Risk Management最新文献

{"title":"Comprehensive Pipeline Record and Inspection Data Review and Assessment in Response to Safety Advisory on Girth Weld Strain-Induced Failures","authors":"Craig Arbeau, A. Clyne, A. Bhatia, A. Young","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87237","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87237","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Recent incidents outside Canada prompted the Canadian Energy Regulator (CER), the British Columbia Oil & Gas Commission (BCOGC) and the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) to advise pipeline operators regarding the possibility of girth weld strain-induced failures in high strength pipe. In early 2020, the CER issued a Safety Advisory (SA) relating to the possibility of girth weld strain-induced failures in high strength (Grade X 70 or higher) steel line pipe. There was a concern that similar incidents could occur in Canada, given comparable conditions. Furthermore, the SA stated that.... “The CER expects that regulated companies can demonstrate that longitudinal strains resulting from loadings such as those described in Section 4.2.4 of CSA Z662-19 [essentially external loading over and above typical operating loads] have been accounted for in the design, construction and operation of pipelines where strain could potentially accumulate in under-matched girth welds”.\u0000 With respect to the SA, the failure causes were consistently linked to combinations of:\u0000 i) high strength pipe with a minimum tensile strength exceeding actual weld strength values,\u0000 ii) girth weld HAZ softening as a result of the welding process,\u0000 iii) loads applied to the pipeline causing additional longitudinal strain, and\u0000 iv) pipes welded with a standard bevel and alignment of approximately 45° between the heat affected zone (HAZ) and the root bead.\u0000 Emera New Brunswick (Emera) initiated an assessment of the 30 inch diameter, 145 km long, API 5L Grade X70 Brunswick Pipeline that evaluated:\u0000 i) pipeline material, welding and construction records with respect to specified requirements, and\u0000 ii) the propensity of the pipeline to external loading via the analysis of repeat inertial measurement unit (IMU) data and a geohazard review of locations exhibiting bending strain to understand the stability of the pipeline in relation to potential external loading.\u0000 This paper describes the systematic approach taken to address the potential concerns, the key results and recommendations of the study and how Emera has incorporated those findings into processes within its management system and protection programs.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"109 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86753444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Considering Roadway Traffic in Quantitative Risk Assessment for Natural Gas Pipelines","authors":"D. Lu, T. Siraj, Karen Warhurst, Konstantinos Dimitriadis, Matt Towers","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87251","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87251","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Natural gas transmission pipeline systems can extend thousands of kilometers and traverse both populated and less populated areas. Traditionally, risk assessment of natural gas pipelines performed by TC Energy mostly focuses on evaluating the impact of pipeline failures to occupants of nearby structures. However, it is recognized that natural gas pipelines at road crossings or otherwise running in proximity to roads may also pose risks to motorists or other roadway users. Incidents of pipeline failures damaging road infrastructure, resulting in casualties, have been seen in the past.\u0000 This paper reports work undertaken to investigate the risk assessment of natural gas transmission pipelines considering the consequence of pipeline failures to roadway users in addition to occupants of nearby structures. Differences between how pipeline failure consequences should be evaluated for motorists travelling at a high speed in vehicles versus occupants of non-moving structures were investigated. Relevant factors that are unique to consequence assessment for roads, such as vehicle speed and relative position between roads and pipelines, were identified, and the way in which these unique factors can be incorporated in risk assessment was studied.\u0000 Based on the results from the study, TC Energy updated its System Wide Risk Assessment program to include consequence of pipeline failures associated with roads and roadway users. Data from a total of over 180,000 km of roadway segments across North America that are located in proximity to TC Energy’s over 90,000 km of natural gas transmission pipelines were analyzed. The societal risk with and without roads were evaluated and compared. The impact of considering roadway traffic in the risk assessment in different areas was assessed and the importance of proper consideration of roadway users in quantitative pipeline risk assessment was demonstrated. The methodology developed in the study is useful in advancing the overall accuracy of risk assessment for the pipeline industry, and particularly for pipeline operators in the US, provides a quantitative assessment tool to evaluate the risks associated with roadway driven Moderate Consequence Areas (MCA) and prioritize the integrity work accordingly.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"61 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83912958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling Accidental Impact Threats to Natural Gas Storage Wells","authors":"Shawn Smith, A. Fraser, Mari Shironishi, Danny Neville, Daniel Shapiro","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-86734","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-86734","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 API RP 1171, which was recently incorporated by reference in US regulation 49 CFR 192.12, and the recent changes to the California Code of Regulations have mandated risk assessments be performed for underground storage wells. A quantitative risk assessment framework has been developed for SoCalGas’s underground gas storage sites in California. This framework includes quantitative models for accidental impact threats to the wellhead and lateral piping, including damage from excavations, vehicle collisions, lifting operations, and aircraft crashes (for first, second, and third-parties). In an industry survey of underground storage operators conducted by the Gas Research Institute in 2004, 15% of the recorded significant release incidents were due to accidental impact threats. Additionally, since there are likely individuals in the immediate vicinity when the incidents occur, releases due to accidental impact threats may carry more significant consequences. In this work, models were adapted from existing industry models for pipelines, nuclear facilities, and aboveground piping stations by updating the inputs to reflect an underground gas storage context and calibrating the overall results to match historical underground gas storage incident data. The models incorporate well-specific attributes and measurements as well as subject matter expert (SME) experience and judgement, with key variables for each model including:\u0000 • Excavation damage: excavation frequency (estimated from site-specific one-call data), material and operational properties of buried lateral piping, depth of cover\u0000 • Vehicle collisions: vehicle traffic near the well (estimated from modelling the site road network and all site activities involving vehicles), presence of any barriers, the layout of any aboveground lateral piping\u0000 • Lifting operations: lifting operation frequency near the well (estimated from modelling the future workover activities at all nearby wells), material and operational properties of the wellhead, and any aboveground lateral piping\u0000 • Aircraft crashes: proximity and orientation relative to nearby airports, amount and type of traffic at the nearby airports, the layout of the lateral piping\u0000 This paper illustrates the results for field-wide assessments of these accidental impact threats, showing how the risk is differentiated by the specific well context. In contrast to using a single historical incident rate, the models capture the differences in risk between wells within and across fields and can help estimate the effect of performing mitigation activities on specific wells.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87776763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Settlement Risk Assessment and Monitoring for Direct Pipe® Construction Beneath Critical Infrastructure","authors":"Urso A. Campos, J. L. Robison, Gary W. Castleberry, Amin Azimi","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87129","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87129","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Direct Pipe® (DP) is an innovative trenchless construction method that combines aspects of micro-tunneling and horizontal directional drilling (HDD). In the DP method, ground excavation and pipeline installation are simultaneous. In this method, the jacking frame in micro-tunneling is replaced with a pipe thruster and coupling is eliminated. Additionally, reaming the bore hole, which is common with the HDD method, is eliminated. The DP method of construction is typically applied when subsurface conditions beneath a surficial obstacle are not conducive for the HDD method of construction due to final hole diameter, granular soils, and/or high risks of hydraulic fracture leading to inadvertent drilling fluid returns. During tunneling operations, the microtunneling boring machine (MTBM) excavates a space or tunnel that is typically a few to several centimeters larger in radius than the jacking pipe; which is thrust into place continuously behind the TBM. This overcut annular space and the potential, occasional temporary extraction of the MTBM and jacking pipe represent settlement risks during construction. For this reason, the pipeline construction team should consider assessing settlement risks associated with DP construction, and subsequently prepare and deploy a settlement monitoring plan during the pipeline construction phase, particularly where the proposed DP alignment will cross railroad, highway, and/or other sensitive features that may be adversely affected by settlement. This paper presents an adopted settlement risk assessment and monitoring plan for a recent trenchless crossing where the DP method of construction was utilized to install a pipeline section beneath two major interstates and a railroad outside of Washington D.C., United States. The paper also includes a Finite Element Analysis (FEA) using Plaxis software with the purpose of exploring the time variable in settlement analysis. Furthermore, the paper expands on the planning characteristics of settlement monitoring utilized during construction, which consisted of conventional surveying and vehicle-mounted LiDAR scanning.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90829506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Framework for Pipeline Stress Corrosion Cracking Susceptibility Using Inspection & Mitigation Results: A Bayesian Approach","authors":"Oleg Shabarchin, S. Koduru, S. Hassanien","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87372","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87372","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Stress Corrosion Cracking (SCC) is a form of cracking caused by interaction of a susceptible material, tensile stress, and a suitable environment. Considering recent SCC failures in pipelines coupled with increasingly stringent regulatory requirements, it is imperative for an operator to have an effective SCC integrity management program. To accomplish this, it is essential for the program to not only integrate multiple interacting factors that influence SCC, but also incorporate evidence from program mitigation actions. This paper presents a framework based on Bayesian approach to incorporate multiple lines of evidence while transparently treating associated uncertainty to estimate a more representative SCC occurrence and corresponding SCC failure rate. Knowledge gathered from industry SCC management best practices and SCC susceptibility models are used in conjunction with expert knowledge and ILI findings to develop the proposed framework. The framework consists of two components; first, SCC susceptibility is established to quantify the SCC occurrence rate on a pipeline. Second, field evidence is incorporated into the framework using Bayesian updating to refine the initial estimates of segment specific SCC occurrence and failure rate. The approach provides a significant flexibility to update the proposed model at any maturity level of the program as additional data becomes available.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"66 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89571437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimizing Blended Hydrogen Uniformity Within Natural Gas Pipeline Distribution Networks","authors":"Guohua Li, M. Moyer, Hamid O. Bidmus","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87097","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87097","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Blending hydrogen into existing natural gas pipeline distribution networks is becoming prominent in the alternative energy industry. Non-uniformity of the hydrogen concentration can occur in the blends delivered at the demand locations of these networks. The non-uniformity can significantly reduce the total hydrogen blending capacity of the whole network due to concentration limitations of industrial and household equipment or materials. Thus, maximizing hydrogen uniformity can become a necessity in the modeling and design of some hydrogen blended natural gas distribution networks where multiple supplies exist but hydrogen can’t be injected at each supply site.\u0000 This paper introduces a methodology to optimize blended hydrogen uniformity. The methodology is illustrated using a hypothetical natural gas distribution network. A natural gas supply tracing study is conducted to establish the order of priority of the supply sources in a demand area. A hydrogen and natural gas blending and parametric study is then carried out to determine a ranking for priority selection of the hydrogen injection sites. Subsequently, an operational optimization study is performed to minimize the number of hydrogen injection sites and maximize the volume of the hydrogen injected.\u0000 Using the hypothetical natural gas distribution network, a cost and benefit analysis is performed. The relationship between the total costs and the total hydrogen injection flow rates, as a function of the number of hydrogen injection sites, are tabled and plotted.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90995446","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis of Dynamic System Risks Where Pipelines Cross Slow-Moving Landslides","authors":"M. Porter, Joel Van Hove, P. Barlow","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-86982","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-86982","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Pipelines are often constructed across dormant or normally slow-moving landslides. The potential for pipeline failure in response to landslide movement depends on several factors. These include the likelihoods of different landslide velocities being realized, the probabilities that movements physically impact the pipeline, the capacity of the pipeline to accommodate landslide displacements, and the ability of operators to detect and respond to deteriorating conditions. Each of these factors is difficult to predict but estimating the probabilities of landslide velocity transitions is particularly challenging.\u0000 In this paper we review a conceptual approach to predict landslide velocity and displacement using Markov chains that combine geomorphic evidence of long-term landslide behaviour with current estimates or measurements of landslide velocity. A framework is proposed to combine time-dependent estimates of landslide displacement and the deterioration of pipeline strain capacity to estimate the probability of pipeline failure over time and in response to potential changes in landslide velocity. The expected efficacy of monitoring programs and trigger action response plans is accounted for in the vulnerability model.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"42 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86424950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ranking Models for Managing the Integrity of Ageing Pipelines","authors":"Luca Bacchi, Marco Medoro, Giampaolo Annoni","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87195","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87195","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 SNAM operates more than 29,000 km of gas transmission pipelines in Italy. The pipelines have diameters up to 56″, with different MAOP up to 75 bar. The oldest ones were built in the 40s and new ones are nowadays under construction.\u0000 Italy, like most of the European countries, is characterized by a high level of anthropic presence on the territory; moreover, many pipelines cross the country from south to north, passing through the Appennini mountains, where there are many areas with geological instabilities (landslides).\u0000 Different pipelines can have different features, issues and challenges, but, for all of them, the TSO must guarantee a high level of safety in terms of structural integrity.\u0000 In such a scenario, a TSO must tackle many questions in order to properly manage the integrity of its pipelines that compose the complex asset that is the whole network: where do I need to do local actions? Is there any pipeline that is convenient to totally replace? Which ones of the existing unpiggable pipelines should I invest to make piggable? Is there a way to establish the priorities for all these actions?\u0000 SNAM built two tools to prioritize such actions on all its pipelines: the first tool is a model able to produce a ranking of all the pipelines as a function of the technical convenience for their replacement, the second tool is a model that produce a ranking of all the pipelines as a function of the technical convenience to make them piggable. Both the models provide numerical and objective tools, based on technical local data of the pipelines and of the territorial context, that can be applied at once to the whole network and that help the TSO in the strategical decision making oriented to the best management of the integrity of the ageing asset.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"78 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74860903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Quantitative Risk Modelling of Pipeline Systems","authors":"Daryl Bandstra, J. S. Rojas, A. Fraser, Mari Shironishi","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87258","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87258","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Over the past decade, machine learning models have enabled significant technical achievements in a variety of fields, however the application of these models is an area of active research and development in conventional and regulated industries, which are often more cautious to adopt new technologies. In this paper, a case study is presented where various statistical and machine learning models, including logistic regression, random forest, gradient-boosted decision trees, and artificial neural networks are trained and validated using a historical incident record dataset to quantify the probability of pipe failure on a distribution pipeline system. The relative performance of each model type is compared against a held-out test dataset using an evaluation framework that utilizes lift charts to quantify each model’s performance. Observed strengths and limitations of the different model types are discussed with respect to performance, interpretability, and ease of incorporating additional data, along with key considerations for fitting and evaluating models. Additional case studies are also presented to illustrate how model performance depends on the quantity of training data and predictor features. These additional cases illustrate the benefit of continually collecting and leveraging asset data, as well as the benefit of augmenting existing asset data with external datasets, such as those obtained from public geospatial datasets. The results of this study will provide operators with additional insights and guidance in developing and evaluating machine learning models for pipeline risk assessment and integrity management.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"63 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75030052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characterization of Through-Wall Cracks and Resulting Leakage Rates in Pipelines","authors":"E. Ebrahimnia, S. Prasad, A. Virk, Khurram Shahzad, Muntaseer Kainat, S. Akonko","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87262","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87262","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Major challenges are foreseen in quantitative risk assessment of ILI detected crack-related features for thin-wall pipelines due to disproportionate ILI sizing uncertainties relative to pipe wall thickness. Therefore, the likelihood of defects growing into through-wall cracks, leading to product leakage, even at relatively low operating pressures needs to be considered in thin-wall pipelines. To support quantifying the risk associated with operating such pipelines, leak rate simulations were conducted to help with the release consequence assessment and risk ranking of ILI reported crack features to design an appropriate mitigation plan.\u0000 Finite element analysis (FEA) and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods were used to determine the physical characteristics of through-wall cracks and the resulting leakage rates. The study highlights that, for a given fluid, the threshold for leak occurrence and the leakage rate depend primarily on the crack geometry and the operational pressure. CFD simulation results for the sensitivity cases modelled in this study showed that the leak rate can become very significant as the crack opening and internal pressure increase. These CFD results were then compared with the results obtained from a closed-form analytical model. It was determined that the analytical model started to deviate from the CFD results as the internal pressure increased and the crack opening became larger. This was explained by the fact that the analytical model was intended to be used for single-phase flow under laminar, isothermal conditions. Since its applicability to the turbulent flow regime has not been established, the deviation between the CFD results and the analytical results suggests that the use of the analytical model in the turbulent flow regime could greatly underestimate the leak rate. In addition, the importance of the design of experiment, and proper modeling of turbulence and crack surface roughness in the leakage rate estimation was demonstrated.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79573485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}