Heather L Walker, Ryan S Miller, Laura W Pomeroy, Andreia G Arruda
{"title":"Characterizing risk factors for infection of Mycobacterium bovis between wild pigs and domestic cattle from an outbreak response - California, 1961-1967.","authors":"Heather L Walker, Ryan S Miller, Laura W Pomeroy, Andreia G Arruda","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2024.106399","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2024.106399","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In the United States (US), a national control program from bovine tuberculosis (bTB) has been successful at greatly reducing the incidence of Mycobacterium bovis infection in domestic cattle and mitigating exposure to humans. However, experience in many countries, including the US, has demonstrated that eradication of animal tuberculosis (TB) from wildlife can complicate disease control programs. Wild pigs may serve as an important maintenance species for TB, contributing to outbreaks in cattle and hampering disease control programs. In the US, on the Hawaiian island of Molokai, wild pigs facilitated TB transmission, but risk factors contributing to infection of TB were not characterized. To fill this gap, we retrospectively analyzed data from an outbreak of M. bovis in wild pigs and domestic cattle in California during 1961-1967. Using generalized linear models we investigated demographic risk factors (age and sex) for TB infection in wild pigs as well as the association among wild pig and domestic cattle prevalence. Our models demonstrated a predictive accuracy of 87.8 % and suggest adult female wild pigs have significantly lower odds of being TB positive (odds ratio (OR) = 0.41, p value = 0.022). Furthermore, our models identified a possible positive association between male wild pigs and TB status (OR = 2.37, p value = 0.055). We also found evidence of differences in geographic risks. Our findings contribute to the existing literature describing risk factors of M. bovis infection in wild pigs and can be used to support targeted surveillance activities in wild pigs.</p>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"235 ","pages":"106399"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142813913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A new web application for determining sample size in freedom-from-disease testing with imperfect tests.","authors":"Darren Michael Green","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2024.106397","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2024.106397","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Veterinary surveillance frequently requires study design for freedom-from-disease testing, specifying a sample size to balance higher statistical power with larger sample sizes against increased research and ethics costs, with the recognition that tests can generate false positive and negative results: i.e., tests exhibit imperfect sensitivity and specificity. In this paper, we revisit the mathematics behind exact calculations of sample size in terms of the binomial and hypergeometric distributions, and present a new algorithm - implemented and available to use in R as a Shiny application with a graphical user interface - to determine sample size for practical situations. Often, sample size calculations are based upon simulations or approximations, but we show here that exact calculations are feasible. In addition, we relax the liberal assumption - which provides conservative sample-size estimates - that sensitivity and specificity are known exactly, and instead assume both are Beta distributed with known hyperparameters. The application presented here was originally designed as a learning tool for students and is now made available for wider use.</p>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"235 ","pages":"106397"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142795005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The effect of temporal resolution and contact duration on Real-Time location system-based contact networks for confined feedlot cattle.","authors":"H L Seger, M W Sanderson, B J White, C Lanzas","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2024.106409","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2024.106409","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Empirical data on livestock contact networks are scarce but digital technologies are increasingly used to characterize animal behavior and describe the dynamics of contact networks. The objective of this study was to use contact network analysis to quantify contacts within three pens of feedlot cattle across three consecutive years at varying temporal resolutions to better inform the construction of network-based disease transmission models for cattle within confined-housing systems. We also aimed to describe the influence of the variation in Real-Time Location System (RTLS) average tag read rates and the effect of increasing minimum contact duration (MCD) on the contact networks of feedlot cattle. Three pens of feedlot steers were tagged with RTLS, one pen in each of three consecutive summers from 2017 to 2019. Contacts were defined with a spatial threshold of 0.71 m and an MCD of either 10, 30, or 60 seconds. Static, undirected, weighted contact networks were created for the full study duration and then split into daily (24-h), 6-h period, and hourly networks to better assess network heterogeneity. For the full study duration time scale, all three networks were found to be densely connected. The networks showed more heterogeneity in network density and clustering coefficient when smaller time scales (6-h period and hourly) were applied. When contacts were defined with a MCD of 30 or 60 seconds, the total number of contacts seen in each network decreased, indicating that most of the contacts observed in our networks may have been transient passing contacts. For example, the total defined contacts for the 2017 native read rate network were 930,843 at 10 s MCD, 95,570 at 30 s MCD, and 19,135 at 60 s MCD. Though the same system was used for all three years, variation in average tag read rate was observed (range: 2.2 readings/min (2018) to 7.4 readings/min (2017)). When the networks were down-scaled from higher average tag read rates to match lower tag read rates, the full study networks maintained similar network density and clustering, though the average edge weight between pairs decreased. Overall, the networks created here from high-resolution spatial and temporal contact observation data provide estimates for a contact network within a commercial US feedlot pen.</p>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"235 ","pages":"106409"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142872799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jie Pei, Yu Wang, Yanjun Zhou, Tao Huang, Jun Xie, Aizhen Guo, Yingyu Chen, Ian D Robertson
{"title":"True prevalence and spatial distribution of antibodies to Brucella spp. in goat populations in Hubei Province, People's Republic of China: Progress toward disease elimination.","authors":"Jie Pei, Yu Wang, Yanjun Zhou, Tao Huang, Jun Xie, Aizhen Guo, Yingyu Chen, Ian D Robertson","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2024.106414","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2024.106414","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Caprine brucellosis, mainly caused by Brucella melitensis, remains a significant zoonotic threat worldwide, affecting animal productivity, welfare, and public health. This study aimed to estimate the true prevalence (TP) and spatial distribution of antibodies to Brucella spp. among goat populations in Hubei Province, China. In 2021, approximately 1.4 million serum samples were collected from 23,126 goat flocks across 82 counties of 16 municipal regions of Hubei Province. A combination of the Rose Bengal Test and Serum Agglutination Test in series was used to detect antibodies against Brucella spp. A hierarchical Bayesian Latent Class Model was used to account for imperfect diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of the tests, conditional dependence between the two tests, and hierarchical data structure to estimate the TP and the probability of achieving a 95 % probability of having a TP below 0.1 % for each county and municipal region. Apparent prevalence was 0.051 % and 0.536 % at the animal and flock level, respectively. The median animal level TP in the 82 counties was 0.0088 % (Range: 0.0008 %, 9.3730 %), with 76.8 % of counties showing a median TP estimate below 0.1 %. Counties containing positive goats were mainly clustered in Huanggang and Huangshi, and counties bordering positive counties had a higher risk of seropositivity. Notably, 52.4 % of counties achieved a 95 % probability with a TP below 0.1 %. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these findings across prior distributions. It was concluded that Hubei Province has achieved remarkable progress in caprine brucellosis elimination programs, and priority interventions should be given to positive counties and their bordering counties.</p>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"235 ","pages":"106414"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142927954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Key farm characteristics associated with the level of antimicrobial use in rosé veal production - A Danish database study.","authors":"Jeanette Kristensen, Amanda Brinch Kruse, Anne Mette Hostrup Kjeldsen, Liza Rosenbaum Nielsen","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2024.106406","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2024.106406","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Antimicrobial use (AMU) in veal production is high compared to other bovine production types and has been suggested as an area with potential for AMU reduction. High AMU is a public health concern due to its association with antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Identifying farm characteristics associated with AMU could provide valuable insights for stakeholders seeking to monitor and implement initiatives to reduce AMU. This study aimed at investigating farm characteristics associated with AMU in Danish rosé veal farms, which is the main veal production type in Denmark. The AMU and characteristics included were extracted from two Danish national databases; The Danish Central Husbandry Register (CHR) and the Danish Veterinary Medicines Statistics Program (VetStat). Characteristics included were farm size, mortality, number of suppliers, sites per farm, and farm-level composition of animals with regards to sex and breed. The 118 farms included in the study received 41 % of the total amount of antimicrobials prescribed for Danish calves and young stock in 2020 measured in Animal Daily Doses (ADD). A multivariable linear regression model with the annual average farm-level AMU as outcome was created. AMU was measured as ADD per 100 animals per day (ADD100) and square root-transformed in the model. Increasing farm size and number of suppliers and decreasing proportion of crossbred bulls were found to be significantly associated with higher AMU. However, proportion of crossbred bulls was correlated with proportion of females. Separating the effects of breed and sex was not possible, partly due to the highly summarised data structure. Mortality and number of sites were not significantly associated with AMU. Farms with the type \"starter-farms\" has previously been shown to have a higher AMU compared to other rosé veal farm types. An important finding in this study was that grouping multiple sites into farms by using ownership data made it possible to summarise AMU for the full line of production from arrival at the veal farm to exit for slaughter. The results and approaches from this paper present an opportunity for repeated evaluation of farm characteristics associated with AMU, which could be used to continuously adapt and target AMU monitoring and control. In addition, it is done on existing surveillance data which keeps the cost of the study low in terms of data collection and data management.</p>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"235 ","pages":"106406"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142823843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Allice Braga, Angélica Cavalheiro Bertagnolli, Vinícius da Rosa Fanfa, Rogério de Oliveira Rodrigues, Alice Faé, Gabriela Ramos, Rafaella Cristina Morais, Sidia Maria Callegari-Jacques, Cristine Cerva, Fabiana Quoos Mayer
{"title":"Unveiling mycobacterial infections in Brazilian swine: Insights from epidemiological and diagnostic studies.","authors":"Allice Braga, Angélica Cavalheiro Bertagnolli, Vinícius da Rosa Fanfa, Rogério de Oliveira Rodrigues, Alice Faé, Gabriela Ramos, Rafaella Cristina Morais, Sidia Maria Callegari-Jacques, Cristine Cerva, Fabiana Quoos Mayer","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2024.106404","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2024.106404","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Stringent sanitary standards are imperative for swine production, ensuring high biosecurity and safe meat. However, granulomatous lesions, often detected as \"lymphadenitis\" in slaughterhouses, lack routine laboratory examination, potentially overlooking tuberculosis among other etiologies. This study aimed to: (i) explore epidemiological variables linked to swine carcasses condemned due to \"tuberculosis\" or \"lymphadenitis\" in Rio Grande do Sul, southern Brazil in a retrospective survey; and (ii) evaluate the frequency of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in granulomatous lymphadenitis lesions. Epidemiological data from the public surveillance system including farm origin, slaughter location, season, producer type and the inspection scope, were evaluated by their association with the occurrence of animal transport guides (ATG) with at least one animal condemned due to lymphadenitis or tuberculosis. For the prospective study, tissue samples from 118 animals with granulomatous lymphadenitis lesions were examined through histopathology and bacterial isolation. The frequency of ATG with at least one carcass condemned due to lymphadenitis or tuberculosis was 2.27 % and 0.027 % respectively. The factors associated with lymphadenitis were slaughter location, origin, producer type, and inspection scope (state or municipal). However, no significant risk factors emerged for tuberculosis in multivariable analysis. Histopathology confirmed granulomatous lymphadenitis in 44.92 % of lymph nodes, and M. tuberculosis var. bovis was isolated in 2.54 % of cases. Although the tuberculosis frequency (0.002 %) was low, it surpassed federal inspection data (<0.001 %), evidencing that laboratory diagnosis should be considered in such lesions. This study underscores the need for improved diagnostic routine in slaughterhouses to enhance biosecurity and public health protection in the swine industry.</p>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"235 ","pages":"106404"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142813930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Prediction of ketosis using radial basis function neural network in dairy cattle farming.","authors":"Edyta A Bauer, Wojciech Jagusiak","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2024.106410","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2024.106410","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The purpose of the paper was to apply an Artificial Neural Networks with Radial Basis Function to develop an application model for diagnosing a subclinical ketosis type I and II in dairy cattle. While building the neural network model, applied methodology was compatible to the procedures used in Data Mining processes. The data set was created based on the composition of milk samples of 1520 Polish Holstein-Friesian cows. The milk samples were collected during test-day milkings and made available by Polish Federation of Cattle Breeders and Milk Producers. The milk composition parameters were used as the input variables for RBF network models. The value of the output variable was determined based on the content of β-hydroxybutyric acid in blood of cows. In the next stage of the work, the qualities of the pre-selected models were compared and the best ones were chosen. The sensitivity and specificity as well as the size of the AUC (Area Under the Curve) under the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) were taken as the main criteria for network models evaluation. The model characterized by sensitivity of 0.86, specificity of 0.71 and AUC of 0.89 was selected for ketosis type I. The optimal for ketosis type II showed the sensitivity and specificity 0.81 and 0.75, respectively, and the size of AUC above 0.85. Chosen models were recorded using the predictive modelling markup language (PMML) for data mining models to be shared and used between the different applications.</p>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"235 ","pages":"106410"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142896963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Quantification of antibiotic usage against Streptococcus suis in weaner pigs in the Netherlands between 2017 and 2021.","authors":"Anita Dame-Korevaar, Chretien Gielen, Jobke van Hout, Martijn Bouwknegt, Lluís Fabà, Manouk Vrieling","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2024.106400","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2024.106400","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Streptococcus suis is an important pig pathogen that can cause severe disease in the post-weaning period. As there are no commercial vaccines available in the Netherlands, antibiotic treatment is often necessary to control disease. S. suis is regarded as one of the major causes of antibiotic prescription in weaned pigs, but scientific studies supporting this claim with quantitative data are lacking. The aim of this study was to obtain insight in, and to quantify usage of, antibiotics against S. suis in weaner pigs at sow farms in the Netherlands. Three sources of data were used, including 1) total antibiotic usage in weaner pigs in the Netherlands, as yearly reported by the Netherlands Veterinary Medicines Institute (SDa), and estimates from 2) pig veterinarians and 3) pig farmers on the relative amount of antibiotics prescribed against S. suis, via questionnaires. Information from the SDa on the total amount of antibiotic usage was combined with the estimates of the veterinarians to estimate the antibiotic usage against S. suis in weaner pigs. Our study shows that ∼90 % of the total amount of amoxicillin (AMOX) and ampicillin (AMPI) prescribed in weaner pigs is used for treatment of disease caused by S. suis (S. suis disease). Of all orally prescribed antibiotics against S. suis, AMOX comprises 85 % of the total absolute usage expressed by the mean defined daily dosage per animal farm (3.2 - 5.4 mean DDDA<sub>F</sub>). Furthermore, veterinarians reported that at farms with structural S. suis disease problems second choice antibiotics (AMOX, AMPI) are more often prescribed than at farms with incidental S. suis disease. All together, we estimated that S. suis disease accounts for about 1/3rd of the total antibiotic usage in weaner pigs. This study is the first to quantify antibiotic usage against S. suis in weaner pigs and shows that S. suis is a hotspot of antibiotic usage. This underlines the severity and relevance of S. suis disease and the need for alternative control measures.</p>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"235 ","pages":"106400"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142791777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sara C Sequeira, Samantha R Locke, Greg Habing, Andréia G Arruda
{"title":"Combining different sources of movement data to strengthen traceability and disease surveillance.","authors":"Sara C Sequeira, Samantha R Locke, Greg Habing, Andréia G Arruda","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106442","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106442","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Recent concerns with food safety in the United States have highlighted the importance of traceability systems in animal production chains. Yet, adoption of these systems presents various challenges. Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection (ICVIs) are required for most interstate animal movements and are considered the most representative source of livestock movement data. However, exceptions exist, where Owner Shipper Statements (OSSs) are often used as an alternative but previously unexplored. Calf movement networks are understudied, yet important in understanding animal and human disease transmission dynamics. The objective of this study was to use movement records to describe calf networks within a US region and explore how the inclusion of OSSs impact the structure of calf networks built using ICVIs. Calf movement records to and from Ohio were obtained through ICVIs and OSSs from June 2021 to June 2022. To explore and compare movement patterns, network analysis was performed individually for an ICVI-based network and a network combining both document types. Zip codes were considered nodes and calf movements (cattle up to 4 months) were considered links. Whole-network and node-level parameters were calculated, and Mann-Whitney U tests were performed to evaluate statistical differences by network type. Community detection was performed to investigate the underlying structure of calf networks in Ohio. The frequency of animal movements recorded through OSS (n = 766, 49.8 %) and ICVIs (n = 772, 50.2 %) was similar. Most animal movements included mixed sex (60.0 %), dairy breeds (81.6 %) and animals up to one week old (74.1 %). There were major differences in the network structure with OSSs compared to ICVIs exclusively. Movements recorded through OSSs showed larger median number of animals per movement (60; IQR 23-105) compared to ICVIs (49; IQR 16-80); reaching up to 696 calves per batch of transported calves. Failing to include OSSs would have resulted in an incomplete network, excluding 40.3 % of the zip codes (n = 206) represented in this database. The ICVI-based network involved fewer zip codes across states, whose connections were sparser than in the combined network. The two analyzed networks revealed contrasting centrality results, especially for out-going geographical regions (P < 0.01), suggesting a discrepancy in their potential to influence disease transmission dynamics. Moreover, including OSSs resulted in a network with lower closeness centrality scores (P < 0.01). Results suggested heterogeneous patterns of calf movements, depending on the source of records, and emphasized the importance of incorporating multiple sources of movement data for the development of targeted disease surveillance strategies, particularly using community detection analysis.</p>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"237 ","pages":"106442"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143079868","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M Focker, C P A van Wagenberg, J P van der Berg, M A P M van Asseldonk, T H G Vollebregt, H J Wisselink
{"title":"The resilience of the Dutch pork supply chain to Toxoplasma gondii.","authors":"M Focker, C P A van Wagenberg, J P van der Berg, M A P M van Asseldonk, T H G Vollebregt, H J Wisselink","doi":"10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106437","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106437","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Toxoplasma gondii (T. gondii) is a parasite leading to a substantial disease burden. An important source of toxoplasmosis is raw or undercooked pork. Our aim is to develop a model that can assess the resilience of the Dutch pork supply chain to T. gondii shocks, measured in Disability adjusted life years (DALYs), and the cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) of control measures that improve the resilience of the supply chain. We developed a farm-to-fork model to simulate T. gondii through the pork supply chain. We modelled two shocks: 1) young cats on the farm, a long-term shock, and 2) feeding pigs a batch of contaminated goat whey, a short-term shock, and two control measures: 1) sterilising cats at farm level, and 2) freezing meat at processing level. When facing shock 1, all control measures can be considered cost-effective with a CER between k€3 and k€24 per DALY in the first year and between k€1 and k€13 per DALY in subsequent years. When facing shock 2, freezing unheated meat, or freezing unheated meat and large pork cuts, or freezing all pork products led to a CER of respectively k€21, k€10, and k€46 per DALY in the first year. However, in subsequent years, the CER ranged from k€162 to k€820 per DALY, which cannot be considered cost-effective anymore. Control measures are more cost-effective in case of a long-term shock than in case of an isolated short-term shock. In the latter case, a control measure can be cost-effective if applied only for a limited time after the shock has been detected. The developed model can be used by decision makers to select effective control measures against toxoplasmosis caused by pork consumption.</p>","PeriodicalId":20413,"journal":{"name":"Preventive veterinary medicine","volume":"237 ","pages":"106437"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143074778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}