Preventive veterinary medicine最新文献

{"title":"Identifying control strategies to eliminate African swine fever in the United States swine industry in under 12 months","authors":"Abagael L. Sykes ,&nbsp;Jason A. Galvis ,&nbsp;Kathleen C. O’Hara ,&nbsp;Lindsey Holmstrom ,&nbsp;Cesar Corzo ,&nbsp;Gustavo Machado","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106598","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106598","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rising risk of African swine fever (ASF) introduction into the U.S., there is substantial emphasis on preparation for an epidemic to mitigate the economic impacts observed in previous outbreaks. Mathematical models represent a vital tool for simulating future epidemics and examining the effectiveness of response strategies. This study expands on our spatially explicit stochastic compartmental farm-level transmission model, <em>PigSpread-ASF</em>, to assess the effectiveness of the National Response Plan (NRP) and identify the control strategies necessary to eliminate ASF from domestic swine populations in the southeast U.S. in three, six, nine, and twelve months. We achieved this by incrementally increasing the intensity of the control actions i) quarantine and depopulation; ii) a 72-hour standstill; iii) contact tracing; and iv) control areas (composed of infected zones (3 km) and buffer zones (2 km) and surveillance zones (5 km), which include routine diagnostic testing, pre-permit testing and movement restrictions. For this model, ASF was deemed eliminated after three consecutive months of no new ASF cases following each time period, as determined by WOAH. Our results demonstrate that under the NRP, only 65.1 % of simulations in our study area were eliminated in a 12-month time frame. Through the analysis of 11 different scenarios, we propose that a future ASF control strategy would need to i) increase radii and duration of control areas and surveillance zones, ii) extend the traceback and quarantine for contact farms; iii) extend the movement standstill; iv) prohibit repopulation of depopulated farms; and v) quicker baseline detection of ASF, to eliminate ASF within three, six, nine and twelve months in the study area. The elimination of ASF in 12-months required buffer zone radius of 5 km and maintenance of the control areas and surveillance zones for 60 days, a traceback and quarantine of 60 and 30 days for the contact tracing, and a standstill of 30 days. In contrast, the three-month scenario required extension of the infected zone, buffer zone and surveillance zone radii to 20 km each and maintenance of the control area and surveillance zones for 90 days, a traceback and quarantine of 90 days for contact tracing, and a standstill of 90 days. By intensifying the current national response plan, ASF would likely be eliminated within 12-months of its introduction in the southeast U.S. However, it is pertinent to consider the limitations posed by resource capacities and the impact that intensifying control may have on business continuity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 106598"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144298825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prevalence and risk of orthopedic diagnoses in insured Swedish Warmblood horses","authors":"S. Bonow,&nbsp;E. Hernlund,&nbsp;S. Eriksson,&nbsp;E. Strandberg,&nbsp;Å. Gelinder Viklund","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106596","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106596","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sweden has a strong tradition of insuring horses for veterinary costs, and orthopedic diagnoses are the most common for insurance claims. The aim of this study was to investigate differences in prevalence and risk of orthopedic diagnoses for Swedish warmblood (SWB) horses classified as jumping (J) or dressage (D) horses. Also, other factors that may influence orthopedic health were investigated, i.e., sex, birth cohort, and participation in young horse tests and competition. The data consisted of 15,619 insured SWB horses born between 2010 and 2020. Horses were classified as J or D horses according to pedigree. The prevalence of orthopedic diagnoses was investigated using logistic regression analysis and presented as Least Squares means. The time from birth to first orthopedic diagnosis was investigated using survival analysis. D horses were at a higher risk of having orthopedic diagnoses compared with J horses (50.9 % vs 43.9 %, P &lt; 0.0001). Male horses were at a higher risk than females (49.7 % vs 45.0 %, P &lt; 0.0001), and tested horses were at a higher risk than non-tested horses (49.9 % vs 44.9 %, P &lt; 0.0001). No significant difference was seen between competed and non-competed horses regarding the risk of having orthopedic diagnoses, but the groups were predisposed to different subgroups of orthopedic diagnoses. Survival analysis showed that later cohorts were more likely to have insurance claims for orthopedic diagnoses at a younger age than earlier cohorts. In conclusion, insurance data can be a useful tool to study which factors influence the orthopedic health status of the SWB horse population.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 106596"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144271998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characterizing state-level patterns of interstate certificates of veterinary inspection exceptions across the United States","authors":"K. Phillips,&nbsp;S.C. Sequeira,&nbsp;G. Habing,&nbsp;A.G. Arruda","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106593","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106593","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection (ICVIs) are documents widely used in studies to describe animal movements across the United States (US) and subsequently, explore the potential for disease spread. However, unique state-level exceptions to ICVI documentation exist. This project aimed to describe these exceptions in US state regulations and investigate the association between state-level characteristics - such as in-state cattle shipments and number of slaughter operations – and the number of ICVI exceptions. Exceptions were systematically recorded by accessing official sources. These included exceptions 1) for cattle moving directly to slaughter, 2) for cattle moving to a livestock market, 3) allowing the use of other forms of animal identification, 4) allowing the use of commuter permits, 5) allowing the use of grazing permits, 6) for cattle moving directly to veterinary care, 7) for cattle moving to a feedlot, 8) for cattle moving to an approved tagging site, 9) for cattle moving to their origin farm, 10) for cattle being held in quarantine, and 11) for cattle under a certain age. A multivariable Poisson regression model was used to investigate the association between the number (count) of exceptions and cattle-related characteristics at the state level. Statistical significance was determined at p &lt; 0.05. Results revealed that 86 % of states had at least one exception to ICVI usage, with a mean (±SD) 2.5 (±1.6) exceptions per state. Notably, 82 % of states included exceptions for slaughter movements, and half of the states allowed alternative forms of animal identification. The final model showed that states with 17–33 slaughter operations had a significantly higher rate of exceptions (IRR = 2.12; P = 0.06) compared to those with fewer than 17 slaughtering facilities. Findings from this study showed that basing cattle movement networks solely on ICVI documentation may negatively impact disease traceability in cattle, given that the proportion of states using alternative movement documentation was substantial. Additionally, it highlighted the fact that US states with a high potential impact on disease transmission, such as those having high traffic for cattle slaughter purposes, had a higher number of exceptions to ICVI usages. This indicates critical vulnerabilities in the broader network of cattle movement, highlighting the need for more comprehensive approaches to disease traceability and prevention in the US cattle industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 106593"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144230964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Awareness and risk perception of bovine brucellosis among subsistence and medium-large scale farmers, and veterinarians: Insights from focus groups in Ecuador","authors":"Rommel L. Vinueza ,&nbsp;Luis Chungata ,&nbsp;Fernando Ortega ,&nbsp;William F. Waters ,&nbsp;Benoît Durand ,&nbsp;Jaime Mejía ,&nbsp;Ramiro F. Díaz ,&nbsp;Gina Zanella","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106591","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106591","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Bovine brucellosis is a zoonotic disease that poses significant risks to both livestock and humans, particularly those who come into contact with infected animals or consume unpasteurized dairy products. This disease is enzootic in Ecuador. Although previous studies have primarily examined its prevalence, there is limited understanding of veterinarians' perceptions of the issue and the awareness levels among cattle farmers regarding the associated risks. In this study, we used qualitative methods to examine the perception of bovine brucellosis control among veterinarians in Ecuador, as well as the awareness levels and risk perception of subsistence and medium and large-scale farmers regarding the disease. Four focus groups, two with veterinarians and two with cattle farmers were held between March and May 2022, involving veterinarians from eight Ecuadorian provinces working for the public, private, and academic sectors, as well as subsistence-scale farmers from an indigenous community in the highlands, and medium- and large-scale farmers in the coastal region. The findings showed that veterinarians believe farmers have limited knowledge about brucellosis and are unaware of the health risks associated with this disease. They also identified obstacles related to enforcing current laws, insufficient resources for health education, operational limitations of health organizations, and a lack of incentives for participating in the brucellosis control program. Subsistence- and medium and large-scale farmers displayed a low level of knowledge about brucellosis and limited awareness of associated risks. Risky livestock practices harmful to both animal and human health were also noted among these farmers. Socio-cultural factors, age, educational level, and gender were identified as barriers to accessing technology and information about bovine brucellosis prevention.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 106591"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144243292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the operational logistics of implementing isolation protocols at equestrian facilities","authors":"G.K. Turcotte ,&nbsp;T.L. O’Sullivan ,&nbsp;K.L. Spence ,&nbsp;C.B. Winder ,&nbsp;A.L. Greer","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106592","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106592","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Horses may travel for a variety of reasons, leading to potential exposure to pathogens. Typically, these movements are bidirectional with horses returning to their home facility, therefore also risking pathogen exposure to resident horses at home facilities. The Canadian National Farm and Facility Level Biosecurity Standard for the Equine Sector was designed to outline best practices for managing biosecurity at equestrian facilities, however, there is a gap between the implementation of these recommendations and the day-to-day operations of equestrian facilities. This study aimed to explore the challenges and opportunities for implementing biosecurity protocols at equestrian facilities through an isolation activity for a mock pathogen. This study was performed at seven Ontario equestrian facilities and used a fluorescent spray as a proxy for a pathogen along with the subsequent implementation of biosecurity measures. Pre- and post-study interviews were also conducted with participants to gain additional insight into the feasibility of instituting an isolation protocol. Facility-level, qualitative, descriptive summaries and a survival analysis were used to outline some of the discovered challenges including weather, staff training, time constraints, and compliance. There were also horse-level considerations such as turnout procedures and stabling requirements. Results indicated the potential for a feasible subset of all biosecurity practices to effectively reduce risk of non-airborne transmission, counteracting the perception that biosecurity is effective only when performed completely and without exception. This could lead to additional incorporation of biosecurity measures in equestrian facilities’ daily operations to support continued maintenance of health and welfare in the equine population.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 106592"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144243293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A tale of two labs: Comparing antimicrobial resistance data in pets across commercial and academic diagnostic laboratories","authors":"Kurtis E. Sobkowich ,&nbsp;Zvonimir Poljak ,&nbsp;Donald Szlosek ,&nbsp;Claudia Cobo Angel ,&nbsp;Abdolreza Mosaddegh ,&nbsp;J. Scott Weese ,&nbsp;Cassandra Guarino ,&nbsp;Casey L. Cazer","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106588","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106588","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Antimicrobial resistance *AMR) presents significant challenges in veterinary medicine, necessitating accurate surveillance to inform effective mitigation strategies. Most resistance estimates for cats and dogs are based on a single data source, typically university-affiliated diagnostic laboratories *UADLs), which may limit their generalizability. This study is the first to quantitatively compare AMR data from a UADL and a commercial diagnostic laboratory *CDL) by analyzing antimicrobial susceptibility testing *AST) results for <em>Escherichia coli</em> and <em>Staphylococcus pseudintermedius</em> in cats and dogs from New York State between 2019 and 2022. The analysis focused on first-line and higher-tier antimicrobials and revealed a tendency for the UADL data to observe lower susceptibility rates than the CDL. However, the extent of this difference varied by bacteria-antimicrobial combination, geographic region, and time. A secondary objective was to develop and test a novel Shiny application designed to harmonize and prepare data for comparison without exchanging raw data, addressing several data-sharing concerns that could limit collaboration. These findings highlight how variations in data sources can affect resistance estimates and interpretations. By identifying similarities and differences, this study underscores the importance of considering data source characteristics when analyzing and applying AMR surveillance reports. Integrating data from multiple sources may provide a more balanced and representative understanding of resistance patterns, thereby supporting more effective surveillance and decision-making in companion animal medicine. Here, we demonstrate that user-friendly analysis tools can support data integration without requiring raw data to be publicly available or shared between institutions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 106588"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144212891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The epidemiology of mast cell tumours in insured dogs in Sweden","authors":"Karolina Engdahl ,&nbsp;Sara Saellström ,&nbsp;Åke Hedhammar ,&nbsp;Maria Dimopoulou ,&nbsp;Henrik Rönnberg","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106589","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106589","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Mast cell tumour (MCT) is the most common skin neoplasia in dogs. This study aimed to explore the incidence rate, cause-specific mortality rate and risk factors (breed, age, gender) for MCT in insured dogs in Sweden (2011–2016).</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>The study population of this cohort study included just over 600,000 dogs, which either were insured for veterinary care, life, or both. There were 917 dogs with veterinary care claims for MCT, and the incidence rate was 5.23 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 4.90–5.58) cases per 10,000 dog-years at risk (DYAR). The risk of MCT was higher in females than in males (relative risk (RR) 1.29, 95 % CI: 1.13–1.48, <em>P</em> &lt; 0.001). The breeds at highest risk were the Dogo Argentino (RR 30.0, 95 % CI 9.70–70.2) and Boxer (RR 9.78, 95 % CI 7.02–13.3), while the Jämthund (RR 0.10, 95 % CI 0.01–0.35) and Cavalier King Charles spaniel (RR 0.06, 95 % CI 0.00–0.35) had the lowest risk. The median age at first diagnosis was 7.93 (range 0.44–15.4) years. In total, 11.6 % of the affected dogs suffered multiple MCT events. The cause-specific mortality rate was 0.79 (95 % CI: 0.63–0.97) deaths per 10,000 DYAR, and 87 of all dogs that were covered by life insurance died of MCT-related causes at a median age of 8.33 years (range 2.16–11.7). The Shar-pei (RR 51.5, 95 % CI: 13.7–137.0) had the highest risk of MCT-related death.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>MCT mainly affected middle-aged to older dogs, and large breed-related differences in the risk of MCT and MCT-related death were found.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 106589"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144221885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus transmission among smallholder pig farms in western Uganda","authors":"Emilly Niwandinda ,&nbsp;Emmanuel Hasahya ,&nbsp;Andrew Wange Bugenyi ,&nbsp;Paul Bogere ,&nbsp;Joseph Byaruhanga ,&nbsp;Pablo Alarcón ,&nbsp;Halid Kirunda ,&nbsp;Jaeyoung Heo ,&nbsp;Charles Masembe","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106590","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106590","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Pig production is a rapidly growing sector in Uganda, especially among smallholder farmers to whom it provides a vital source of income. However, the burden of productivity-limiting diseases such as Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) poses a significant challenge. This is exacerbated by the paucity of information on the occurrence of these pathogens within the country, highlighting the need to study their transmission dynamics for effective control. Here, we modelled the transmission of PRRS in western Uganda and evaluated its control under strategies targeting closure of biosecurity gaps related to practices such as equipment sharing, free ranging, boar sharing, farm visits, and restocking. We used data from 398 pig-farming households to assess husbandry practices, and to estimate contact rates and distances for simulating the spread of PRRS among the 44,125 farms in the study area. Biosecurity measures were found to be low among pig farms in the region, with only 0.8 % of them keeping their entire herd confined all-year round, limiting access to unauthorized persons, and using disinfectants. Under the current state of biosecurity, a PRRS outbreak would result in 17. 57 % of the pig farms in the region being infected within two years, with the medium and large-scale smallholder farms being most affected. The outbreak would persist beyond 2 years (with a 67.80 % likelihood), stabilizing around 700 days post-introduction; reaching a prevalence of 5.15 %; and with a median of 17 farms being infected daily during this endemic phase. However, eliminating visitor traffic could entirely halt PRRS spread, while eliminating risks associated with boar sharing, restocking, and scavenging would lead to reductions of 99.85 %, 99.44 %, and 40.67 %, respectively. Furthermore, even a moderate adoption of improved biosecurity measures related to farm visits or boar sharing, could significantly reduce the effects of PRRS in the region. For instance, reducing the frequency of farm visits or boar sharing by 25 % across all pig farms could reduce PRRS transmission by 99.61 % or 73.95 % respectively. This outcome could also be achieved through a targeted adoption rate of 50 % within large-scale smallholder farms coupled with a 25 % rate for medium-scaled ones. Our results highlight the necessity of promoting enhanced on-farm biosecurity practices in smallholder pig farms, given the challenges posed by productivity-limiting diseases such as PRRS, in Uganda’s rapidly growing piggery industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 106590"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144212892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Perceptions and attitudes toward control of invasive monk parakeets (Myiopsitta monachus) in citizens from Santiago metropolis, Chile","authors":"Matilde Larraechea ,&nbsp;Angela Dos Santos ,&nbsp;Claudia Cerda ,&nbsp;Raúl Alegría-Morán ,&nbsp;Cristóbal Briceño","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106577","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106577","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The monk parakeet, one of the world’s most invasive birds, has thrived in urban areas and causes environmental, economic, and health impacts. These challenges underline the need for control measures, though public perception can affect efforts. This study explores attitudes toward monk parakeet management among residents from Santiago, Chile. Five-hundred and four online surveys were applied and distributed through online social networks aimed at inhabitants in the Metropolitan Region. Although most citizens recognize that the parakeets can produce environmental impact, respondents do not consider them as a threat to health or the economy. Seventy percent of participants believe there should be a population control program for monk parakeets in place, and the control method is not significantly related to people’s support. Sixty percent of respondents support parakeet eradication if they cause damage to native species or if they transmit pathogens to humans or other animals. However, this acceptability decreased considerably if eradication is conducted due to economic damages. Our results demonstrate that, despite a high level of appreciation to parakeets, there is a general willingness to support its management, including eradication, in pursuit of biodiversity conservation and public health. However, citizens need information to know the threats of this invasive bird, given that management initiatives will receive greater support when society understands the potential parakeet impact on environmental, health, or economic realms and when specific and compelling methods are used. It is important for decision-makers to acknowledge beliefs and concerns that could hinder the management of monk parakeets in order to prevent social conflicts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 106577"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144221886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predictive models to determine best strategy for metaphylaxis application in cattle at arrival to a feedyard","authors":"Lilli Heinen ,&nbsp;Phillip A. Lancaster ,&nbsp;Robert L. Larson ,&nbsp;Dustin L. Pendell ,&nbsp;Dannell J. Kopp ,&nbsp;Brad J. White","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106572","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106572","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Metaphylaxis, the application of an antimicrobial to a cohort of cattle at arrival to a feedyard, is an important bovine respiratory disease (BRD) control strategy for certain cattle populations. Predictive modeling techniques could be used to assist in determining which cohorts should receive metaphylaxis based on a desired economic outcome instead of subjectively. The study objective was to evaluate predictive models trained with cattle demographic variables to determine which cohorts should receive metaphylaxis based on an economic evaluation of highest net returns and to elucidate the benefit to model performance with the addition of origin and external economic variables. Data from 16,368 cattle cohorts were used to build four predictive models: boosted decision tree, logistic regression, neural network, and random forest. Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristics curve (AUC-ROC) was used to evaluate model performance. The same algorithms were used to compare adding origin and external economic data to the baseline models. Overall, model performance was high with AUC-ROC values ranging from 0.80 to 0.93 in the baseline models. Adding external economic variables such as commodity futures prices increased performance (AUC-ROC=0.92–0.94). Adding origin data, such as city and state, resulted in poorer performance (AUC-ROC=0.79–0.89). The combination of external economic data and origin resulted in intermediate AUC-ROC values (AUC-ROC=0.87–0.91). The study demonstrated that predictive models can be used successfully to select an optimal metaphylaxis strategy as determined by economic evaluation for cattle arriving at the feedyard.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 106572"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144203970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}