Poverty of the Ukrainian Pensioners: Pre-War Situation and Influence of the War

The purpose of the article is to determine the level of poverty among Ukrainian pensioners, assess deprivations, including those in different types of settlements, and forecast the impact of full-scale military actions on the increase in monetary poverty. Studying poverty among pensioners during wartime is very important, as retirement age is a time in life when a person can no longer ensure a stable income, except for their pension, and requires access to healthcare and various social services. Military actions in some parts of Ukraine make normal existence impossible and critically exacerbate the problem of poverty, while in other areas, they significantly increase the poverty level due to a general decline in the standard of living. Various methods are used to study poverty among pensioners in Ukraine, both specialized and general scientific methods. The monographic method, bibliometrics, and content analysis are used for preliminary study of the problem. The computational method, forecasting, and modeling are used to forecast the impact of full-scale military actions on the growth of monetary poverty. The scale of pre-war poverty levels among Ukrainian pensioners, including self-assessment, has been assessed. In 2021, 26.3 % of urban and 29.2 % of rural pensioner households were classified as poor according to the relative criterion. On average, 23.4 % of households across the country were classified as poor. The level of poverty has been determined based on deprivations. The poverty level based on deprivation indicators in different types of settlements (share of households experiencing 4 or more deprivations) in 2020 was 2.6 times higher in rural areas compared to the corresponding indicator in cities. Deprivations among Ukrainian pensioners have been assessed in terms of types of settlements. Forecasts for poverty among Ukrainian pensioners have been provided based on the absolute criterion of expenses below the actual subsistence minimum. According to the forecasts of experts from the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, in 2023, the share of the population living on less than the actual subsistence minimum will increase by 1.7 times throughout the country, compared to 2021, and reach 67.8 %. Taking into account the fact that the poverty level among pensioners, especially older people, significantly exceeds the average indicators for the country from year to year, the majority of elderly people — 76.4 % in cities and 83 % in rural areas — will fall into the category of poor.