for Optimal Pipeline Performance","authors":"Claudine Bradley, S. Capper","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-86832","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-86832","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Human and Organizational Factors (HOF) as a discipline applies tools, theory, principles, data and methods to optimize human, organizational, and overall system performance. To date, there has been relatively little guidance available to pipeline operating companies regarding the integration of HOF within and across organizational management systems, pipeline protection programs, and operational activities. CSA Group Express Document EXP16 (EXP16) entitled Human and organizational factors for optimal pipeline performance is intended to address this deficiency. It builds upon a previously published express document, which was more limited in scope: CSA EXP248 Pipeline Human Factors.\u0000 EXP16 is intended to offer practical guidance regarding the management of Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) and provide greater content dedicated to organizational factors such as leadership, governance, management system effectiveness, and safety culture.\u0000 EXP16 has been prepared and reviewed by the CSA Group’s Development Committee on Human and Organizational Factors for Optimal Pipeline Performance. The committee was comprised of representatives from pipeline companies, consulting firms, regulatory agencies, investigative bodies, and HOF subject matter experts from various technical fields (e.g., nuclear). The goal of the document was to marry the introduction of key concepts with practical guidance and best practices that a pipeline company may apply to support enhanced performance, including the prevention of harm to people, property, and the environment caused by a major hazard accident (e.g., unintended product release, spill, explosion, fire).\u0000 This paper will review the content and application of EXP16. It will discuss seven key HOF principles and introduce several relevant PIFs associated with People, Organization, and Task, Technology, and Workplace. The impact and management of PIFs throughout the pipeline life cycle will be explored.\u0000 This paper will also present the key concept of “the learning organization” and how this outcome may be facilitated through both the proactive and reactive application of HOFs.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86136462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}