Risk Management最新文献

{"title":"Assessing Geohazard Probability of Pipeline Failure: Lessons and Improvements From the Last 10 Years","authors":"S. Newton, Joel Van Hove, M. Porter, G. Ferris","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87319","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87319","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Geohazards, consisting of geotechnical hazards where ground movements impact pipelines and hydrotechnical hazards where pipelines cross watercourses, can threaten pipeline integrity, causing leaks or ruptures. Given the vast geographies traversed by pipeline infrastructure, geohazard frequency can be high requiring triage of large inventories of identified geohazard sites. Since 2012, field screening probability of failure algorithms have been used to assess and prioritize geohazard threats to pipeline integrity. These algorithms were developed using empirical data from failure case histories, engineering judgement from geohazard professionals, and statistical rates of pipeline impact, exposure, and failure. When combined with consequences, the algorithms provide semi-quantitative risk assessments. The risk assessments are used to compare geohazard threats to other pipeline integrity threats to support cost-benefit decisions for pipeline operation. The algorithms have been applied to 243,000 sites on 440,000 km of oil and gas gathering, transmission, and distribution pipelines primarily in Canada and the United States.\u0000 In this paper, lessons learned from applying probability of failure algorithms to geohazard sites over the past 10 years are shared. The algorithms have proved successful in that their use has allowed pipeline operators to focus their integrity management effort on higher probability of failure sites. Use of the algorithms also allows operators to reduce investment on low probability of failure geohazard crossings. For example, the probability of failure assessments provide justification for less frequent reinspection intervals of low probability of failure sites, while providing clear means of advocating for the need to mitigate and monitor high probability of failure geohazard sites. Over the past decade, recalibration of the algorithms has reduced conservatism in earlier versions. As well, advancements in data collection, storage, and quality assurance have been undertaken to improve accuracy.\u0000 This paper describes the methods used to assess probability of failure for pipeline landslide and watercourse crossings. The use cases and limitations of the algorithms are also discussed.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75640152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Balancing Hydrogen Networks Safely: A Method for Calculating Linepack Potential Without Causing Integrity Risk Due to Hydrogen-Enhanced Fatigue","authors":"O. Wesselink, A. Krom, Martin H. van Agteren","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-86674","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-86674","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The hydrogen economy is about to shift towards a large-scale decarbonization solution, a transition in which green hydrogen will take the stage. An increasing share of green hydrogen means that supply and demand will be more widely spread, in terms of distance as well as timing. Transport system operators see a temporary role for themselves in solving this issue of imbalance. Gasunie will have developed a ‘hydrogen backbone’ by 2030, approximately 1200 km in length, of which 80% will consist of re-used natural gas pipelines with 36–48 inch diameters. Hydrogen pipeline networks can efficiently accommodate temporal imbalances via their linepack.\u0000 However, there is a downside to using linepack this way. Highly volatile production volumes of green hydrogen, caused by volatile wind and solar profiles, will result in frequent significant pressure fluctuations in the pipelines. This is worrying because pipeline crack-like defects in contact with hydrogen gas grow about ten times faster compared to natural gas under the same pressure fluctuations. This effect is known as hydrogen-enhanced fatigue defect growth. Increasing the frequency and amplitude of pressure fluctuations for balancing using linepack will lead to even higher defect growth rates, compared to a more constant pressure regime.\u0000 Enhanced fatigue can be prevented by controlling the pressure fluctuations, but this limits the maximum available linepack. This difficult choice between commercial interests and pipeline integrity justifies performing a quantitative analysis of market-driven pressure fluctuations in hydrogen networks and their effect on defect growth and lifetimes of these hydrogen networks. This paper describes an integrated simulation model that can calculate dynamic network behaviour for hydrogen transport networks and give an indication of the corresponding defect growth risks that come with this network behaviour.\u0000 By using this integrated simulation model, safe margins can be calculated for providing sufficient linepack without risking increased hydrogen-enhanced fatigue defect growth, which can undermine the integrity of a pipeline and reduce the lifetime of this asset. Insights from this model are applied by Gasunie to maximize security of supply and minimize integrity risks. This is essential in the start-up phase of the hydrogen economy due to the absence of sufficient flexibility in production and storage.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74142389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Quantitative Risk Assessment Framework for Natural Gas Storage Wells","authors":"T. Dessein, B. Ayton, A. Fraser, Shawn Smith, Mari Shironishi, Travis Sera","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-86833","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-86833","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 A quantitative framework for risk assessment of natural gas storage wells, including the wellhead and connected piping, has been developed to assess SoCalGas’s underground gas storage sites in California. The approach has been developed to meet and exceed the risk assessment requirements of API RP 1171 (incorporated by reference in U.S. regulation 49 CFR 192.12) and the recent changes to the California Code of Regulations. Further, several of the recommendations made in the recent PHMSA study, “Risk Assessment and Treatment of Wells” (2021), have been addressed and incorporated.\u0000 The framework uses a dynamic fault tree to aggregate the barrier failure rates from over 80 potential failure mechanisms to quantify the combined probability of an accidental release to the atmosphere and the resulting hazards. The modular architecture allows operators to use threat-specific models with differing levels of sophistication. Additionally, the framework accounts for the interplay between barriers to failure in a well, the benefits of continuous monitoring, and the effect that wellhead spacing, cement quality, and well-inflow performance have on the expected consequences.\u0000 Priority to develop quantitative models is given to the threats that potentially have high probability or high consequences and to threats with effective mitigation options, such as corrosion and external interference threats. For threats with very low consequences or likelihood of occurrence, simple models with conservative assumptions are typically sufficient because the contribution to overall risk is low. This process minimizes the overall analysis complexity and allows mitigations to be tailored to the higher-risk threats.\u0000 This paper describes example assessments to illustrate how the framework can quantify the benefits of integrity management activities, such as an erosion monitoring program, continuous pressure monitoring of the annuli, and adding protections to minimize risk from vehicle collisions.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"222 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75907424","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Development of an Online Calculation Tool for Safety Evaluation of Pipes Subjected to Ground Movements","authors":"Qian Zheng, Weichen Qiu, Noah Ergezinger, Yong Li, N. Yoosef-Ghodsi, Matt Fowler, S. Adeeb","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-86485","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-86485","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Underground pipelines are inevitably installed in unstable geohazard areas associated with the possible development of significant ground deformations. Under ground movement, excessive strains can be generated in the pipe wall, which poses a threat to pipeline integrity. This study aims to develop an industry-oriented calculation tool for safety evaluation of pipes subjected to ground movements induced by a variety of nature and construction-related hazards. The tool, comprised of deterministic and reliability-based analyses, is designed within MecSimCalc which is an innovative online platform for creating and sharing web-based Apps for individuals and groups. Calculation flow behind the tool is developed according to a novel method proposed based upon the finite difference method (FDM). Given grid nodes along the pipe, a large set of simultaneous finite-difference equations are constructed based on nonlinear governing differential equations of the Euler-Bernoulli beam under large deflections. The nonlinearities arising from pipe material, pipe-soil interaction, and geometry of the pipe are considered within the model. As unknowns of the finite-difference equations, the axial and lateral displacement of the pipe at each grid node can be obtained using nonlinear equation solvers. This method is utilized to predict the strain demand in the limit state function for reliability-based assessment. Applying stochastic properties for each basic parameter, the probability of failure can be calculated using Monte Carlo Simulation. Meanwhile, the program is compiled using Numba in Python and then optimized by the parallelization technique to enhance computational efficiency.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"59 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76088292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Safety Considerations for the Transport of Hydrogen Gas in Line Pipes and Induction Bent Pipes","authors":"Georgi Genchev, J. Mentz, H. Brauer, C. Kalwa, E. Muthmann, Daniel Ratke","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-86888","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-86888","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 With increasing impact of hydrogen-based economy it is necessary to consider relevant hydrogen embrittlement effects and risks resulting from it. As higher gas pressures are in discussion, the use of higher steel strength levels as compared to existing pipelines appears reasonable. Clarifying the product requirements is necessary for safe operation. Lately, the interaction of pressurized hydrogen gas with steel has been studied more detailed. This allows more precise safety considerations for the transport of hydrogen gas. The results of laboratory trials of different semi-finished products (medium and large diameter line pipes, induction bent pipes) exposed to hydrogen gas will be used to clarify this point. Several laboratory test methods were selected, allowing to focus on local effects of hydrogen enrichment in conjunction with mechanical loads. Challenges when testing in high pressure hydrogen environment result mainly from the safety aspects to be respected, but also from precautions required to achieve reproducible test conditions and to avoid unwanted system contaminations.\u0000 Substantiated test results indicate excellent behavior of the materials tested in terms of ductility and fracture toughness in high pressure hydrogen applications; all relevant ASME criteria for material selection are fully met.\u0000 To support the ongoing discussion regarding hydrogen testing protocols and relevant material properties (toughness parameters) in both, qualification of components and design of pipelines, Salzgitter and its Steel Processing business units are planning further extended R&D studies.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"359 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76402659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Design and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) of Bulkheads for a Pipe-in-Pipe Flowline: Application of ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code","authors":"M. Shekarforoush, Hamid Hoorzad, Jaspreet Hothi, M. Forcinito","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87070","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Evaluating a pipe-in-pipe (PIP) system with bulkheads is not explicitly covered by the Canadian Standards Association (CSA) Z662 for oil & gas pipeline systems and refers to the rules in the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC Section VIII, Division 2) as alternative reference code. However, the BPVC does not specifically address the pipeline design. Due to the nonlinear nature of the PIP and bulkhead geometry and loading condition, careful modeling and an appropriate interpretation and application of design criteria by BPVC code are required. The current paper addresses the challenges and recommendations for geometric design of the bulkheads, the appropriate modeling of the problem using FEA method, as well as analysis and accurate interpretation of the results based on the BPVC rules. The bulkhead design was checked per ASME B&PV VIII.2, design-by-analysis, and showed that the assembly has met the criteria for protection against 1) plastic collapse, 2) local failure and 3) failure from ratcheting.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74293938","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Different Ways to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emission in Pipelines","authors":"Jun Zhang, John Anderton, A. Kane","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87391","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87391","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Pipelines are essential for keeping the lights on, homes warm, plants running, planes flying and water flowing. They also provide one of the safest means of transport. By taking some effective actions, they can contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emission significantly.\u0000 This paper explores a few ways for pipeline companies to help combat climate change.\u0000 There are of course hardware solutions, carbon capture at station equipment such as compressors or heat exchangers. Although undoubtably these solutions work, they are slow and expensive to implement. What we are going to look at are solutions that can be implemented by using existing software tools, or making a relatively small investment in a new software.\u0000 The first and most obvious way is the implementation of an effective leak detection program as defined in API 1175. The second way to reduce emission is through the optimization of fuel gas consumption by compressors. The third way is through the improvement of network operations.\u0000 With the move to hydrogen and renewable natural gas, pipeline simulation software can also help the pipeline industry to transit to greener energy, thus less emission.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"282 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85547079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Relative Risk of Alternating Current Power Line Faults Affecting Nearby Pipelines","authors":"Ryan Stewart, Devin Bear, Jason B. Skow","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87148","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87148","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The co-location of pipelines and alternating current (AC) transmission lines can lead to electrical hazards on a pipeline. One example is a transient voltage that electrifies a nearby pipeline during a power line to ground fault. A power line fault, typically caused by a lightning strike, cut power line, or windstorm, results in electrical potential being transferred to ground. A buried pipeline near a fault acts as a grounding conductor, carrying energy to an area of lower potential than the incident location. Current carried through a pipe is a hazard to people and equipment. A current travelling to an above ground structure could lead to an individual becoming part of an electrical circuit if they touch the structure and the possibility of a high electrical current flowing through an individual’s entire body.\u0000 While current literature describes how to mitigate the effects of power line faults, there are limited sources that describe a process to quantify the probability of power line faults affecting pipelines.\u0000 In this paper, a method to assess the frequency of AC powerline faults and their potential impact to pipeline infrastructure is described. The model incorporates spatial and historical factors to evaluate the exposure of individual assets to AC power line faults. It estimates the powerline fault frequency and the area of ground potential rise that could lead to safety consequences for workers or members of the public. The collection of fault frequency data, the calculation of fault current from transient voltage hazards, and the estimated area of potential harm from transient voltage hazards are discussed.\u0000 The model was developed to rank the risk of power line fault incidents across a company’s pipeline system. The results of the assessment help prioritize locations to perform more detailed site-specific analysis for the design and installation of mitigation systems.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84435660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Implementation and Validation of Reliability-Based Crack Assessment for Natural Gas Pipelines","authors":"W. Xiang, Shenwei Zhang, Jason Yan, Elvis Sanjuan Riverol, Kyle Myden","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87208","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87208","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Traditional in-line inspection (ILI)-based crack management programs use deterministic methods, where the calculated failure pressure ratio (FPR) and ILI-reported crack depth are compared with their respective thresholds. In recent years, TC Energy has developed a probabilistic crack assessment method, where annual probability of small leak (POSL) and probability of failure (POF, i.e., probability of burst) are evaluated. The mitigation plan is then made by comparing the annual POSL and POF with their respective thresholds. The advantage of the probabilistic method over deterministic method is that the former portrays reality better by explicitly accounting for the uncertainties associated with pipeline geometric and material properties, ILI-reported crack sizes, crack growth and burst pressure models.\u0000 This study demonstrates the safe implementation of the probabilistic assessment method for stress corrosion cracking (SCC) based on EMAT-reported ILI data and correlated dig data associated with three natural gas pipelines in Canada. Comprehensive validation was conducted by comparing the EMAT-based mitigation plan with the in-ditch assessment of a large set of dig data. Three key questions were addressed in the validation: (1) Does the probabilistic method capture all critical features identified in the field? (2) Whether the features avoided by the probabilistic method were unnecessary to excavate based on in-ditch assessment? (3) What is the benefit of the probabilistic method in comparison with the traditional deterministic method?\u0000 The examination indicates that the developed probabilistic assessment process captures all the critical SCC features identified in the field, and the digs avoided by the probabilistic method are confirmed to be unnecessary in the field. The result demonstrates that the reliability-based method can reduce a significant number of unnecessary digs without compromising safety.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"49 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79405668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Incorporating Measurement Uncertainty Into Machine Learning-Based Grade Predictions","authors":"Joel Anderson, N. Switzner, J. Kornuta, P. Veloo","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87347","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87347","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 As part of the regulations published in October of 2019, PHMSA requires operators that do not have reliable records to conduct material verification in accordance with §192.607. As part of the material verification process, §192.607(d)(2) compels the operator to “[c]onservatively account for measurement inaccuracy and uncertainty using reliable engineering tests and analyses” when utilizing nondestructive examination (NDE) methods. The Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) has completed extensive testing to develop approaches that utilize nondestructive measurements to estimate grade. As part of this work, a supervised classification machine learning (ML) model was developed to predict pipe grade using NDE chemical composition measurements as inputs. While using the ML-based model provides substantial improvement over yield strength (YS) in predicting pipe grade, measurement uncertainty from NDE tools must be considered per §192.607(d)(2). Moreover, some amount of uncertainty is present in any measurement regardless of precision, and this measurement uncertainty may ultimately affect the ML model’s pipe grade classification.\u0000 This paper presents a methodology for incorporating this variability into the authors’ ML classification model using a Monte Carlo-based simulation approach. In addition, this study will discuss the various metrics that were developed for interpreting the most probable pipe grade from the large number of simulation results, including the average probability, range of probability, and the number of simulations where each grade was identified as having the highest probability. Since any ML model can misclassify a sample and there are such slight differences between adjacent grades, it is necessary to have a method of systematically validating the results based on prior knowledge. Several case studies using field data will be presented to illustrate this approach, including validation cases where the pipe grade is known.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89574327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}