{"title":"A neural network method for the escape rate in metastable systems","authors":"Tao Zhou , Han Zhou , Ming-Gen Li , Shiwei Yan","doi":"10.1016/j.physa.2025.130759","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.physa.2025.130759","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the escape rate of systems in metastable potentials by applying a neural network method. Due to the nonlinearity of potentials, traditional methods are unable to provide universal results, while the neural network method has the potential to solve the difficulty. In this work, time-dependent probability distributions of metastable systems are calculated by the neural network method. The corresponding escape rate is consistent with the Kramers formula. When applied to nuclear fission, a universal fission rate is obtained. However, various approaches can only be employed under certain conditions. Furthermore, the fission rate is significantly influenced by the temperature of the composite nucleus. The neural network method developed in this study can be applied to investigate the escape dynamics of complex systems in physics, chemistry, and biology.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20152,"journal":{"name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","volume":"674 ","pages":"Article 130759"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144331339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tao Wang , Zhichao Zhang , Tingting Nong , Wenke Zhang , Yijun Tian , Yi Ma , Eric Wai Ming Lee , Meng Shi
{"title":"Simulating pedestrian movement in T-junction corridor: A novel vision-driven convolutional graph attention model with a dataset from experiments","authors":"Tao Wang , Zhichao Zhang , Tingting Nong , Wenke Zhang , Yijun Tian , Yi Ma , Eric Wai Ming Lee , Meng Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.physa.2025.130775","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.physa.2025.130775","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the rapid pace of urbanisation, the safety and efficiency of pedestrian traffic face increasingly severe challenges, particularly in densely populated public areas. Optimising pedestrian flow effectively has therefore become a critical issue requiring urgent attention. To address this challenge, this study proposes a vision-driven convolutional graph attention model (VI-CGAM) for simulating pedestrian future movements. The VI-CGAM comprises three components: a visual information-based interaction graph construction module, a graph attention network-based spatial feature extraction module, and a convolutional neural network-based temporal feature extraction module. In addition, this study conducted a series of experiments on pedestrian diverging and merging in T-junction of varying widths, collecting key data using unmanned aerial vehicle to construct a novel T-junction pedestrian movement dataset. The results show that VI-CGAM accurately simulates pedestrian trajectories, as well as the density and flow rate characteristics in key areas. Furthermore, ablation studies were conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of each component of VI-CGAM. This study provides a robust algorithmic support and valuable data resources for intelligent transportation systems, with the potential to improve pedestrian flow management and safety planning in public spaces.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20152,"journal":{"name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","volume":"674 ","pages":"Article 130775"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144321219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Stanislaw Lasocki , Vasileios G. Karakostas , Eleftheria E. Papadimitriou
{"title":"Clustering indications before the Mw7.0 2020 Samos, Greece, main shock as revealed in an equivalent dimensions space","authors":"Stanislaw Lasocki , Vasileios G. Karakostas , Eleftheria E. Papadimitriou","doi":"10.1016/j.physa.2025.130777","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.physa.2025.130777","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The transformation to equivalent dimensions, which offers a novel approach for investigating seismic processes was engaged in analyzing the preparatory phase of the 2020 Samos, Greece, M<sub>w</sub>7.0 main shock. The analysis considered earthquakes between 2006 and October 2020, just before the main shock occurrence, covering an area extended three times the length of the main rupture. The earthquake occurrence times, epicentral geographical coordinates, and magnitudes were used to evaluate triplets comprising the magnitudes, waiting times – the intervals since the previous earthquake, and epicentral offsets – the distances between the epicenters of this and the previous earthquake. After transforming these new parameters into equivalent dimensions, their triplets became points in the [0,1] cube. The points were linked to the times of earthquake occurrences. The average distance between these points, calculated within consecutive 50–event data windows, was used to track the evolution of the seismic process. Results revealed a distinct pattern, in which the average distance was increasing steadily during the twelve-year period before the main shock. These temporal changes in the average distance were driven by a systematic evolution of the {magnitude, waiting time, epicentral offset} points clustering. Similar behavior of the average distance between the {magnitude, waiting time, epicentral offset} points was also observed in other strong earthquake cases. This suggests that tracking the time changes of the average distance between such new parameterizations of the earthquake process may also add, in the future, to earthquake forecasting methods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20152,"journal":{"name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","volume":"674 ","pages":"Article 130777"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144330818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Analyzing the interconnections between clean and dirty cryptocurrency and energy markets","authors":"Xiaoguang Zhou, Xueyao Guo, Yanan Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.physa.2025.130769","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.physa.2025.130769","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the increasing global attention to environmental sustainability, the application of clean energy and the energy efficiency of the cryptocurrency market have become increasingly important. This paper uses weekly data from March 2018 to July 2024 on the clean cryptocurrency market, dirty cryptocurrency market, and the energy market. It applies an autoencoder for dimensionality reduction of five clean cryptocurrency markets and four dirty cryptocurrency markets to calculate the corresponding indices. Subsequently, an R-vine copula model is constructed to analyze the structural relationships and correlations among the three markets. The study then constructs a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and conducts Granger causality tests and Diebold & Yilmaz variance decomposition to analyze the risk spillovers between the markets. The results indicate that solar energy plays a central role in the energy sector, bridging the gap between clean and dirty energy. Ethereum (ETH), through its blockchain technology and decentralized applications, has become an important link connecting the energy market, clean cryptocurrency market, and dirty cryptocurrency market. Furthermore, there exists a significant asymmetry in risk spillovers between the cryptocurrency market and the energy market, with both short-term and long-term spillovers showing similar asymmetries. Coal, wind energy, and solar energy act as risk receivers, while cryptocurrencies, crude oil, and natural gas primarily contribute to risk. Investors should focus on oil and cryptocurrency markets, less affected by others, while regulators should implement tailored strategies for solar and wind energy markets, which react more strongly to external risks, to prevent volatility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20152,"journal":{"name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","volume":"674 ","pages":"Article 130769"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144289124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Exploring cryptocurrency price dynamics and predictability with ordinal networks","authors":"Oday Masoudi , Alessandro Mazzoccoli , Pierluigi Vellucci","doi":"10.1016/j.physa.2025.130752","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.physa.2025.130752","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ordinal networks represent an innovative and versatile approach for time series analysis, enabling the transformation of data sequences into complex networks based on the relative order of values. This method provides a fresh perspective on uncovering the internal structure of the data, allowing the identification of recurring patterns and predictability dynamics. In our study, we employ ordinal networks and permutation entropy to analyze the predictability and evolving dynamics of four cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Dogecoin. By leveraging this methodology, we investigate the temporal relationships and ordinal transitions that characterize the price fluctuations and volatility of each cryptocurrency, offering deeper insights into their dynamic complexity and predictive potential in cryptocurrency markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20152,"journal":{"name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","volume":"674 ","pages":"Article 130752"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144308017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Bingbo Wang , Yaoqi Shou , Mingjie Zhang , Haiyan Jin , Lin Gao
{"title":"Control signature of nodes in biological networks","authors":"Bingbo Wang , Yaoqi Shou , Mingjie Zhang , Haiyan Jin , Lin Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.physa.2025.130771","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.physa.2025.130771","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Controllability of underlying biological networks is studied to help understand biological systems. Although structural properties of driver and critical nodes have been characterized for identifying novel disease genes and potential drug targets, the hypothesis that critical genes interpose crucial functional outcomes of cells has been consistently supported, and ordinary genes have been largely ignored because of their lower enrichment in the context of diseases. Here, we characterize ordinary genes from four different control perspectives, and present a 4-tuple index control signature to precisely describe their control properties. Importantly, we observed a small-scale topologically ordinary genes that make extraordinary contributions to disease etiology, which we called extraordinary genes (EGs). Studying the contribution of EGs in the omnigenic genetic architecture, we verified their high regulatory effects on core genes of diseases by analyzing expression quantitative trait loci, drug targets, and heritability data. We proposed a novel graph pattern of disease in which EGs converge the effects of peripheral signals into core, and improve the heritability enrichment of disease neighborhoods. Together, our results show, for the first time, the ability to characterize extraordinary disease-related genes from ordinary nodes, and suggest a more comprehensive disease-perturbed neighborhoods that further explains the omnigenic model.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20152,"journal":{"name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","volume":"674 ","pages":"Article 130771"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144272059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Boyu Lin , Qiumin Liu , Rui Jiang , Xingang Li , Di Cui
{"title":"Departure time choices and comparisons of household commuting based on the stochastic bottleneck model","authors":"Boyu Lin , Qiumin Liu , Rui Jiang , Xingang Li , Di Cui","doi":"10.1016/j.physa.2025.130762","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.physa.2025.130762","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the impact of the stochastic bottleneck capacity on morning household trips when the school is located near home. There is a bottleneck on the way from the school to the workplace. Each household first drops off their children at school and then goes to work every morning. Based on the Wardrop’s first principle, which minimizes the expected travel cost for each household, all possible equilibrium departure/arrival patterns are examined. The study analyzes how the total travel cost (TTC) and total queuing cost (TQC) vary with the school-work start time difference, with the degradation ratio of capacity and with the degradation probability. Additionally, we compare the results with the scenario where the school is near the workplace. Our findings show that the TTC is always larger when the school is near the workplace compared to when it is near home. However, the queuing cost comparison depends on the parameters. We further compare the results with those in the deterministic model. We find that the TTC in the stochastic model is always larger than that under the deterministic model, while it is not necessarily true for the TQC. We also analyze the Pareto frontiers of TTC and TQC with respect to the school-work start time difference. This study captures the significance of school location and traffic uncertainty in determining the effectiveness of traffic management policies for household trips.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20152,"journal":{"name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","volume":"674 ","pages":"Article 130762"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144281107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On demonstrating liberating effect in complex social networks: Modeling multiple pressure-coping strategies","authors":"Yuan Peng , Yiyi Zhao , Jianglin Dong , Jiangping Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.physa.2025.130723","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.physa.2025.130723","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper introduces a novel opinion dynamics model, termed the Multiple Pressure-Coping Strategies (MPCS) mode, to investigate the opinion evolution in social networks under group pressure. The model extends the Expressed and Private Opinions (EPO) model based on the Hegselmann–Krause (HK) framework. It includes a quantifiable pressure function, heterogeneous confidence levels, a two-stage liberating effect mechanism, and a dynamic evolution of the network structure. Simulations conducted on two artificial networks and a real network demonstrate that the MPCS model is more effective in achieving consensus under conditions of initial low confidence levels and significant group pressure compared to the classic HK model. We find the critical role of initial confidence levels in consensus time. Our research highlights the impact of different pressure-coping strategies on opinion evolution. In the early iterations of evolution, agents reduce group pressure by increasing confidence levels and updating the network; in the later iterations, the liberating effect becomes pivotal in shaping opinion dynamics. The role of the liberating effect is reflected in its ability to further reduce the pressure on high-pressure nodes within the group and optimize the network structure, thereby facilitating the achievement of group consensus.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20152,"journal":{"name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","volume":"674 ","pages":"Article 130723"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144262338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Capacity improvement for mixed traffic flow by installing vehicle-to-vehicle devices on partial human-driven vehicles to serve connected automated vehicles","authors":"Yan Wang , Yanyan Qin , Zhongbin Luo , Hao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.physa.2025.130763","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.physa.2025.130763","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication technology in connected automated vehicles (CAVs) substantially improves traffic capacity. During initial CAV deployment phases, mixed traffic flow combining CAVs and human-driven vehicles (HVs) will inevitably co-exist on highways. The absence of V2V capabilities in HVs prevents them from providing V2V services to CAVs, thereby constraining CAVs’ capacity improvement in mixed traffic environments. To address this limitation, we propose equipping partial HVs with V2V communication devices, enabling these retrofitted HVs to transmit V2V information and create essential communication environment for CAVs. This study develops a mixed traffic capacity analysis framework that simultaneously incorporates CAV penetration rate and V2V installation rate of HVs, which aims to improve mixed traffic capacity by adjusting the V2V installation rate of HVs. Firstly, we classified car-following patterns within mixed traffic flow and calculate their probabilities. Secondly, a mixed traffic capacity model was constructed using fundamental diagram theory. Using the established model, critical values for V2V installation rate of HVs were analytically derived to achieve capacity improvements under varying CAV penetration rates. Finally, numerical experiments validated both the model’s reliability and theoretical derivations. Results demonstrate that the proposed model effectively quantifies how CAV penetration rate and V2V installation rate of HVs jointly influence mixed traffic capacity. Strategic adjustment of V2V installation rate of HVs based on each level of CAV penetration rates significantly enhances mixed traffic capacity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20152,"journal":{"name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","volume":"674 ","pages":"Article 130763"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144262336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The adverse effects of large-scale vaccination on highly transmissible epidemics","authors":"Yinzuo Zhou , Yihan Liu , Xiyun Zhang , Jie Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.physa.2025.130722","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.physa.2025.130722","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we consider highly transmissible epidemics that incorporate a finite immunity period. Under the conditions where: (i) vaccines are partially effective, and (ii) hospital resources are limited, we find that large-scale vaccination may, however, lead to more cumulative infections as compared to small-scale vaccination. We demonstrate that the non-Markovian feature of the epidemic model plays an important role of this counterintuitive phenomenon, and we develop an approach to predict the thresholds of the epidemic process using a set of recurrent equations. Our findings may provide useful insights for administrative measures when encountering highly transmissible epidemics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20152,"journal":{"name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","volume":"674 ","pages":"Article 130722"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144331340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}