Ocean Modelling最新文献_第9页

Improving the accuracy of global ECMWF wave height forecasts with machine learning 利用机器学习提高 ECMWF 全球波高预报的准确性

IF 3.1 3区地球科学

Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102450

Shuyi Zhou , Jiuke Wang , Yuhan Cao , Brandon J. Bethel , Wenhong Xie , Guangjun Xu , Wenjin Sun , Yang Yu , Hongchun Zhang , Changming Dong

{"title":"Improving the accuracy of global ECMWF wave height forecasts with machine learning","authors":"Shuyi Zhou , Jiuke Wang , Yuhan Cao , Brandon J. Bethel , Wenhong Xie , Guangjun Xu , Wenjin Sun , Yang Yu , Hongchun Zhang , Changming Dong","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102450","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102450","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Significant wave height (SWH) stands as one of the most crucial parameters for maritime activities. However, even the SWH data from the widely utilized European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF-IFS) carries errors and uncertainties. In this study, the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) is used to inference the global ECMWF-IFS SWH forecast biases. The results demonstrate that globally, the LightGBM reduces the root mean square error by 10–20 %. Particularly noteworthy is the enhanced forecast accuracy observed in the western Pacific during late summers. Furthermore, the corrected forecast results during Super Typhoon Lekima in 2019 showcase the capability of model to effectively enhance the forecast accuracy of typhoon-induced wind waves, even when four typhoons occur concurrently. This study establishes the feasibility of LightGBM in inferencing single-step SWH forecast bias and presents a cost-effective model for enhancing global wave forecasts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 102450"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142441821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Contribution of high-mode near-inertial waves to enhanced typhoon-induced sea surface temperature cooling in the South China Sea 高模近惯性波对台风诱发的南海海面温度冷却增强的贡献

IF 3.1 3区地球科学

Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2024-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102452

Shukui Cheng , Anzhou Cao , Jinbao Song , Xinyu Guo

{"title":"Contribution of high-mode near-inertial waves to enhanced typhoon-induced sea surface temperature cooling in the South China Sea","authors":"Shukui Cheng , Anzhou Cao , Jinbao Song , Xinyu Guo","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102452","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102452","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sea surface temperature cooling (SSTC) is an important indicator of the ocean response to typhoons and is a factor in the evolution of typhoons. Understanding the intricate mechanisms underlying the SSTC induced by different typhoons is important. Based on the numerical simulation, we investigated the SSTC induced by typhoons Megi (2010), Linfa (2015), and Sarika (2011), which had relatively similar tracks in the South China Sea. As the strongest (weakest) typhoon, Megi (Sarika) induced the largest (smallest) SSTC, which is consistent with the traditional understanding that stronger typhoons usually induce larger SSTC than weaker typhoons. However, the SSTC induced by the moderate typhoon Linfa was nearly comparable to that induced by Megi, while Linfa had a wind power input an order of magnitude smaller. A comparison of near-inertial waves (NIWs) induced by Linfa and Megi showed that the former contained a larger proportion of high modes, substantially contributing to vertical shear. Consequently, the vertical mixing coefficient during Linfa reached one third of that during Megi. Because the SSTC is primarily influenced by vertical mixing, which is dominated by vertical diffusion at the mixed layer depth, the relatively strong vertical mixing coefficient and large temperature gradient during Linfa ultimately resulted in the SSTC nearly comparable to that induced by Megi. The results of this study enhance the understanding of typhoon-induced SSTC.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 102452"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142421565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modeling sediment movement in the shallow-water framework: A morpho-hydrodynamic approach with numerical simulations and experimental validation 浅水框架中的沉积物运动建模：通过数值模拟和实验验证的形态流体力学方法

IF 3.1 3区地球科学

Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102445

E. Guerrero Fernández , M.J. Castro Díaz , Y. Wei , C. Moore

引用次数: 0

Evaluation of wave-based parameterizations of air–sea CO2 gas transfer over global oceans 基于波浪的全球海洋海气二氧化碳气体转移参数评估

IF 3.1 3区地球科学

Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102446

Shuo Li , Alexander V. Babanin , Qingxiang Liu , Changlong Guan

引用次数: 0

An operational discontinuous Galerkin shallow water model for coastal flood assessment 用于沿海洪水评估的非连续伽勒金浅水操作模型

IF 3.1 3区地球科学

Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102447

A.G. Filippini , L. Arpaia , V. Perrier , R. Pedreros , P. Bonneton , D. Lannes , F. Marche , S. De Brye , S. Delmas , S. Lecacheux , F. Boulahya , M. Ricchiuto

{"title":"An operational discontinuous Galerkin shallow water model for coastal flood assessment","authors":"A.G. Filippini , L. Arpaia , V. Perrier , R. Pedreros , P. Bonneton , D. Lannes , F. Marche , S. De Brye , S. Delmas , S. Lecacheux , F. Boulahya , M. Ricchiuto","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102447","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102447","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hydrodynamic modeling for coastal flooding risk assessment is a highly relevant topic. Many operational tools available for this purpose use numerical techniques and implementation paradigms that reach their limits when confronted with modern requirements in terms of resolution and performances. In this work, we present a novel operational tool for coastal hazards predictions, currently employed by the BRGM agency (the French Geological Survey) to carry out its flooding hazard exposure studies and coastal risk prevention plans on International and French territories. The model, called UHAINA (wave in the Basque language), is based on an arbitrary high-order discontinuous Galerkin discretization of the nonlinear shallow water equations with SSP Runge–Kutta time stepping on unstructured triangular grids. It is built upon the finite element library AeroSol, which provides a modern C++ software architecture and high scalability, making it suitable for HPC applications. The paper provides a detailed development of the mathematical and numerical framework of the model, focusing on two key-ingredients : (i) a pragmatic <span><math><msup><mrow><mi>P</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msup></math></span> treatment of the solution in partially dry cells which guarantees efficiently well-balancedness, positivity and mass conservation at any polynomial order; (ii) an artificial viscosity method based on the physical dissipation of the system of equations providing nonlinear stability for non-smooth solutions. A set of numerical validations on academic benchmarks is performed to highlight the efficiency of these approaches. Finally, UHAINA is applied on a real operational case of study, demonstrating very satisfactory results.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 102447"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142441823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Numerical investigation of coastal profile evolution under effect of submerged flexible vegetation by XBeach wave model XBeach 波浪模型对水下柔性植被影响下海岸剖面演变的数值研究

IF 3.1 3区地球科学

Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102441

Yiran Wang, Kai Yin, Sudong Xu, Shangpeng Gong, Mingxuan Li

{"title":"Numerical investigation of coastal profile evolution under effect of submerged flexible vegetation by XBeach wave model","authors":"Yiran Wang, Kai Yin, Sudong Xu, Shangpeng Gong, Mingxuan Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102441","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102441","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Vegetation communities distributed in coastal zones and offshore wetlands are important compositions for sand stabilization and stability of the ecosystem. This paper studies the impact of flexible vegetation on beach profile evolution by constructing an XBeach numerical model. Firstly, the mathematical model of flexible vegetation beach is established based on the generalized vegetation parameters. The XBeach numerical model is validated by the wave flume experiment to prove that a semi-empirical equation of flexible vegetation drag coefficient is valid in beach profile evolution. Then, the numerical model is used to study the beach profile evolution with flexible vegetation under different wave parameters and summarize the corresponding laws. Finally, the differences between flexible and rigid vegetation on beach evolution are compared. Results show that the beach profile evolution roughly increased with the increase of wave parameters. The Starting Point of Evolution in beach shifts offshore and the evolution range gradually broadens as the wave height or period increases. In addition, the flexible vegetation beach shows greater evolution than rigid vegetation beach and the Starting Point of Evolution also tends to be more offshore, particularly under conditions of long periods and large wave heights. This study can provide references for beach protection and ecological restoration in coastal areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 102441"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142359134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

CanESM5-derived ocean wave projections — Considerations for coarse resolution climate models 源自 CanESM5 的海浪预测 - 对粗分辨率气候模式的考虑

IF 3.1 3区地球科学

Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102430

Mercè Casas-Prat , Leah Cicon , Benoit Pouliot , Natacha B. Bernier , Alex J. Cannon , Rodney Chan

{"title":"CanESM5-derived ocean wave projections — Considerations for coarse resolution climate models","authors":"Mercè Casas-Prat , Leah Cicon , Benoit Pouliot , Natacha B. Bernier , Alex J. Cannon , Rodney Chan","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102430","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102430","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study presents the first set of CanESM5-driven wave projections for two emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5) and two time periods for mid- and end-century. While coarse resolution climate models, like CanESM5, might be less attractive for development of ocean wave projections, their results are needed to explore the full range of inter-model uncertainty in CMIP6 projections. Considering the coarse resolution limitation, wave simulations were obtained with a proposed computationally efficient 2-step bias-correction approach that consists of (i) calibrating the wind-to-wave energy transfer in the ocean wave model to reduce the underestimation of extremes resulting from coarse resolution, and (ii) bias-correcting the surface winds with a multivariate bias-correction to reduce remaining systematic biases. Results showed overall good performance in comparison with state of the art reanalysis and satellite data. Resulting projections provide increased understanding of future changes in wave conditions, confirming previously reported global-scale changes, such as higher waves in the eastern tropical Pacific and lower waves in the North Atlantic. They also provide more detailed information for areas affected by sea ice conditions in comparison to the latest CMIP5-based wave ensembles, which is critical for the Arctic region, a hotspot for ocean wave changes. Moreover, while the largest changes are typically seen by the end-century under SSP5-8.5, this study reveals that for some variables and areas, such as the mean wave period, larger changes occur for lower warming levels as a result of competing driving factors. Finally, the presented projections can contribute to ongoing efforts to generate a large multi-model ensemble of wave projections based on CMIP6.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 102430"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142314190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Deep learning approaches in predicting tropical cyclone tracks: An analysis focused on the Northwest Pacific Region 预测热带气旋路径的深度学习方法：以西北太平洋地区为重点的分析

IF 3.1 3区地球科学

Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102444

Peng Hao, Yaqi Zhao, Shuang Li, Jinbao Song, Yu Gao

{"title":"Deep learning approaches in predicting tropical cyclone tracks: An analysis focused on the Northwest Pacific Region","authors":"Peng Hao, Yaqi Zhao, Shuang Li, Jinbao Song, Yu Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102444","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102444","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, we conducted a comprehensive and integrated test of tropical cyclone track prediction using deep learning technologies, aiming to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of the prediction methods. We employed the Best Track dataset from the China Meteorological Administration's Tropical Cyclone Data Center, which covers the Northwest Pacific region from 1949 to 2023. This dataset provides comprehensive coverage, encompassing critical tropical cyclone details like time, latitude, longitude, and wind speed. Our focus was on evaluating and comparing different deep learning models, including Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), for their effectiveness in handling complex time series data. Through detailed analysis of various model configurations, including factors such as input-output lengths, hidden size, the number of layers, the implementation of bi-directional networks, and attention mechanisms, we discovered that LSTM and GRU models significantly outperform traditional RNN models in dealing with long-term dependencies and enhancing prediction accuracy. Moreover, the LSTM model, used to forecast key tropical cyclones during the 2023 Pacific tropical cyclone season, achieved mean errors of 21.84 km, 37.56 km, and 26.12 km for Typhoons Mawar, Doksuri, and Saola, respectively. This method also demonstrated high efficiency in rapid response to extreme weather changes, processing each tropical cyclone's forecast in just about 8 s. The results not only illustrate the practical utility of deep learning in tropical cyclone track prediction but also provide new, effective tools for disaster prevention and mitigation efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 102444"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142434459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Storm surge modelling along European coastlines: The effect of the spatio-temporal resolution of the atmospheric forcing 欧洲海岸线风暴潮模型：大气强迫的时空分辨率的影响

IF 3.1 3区地球科学

Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102432

Miguel Agulles , Marta Marcos , Angel Amores , Tim Toomey

{"title":"Storm surge modelling along European coastlines: The effect of the spatio-temporal resolution of the atmospheric forcing","authors":"Miguel Agulles , Marta Marcos , Angel Amores , Tim Toomey","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102432","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102432","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The spatio-temporal resolution of atmospheric forcing plays a key role in the accuracy of simulated storm surges with hydrodynamic numerical models. Here, we generate five hydrodynamic hindcasts of coastal storm surges along the European Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea coasts, forced with atmospheric fields of varying temporal (hourly and daily) and spatial (0.25<span><math><mo>°</mo></math></span> to 2<span><math><mo>°</mo></math></span>) resolution since 1940. Our results, that are validated with insitu tide gauge observations, show that storm surges obtained with daily forcing underestimate the magnitude of coastal extreme sea level events by up to 50% compared to hourly simulations and observations. Nevertheless, low-resolution simulations capture the temporal variability of storm surges, including strong episodes. Furthermore, taking advantage of the consistent set of coastal storm surge hindcasts, we demonstrate that storm surges forced with daily mean atmospheric fields, when bias corrected via quantile mapping, provide accurate values of daily maxima as calculated by a high-resolution hindcast. This transformation paves the way to obtain daily maxima storm surge estimates from low-resolution atmospheric fields, as those typically provided by large-scale and global climate models, at a lower computational cost.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 102432"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1463500324001197/pdfft?md5=369ebad2817cdd4ef1ab796bdc13ed68&pid=1-s2.0-S1463500324001197-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142240422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The effect of shallow water bathymetry on swash and surf zone modeled by SWASH 浅水水深对 SWASH 模拟的冲刷和冲浪区的影响

IF 3.1 3区地球科学

Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2024-09-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102440

Juliana Franco Lima , Leandro Farina , Pedro Veras Guimarães , Ana Flávia Caetano Bastos , Pedro de Souza Pereira , Mauro Michelena Andrade

{"title":"The effect of shallow water bathymetry on swash and surf zone modeled by SWASH","authors":"Juliana Franco Lima , Leandro Farina , Pedro Veras Guimarães , Ana Flávia Caetano Bastos , Pedro de Souza Pereira , Mauro Michelena Andrade","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102440","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102440","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Submerged topography in shallow waters is fundamental in the propagation and dissipation of ocean waves in the surf and swash zones. However, obtaining accurate bathymetric data in this region is challenging due to the high temporal and spatial environmental variability. The bottom boundary condition can directly affect the accuracy of numerical models used for shallow water simulations. In this study, the performance of the SWASH numerical model in describing wave runup in the swash zone is assessed using different bathymetric boundary conditions. The first method involves using data measured in the surf zone obtained by a Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), and analyzing it using the cBathy algorithm. The second method utilizes a regular bathymetric mesh generated from Dean’s equilibrium profile combined with beach topography data. The third method relies exclusively on interpolation methods using data from deep waters and beach profiles. This interpolation approach is the most used among SWASH users when detailed or updated surf zone bathymetry is unavailable. Based on the numerical simulations performed, not incorporating data from the surf zone resulted in a 4% increase in the runup estimated and approximately a 2% difference in identifying the swash zone position. The method to obtain bathymetry through the cBathy algorithm, used in this article, is cost-effective and can be used to reduce uncertainties in surf zone numerical simulations, induced by the lack of knowledge about the bottom conditions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 102440"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142163711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0