Preventive veterinary medicine最新文献

{"title":"Cut-off evaluation of ID Screen Mycoplasma bovis ELISA for use on bulk tank milk in New Zealand","authors":"Ayesha Salgadu ,&nbsp;Amy Burroughs ,&nbsp;Kate Sawford ,&nbsp;Tim Johnstone ,&nbsp;Nadeeka K. Wawegama ,&nbsp;Mark A. Stevenson ,&nbsp;Glenn F. Browning ,&nbsp;Simon M. Firestone","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106528","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106528","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Repeated testing of bulk tank milk (BTM) samples and testing of serum samples has played a major role in New Zealand’s <em>Mycoplasma bovis</em> (<em>M. bovis)</em> eradication programme. We evaluated the performance of the ID Screen <em>Mycoplasma bovis</em> indirect ELISA on BTM samples and identified the maximal diagnostic sensitivity (DSe) and diagnostic specificity (DSp) for testing for antibodies against <em>M. bovis</em> in New Zealand dairy herds. Also, we investigated factors influencing DSe over the milking season and associated with the presence of antibodies against <em>M. bovis</em> in a sample. Data from 63 dairy herds were analysed using Bayesian latent class analysis for two conditionally dependent tests. A BTM ELISA sample-to-positive ratio (SP%) cut-off of 24 was the estimated optimal threshold yielding the optimal combination of DSe and DSp - a DSe of 78.6 % (95 % highest posterior density [HPD] interval, 50.8–93.5) and a DSp of 98.5 % (95 % HPD interval, 97.2–99.4). The presence of antibodies against <em>M. bovis</em> in a BTM sample was associated with herd size and the somatic cell count concentration. DSe varied markedly throughout the milking season, and was dependent on the total BTM sample volume at the time of sampling. The DSe of the ID Screen ELISA was highest for samples tested during the early and mid-stages of the milking season, and when milk vat volumes were low relative to the number of cows in milk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 106528"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143859292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Epidemiological and clinical profiles of young and senior dogs fed a standard diet","authors":"Tiphaine Blanchard ,&nbsp;Amélie Mugnier ,&nbsp;Fleur Boulet ,&nbsp;Annabelle Meynadier ,&nbsp;Nathalie Priymenko","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106537","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106537","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study aimed to explore age-related differences in epidemiological and clinical parameters in dogs consuming a standardized diet, focusing on factors relevant to veterinary practitioners. A total of 106 dogs were included, comprising young (2–5 years) and senior (≥8 years) individuals. Epidemiological data were collected through questionnaires and veterinary consultations, while clinical parameters were assessed via physical examinations and blood analyses. Compared to younger dogs, senior dogs were less active, more likely to live in houses, and more frequently received regular deworming. They were also more likely to consume food purchased from pet stores or supermarkets compared to younger dogs. Clinical evaluations revealed that senior dogs had higher plasma globulin and platelets and lower albumin, consistent with chronic low-grade inflammation associated with aging. Muscle loss, poor coat quality, and reduced lymphocyte counts were also prominent in senior dogs, potentially reflecting sarcopenia, malnutrition, and immunosenescence, respectively. Notably, dogs previously fed diets lacking a source of omega-3 fatty acids exhibited elevated plasma triglycerides even after transitioning for four weeks to a premium diet containing fish oil, underscoring the lasting impact of long-term dietary habits. These findings highlight the importance of regular veterinary follow-ups for senior dogs and the role of high-quality nutrition, including sources of omega-3 fatty acids. By identifying key epidemiological and clinical differences, this study offers valuable insights to help veterinary practitioners distinguish between healthy and pathological aging.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 106537"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143850502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Truck cleaning and disinfection, and the risk of PRRSV dissemination in multi-site pig production systems in the United States: A network-epidemiological model approach","authors":"Natalia Martinez ,&nbsp;Cesar A. Corzo ,&nbsp;Gustavo Machado ,&nbsp;Abel B. Ekiri ,&nbsp;Inaki Deza-Cruz ,&nbsp;Joaquin M. Prada","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106539","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106539","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) poses a significant threat to pig health, particularly in multi-site industrial pig farming systems. These systems, which involve raising pigs at different locations based on their age and transporting them via trucks and trailers, may increase the risk of pathogen transmission through contaminated vehicles. Given the importance of preventing PRRSV infection, vehicle cleaning and disinfection (C&amp;D) are crucial for disease control. This study examined data from four PRRSV outbreaks in U.S. sow farms during a regional emergence of a PRRSV2 variant in multi-site swine production systems, focusing on vehicle movements before and after the outbreaks and their C&amp;D frequencies. This research analysed 1190 vehicle movement records between premises and 753 visits to truck wash stations, creating networks encompassing seven vehicles across 45 sites, including breeding, growing, and isolation facilities. Network simulations were used to evaluate the infection sources and virus transmission risks under various vehicle C&amp;D frequencies during outbreaks. Results showed no significant changes in movement frequency before and after the outbreak. The infection risk varied by farm type and specific connections to the outbreak farm, with higher risks observed in growing farms. Scenario comparisons to assess the impact of C&amp;D frequencies on transmission showed that adherence to vehicle C&amp;D protocols resulted in infection risks nearly matching optimal scenarios. The most substantial differences were observed when comparing infection probabilities in the pessimistic scenario to those in the realistic scenario, with probabilities being significantly higher in the pessimistic scenario, particularly for gilt isolation farms (7.6 % higher) and sow farms (6.6 % higher). These findings underscore the critical role of thorough cleaning and disinfection protocols in reducing infection risk.This research assesses the risks of infection introduction and spread during outbreaks, emphasising the critical role of truck washing in controlling PRRSV. The study provides quantitative evidence that consistent vehicle C&amp;D practices significantly reduce transmission risks, offering valuable insights into disease transmission pathways. These findings inform targeted interventions to enhance biosecurity and strengthen disease prevention strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 106539"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143864985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The effect of the discontinued use of zinc oxide on antimicrobial usage in Danish pig farms","authors":"Josefine Ostenfeld Nielsen,&nbsp;Frank Møller Aarestrup,&nbsp;Vibe Dalhoff Andersen,&nbsp;Håkan Vigre","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106533","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106533","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the Danish pig industry, zinc oxide, used for prevention of <em>E. coli</em>-related post-weaning diarrhoea in weaners, was banned in 2022 due to environmental concerns. This epidemiological study aimed to estimate the effect of the discontinued use of zinc oxide on antimicrobial usage (AMU) for weaners and finishers in Danish farms. Using farm and prescription data from 2018 to 2023 from national databases, we fitted a linear mixed-effect model to a three-level nested dataset, consisting of monthly average standardized AMU (Defined Animal Daily Doses per pig-day), on a farm (n = 4020), overseen by a veterinarian (n = 146). The most significant effect of the zinc oxide ban was seen for weaners, where AMU increased by ∼5 % on average in the first 5 months post-discontinuation, followed by a ∼17 % increase after &gt; 5 months. A long-term effect was also seen for weaners on farms that did not use zinc oxide in the year preceding the ban, where AMU increased by ∼19 % on average &gt; 5 months after the ban was enforced, although from a lower pre-ban AMU. The between-farm variation indicated that the effect of the absence of zinc oxide on the prevalence of post-weaning diarrhoea was significantly influenced by individual farm management practices. The random variation in AMU between farms overseen by the same veterinarian was ∼10 times higher than the estimated variation between veterinarians, indicating that antimicrobial prescriptions made by veterinarians are specific to the disease status in each farm. The estimated autocorrelation in AMU between consecutive months indicates that the constant amount of antimicrobials needed to manage the production is linked to non-varying management practices in individual farms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 106533"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143838806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Diseases associated with antimicrobial use in pig farms and risk factors thereof: A cross-sectional study in the Netherlands","authors":"Panagiotis Mallioris ,&nbsp;Magdalini Stefanopoulou ,&nbsp;Roosmarijn E.C. Luiken ,&nbsp;Jaap A. Wagenaar ,&nbsp;Arjan Stegeman ,&nbsp;Lapo Mughini-Gras","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106535","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106535","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Current antimicrobial use (AMU) in Dutch pig farms is driven by herd health status, as only therapeutic AMU is permitted. This study focused on weaners and sows with suckling piglets to examine the diseases associated with i) overall AMU (measured in Defined Daily Dosage Animal per year – DDDA/Y), ii) use/not use of specific antimicrobial classes, iii) total consumption of specific antimicrobial classes (in DDDA/Y), and iv) farm characteristics linked to the occurrence of diseases that require AMU.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Cross-sectional data on AMU, disease aetiologies for group treatments, and farm characteristics were collected from 154 Dutch pig farms, representing the situation in 2019. Associations between disease occurrence as a predictor and AMU (overall and by antimicrobial class) as an outcome were analyzed using multivariable generalized linear regression models. Subsequently, mixed-effects conditional Random Forest analysis was used to identify farm characteristics associated with these diseases.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Group treatments for musculoskeletal/neurological diseases (MNDs) in suckling piglets, and individual treatments (of unknown aetiology) in sows and suckling piglets, were significantly associated with total AMU there. AMU in weaners was significantly associated with respiratory diseases, MNDs, and individual treatments. Tetracyclines and penicillins were primarily used for respiratory diseases and MNDs in weaners, respectively, and for MNDs in sows and suckling piglets. Having a clear separation between clean and dirty outdoor areas in the farm and using boars from own production for estrus detection were both protective against occurrence of respiratory conditions in weaners, whereas PRRS vaccination in suckling piglets was a risk factor. <em>Streptococcus suis</em> vaccination in sows and fully slatted floors were both risk factors for MNDs in weaners, whereas being an organic farm was protective. Use of disinfecting powders in sows increased MNDs risk in suckling piglets and sows, and a longer lactation period was protective against respiratory diseases and MNDs in weaners.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Respiratory diseases and MNDs in weaners appeared as the primary aetiologies for antimicrobial group treatments on Dutch pig farms. Prioritizing farm practices that enhance biosecurity and animal welfare is crucial for controlling these diseases and, consequently, reducing AMU.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 106535"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143829669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Current practice and future directions in syndromic surveillance for animal health: A scoping review and analysis","authors":"Julie Teresa Shapiro ,&nbsp;Géraldine Cazeau ,&nbsp;Romane DiBiagio ,&nbsp;Céline Dupuy ,&nbsp;Eric Morignat ,&nbsp;Fernanda Dórea ,&nbsp;Viviane Hénaux ,&nbsp;Jean-Philippe Amat","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106532","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106532","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Syndromic surveillance, the monitoring of non-specific indicators or symptoms, is a powerful tool for monitoring health or well-being. We conducted a scoping review to provide an up-to-date, global overview of syndromic surveillance for animal health, focusing on variation between animal sectors (livestock, companion, and wildlife), geography, indicators, data providers, and One Health approaches. We searched the Scopus and PubMed databases for articles describing or using data from syndromic surveillance systems or testing the potential of a data set or method for syndromic surveillance and supplemented this information with gray literature to determine further development of systems. We identified 126 syndromic surveillance systems from 165 articles. Most systems (n = 84, 67 %) were in the proof-of-concept phase, while only 25 (20 %) were established operational systems. These were mostly run by governments (n = 15, 58 %), as well as nonprofits (n = 4, 15 %), and academic institutions (n = 3, 12 %). The majority of systems monitored livestock (n = 89, 71 %); just over half were located in Europe (n = 64, 51 %) and a further 28 % (n = 35) in North America. Only eight systems (6 %) monitored multiple animal sectors. Twelve systems (10 %) used a One Health approach, linking data or surveillance concerning the same threat in humans and any animal sector. The most common data collectors were private veterinarians (n = 35, 28 %) and animals' owners (n = 29, 23 %); the most commonly used indicators were mortality (n = 52, 41 %), general illness (n = 36, 29 %), and reproductive symptoms (n = 31, 25 %). While syndromic surveillance for animals continues to develop, there is still a gap between research and implementation. However, even established systems are vulnerable to lack of continued funding and support. By compiling and analyzing this data, we highlight developments in syndromic surveillance for animals as well as differences in practices between sectors and regions of the world.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"241 ","pages":"Article 106532"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143904267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Free-roaming dog population and density in Klang Valley, Peninsular Malaysia: A comparative enumeration method for improved management and rabies control","authors":"Yunusa Adamu Wada ,&nbsp;Mazlina Mazlan ,&nbsp;Mustapha M. Noordin ,&nbsp;Mohd Azmi Mohd-Lila ,&nbsp;Lau Seng Fong ,&nbsp;Siti Zubaidah Ramanoon ,&nbsp;Nurul Izzati Uda Zahli","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106536","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106536","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Managing free-roaming dog populations is a critical global public health issue, particularly in urban settings. Accurate population estimates are essential for designing effective management and rabies control strategies. This study aimed to estimate the free-roaming dog population in Klang Valley, Peninsular Malaysia, using multiple analytical models based on the photographic sight-resight method. Data—including GPS location, ownership status, age, and environmental factors—were collected across five districts and 15 towns between March and October 2022. Secondary data on land area, human population density, and ethnicity were also analysed. Five population models were applied to estimate free-roaming dog populations, assessing density per street length and area. A total of 599 dogs were recorded, comprising 492 sightings and 107 resights. The overall detection probability was 0.38 (95 % CI: 0.35–0.41), with population estimates ranging from 818 (Bailey method) to 1407 (Schnabel method). The Lincoln-Petersen index and Schnabel method yielded population estimates of 937 and 1407, respectively, but with low precision (27.53 % and 41.51 %). In contrast, the Bailey correction, Chapman correction, and Detection Probability models provided more precise estimates, with percentage precision values of 4.89 %, 3.53 %, and 2.39 %, respectively. The Detection Probability model emerged as the most precise, accounting for unseen individuals and detection bias—a crucial factor for accurate population estimation in free-roaming dog studies. Dog density per street length ranged from 3.33 dogs/km (direct count) to 8.34 dogs/km (detection probability). Overall population estimates varied significantly, ranging from 23,120 to 33,340 depending on the estimation method. Heatmaps revealed strong correlations between dog density, ethnicity, and environmental factors. These findings underscore the importance of precise estimation models to inform effective dog population management and rabies control strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 106536"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143847717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Association between antimicrobial use levels and meat inspection lesions in Danish finishers","authors":"Anne-Sofie Glavind ,&nbsp;Amanda Brinch Kruse ,&nbsp;Helle Stege ,&nbsp;Lis Alban","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106524","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106524","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In Denmark, the Yellow Card scheme enforces restrictions on pig herds exceeding official permitted limits for antimicrobial use (AMU). To assess if a Yellow Card is related to poor animal health, we examined the association between AMU and the health status of Danish finishers using meat inspection data as a proxy for pig health. We included meat inspection findings in 10.5 million finishers delivered to 9 Danish abattoirs between 2016 and 2020 from herds classified as having a low, medium, or high AMU (Yellow Card herds). The prevalence of meat inspection findings was calculated and analysed in mixed-effects logistic regression models to determine the associations between each of eight selected lesions and AMU level while also considering the effect of herd size, location (east or west) and herd type (indoor or outdoor). Despite differences in AMU, only minor differences in meat inspection lesions were present. The overall result of the multivariable modelling was that herds with a medium AMU level were associated with the lowest prevalence of meat inspection lesions – observed for five out of the eight lesions investigated. Moreover, large herds were associated with a lower prevalence of meat inspection lesions than small herds – observed for seven out of eight lesions. The prevalence of lung and tail lesions was higher for herds in the western region of Denmark compared to the eastern regions, and the prevalence of tail lesions, arthritis and osteomyelitis was higher in outdoor herds compared to indoor herds. Hence, both a high and a low AMU could be linked with health and welfare issues. The results indicate that the advisory role of the herd veterinarian is pivotal in preventing adverse effects of antimicrobial reduction measures on animal health and welfare, in particular, if the Yellow Card limits are reduced further.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 106524"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143854946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum to “Modeled impacts of rapid and accurate cattle tracing in a Foot-and-Mouth Disease outbreak in the US” [Prev. Vet. Med. 215 (2023) 105911]","authors":"MaRyka R. Smith,&nbsp;Michael W. Sanderson","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106530","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106530","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"239 ","pages":"Article 106530"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143868909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Animal rabies in the Nizhny Novgorod region of Russia (2012–2024): Descriptive and predictive epidemiological analysis","authors":"Olga I. Zakharova ,&nbsp;Elena A. Liskova ,&nbsp;Irina V. Razheva ,&nbsp;Nadezhda A. Gladkova ,&nbsp;Olga A. Burova ,&nbsp;Ivan V. Yashin ,&nbsp;Andrey A. Blokhin ,&nbsp;Fedor I. Korennoy","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106531","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106531","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The aim of this study was to reveal spatiotemporal patterns of emergence of rabies cases in various animals in the Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (a region in the center of the European part of the Russian Federation) from 2012 to 2024, and to identify areas with the highest exposure to the disease using regression models and time series analysis. During the study period, a total of 676 cases of rabies were registered, with 60.10 % among wild species, 31.52 % among domestic (companion) animals, and 7.51 % among livestock animals. The transmission of rabies in the study area is especially driven by wild animals, particularly the red fox (<em>Vulpes vulpes</em>). Livestock forms a separate population that hardly can present a link of the rabies virus transmission but rather may be sought as an indicator of the virus presence in animals. A regression model with a good predictive power (R²=0.63) revealed the number of settlements, population density, population size of foxes and road length as the main explanatory factors for the number of cases of rabies by administrative units. ARIMA, which stands for Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model, was used for short-term time-series-based forecasting of animal rabies cases in the districts of the Nizhny Novgorod region. According to the ARIMA forecast, the number of rabies cases among all animals is expected to be 6–23, and particularly up to 15 cases in foxes for the season throughout 2025. This study provides important epidemiological information for veterinary services, including an expected number of animal rabies cases by population. This information may be of some interest in the planning of vaccination strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 106531"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143824556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}