Demography and social economy最新文献

{"title":"Inequality in the Face of Death under Covid-19 in Ukraine","authors":"Pavlo Shevchuk","doi":"10.15407/dse2023.02.040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2023.02.040","url":null,"abstract":"If there is a decline in mortality, it is mainly in younger age groups. As a result, more and more deaths are occurring in older age groups. In advanced societies, therefore, people are becoming “more equal in the face of death”. A sharp increase in mortality, such as that caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, affects different age groups of the population to different degrees. It is therefore relevant to study the change in inequality of life expectancy under the conditions of a sudden shock. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the inequality of lifespan variation in Ukraine in 2020—2021 and to compare it with countries with different levels of mortality. Previous studies of lifespan variation specifically devoted to Ukraine, or those that used data for Ukraine, were conducted or related to the pre-Covid period. The novelty of this work is the study of the behaviour of indicators characterising the inequality of lifespan before and during the two years of the epidemic, for which data are available. The demographic me t hod for constructing life tables and statistical methods for calculating lifespan variation indicators were used. Those are: Gini coefficient, average inter-individual difference in length of life, lifespan disparity, entropy of the life table, standard deviation of age at death, coefficient of variation. These indicators were calculated for the period 1989—2021 for Ukraine, Poland, Sweden, Spain, Japan, and England and Wales. It was confirmed that life expectancy is generally inversely related to inequality in the life table. It was found that this rule can be violated during mortality shocks such as the Covid-19 pandemic. It is shown that male life expectancy and lifespan inequality in Ukraine decreased in 2020—2021. Average inter-individual difference in length of life and lifespan disparity have decreased by 6.6—6.9 %. On the other hand, almost all indicators of inequality for women have increased. The life expectancy elasticity indicator (entropy of the life table) turned out to be the most sensitive, increasing to 4.9 %. At the same time, it is interesting to note that the standard deviation of age at death for women in Ukraine decreased by 1.8 %. The Covid-19 pandemic has affected inequality depending on sex and the country’s pre-Covid level. Inequality indicators in Japan have hardly changed. Inequality rates rose in Spain and Sweden before returning to their previous downward trend. Available data for England and Wales suggest a continued slow trend towards greater inequality.","PeriodicalId":210079,"journal":{"name":"Demography and social economy","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124922620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impact of Objective and Subjective Factors on Fertility in Times of Uncertainty","authors":"I. Kurylo, Svitlana Aksyonova","doi":"10.15407/dse2023.02.021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2023.02.021","url":null,"abstract":"The article examines a complex of objective and subjective factors that determine fertility on a macro and micro level, as well as the specificity of their relationships during periods of uncertainty. The purpose of this study is to identify objective and subjective factors of fertility, analyze the relationships between them, and the characteristics of their influence under conditions of socio-economic and military-political uncertainty in Ukraine. To accomplish this, a range of methods were employed, including systematization and generalization, critical evaluation of scientific progress in the relevant field, categorization, conceptual modeling of factors affecting demographic processes (reproductive behavior and fertility), structural-logical analysis, comparative analysis and others. The novelty of the work lies in identifying the nature of the influence of objective and subjective factors, their interrelationships and role in the determination of fertility on a macro and micro level in conditions of uncertainty. Objective and subjective factors are interrelated and, depending on the context and level of fertility determination (macro or micro level), their significance and the nature of influence differ. The specificity of the relationship between objective and subjective factors of fertility is reflected in the “transition” of ones into others at various levels. The influence of objective factors on fertility is mostly mediated and occurs through subjective perception by individuals of any particular objective factors and circumstances. Subjective perceptions at the micro level are characterized by variability and may not coincide with the nature of changes in objective factors. In conditions of uncertainty and social upheavals (such as economic crisis, pandemic, war, etc.), discrepancies increase, and the influence of the subjective in fertility determination increases and takes on special characteristics. One manifestation of this is the increased role of expectations for the future (narratives of the future) in reproductive decision-making. Positive narratives about the future, reinforced by the implementation of measures to improve the quality of life for the population in a free democratic space, could become a driving force for increasing birth rate in Ukraine, parti - cularly for strengthening the compensatory effect in its dynamics after the war.","PeriodicalId":210079,"journal":{"name":"Demography and social economy","volume":"100 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120958883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Social Capital of the Territorial Communities of Ukraine in the Conditions of War: Current Transformations and Forecasted Changes","authors":"O. Dyakonenko","doi":"10.15407/dse2023.02.054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2023.02.054","url":null,"abstract":"The relevance of the study of current and forecasted transformations of the social capital of territorial communities is due to the need to strengthen social capital at the local level as a means of consolidating the population in the conditions of the destabilizing pressure of war and the risks of reducing the regulatory capabilities of state administration. The purpose of the study is to reveal the transformational shifts in the social capital of the territorial communities of Ukraine in the war and post-war periods. The scientific novelty of the work consists in revealing the peculiarities of the influence of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the humanitarian crisis caused by it on the trends of the development of social capital of the territorial communities of Ukraine. Forecasting of social capital transformations is based on the use of systemic approach, methods of abstraction and generalization, modeling, and scenario forecasting of time series. The use of the scenario approach is due to the low predictability and instability of military actions and includes realistic, optimistic, and pessimistic forecast versions. The prediction according to the realistic version is based on the assumption of building up the potential of social capital by the communities of the country and, above all, the territories freed from temporary occupation. It is substantiated that social capital will grow mainly within the community and to a lesser extent outside it, which is due to the residents’ need to identify themselves with the community and its values in conditions of threat to life. The surge of social capital and high motivation of the population will be manifested in the active participation of residents in the public life of territorial communities and the post-war reconstruction of the economy. The trends of the social capital transformation are substantiated for three groups of communities: temporarily occupied territories, territorial communities of the «near rear», and communities of the «deep rear». The optimistic version is based on the assumption that in the forecast period, the transformation of social capital will take place in the conditions of the successful end of hostilities and the liberation of the territory of Ukraine from the occupying forces. It is expected that in the conditions of the post-war reconstruction of communities, the multiplier effect of increasing financial capacity will have a positive impact on the social capital of the community and will manifest itself in the strengthening of the residents’ sense of social protection and the reduction of the economic anxiety level. According to the pessimistic version, the transformation of the social capital of territorial communities will take place in the conditions of a repeated massive offensive of Russian troops and the capture of new territories, which may cause a decrease in the level of trust between residents in the struggle for limited resources, discord, and a decrease in ci","PeriodicalId":210079,"journal":{"name":"Demography and social economy","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115314030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Poverty of the Ukrainian Pensioners: Pre-War Situation and Influence of the War","authors":"S. Polіakova, Yurii Kohatko","doi":"10.15407/dse2023.02.092","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2023.02.092","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of the article is to determine the level of poverty among Ukrainian pensioners, assess deprivations, including those in different types of settlements, and forecast the impact of full-scale military actions on the increase in monetary poverty. Studying poverty among pensioners during wartime is very important, as retirement age is a time in life when a person can no longer ensure a stable income, except for their pension, and requires access to healthcare and various social services. Military actions in some parts of Ukraine make normal existence impossible and critically exacerbate the problem of poverty, while in other areas, they significantly increase the poverty level due to a general decline in the standard of living. Various methods are used to study poverty among pensioners in Ukraine, both specialized and general scientific methods. The monographic method, bibliometrics, and content analysis are used for preliminary study of the problem. The computational method, forecasting, and modeling are used to forecast the impact of full-scale military actions on the growth of monetary poverty. The scale of pre-war poverty levels among Ukrainian pensioners, including self-assessment, has been assessed. In 2021, 26.3 % of urban and 29.2 % of rural pensioner households were classified as poor according to the relative criterion. On average, 23.4 % of households across the country were classified as poor. The level of poverty has been determined based on deprivations. The poverty level based on deprivation indicators in different types of settlements (share of households experiencing 4 or more deprivations) in 2020 was 2.6 times higher in rural areas compared to the corresponding indicator in cities. Deprivations among Ukrainian pensioners have been assessed in terms of types of settlements. Forecasts for poverty among Ukrainian pensioners have been provided based on the absolute criterion of expenses below the actual subsistence minimum. According to the forecasts of experts from the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, in 2023, the share of the population living on less than the actual subsistence minimum will increase by 1.7 times throughout the country, compared to 2021, and reach 67.8 %. Taking into account the fact that the poverty level among pensioners, especially older people, significantly exceeds the average indicators for the country from year to year, the majority of elderly people — 76.4 % in cities and 83 % in rural areas — will fall into the category of poor.","PeriodicalId":210079,"journal":{"name":"Demography and social economy","volume":"62 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133341407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Housing Affordability Issues in Ukraine","authors":"Valerii Novikov, Anna Hvelesiani","doi":"10.15407/dse2023.02.072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2023.02.072","url":null,"abstract":"The article is dedicated to the analysis of population’s housing provision in Ukraine and its certain regions considering the methodological features of assessing housing affordability indicators, as well as the losses in the housing stock as a result of military invasion. The purpose of the paper is the methodological determination of housing affordability indicator, assessment of its pre-war trend in Ukraine; and determination of an acceptable for modern conditions institutional mechanism for improving housing affordability based on the principle of rent. The novelty of the research is the substantiation of use of permanent housing lease mechanism. These schemes can be implemented at the state and regional levels with the direct participation of investors and local self-government bodies within the framework of public-private partnerships. In the paper the pros and cons of the current mechanisms of housing construction and obtaining are identified; prospective directions and possible financial mechanisms for state housing policy implementation in the current condition of construction industry and population welfare are shown. Research methods are the following: correlational, analog, time series for the analysis of regional differentiation of housing affordability in Ukraine. Housing affordability has become much more complicated due to the need to restore damaged and destroyed dwellings. In view of current situation, prospective dynamics of living area commissioning indicator aimed at bringing the level of housing provision of Ukrainian citizens closer to the indicators of European countries was determined. In the absence of official housing purchase estimates at the national level, the ratio of median cost per square meter of living area to the median wage was used as the housing affordability ratio. The housing affordability ratio for the regions of Ukraine was calculated. According to the generally accepted classification of housing markets by affordability criterion, the purchase of housing in the country is significantly complicated. The correlation between the housing affordability indicator and the living area commissioning indicator was calculated, which was negative and indicated that the regional programs for providing the population with housing are critically unsatisfactory. The positive and negative features of the financial instruments for ensuring the housing affordability for the population and their compliance with the strategic goals of the housing policy development were determined. The financial and organizational mechanism of lease as a target vector for providing the population with housing was proposed.","PeriodicalId":210079,"journal":{"name":"Demography and social economy","volume":"90 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125124878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Ukrainian Family in the Conditions of War","authors":"L. Slyusar","doi":"10.15407/dse2023.02.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2023.02.003","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study is to determine the problems and risks for the Ukrainian family, which is the basic institution of society, in the conditions of the Russia’s war against Ukraine, and its role in preserving the human potential of country. The study is based on information from open sources, expert assessments, data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, and sample survey materials. The research was carried out using such methods as comparative analysis, generalization and induction, survey, system approach. The family is a primary and main center of society, which ensures the physical (biological) and sociocultural reproduction of generations of the human community. In recent decades, the development of the family in Ukraine took place in the same direction as in other European countries. Russia’s war against Ukraine deformed the natural processes of life and development of the Ukrainian family. Great human losses, the destruction of the environment necessary for life (housing, social and economic infrastructure, natural environment), forced mass migration made it extremely difficult to implement the main specific functions of the family (child-bearing, upbringing, and maintenance of children), but activated its protective function. Family practices in the conditions of war and forced migration testify to powerful family ties and their special importance in the crisis period. In the conditions of war and the socio-economic disorganization caused by the war, family becomes a support: family solidarity, mutual assistance, care, the exchange of activities and material resources between family members allow to sustain living, and sometimes to protect life. A significant part of the forced migrants, who left the dangerous areas, receive assistance, and often move to relatives in safe regions of the country. Socio-psychological functions of the family acquire protective character. At the same time, the war aggravated the problems of Ukrainian family and provoked new risks. The consequence of the full-scale war was the reduction and deformation of the marriage potential and negative changes in the marriage and family structure of the population: an increase in the number of widowed; single-parent families and families where children live without parents with relatives; single people of the oldest age. The increase in the number of orphans and children deprived of parental care (whose parents have died, are in captivity, forcibly deported, their whereabouts are unknown, etc.) is one of the most serious consequences of the war. Weakening of marital relations due to mobilization and large-scale migration with gender disproportions may lead to an increase in divorce rates in the future. An increase in the number of single-child families among families with children is to be expected, although its significant growth was a problem even in the pre-war years. The changes in the Ukrainian family may be fully understood only a few years after the ","PeriodicalId":210079,"journal":{"name":"Demography and social economy","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116659333","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global Social Risks in the Field of Labor: Lack of Decent Employment in Ukraine","authors":"I. Novak, Inesa Zhuk","doi":"10.15407/dse2023.02.110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2023.02.110","url":null,"abstract":"The article is devoted to the study of decent employment in Ukraine in the context of global social risks in the field of labor. Based on the generalization of approaches to understanding global risks, the concepts of decent work, and sustainable human development, the lack of decent employment is considered one of the manifestations of the crisis in the field of employment, which is characterized by wage stagnation, the growth of unemployment and underemployment, geographical or sectoral mismatches between the demand and supply of labor force etc. The purpose of this article is to study decent employment in Ukraine in the context of global social risks in the field of labor, to identify the main problems that cause a lack of decent employment, the solution of which is necessary to ensure sustainable human development and post-war recovery of the country, to realize the prospects of European integration. The scientific novelty of the study is the substantiation of the methodological approach to the study of decent employment in the context of global social risks in the field of labor based on the analysis of such components as inadequate employment, forced underemployment for economic reasons, and informal employment. To achieve the defined goal, the following research methods are applied: comparative and statistical analysis of data, graphical method of presenting results — for quantitative assessment and research of decent employment; methods of system approach, logical analysis, induction and deduction, generalization and analogy — when substantiating and developing a methodological approach to the study of decent employment in Ukraine in the context of global social risks in the field of labor. On the basis of national data on labor statistics from statistical observations of enterprises, as well as a sample survey of the workforce, the dynamics of inadequate employment, forced underemployment for economic reasons, and informal employment were analyzed, in particular at sectoral and regional levels. It has been established that the main problems that cause a lack of decent employment in Ukraine are: an increase in inadequate employment with low wages in agriculture, forestry, and fishing, as well as in the field of providing services, information, and telecommunications; high level of forced underemployment in industry and increased loss of working time despite overcoming the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic; lack of choice at the lower level of entering the informal labor market for rural women, young people, and people of retirement age.","PeriodicalId":210079,"journal":{"name":"Demography and social economy","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114700237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Targeting of Social Programs at Vulnerable Groups: Sustainable Trends and Post-War Prospects","authors":"L. Cherenko","doi":"10.15407/dse2023.01.073","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2023.01.073","url":null,"abstract":"The main problem of Ukrainian social support system for many years was insufficient targeting of social programs at the most vulnerable sections of the population. Significant impoverishment of the country’s population and expansion of the range of vulnerable contingents as a result of the war exacerbates the problem of allocating limited resources to the most needy. Delaying the solution of this problem during the period of hostilities and post-war reconstruction will have a negative, and in some cases, a destructive impact on society, both in the context of observing the principles of social justice and effective support of people in difficult times, and in the context of the risks of slowdown in economic growth. The purpose of the article is to assess the pre-war system of social support in the context of its targeting at vulnerable sections of the population in order to find better ways and opportunities for post-war reform. The novelty of the work consists in the combination of assessments of the scale of diverse vulnerability with assessments of the targeting of active social programs at groups with higher vulnerability and/or larger numbers. Such an assessment will make it possible to determine not only to what extent this or that program reaches the target contingents or the poor, but also to what extent it reaches each vulnerable group. Such a tool would be more effective in determining the shortcomings of existing programs, developing ways to reform them, or making a decision to replace them with new ones. In addition, forecast estimates for 2023 regarding the introduction of the new universal social assistance planned by government officials were made in the work for the first time. Research methods. Along with the generally accepted methods of statistical analysis, the research used the micromodeling method to work with the micro-data of the survey of the living conditions of households in Ukraine and to forecast the parameters of social programs for 2023. To evaluate the indicators of the impact of social programs, a special program module ADePT, developed by the World Bank for unified methodical support of the analysis of the social support system, was used.","PeriodicalId":210079,"journal":{"name":"Demography and social economy","volume":"163 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131040607","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Humanitarian Action in the Conditions of War in Ukraine","authors":"O. Khmelevska","doi":"10.15407/dse2023.01.096","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2023.01.096","url":null,"abstract":"This article is devoted to the study of humanitarian action of the international and national actors in Ukraine. The urgency of the work is driven by the deepening of the humanitarian crisis against the background of the continuation of the active phase of the Russia-Ukraine war. The purpose of the article is to generalize the contextual changes of humanitarian action in Ukraine, including institutional, sectoral, managerial and other aspects. The novelty of the study consists in the formulation of proposals for the activation of humanitarian action in Ukraine at the national and local levels, which are rethought through the prism of the international humanitarian system and the features of humanitarian response in Ukraine. The desk research of open sources which is supported by a review of the latest thematic publications, operational summaries, data sets and their analysis is used for this purpose. An overview of the modern international humanitarian system, the main tools and mechanisms of humanitarian response is provided. International and domestic categorical apparatuses in the field of humanitarian action are compared. New dimensions of the humanitarian crisis, systemic challenges and operational problems of humanitarian response that arose after February 24, 2022 in Ukraine are summarized. The funding for humanitarian needs of Ukraine over the past decade has been analyzed, including interagency response plans for Ukraine for 2022 (the Flash Appeal and the Regional Refugee Response Plan). The humanitarian response at the international and national levels has been studied. It has been concluded that humanitarian action in Ukraine is based on reliable tools, mechanisms and models of the international humanitarian system, as well as on its own humanitarian traditions and initiatives. Together, they ensure the effectiveness and efficiency of humanitarian response and contribute to unprecedented financial support for Ukraine in the global dimension. Thanks to this, in a fairly short time, a new space for humanitarian action began to form in Ukraine, in which the presence of international and national humanitarian actors was expanded and the interaction of humanitarian actors was improved.","PeriodicalId":210079,"journal":{"name":"Demography and social economy","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115486131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How Temporary is Temporary Protection: the Example of Forced Migrants From the Former Yugoslavia","authors":"О. Malynovska","doi":"10.15407/dse2023.01.053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2023.01.053","url":null,"abstract":"About 5 million Ukrainians, forced to flee from the aggression of the Russian Federation, enjoy temporary protection in European countries. The legal basis for its provision is the Directive adopted by the EU in 2001 based on the experience gained as a result of the mass arrival of war refugees from the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s. Therefore, when studying the prospects of staying abroad and the return of forced migrants as an important component of the post-war recovery of Ukraine, despite the awareness of the vagueness of any historical analogies, it is useful to analyze what happened to war refugees from Yugoslavia after the end of active hostilities in the Balkans, which is the purpose of this article. To achieve it, historical and comparative methods are used, as well as other methods of scientific research. Despite the large volume of literature devoted to forced displacement in Yugoslavia, active analytical and research work on the study of the situation of Ukrainian displaced persons abroad, comparative approach to the analysis of these two phenomena was not applied, which determines the novelty of this work. As a result, it provides grounds for several important conclusions. Firstly, the protection enjoyed by Ukrainians in Europe is temporary and its cancellation or expiration can be sudden and unexpected for refugees. This can lead to an unprepared return or the risk of being abroad in an irregular legal situation. Secondly, after the termination of temporary protection, the situation of Ukrainians in different states may differ radically depending on whether the host country is interested in granting displaced persons the status of permanent residents or not. Thirdly, when deciding the future fate of war refugees, the host country will, of course, take into account humanitarian considerations, but most likely will use a pragmatic selective approach, i.e. will grant the status of permanent resident primarily to those refugees who have successfully integrated, are not a burden, but, on the contrary, an additional resource for the development. Thus, the policy of host countries, as well as the situation in Ukraine and the personal circumstances of particular individuals, will be an important factor in the post-war repatriation of forced migrants, its intensity and timing. In this regard, the foreign policy component of the state’s migration policy, the discussion and joint development with foreign states of measures to promote the return and reintegration of displaced persons, should be significantly intensified.","PeriodicalId":210079,"journal":{"name":"Demography and social economy","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122258781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}