Ocean Modelling最新文献_第8页

Study on the influence of island chains on the vortex splitting of mesoscale eddies 岛链对中尺度涡旋涡分裂影响的研究

IF 2.9 3区地球科学

Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102591

Mingze Ji , Xingzhou Jiang , Xiaole Li , Jingyi Lu , He Liu , Xiongbo Zheng

{"title":"Study on the influence of island chains on the vortex splitting of mesoscale eddies","authors":"Mingze Ji , Xingzhou Jiang , Xiaole Li , Jingyi Lu , He Liu , Xiongbo Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102591","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102591","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the ocean, there exist multi-scale water movements, among which mesoscale eddies are important carriers of oceanic material and energy transport. These vortices contain substantial kinetic energy and heat, playing a pivotal role in oceanic mass and energy transfer. The presence of islands can alter the movement path, intensity, and structure of vortices, and may even lead to vortex splitting. Vortex-island interactions not only affect local oceanic dynamic conditions but may also have broader impacts on large-scale ocean circulation and material transport. Previous multi-island studies have primarily focused on the range where the ratio of island spacing to mesoscale vortex diameter falls between 0.1 and 0.4. However, in real oceanic environments, cases where this ratio exceeds 0.4 are more common, particularly in multi-island regions such as the Lesser Antilles, where the ratio often reaches 0.6 or higher. To gain a more comprehensive understanding of the interaction mechanisms between island spacing and mesoscale vortices, as well as their dynamic processes across a broader range of ratios, this study employs the Regional Ocean Modeling System to conduct idealized numerical experiments. By varying parameters related to island configurations, we analyze the influence of islands on vortex trajectory and structural evolution, extending the investigation to cases with ratios ranging from 0.13 to 0.67. Based on the numerical simulation results, we propose a dimensionless function <em>y</em> that integrates three island-related variables, characterizing the impact of different island parameters on vortex splitting during vortex-island interactions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"198 ","pages":"Article 102591"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144723024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The predictability study of oceanic deep learning models: Taking Kuroshio intrusion into South China Sea as an example 海洋深度学习模型的可预测性研究——以黑潮入侵南海为例

IF 2.9 3区地球科学

Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102622

Qiang Wang , Junkai Qian , Mu Mu , Peng Liang , Bo Qin

{"title":"The predictability study of oceanic deep learning models: Taking Kuroshio intrusion into South China Sea as an example","authors":"Qiang Wang , Junkai Qian , Mu Mu , Peng Liang , Bo Qin","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102622","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102622","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many previous studies have delved into the predictability of atmosphere and ocean in numerical models, which are crucial for guiding and improving predictions. Currently, deep learning prediction models have developed rapidly, yet their predictability remains largely unexplored. This study endeavors to probe the predictability of deep learning models by focusing on the Kuroshio intrusion (KI) into the South China Sea, utilizing the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (CNOP) approach. We first construct a deep learning model for the KI prediction based on the Unet, which can well predict the KI with a lead time of 14 days. By integrating this model with a nonlinear optimization algorithm, we calculate two types of CNOPs: one with a positive sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) error, denoted as CNOP1, and another with a negative error, labeled as CNOP2. These CNOP errors can grow quickly and exert significant effects on the KI prediction: CNOP1 tends to yield an anticyclonic SSHA error, which aligns with the loop path of the Kuroshio, thereby amplifying the intrusion, while CNOP2 has an almost opposite effect. Furthermore, the sensitive area is identified by the spatial structure of the CNOP error, which is mainly located around Luzon strait. Reducing the input data errors in the CNOP sensitive area will more remarkably improve the KI prediction with a relative improvement rate surpassing 20%, compared to the sensitive area identified by occlusion method and other artificially determined areas. Such findings have the potential to elevate the KI prediction skills of deep learning models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"198 ","pages":"Article 102622"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144892986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Energetically consistent localised APE budgets for local and regional studies of stratified flow energetics 区域和区域分层流动能量学研究的大力一致的局部APE预算

IF 3.1 3区地球科学

Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102579

Rémi Tailleux , Guillaume Roullet

{"title":"Energetically consistent localised APE budgets for local and regional studies of stratified flow energetics","authors":"Rémi Tailleux , Guillaume Roullet","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102579","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102579","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Because it allows a rigorous separation between reversible and irreversible processes, the concept of available potential energy (APE) has become central to the study of turbulent stratified fluids. In ocean modelling, it is fundamental to the parameterisation of meso-scale ocean eddies and of the turbulent mixing of heat and salt. However, how to apply APE theory consistently to local or regional subdomains has been a longstanding source of confusion due to the globally defined Lorenz reference state entering the definition of APE and of buoyancy forces being generally thought to be meaningless in those cases. In practice, this is often remedied by introducing heuristic ‘localised’ forms of APE density depending uniquely on region-specific reference states, possibly diverging significantly from the global Lorenz reference state. In this paper, we argue that across-scale energy transfers can only be consistently described if localised forms of APE density are defined as the eddy APE component of an exact mean/eddy decomposition of the APE density, for which a new physically more intuitive and mathematically simpler framework is proposed. The eddy APE density thus defined exhibits a much weaker dependency on the global Lorenz reference state than the mean APE, in agreement with physical intuition, but with a different structure than that of existing heuristic localised APE forms. Our framework establishes a rigorous physical basis for linking parameterised energy transfers to molecular viscous and diffusive dissipation rates. We illustrate its potential usefulness by discussing the energetics implications of standard advective and diffusive parameterisations of the turbulent density flux, which reveals potential new sources of numerical instability in ocean models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"197 ","pages":"Article 102579"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144330673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impact of sea ice friction on ocean tides in the Arctic Ocean, modelling insights at various time and space scales 海冰摩擦对北冰洋海潮的影响，在不同时间和空间尺度上的模拟见解

IF 3.1 3区地球科学

Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102590

Mathilde Cancet , Florent H. Lyard , Ergane Fouchet

{"title":"Impact of sea ice friction on ocean tides in the Arctic Ocean, modelling insights at various time and space scales","authors":"Mathilde Cancet , Florent H. Lyard , Ergane Fouchet","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102590","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102590","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although ocean tides are one of the major contributors to the energy dissipation in the Arctic Ocean, they remain relatively poorly known, particularly their interactions with the ice cover (sea ice and grounded ice). These interactions are often simply ignored in tidal models, or considered through relatively simple combinations with the bottom friction. In this paper, we investigate the response of a regional pan-Arctic ocean tidal model to the friction under the sea ice cover, in order to better understand the influence of this parameter on tidal estimates. Different periods of time, from seasonal to decadal scales, were considered to analyze the impact of the variations in the sea ice cover on the ocean tides, in the region as well as at global scale. Long-distance effects of Arctic sea ice friction are revealed in the global tidal simulations, resulting in variations of several centimeters in the seasonal tidal amplitudes. Tide gauge and satellite altimetry observations were specifically processed to retrieve the tidal harmonic constituents over different periods and different sea ice conditions, to compare with the model simulations. Improving the knowledge on the interaction between the tides and the sea ice cover, and thus the performance of the tidal models in the polar regions, is of particular interest to generate more realistic simulations with ocean circulation models, to contribute to scientific investigations on the changes in the Arctic Ocean, and also to improve the satellite altimetry observation retrievals at high latitudes, as the tidal signals remain a major contributor to the error budget of the satellite altimetry observations in the Arctic Ocean. This work also highlights the difficulty to assess the temporal evolution of tides in model simulations in the Arctic because of the lack of long (i.e. several decades) hourly tide gauge observation records in the area.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"197 ","pages":"Article 102590"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144563191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Characteristics and trends of ocean turbulent mixing models research in 1990–2023 based on bibliometric analysis 基于文献计量分析的1990-2023年海洋湍流混合模式研究特征与趋势

IF 3.1 3区地球科学

Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102595

Yanhong Wei , Jinping Wang

{"title":"Characteristics and trends of ocean turbulent mixing models research in 1990–2023 based on bibliometric analysis","authors":"Yanhong Wei , Jinping Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102595","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102595","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ocean turbulent mixing models (OTMMs) have become a popular research topic in recent years, and numerous related research papers have been published. Here, a bibliometric method was utilized to analyze 8411 papers from the Web of Science published from 1990 to 2023 and provide a comprehensive overview based on metrics, including the total publications, countries, institutions, journals, authors, keywords, and subject categories. The results revealed the following. (1) The number of published papers increased gradually, with the USA and China being the main research countries. However, citations per paper in China only accounted for 17.6 %, indicating that there is considerable room for improvement. Seven institutions with a citation per paper rate exceeding 50 % were from the USA, indicating its absolute authority and influence in this field. (2) <em>Astrophysical Journal, Astronomy & Astrophysics</em>, and <em>Geophysical Research Letters</em> were the core journals; <em>Qiao Fangli, Xue Ming</em>, and <em>Madec Gurvan</em> were the most representative authors; M<em>odel, turbulence</em>, and <em>circulation</em> were the most frequent keywords; and <em>Oceanography, Meteorology Atmospheric Sciences</em>, and <em>Environmental Sciences</em> were the most important subject categories over the past 30 years. (3) OTMMs have evolved from simplified models to ultra-high degree-of-freedom numerical models with a faster operation speed, higher spatiotemporal resolution and more complete physical processes. Therefore, decreasing the bias of OTMMs in simulating the upper ocean is an international scientific frontier and long-term technical challenge for ocean and climate prediction. This is the first comprehensive visualization and analysis of this research hotspot and its trends.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"197 ","pages":"Article 102595"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144655420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessment of projected changes in mean and extreme wave power across the Indian coastal sectors under high-emission climate scenarios 高排放气候情景下印度沿海地区平均和极端海浪能的预估变化评估

IF 3.1 3区地球科学

Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102592

Anshu Yadav , Prashant Kumar , Bahareh Kamranzad , Prasad Kumar Bhaskaran , Rajni

{"title":"Assessment of projected changes in mean and extreme wave power across the Indian coastal sectors under high-emission climate scenarios","authors":"Anshu Yadav , Prashant Kumar , Bahareh Kamranzad , Prasad Kumar Bhaskaran , Rajni","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102592","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102592","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Projected changes in oceanic and atmospheric conditions due to climate change necessitate a detailed assessment of future wave power (WP) variations along India’s extensive coastline for sustainable energy development and coastal adaptation. This study examines the projected changes in mean and extreme WP along the Indian coastline, with a regional focus on the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal, Lakshadweep, and Andaman and Nicobar Island, under future climate scenarios SSP126 and SSP585 for the period 2071–2100. The Arabian Sea and southern coastal regions exhibit considerable wave energy potential, but expected decreases in WP and increased variability index (VI) pose challenges for long-term exploitation. Key regions such as Gujarat, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and Lakshadweep demonstrate substantial variability in WP, with higher variability in future scenarios under SSP5–8.5. Site-specific assessments across 20 locations identified Veraval (Gujarat), Hut Bay (Andaman), and Agatti, Minicoy, and Kalpeni (Lakshadweep) as key sites with both high mean and extreme WP values, characterized by consistently elevated energy levels and stable variability indicating strong potential for reliable wave energy extraction. The findings underscore the importance of integrating climate change projections into strategic energy planning, with a focus on region-specific assessments to ensure sustainable and resilient wave energy development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"197 ","pages":"Article 102592"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144655419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Challenges in improving Arctic freshwater simulations: An evaluation of CMIP6 models in the Beaufort Gyre region 改善北极淡水模拟的挑战：波弗特环流地区CMIP6模式的评估

IF 3.1 3区地球科学

Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102565

Yu Zhang , Zhou Ye , Feifan Chen , Changsheng Chen , Guoping Gao , Robert C. Beardsley , Deshuai Wang , Jianhua Qi , Danya Xu , Yi Zhou

{"title":"Challenges in improving Arctic freshwater simulations: An evaluation of CMIP6 models in the Beaufort Gyre region","authors":"Yu Zhang , Zhou Ye , Feifan Chen , Changsheng Chen , Guoping Gao , Robert C. Beardsley , Deshuai Wang , Jianhua Qi , Danya Xu , Yi Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102565","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102565","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The performance of CMIP6 models in simulating freshwater content (FWC) in the Beaufort Gyre remains unclear. This study evaluated 17 CMIP6 models using both observational and reanalysis datasets. Additionally, a global ice-ocean coupled model based on Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (Global-FVCOM) was incorporated for reference. The results revealed a significant inter-model spread among the CMIP6 models in spatiotemporal variations of FWC, with discrepancies relative to the evaluation data that were larger than those exhibited in Global-FVCOM. These discrepancies were primarily attributed to simulation errors of the salinity structure within the CMIP6 models. Over half of the models indicated that the primary source of FWC error originated from the layers above the base of halocline, where most models underestimated FWC, while others suggested the error originated from the layers between the base of the halocline and the 34.8 psu isohaline, where models tended to overestimate FWC. Based on an overall evaluation using observational and reanalysis datasets, EC-Earth3, MRI-ESM2-0, and FIO-ESM-2-0 showed better performance relative to other CMIP6 models. However, these three models, along with the multi-model mean, exhibited larger errors than Global-FVCOM, suggesting that current CMIP6 models still face challenges in FWC simulation relative to some ice-ocean coupled models. The main aspects contributing to the errors, including discrepancies in uncertainties induced by internal variability, numerical configurations, vertical mixing schemes, model resolutions, freshwater inputs, and atmospheric forcings were further discussed in this study. This study enhances understandings of CMIP6 models’ capabilities to simulate FWC in the Beaufort Gyre region, providing valuable insights for future model improvements.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"197 ","pages":"Article 102565"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A hindcast of coastal flooding from hurricane Irma 飓风“厄玛”引发的沿海洪水后向图

IF 3.1 3区地球科学

Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102582

Taylor G. Asher, Richard A. Luettich Jr.

{"title":"A hindcast of coastal flooding from hurricane Irma","authors":"Taylor G. Asher, Richard A. Luettich Jr.","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102582","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102582","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hurricane Irma produced coastal flooding across roughly 1500 km of U.S. coastline that caught many by surprise. The atypical surge patterns were driven by nuanced characteristics of the storm’s evolution that, when paired with the coastal geometry, led to a widely varied storm surge response. Here, we perform a hindcast of the coastal flooding response to Irma with the coupled ADCIRC+SWAN circulation and wave model, and two sets of meteorological forcing, one a reanalysis and the other a parametric model. This allows us to both assess model performance and to illustrate the mechanisms behind the complex surge response. Irma’s track along the length of the Florida peninsula affected water levels along much of the west Florida coast as well as the southeast Atlantic coast from Florida to South Carolina. We find the fidelity of the water level response along much of the west Florida and the southeast Atlantic coasts closely tracks the fidelity of the wind speed and direction. However, the rapid change from strong offshore to strong onshore winds and resulting across-shelf flow near the location of landfall in southern Florida makes the water level response there highly sensitive to the details of the storm. In particular, the strong initial setdown created a cross shelf pressure gradient that reinforced the surge driven by onshore winds on the back side of the storm in a resonant-like cross shelf response that may have further enhanced the surge. We also assess the quality of U.S. Geologic Survey storm tide sensor data products, which have become a widely used source of storm-related water level data. Several sources of error are identified that can combine to yield a sizeable overall error in the processed water level data that may not be apparent to users.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"197 ","pages":"Article 102582"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144523536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A wave data assimilation system for the North Sea based on Ensemble Kalman Filtering and the potential of satellite altimetry 基于集合卡尔曼滤波和卫星测高潜力的北海波浪资料同化系统

IF 3.1 3区地球科学

Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102586

C.W.E. de Korte , M. Verlaan , A.W. Heemink

{"title":"A wave data assimilation system for the North Sea based on Ensemble Kalman Filtering and the potential of satellite altimetry","authors":"C.W.E. de Korte , M. Verlaan , A.W. Heemink","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102586","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102586","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A Wave Data Assimilation System based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is implemented for the North Sea showing improved performance and physical consistency. We first show the EnKF implementation and illustrate the wave data assimilation system using identical twin experiments to assimilate synthetic observations from buoys. A sensitivity analysis shows that the ensemble size, assimilation frequency and observation uncertainty are relatively important settings. Lastly, the potential for assimilating satellite measurements was assessed by assimilating synthetic altimeter measurements with real pass-over tracks. In these experiments, the state contains the full wave spectrum, unlike in most existing schemes. The results show that wave spectra and integral variables beyond significant wave height show physically consistent updates for the buoy and satellite experiments, by assimilating only significant wave height. This is a key advantage of this implementation compared to the more widely used implementations in wave data assimilation. Although the satellite experiment performs slightly worse than the buoy experiment due to decreased temporal availability of measurements, the results underline the potential for assimilation of satellite altimeter measurements. Such a system provides a promising framework for future observation impact study using satellite altimeter measurements.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"197 ","pages":"Article 102586"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144549599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Neural network predictions of peak storm tides due to tropical cyclones 由热带气旋引起的风暴潮高峰的神经网络预测

IF 3.1 3区地球科学

Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102588

T.A. Cuevas López , B.J. Tucker , J.C. Dietrich , D.L. Anderson , E. Lobaton , J.S. Mariegaard

{"title":"Neural network predictions of peak storm tides due to tropical cyclones","authors":"T.A. Cuevas López , B.J. Tucker , J.C. Dietrich , D.L. Anderson , E. Lobaton , J.S. Mariegaard","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102588","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102588","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Storm-driven flooding is a hazard for coastal communities. Process-based models can predict the combined effects of tides, winds, and flooding due to tropical cyclones, including in real-time, but often with restrictions due to a model’s runtime. Researchers have developed neural networks (NN), trained on libraries of storm surge simulations, to predict flooding in seconds. However, previous NNs ignored interactions with astronomical tides, limited to storms of specific durations, and trained for extreme conditions. In this study, a NN is developed to predict peak values for storm tides (storm surge and tides) at nine stations along the North Carolina coast. For training, a library of storm-tides was developed via process-based model simulations of 1813 synthetic storms based on historical data in the north Atlantic Ocean, but with a specific focus on North Carolina, and then augmented by a factor of 50 via combinations with random tides. Unlike previous NN, this approach incorporates the astronomical tides in the training and uses data augmentation techniques for enhanced generalization. The NN performs well, with root-mean-square errors of about 6 cm and mean bias errors for the extreme storms of about 5 cm. For probabilistic predictions of historical storms, the model can predict for 100 ensemble members in 1 s, and the ranges of peak storm tides are close to their true values.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"197 ","pages":"Article 102588"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144662604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0