Sen Wang , Yue Wang , Yaling Cao , Quanzhen Cai , Jing Li , Yumei Liu
{"title":"Direct and indirect effects of zoonosis intervention on pro-environmental behaviors among livestock farmers","authors":"Sen Wang , Yue Wang , Yaling Cao , Quanzhen Cai , Jing Li , Yumei Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2026.106793","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2026.106793","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The occurrence of zoonotic diseases on livestock farms, especially infectious diseases such as echinococcosis, poses a severe threat to surrounding ecosystems and the health of nearby residents. It is crucial to take proper measures to increase farmers' knowledge, awareness and practices regarding zoonoses. Cognitive interventions are widely used in the control of epidemics. Using Chinese livestock farming as a case study, this study examined the effect of cognitive intervention (i.e., training and dissemination) on farmers’ pro-environmental behaviors, with the key dependent variable including both zoonosis-prevention behaviors (e.g., dog deworming and lamb vaccination) and daily management behaviors (e.g., household waste and sewage handling). Based on survey data collected from 496 livestock farmers over four years in Qinghai province, China, the study employed a two-way fixed-effects regression model to explore both the direct and indirect effects of zoonotic cognitive intervention on farmers' pro-environmental behaviors, and also explored the mediating effects of zoonotic knowledge and perceptions of environment. The findings reveal that: (1) Zoonotic cognitive interventions significantly improved farmers' behaviors in preventing and controlling zoonotic diseases. (2) The interventions generated positive indirect effects on other pro-environmental behaviors, particularly proper disposal of livestock waste and household garbage. (3) Increased knowledge on zoonosis, as well as pollution awareness were key mechanisms linking interventions to behavioral changes, and (4) the effects were heterogeneously stronger among less-educated farmers and in regions with lower epidemic prevalence and stricter ecological protection policies. These results highlight the policy relevance of incorporating cognitive interventions into rural public health and environmental management programs, providing new evidence to support sustainable livestock farming and inform integrated strategies for health and agricultural policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"249 ","pages":"Article 106793"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146081872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sandra I. Ijoma , Asma Mesdour , Rayyanu A. Usman , Muhammad-Bashir Bolajoko , Chika Nwosuh , Marion Bordier , Arnaud Bataille , Adeiza M. Abdulrahman , Wesley D. Nafarnda , Andrea Apolloni , Elena Arsevska
{"title":"Mapping risk areas for the occurrence of Peste des petits ruminants in the Plateau, Bauchi, and Kano states in Nigeria by combining expert knowledge and field surveys on animal mobility","authors":"Sandra I. Ijoma , Asma Mesdour , Rayyanu A. Usman , Muhammad-Bashir Bolajoko , Chika Nwosuh , Marion Bordier , Arnaud Bataille , Adeiza M. Abdulrahman , Wesley D. Nafarnda , Andrea Apolloni , Elena Arsevska","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2026.106787","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2026.106787","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious disease of small ruminants that causes significant economic losses. The disease is endemic in most sub-Saharan countries, such as Nigeria. Despite decades of widespread vaccination efforts, the disease persists due to significant animal movements, particularly transhumance and commercial trade. This facilitates the rapid spread of the disease across Nigerian states, particularly in the semi-arid north, where there is frequent animal movement. This study aimed to identify high-risk areas for PPR transmission in the Plateau, Bauchi, and Kano states using rigorous, systematic multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). The risk factors for PPR occurrence and their relative importance were identified through a literature review and consultation with PPR experts. The corresponding geographic data were collected, standardised, weighted and combined to pinpoint the areas most likely to experience disease outbreaks. The results were validated using a recent PPR seroprevalence survey conducted in the three states. Risk factors such as climate, small ruminant density, proximity to dry areas, small ruminant commercial and transhumance movements were identified as drivers of disease occurrence. Risk maps could be used to inform targeted disease control strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"249 ","pages":"Article 106787"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146166334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Contract quality promotes antimicrobial use reduction among pig farmers in China","authors":"Yashan Deng , Yongfeng Tan , Qian Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2026.106807","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2026.106807","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing global threat, with the overuse of antibiotics in livestock being one of the main causes. Farmers may sometimes overuse veterinary antibiotics with the aim of preventing epidemics. While existing literature has meticulously examined the ramifications of contract farming on the transmission and control of animal diseases, our research conducts the first quantitative analysis that elucidates how contract quality (transcending mere participation) drives antimicrobial use reduction. We used questionnaire data from Chinese pig farmers and a Tobit model to examine the impact of contract quality on antimicrobial use reduction among rural pig farmers in Shandong Province, China. The results indicated that contract quality had a significant positive effect on antimicrobial use reduction among pig farmers, a finding that remained robust after addressing endogeneity and conducting various robustness checks. Mechanism analysis revealed that the primary channels through which contract quality promoted antimicrobial use reduction were stringent delivery requirements, in-depth information sharing, and explicit premium incentives. Heterogeneity analysis showed that the impact of contract quality on antimicrobial use reduction varied across different groups. Our study enhances the understanding of the relationship between contract quality and antimicrobial use reduction among pig farmers, providing evidence for contract management and livestock production safety.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"249 ","pages":"Article 106807"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146166296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
P.J. Atkinson , C. Quimby , A. Datt , T.D. Nielsen , C.G.B. Caraguel
{"title":"Relative accuracy of point-of-care tests to rule-in heartworm infection in clinically suspected dogs using Bayesian latent class modelling","authors":"P.J. Atkinson , C. Quimby , A. Datt , T.D. Nielsen , C.G.B. Caraguel","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2026.106783","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2026.106783","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Our prospective cross-sectional survey of dogs from Western Fiji aimed to evaluate the fitness of common diagnostic test modalities to rule-in <em>Dirofilaria immitis</em> infection in patients with suggestive clinical history or signs. In the absence of a perfect reference standard, we used latent class modelling to evaluate the relative diagnostic accuracy of two point-of-care (POC) detection modalities – the modified Knott’s test (MKT) to detect circulating microfilaria and four antigen lateral flow immunoassays (LFI): Anigen Rapid Canine HW Ag Test® (Bionote Co.), SNAP® Heartworm RT Test (IDEXX Laboratories), trūRapid Heartworm (Heska), WITNESS Dirofilaria® (Zoetis Inc.). The tests’ fitness for ruling-in infection were compared using the likelihood ratios of a positive result (LR<sup>+</sup>). The performances of the MKT and the Anigen Rapid LFI to rule-in infection on fresh blood of clinically suspected dogs were moderate to strong (LR<sup>+</sup>=13.4, 95 %PCI: 6.7–114.6; LR<sup>+</sup>=20.2, 95 %PCI: 5.4–138.2; respectively) but not consistently different from each other. The Anigen Rapid, SNAP and truRapid tests consistently provided the strongest evidence to rule-in infection. The LR<sup>+</sup> of the WITNESS test was approximately twelve times, nine times and two times lower than the SNAP, truRapid and Anigen Rapid LFIs respectively (Bayesian p-value 0.002, 0.004 and 0.02 respectively). Overall, a positive result from MKT or LFIs is suitable to rule-in infection in dogs raising clinical suspicion and would increase the post-test probability of infection similarly. If veterinarians are choosing between LFIs, they should favour either Anigen Rapid, SNAP and truRapid over WITNESS.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"248 ","pages":"Article 106783"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145939814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Frequency and risk factors of dogwalk incidents and injuries in agility dogs","authors":"Leena Inkilä, Anna Boström, Heli K. Hyytiäinen","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106771","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106771","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Approximately 5–12 % of agility dog injuries occur on the dogwalk, according to survey studies. The rate of falls and injuries related to dogwalk exposure is unknown. Here, a two-part retrospective online survey was conducted to collect data on dogwalk incidents and injuries in 1603 Finnish agility dogs (232 included in both parts) over the six months preceding participation in the study. Data was collected before and after a competition regulation update affecting dogwalk approaches. Risk factors were evaluated with multivariate logistic regression models. Fall(s) from the dogwalk were reported in 15.2 % of responses, close call(s) in 30.1 % and injury secondary to dogwalk incident in 3.7 % during six months. There were estimated 2.6 falls (95 % CI 2.4–2.9) and 0.6 injuries (95 % CI 0.4–0.7) per 1000 dogwalks (n = 1538). Among incidents, 5 % (86/1705) resulted in an injury. Significant risk factors for falls and/or other incidents included higher wither height (OR 1.33–1.74 per 10 cm) and greater exposure to the dogwalk (OR 1.03–1.06 per 10 dogwalks) (n = 452 to n = 1308). Age (OR 0.77–0.87 per year) and dogs’ higher competition level were significant protective factors for falls and/or other incidents (n = 452 to n = 1308). Border Collies (OR 2.73, p = 0.004), taller dogs (OR 1.43 per 10 cm, p = 0.033) and dogs of inexperienced handlers (p = 0.003) had an increased odds of injury (n = 1308). Reduction in the incidence after the regulation update was not detected. The current dogwalk poses a risk to agility dogs’ welfare, requiring further scientific studies to investigate safety improvements.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"248 ","pages":"Article 106771"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145834532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Laura Cunha Silva , Parimala Mohanty , Reda Zahri , Salome Dürr , Harish Kumar Tiwari
{"title":"Demographics of free-roaming dogs in Guwahati, India: Assessing population characteristics and comparing population size estimation methods","authors":"Laura Cunha Silva , Parimala Mohanty , Reda Zahri , Salome Dürr , Harish Kumar Tiwari","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106773","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106773","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>India has the highest global burden of rabies, accounting for approximately 35 % of all human rabies deaths worldwide with free-roaming dogs (FRDs) playing a critical role in the spread of the disease. While several studies have assessed FRD demographics in India, none have focused on Northeast India, particularly Assam. This study 1) characterizes FRD demographics in two urban settings in Guwahati, Assam, 2) estimates FRD populations using Program MARK’s Huggin's heterogeneity models and the Application SuperDuplicates (AS), and 3) evaluates AS as a resource effective alternative to Huggin's heterogeneity models for population estimation. Photographic capture-recapture surveys were conducted in two distinct locations in Guwahati: a market area without defined boundaries and a gated university campus. We detected 183 and 141 unique FRDs at the market and campus sites, respectively. The FRD in the market area were significantly younger, exhibited lower sterilization rates, and tended to be in poorer physical condition compared to those in the campus area; differences in body condition and collar presence were not statistically significant. Population estimates using Huggin's heterogeneity models revealed a FRD population size of 252 individuals (using the Chao estimator in the Huggin’s model) at the market site, while campus estimates varied between 161 during morning transects and 153 during evening transects (using the Jackknife estimator) and with morning and evening combined (using the Chao estimator) of 164 FRD. The AS estimated 246 FRD in the market and 178 on campus. Since the AS only requires data from two transect surveys, all possible survey combinations were built to estimate the FRD population size via AS and over 70 % similarity was observed between all these AS estimates compared to Huggin's heterogeneity model results. Within the same urban setting, variations free-roaming dog population characteristics and estimates across study sites were likely based on differences in local environmental and socio-spatial factors. Application SuperDuplicates showed to be a reliable, efficient alternative to Huggin's heterogeneity models for estimating FRD populations, with compatibility above the 70 % threshold whilst requiring information from two surveys only.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"248 ","pages":"Article 106773"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145885270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Use of dogs trained to search for wild boar carcasses in passive surveillance as the most effective tool to control the spread of African swine fever in Poland","authors":"Mateusz Kruszyński , Magdalena Larska , Beata Banaszak , Jadwiga Świlak , Patryk Tarka , Zygmunt Pejsak , Małgorzata Juszkiewicz , Grzegorz Woźniakowski","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2026.106784","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2026.106784","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The most effective proactive measures to combat the African swine fever virus (ASFV) and mitigate the financial losses associated with its spread to pig farms is to minimise its transmission within the wild boar population. The aim of the study was to compare traditional human ground search with alternative methods using specially trained detection dogs, hunting dogs and drones in locating and removing wild boar carcasses as the main source of ASFV infection. Most of wild boar carcasses 397 out of 400 (99.2 %) were found by the trained search dogs, while other 3 were located using hunting dogs. Also, the efficiency of carcass retrieval with hunting dogs was much lower than with trained dogs with 0.002 versus 2.08 ASFV RT-PCR positive WB carcasses found per search. Searches with drones, humans or mixed method were found unsuccessful. The search efficiency using dogs trained for this purpose was on average more than two and a half times higher than the values determined by the EFSA ASF exit strategy developed using the wild boar approach. The carcass retrieval by search dogs was associated with ASF seasonality in wild boar in the central Europe, however, was not affected by the harsher conditions of winter months. This is particularly important due to the ASFV ability to survive in low temperatures. The study revealed also local variation in the sampling efforts which could have affected effectivity of ASF passive surveillance. To our knowledge, the presented research is the first attempt to evaluate the use of dogs to locate wild boar carcasses as a key element of passive surveillance in ASF control.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"248 ","pages":"Article 106784"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146012171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Eunjeong Jeon , Jongkyoo Kim , Mooyoung Jung , Jihwan Lee , Donghyeon Kim , Seungmin Ha
{"title":"Machine learning-based detection of subclinical and clinical ketosis in Holstein cows using sensor data during the transition period","authors":"Eunjeong Jeon , Jongkyoo Kim , Mooyoung Jung , Jihwan Lee , Donghyeon Kim , Seungmin Ha","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106769","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106769","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ketosis, a metabolic disorder in dairy cows, poses a risk of substantial economic losses, particularly when it progresses to clinical forms. Previous prediction models relied on smart farming data and binary classification, without incorporating risk factors such as calf birth weight. Therefore, we aimed to develop a multiclass classification model to differentiate non- (NK), subclinical (SCK), and clinical (CK) ketosis in Holstein cows by integrating behavioral indicators, cow-specific traits, and environmental variables. We hypothesized that integrating these diverse data sources would improve the ability of the model to accurately classify ketosis severity during the transition period. A total of 132 Holsteins were monitored for 21 d after calving using automatic monitoring (HR-TAG). Input features included activity, rumination time, calving age, calf birth weight, and calving season. Blood β-hydroxybutyrate concentrations were measured at eight time points, and cows were classified into NK (<1.2 mmol/L), SCK (1.2–2.9 mmol/L), or CK (≥3.0 mmol/L) groups based on the highest BHBA value recorded across the sampling period. Five machine-learning algorithms—K-nearest neighbors, decision tree, random forest, support vector machine, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)—were trained on 70 % of the dataset and optimized using 10-fold cross-validation, and final model performance was evaluated on the remaining 30 % test set. XGBoost performed best, achieving an accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, F-measure, kappa, and an area under the curve of 0.959, 0.935, 0.966, 0.951, 0.918, and 0.950, respectively. Feature importance analysis identified calving age, calf birth weight, and calving season as key predictors for ketosis severity. These results demonstrate that sensor-based behavioral traits, together with cow-specific characteristics and environmental factors, enable accurate classification of ketosis severity and support the application of precision dairy technologies for early detection and tailored herd management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"248 ","pages":"Article 106769"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145799683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jaden M. Carlson , T. Brendan Murphy , Luke O’Grady , Jonas Brock , Maria P. Guelbenzu-Gonzalo , David A. Graham , Guy McGrath , Jamie A. Tratalos , Rafael de Andrade Moral , Niamh Mimnagh , Niamh L. Field , John F. Mee , Damien J. Barrett , Elizabeth A. Lane , Conor G. McAloon
{"title":"Using herd frailty estimates from survival models in a mortality-based syndromic surveillance system","authors":"Jaden M. Carlson , T. Brendan Murphy , Luke O’Grady , Jonas Brock , Maria P. Guelbenzu-Gonzalo , David A. Graham , Guy McGrath , Jamie A. Tratalos , Rafael de Andrade Moral , Niamh Mimnagh , Niamh L. Field , John F. Mee , Damien J. Barrett , Elizabeth A. Lane , Conor G. McAloon","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2026.106785","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2026.106785","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Syndromic surveillance, which monitors clinical or production data as potential indicators of disease, can complement existing diagnostic testing strategies for a more comprehensive surveillance system. Consistently recorded mortality data with established identification and traceability routes across cattle sectors could be useful indicators to monitor in a syndromic surveillance system. Ireland is progressing toward the eradication of bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) virus following a programme initiated in 2013 to identify and remove calves that test positive for BVD. As the country prepares for BVD-free status under the EU Animal Health Law, stakeholders must consider strategies to detect possible re-emergence. Historical data from the eradication programme provides a unique opportunity to evaluate mortality-based syndromic surveillance for this purpose. This study aimed to develop a syndromic surveillance model based on calf mortality data and evaluate its use for early detection of BVD re-emergence in Ireland. For years 2014 through 2023, mixed-effects Cox proportional hazards models were built using calf mortality up to 100 days of age. Herd-level frailty estimates were extracted from these models for each year, which were then clustered to identify subgroups of herds with distinct temporal patterns in herd-level mortality hazard. Four separate thresholds were used to flag herds with increased calf mortality hazard. Overall, these flags demonstrated high specificity (86–92 %) but low sensitivity (11–22 %) for herd-level BVD status, suggesting that this approach alone would not reliably detect BVD re-emergence. Nonetheless, this method could support Ireland’s ability to achieve and sustain BVD-free status while providing valuable insights for similar surveillance efforts more broadly. This methodology is adaptable to other species, diseases, and syndromes, making it a versatile tool for animal health surveillance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"248 ","pages":"Article 106785"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146019401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
José M. Hernández-Agudelo , Cristóbal Verdugo , Herman W. Barkema , Pamela Steuer , Carlos Tejeda , Fernando Ulloa , Miguel A. Salgado
{"title":"A bayesian analysis of phage-based qPCR and liquid culture for the early detection of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in young dairy calves","authors":"José M. Hernández-Agudelo , Cristóbal Verdugo , Herman W. Barkema , Pamela Steuer , Carlos Tejeda , Fernando Ulloa , Miguel A. Salgado","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106781","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106781","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Bovine paratuberculosis (PTB), caused by <em>Mycobacterium avium</em> subsp. <em>paratuberculosis</em> (MAP), is an endemic infectious disease causing significant economic losses, with infection typically occurring in the first months of life. However, early diagnostic in subclinical infected calves is challenging due to the paucibacillary nature and intermittent shedding of the pathogen, which limits the sensitivity (<em>Se)</em> of existing diagnostic tools. This study aimed to estimate and compare the diagnostic <em>Se</em> and specificity (<em>Sp)</em> of a Phage-Magnetic Separation (PhMS) qPCR assay against a qPCR-confirmed liquid culture for the early detection of MAP infection in young dairy calves. Using a Bayesian Latent Class Model (BLCM) that accounted for conditional dependence, we analyzed 528 fecal samples from dairy calves < 60 days of age from 39 commercial herds in Chile. The model revealed that both tests have comparable moderate median <em>Se</em> (PhMS = 45 %; culture = 51 %) and high median <em>Sp</em> (PhMS = 98 %; culture = 100 %) for MAP detection. However, tests were strongly negatively correlated in MAP-infected animals (correlation coefficient, ρDPhMS,Cult = −0.66; 95 % Posterior probability interval [PPI]: −0.91 to −0.12). This strong negative correlation indicates that the tests tend to detect different subsets of the infected population, making them complementary when used in a parallel testing strategy to maximize joint sensitivity (<em>Sej</em>). The estimated mean true within-herd prevalence in calves was 13 % (95 % PPI: 8–22 %). Additionally, the <em>Sp</em> of PhMS-qPCR decreased in high-prevalence herds, possibly due to passive shedding of the pathogen. Critically, leveraging their complementary nature, a parallel interpretation of the tests achieved a high combined <em>Se</em> of 92 % (95 % PPI: 53–100 %), while maintaining a high <em>Sp</em> of 97 %. In conclusion, PhMS-qPCR and qPCR-confirmed liquid culture are complementary diagnostic tools. Their combined use in a parallel testing strategy could provide a highly effective screening algorithm, making it a powerful approach for research settings aiming to maximize case detection.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"248 ","pages":"Article 106781"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145885269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}