Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications最新文献

{"title":"Productivity dispersion and allocation of labor among firms in economics","authors":"Yoshi Fujiwara ,&nbsp;Hideaki Aoyama","doi":"10.1016/j.physa.2026.131286","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.physa.2026.131286","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Inequalities are ubiquitous in economics. In this paper, we investigate productivity dispersion and the allocation of workers among different levels of productivity and output, by using a large dataset for small and medium-sized companies at a nationwide scale. Focusing on the manufacturing sector and small and medium levels of productivity, where more workers are distributed among higher levels of productivity, we first observe that the productivity dispersion can be characterized by a power-law distribution. We then have new empirical findings in a pivotal role of workers’ allocation among different levels of output as a key to understand their allocation among different levels of productivity. We also propose a stochastic process, mathematically a jump Markov process, in which workers are allocated to firms of differing output and productivity, interrupted by transitions to unemployment, where transitions are coupled with growth and shrink of firms output that relate with fluctuations of demand.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20152,"journal":{"name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","volume":"685 ","pages":"Article 131286"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145980824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Subdiffusion supports barrier crossing: Mittag-Leffler noise autocorrelation and reactive flux formalism as evidence","authors":"Evangelos Bakalis,&nbsp;Francesco Zerbetto","doi":"10.1016/j.physa.2026.131281","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.physa.2026.131281","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rate constants govern the overcoming of potential energy barriers in chemical reactions. In the simplest approach, quasi-equilibrium in the presence of a white noise bath is advocated as the triggering mechanism. Heat baths can be tricky; around the barrier, they can retain memory, which entails non-white noise. The generalised Langevin equation is here used as the underlying model with a noise term whose autocorrelation is described by a Mittag-Leffler function of one, two, or three parameters. In the framework of reactive flux formalism, the rate constant is calculated directly as a function of the barrier height, the friction coefficient, and the parameters of the employed Mittag-Leffler function. In the strong damping limit, because of the generality of the approach, it becomes clear that noises that lead to subdiffusion promote barrier crossing as opposed to those that support superdiffusion.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20152,"journal":{"name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","volume":"685 ","pages":"Article 131281"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145947895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Structural perturbations from peripheral node additions in temporal networks","authors":"Yu Lin ,&nbsp;Xinran Yang ,&nbsp;Zhuoming Ren","doi":"10.1016/j.physa.2026.131300","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.physa.2026.131300","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Temporal networks evolve through continuous structural changes, yet the precise local–global effects of peripheral node entries remain underexplored. We propose a stepwise <span><math><mrow><mi>N</mi><mo>→</mo><mi>N</mi><mo>+</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></math></span> evolution framework that identifies peripheral nodes as those occupying the first shell via k-shell decomposition and analyzes temporal evolution through cumulative snapshots keyed to first-appearance times. Our local–global contrast mechanism captures micro-level structural perturbations in the neighborhoods of new entrants and links them to macro-level shifts in network centralities and global topological properties. Using a large-scale online social network dataset, we demonstrate that peripheral entry induces a characteristic “initial sensitivity <span><math><mo>→</mo></math></span> rapid decay <span><math><mo>→</mo></math></span> long-run smoothing” response pattern at both local and global scales. These findings offer theoretical insights into the self-regulatory dynamics of evolving networks and provide practical guidelines for stability optimization, diffusion control, and structural intervention in complex systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20152,"journal":{"name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","volume":"685 ","pages":"Article 131300"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146024365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Metro passenger alighting flow prediction for real-time crowding information: A deep learning approach based on sequential images","authors":"Xiling Lin ,&nbsp;Qun Chen ,&nbsp;Yan Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.physa.2026.131322","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.physa.2026.131322","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the continued increase in metro ridership, real-time crowding information (RTCI) has become essential for improving travel experience and making better use of carriage space. By accurately predicting the number of passengers alighting from each carriage and estimating available space in real time, it is possible to guide waiting passengers to better boarding choices and reduce congestion. Most existing RTCI studies focus on total passenger flow prediction or instantaneous crowd level estimation, while paying little attention to how alighting behavior of passengers directly affects carriage space availability. To address this issue, this study presents three main contributions. (1) A feature vector is constructed to represent the dynamic state of a carriage, along with a mapping function that describes the evolution of available space, forming a theoretical basis for RTCI generation.(2) A deep learning model based on image sequences is developed by integrating EfficientNet-B0 with LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), enabling accurate prediction of the number of passengers alighting at the carriage level. (3) Systematic experiments using a dataset from the Changsha metro demonstrate that the method achieves high prediction accuracy while maintaining computational efficiency. Comparative and ablation studies confirm the importance of each core component in improving model performance. The findings offer technical support for optimizing carriage selection and enhancing metro service operations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20152,"journal":{"name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","volume":"685 ","pages":"Article 131322"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The correlated cluster mean-field approach to the frustrated Ising model on the honeycomb lattice","authors":"Carlos H.D. Batista ,&nbsp;M. Schmidt ,&nbsp;F.M. Zimmer","doi":"10.1016/j.physa.2026.131305","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.physa.2026.131305","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>J</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>1</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>-<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>J</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> Ising model on the honeycomb lattice, considering ferromagnetic interactions between first neighbors (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>J</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>1</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>) and antiferromagnetic interactions between second neighbors (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>J</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>). Our analysis is based on the correlated cluster mean-field theory, which is adapted to incorporate competing interactions, providing estimates for the behavior of magnetization, internal energy, entropy, specific heat, and short-range correlations of the model. Our results indicate that the transition temperature of the ferromagnetic–paramagnetic phase transition decreases toward zero as the frustration maximum (<span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>J</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub><mo>/</mo><msub><mrow><mi>J</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>1</mn></mrow></msub><mo>=</mo><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn><mo>/</mo><mn>4</mn></mrow></math></span>) is approached, and the thermodynamic quantities indicate only continuous phase transitions for <span><math><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn><mo>/</mo><mn>4</mn><mo>&lt;</mo><msub><mrow><mi>J</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub><mo>/</mo><msub><mrow><mi>J</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>1</mn></mrow></msub><mo>≤</mo><mn>0</mn></mrow></math></span>. The critical temperature and the nature of phase transitions provided by the correlated cluster mean-field method are in excellent agreement with very recent Monte Carlo simulations for the model. Furthermore, the specific heat exhibits a broad maximum within the PM phase under strong frustration, suggesting the onset of a correlated paramagnetic state with high entropy content at low temperatures. Therefore, our findings support that frustration not only suppresses the ferromagnetic long-range order, but also drives significant changes in the thermodynamics and short-range correlations of the model.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20152,"journal":{"name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","volume":"685 ","pages":"Article 131305"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of obstacle number and layout on evacuation of high-density crowd at exits","authors":"Jinfeng Hu,&nbsp;Weiguo Song,&nbsp;Hang Yu,&nbsp;Xintong Li,&nbsp;Jinyao Ren,&nbsp;Jun Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.physa.2026.131275","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.physa.2026.131275","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Building exits are critical bottlenecks during evacuation. In this study, the effects of obstacle number and placement near exits on pedestrian flow are studied. Evacuation experiments are conducted, and obstacle number and layout, as well as competitiveness level, are considered in different scenarios. Pedestrian trajectory data along with pressure measurements at the exit are analyzed to assess evacuation efficiency, collective movement patterns, and force distribution. The results indicate that the impact of obstacles depends on their number, placement, and the level of competitiveness. Under high-competition conditions, appropriately placed obstacles increase evacuation efficiency by up to 29.6 %, reduce collective lateral rushes by 49.9 %, and improve the global alignment parameter by 26 %. Pressure measurements further indicate that the forces exerted on the exit wall are reduced when obstacles are used at an appropriate position. Based on experimental and theoretical analysis, the mechanisms by which obstacles influence evacuation dynamics are elucidated. The study may provide empirical evidence for understanding crowd behavior and offer practical guidance for crowd management in high-density environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20152,"journal":{"name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","volume":"685 ","pages":"Article 131275"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146024808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fourier’s law breakdown for the planar-rotor chain with long-range interactions","authors":"Henrique Santos Lima ,&nbsp;Constantino Tsallis ,&nbsp;Deniz Eroglu ,&nbsp;Ugur Tirnakli","doi":"10.1016/j.physa.2026.131314","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.physa.2026.131314","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;div&gt;Fourier’s law, which linearly relates heat flux to the negative gradient of temperature, is a fundamental principle in thermal physics and widely applied across materials science and engineering. However, its validity in low-dimensional systems with long-range interactions remains only partially understood. We investigate here the thermal transport along a one-dimensional chain of classical planar rotators with algebraically decaying interactions &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mn&gt;1&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;mo&gt;/&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;msup&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;r&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;α&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/msup&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; with distance &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;r&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; (&lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;α&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;≥&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mn&gt;0&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;), known as the inertial &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;α&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;-XY model. Using nonequilibrium simulations with thermal reservoirs at the boundaries, we numerically study the thermal conductance &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;σ&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; as a function of system size &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;L&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;, temperature &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;T&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;, and &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;α&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;. We find that the results obey a universal scaling law characterized by a stretched &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;q&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;-exponential function with &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;α&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;-dependent parameters. Notably, a threshold at &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;α&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;c&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;mo&gt;≈&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; separates two regimes: for &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;α&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;≥&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;α&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;c&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;, Fourier’s law holds with size-independent conductivity &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;κ&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;≡&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mi&gt;L&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mi&gt;σ&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;, while for &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;α&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;&lt;&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;α&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;c&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;, anomalous transport is observed, corroborating (with higher precision) the results reported in &lt;span&gt;&lt;span&gt;Phys. Rev. E 94, 042117 (2016)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;svg&gt;&lt;path&gt;&lt;/path&gt;&lt;/svg&gt;&lt;/span&gt;. These findings provide a quantitative framework for understanding the breakdown of Fourier’s law in systems with long-range interactions. The simulation is carried out by assuming the equations of motion, which include Langevin heat baths applied to the first and last particles, and are integrated using the Velocity Verlet algorithm. The conductance is calculated from the connection between Lagrangian heat flux and heat equation for typical values of &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;(&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mi&gt;α&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;,&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mi&gt;T&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;,&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mi&gt;L&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;)&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;. For large &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;L&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;, the results can be collapsed into an universal &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;q&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;-stretched exponential form, namely &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;msup&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;L&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;δ&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;α&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/msup&gt;&lt;mi&gt;σ&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;∝&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;msubsup&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;e&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;q&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;α&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;","PeriodicalId":20152,"journal":{"name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","volume":"685 ","pages":"Article 131314"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146024360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spectral mechanism and nearly reducible transfer matrices for pseudotransitions in one-dimensional systems","authors":"Onofre Rojas","doi":"10.1016/j.physa.2026.131295","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.physa.2026.131295","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While true phase transitions are forbidden in one-dimensional systems with short-range interactions, several models have recently been shown to exhibit sharp yet analytic thermodynamic anomalies that mimic thermal phase transitions. We show that this behavior arises from transfer matrices that are mathematically irreducible but possess a nearly block-diagonal structure due to the weak contribution of off-diagonal Boltzmann weights in the low-temperature regime. This results in weakly coupled competing sectors whose eigenvalue competition produces abrupt crossovers without nonanalyticity, a mechanism we term nearly block-diagonal irreducible. A key thermodynamic signature of such pseudotransitions is that the residual entropy at the interface remains bounded between the residual entropies of the competing sectors. We develop a general spectral framework to describe this behavior and apply it to two representative models: the Ising chain with internal degeneracy (Doniach model) and a hexagonal nanowire chain with mixed spin-1/2 and spin-1 components. In the first case, we derive exact expressions for the pseudo-critical temperature and residual entropy. In the second, we reduce the full 1458 × 1458 transfer matrix via symmetry decomposition and construct a low-rank effective matrix that accurately captures the crossover between quasi-ferromagnetic and quasi-core-ferromagnetic regimes. Our results demonstrate that pseudotransitions can be understood as spectral phenomena emerging from irreducible but functionally decoupled structures within the transfer matrix.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20152,"journal":{"name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","volume":"685 ","pages":"Article 131295"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145980820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Opportunity polarization: A divided world","authors":"Yong Tao ,&nbsp;Hualong Li","doi":"10.1016/j.physa.2026.131284","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.physa.2026.131284","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The phenomenon of escalating global inequality, where the top 1 % are amassing an ever-larger share of total wealth, has been widely documented. To shed light on this trend, we analyze two decades of household income data from the United States, China, and the United Kingdom, revealing that their income distributions can be characterized approximately by a two-class decomposition: a broad exponential distribution transitioning into a Pareto distribution in the upper-income tail. Based on this decomposition, we apply the Dragon-King test to monitor the shifts of statistical representatives of income segments between the exponential and Pareto regions, observing a significant increase in their income share upon entering the latter. This pattern is attributed to the positive correlation between earning probability and past income accumulation, intrinsic to the Pareto distribution. Conversely, within the exponential region, income growth is statistically independent of current income, reflecting more equitable opportunities. This research highlights opportunity polarization favoring certain top earners.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20152,"journal":{"name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","volume":"685 ","pages":"Article 131284"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145980823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Graph machine learning for flight delay prediction due to holding maneuver","authors":"Jorge L. Franco ,&nbsp;Manoel V. Machado Neto ,&nbsp;Filipe A.N. Verri ,&nbsp;Diego R. Amancio","doi":"10.1016/j.physa.2026.131318","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.physa.2026.131318","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flight delays due to holding maneuvers are a critical and costly phenomenon in aviation, driven by the need to manage air traffic congestion and ensure safety. Holding maneuvers occur when aircraft are instructed to circle in designated airspace, often due to factors such as airport congestion, adverse weather, or air traffic control restrictions. This study models the prediction of flight delays due to holding maneuvers as a graph problem, leveraging advanced Graph Machine Learning (Graph ML) techniques to capture complex interdependencies in air traffic networks. Holding maneuvers, while crucial for safety, cause increased fuel usage, emissions, and passenger dissatisfaction, making accurate prediction essential for operational efficiency. Traditional machine learning models, typically using tabular data, often overlook spatial–temporal relations within air traffic data. To address this, we model the problem of predicting holding as edge feature prediction in a directed (multi)graph where we apply both CatBoost, enriched with graph features capturing network centrality and connectivity, and Graph Attention Networks (GATs), which excel in relational data contexts. Our results indicate that CatBoost outperforms GAT in this imbalanced dataset, effectively predicting holding events and offering interpretability through graph-based feature importance. Additionally, we discuss the model’s potential operational impact through a web-based tool that allows users to simulate real-time delay predictions. This research underscores the viability of graph-based approaches for predictive analysis in aviation, with implications for enhancing fuel efficiency, reducing delays, and improving passenger experience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20152,"journal":{"name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","volume":"685 ","pages":"Article 131318"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}