战争条件下乌克兰领土社区的社会资本:当前的转变和预测的变化

O. Dyakonenko
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引用次数: 0

摘要

研究领土社区社会资本的当前和预测转变的相关性是由于需要加强地方一级的社会资本,作为在战争不稳定压力和降低国家行政管理监管能力风险的条件下巩固人口的手段。本研究的目的是揭示乌克兰领土社区的社会资本在战争和战后时期的转型转变。这项工作的科学新颖性在于揭示了俄乌战争及其造成的人道主义危机对乌克兰领土社区社会资本发展趋势的影响的特殊性。社会资本转型的预测是基于系统方法、抽象与泛化方法、建模方法和时间序列情景预测方法。情景方法的使用是由于军事行动的低可预测性和不稳定性,包括现实的、乐观的和悲观的预测版本。现实主义版本的预测是基于这样一个假设,即该国各社区,尤其是从临时占领中解放出来的领土建立社会资本的潜力。事实证明,社会资本将主要在社区内增长,而在社区外增长的程度较小,这是由于居民在生命受到威胁的情况下需要认同社区及其价值观。社会资本的激增和人口的高度积极性将表现为居民积极参与领土社区的公共生活和战后的经济重建。社会资本转型的趋势在三种类型的社区中得到证实:临时占领区、“近后方”的领土社区和“深后方”的社区。乐观的版本是基于这样一个假设,即在预测期内,社会资本的转变将在敌对行动成功结束和乌克兰领土从占领军手中解放的条件下发生。预计在战后社区重建的条件下,增加财政能力的乘数效应将对社区的社会资本产生积极影响,并将表现为居民社会保护意识的增强和经济焦虑水平的降低。根据悲观的版本,领土社区社会资本的转变将发生在俄罗斯军队反复大规模进攻和占领新领土的条件下,这可能导致居民之间在争夺有限资源的斗争中信任水平下降,不和,公民参与减少。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Social Capital of the Territorial Communities of Ukraine in the Conditions of War: Current Transformations and Forecasted Changes
The relevance of the study of current and forecasted transformations of the social capital of territorial communities is due to the need to strengthen social capital at the local level as a means of consolidating the population in the conditions of the destabilizing pressure of war and the risks of reducing the regulatory capabilities of state administration. The purpose of the study is to reveal the transformational shifts in the social capital of the territorial communities of Ukraine in the war and post-war periods. The scientific novelty of the work consists in revealing the peculiarities of the influence of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the humanitarian crisis caused by it on the trends of the development of social capital of the territorial communities of Ukraine. Forecasting of social capital transformations is based on the use of systemic approach, methods of abstraction and generalization, modeling, and scenario forecasting of time series. The use of the scenario approach is due to the low predictability and instability of military actions and includes realistic, optimistic, and pessimistic forecast versions. The prediction according to the realistic version is based on the assumption of building up the potential of social capital by the communities of the country and, above all, the territories freed from temporary occupation. It is substantiated that social capital will grow mainly within the community and to a lesser extent outside it, which is due to the residents’ need to identify themselves with the community and its values in conditions of threat to life. The surge of social capital and high motivation of the population will be manifested in the active participation of residents in the public life of territorial communities and the post-war reconstruction of the economy. The trends of the social capital transformation are substantiated for three groups of communities: temporarily occupied territories, territorial communities of the «near rear», and communities of the «deep rear». The optimistic version is based on the assumption that in the forecast period, the transformation of social capital will take place in the conditions of the successful end of hostilities and the liberation of the territory of Ukraine from the occupying forces. It is expected that in the conditions of the post-war reconstruction of communities, the multiplier effect of increasing financial capacity will have a positive impact on the social capital of the community and will manifest itself in the strengthening of the residents’ sense of social protection and the reduction of the economic anxiety level. According to the pessimistic version, the transformation of the social capital of territorial communities will take place in the conditions of a repeated massive offensive of Russian troops and the capture of new territories, which may cause a decrease in the level of trust between residents in the struggle for limited resources, discord, and a decrease in civic participation.
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