Ocean Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Modeling sediment movement in the shallow-water framework: A morpho-hydrodynamic approach with numerical simulations and experimental validation","authors":"E. Guerrero Fernández ,&nbsp;M.J. Castro Díaz ,&nbsp;Y. Wei ,&nbsp;C. Moore","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102445","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102445","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This work presents a morpho-hydrodynamic model and a numerical approximation designed for the fast and accurate simulation of sediment movement associated with extreme events, such as tsunamis. The model integrates the well-established hydrostatic shallow-water equations with a transport equation for the moving bathymetry that relies on a bedload transport function. Subsequently, this model is discretized using the path-conservative finite volume framework to yield a numerical scheme that is not only fast but also second-order accurate and well-balanced for the lake-at-rest solution. The numerical discretization separates the hydrodynamic and morphodynamic components of the model but leverages the eigenstructure information to evolve the morphologic part in an upwind fashion, preventing spurious oscillations. The study includes various numerical experiments, incorporating comparisons with laboratory experimental data and field surveys.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 102445"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142421566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of wave-based parameterizations of air–sea CO2 gas transfer over global oceans","authors":"Shuo Li ,&nbsp;Alexander V. Babanin ,&nbsp;Qingxiang Liu ,&nbsp;Changlong Guan","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102446","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102446","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The parameterization of air–sea CO₂ transfer velocity employed in the estimation of bulk fluxes over global ocean is typically established on wind speed but could suffer from the deviations induced by sea states. In this study, the effectiveness of wave-based formulations are substantiated by reproducing climatological air–sea CO₂ flux and gas transfer velocity. Sea states play a significant role in facilitating CO₂ transfer, particularly in mid to high latitude regions with high wind speeds. The variability in transfer velocity induced by sea states is estimated up to 19% at the wind speed of 15 m/s. The two wave-based formulations used in this study are combined using a critical value of the Reynolds number. The combined formulation further improves estimates of the CO₂ gas transfer velocity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 102446"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142536989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An operational discontinuous Galerkin shallow water model for coastal flood assessment","authors":"A.G. Filippini ,&nbsp;L. Arpaia ,&nbsp;V. Perrier ,&nbsp;R. Pedreros ,&nbsp;P. Bonneton ,&nbsp;D. Lannes ,&nbsp;F. Marche ,&nbsp;S. De Brye ,&nbsp;S. Delmas ,&nbsp;S. Lecacheux ,&nbsp;F. Boulahya ,&nbsp;M. Ricchiuto","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102447","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102447","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hydrodynamic modeling for coastal flooding risk assessment is a highly relevant topic. Many operational tools available for this purpose use numerical techniques and implementation paradigms that reach their limits when confronted with modern requirements in terms of resolution and performances. In this work, we present a novel operational tool for coastal hazards predictions, currently employed by the BRGM agency (the French Geological Survey) to carry out its flooding hazard exposure studies and coastal risk prevention plans on International and French territories. The model, called UHAINA (wave in the Basque language), is based on an arbitrary high-order discontinuous Galerkin discretization of the nonlinear shallow water equations with SSP Runge–Kutta time stepping on unstructured triangular grids. It is built upon the finite element library AeroSol, which provides a modern C++ software architecture and high scalability, making it suitable for HPC applications. The paper provides a detailed development of the mathematical and numerical framework of the model, focusing on two key-ingredients : (i) a pragmatic <span><math><msup><mrow><mi>P</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msup></math></span> treatment of the solution in partially dry cells which guarantees efficiently well-balancedness, positivity and mass conservation at any polynomial order; (ii) an artificial viscosity method based on the physical dissipation of the system of equations providing nonlinear stability for non-smooth solutions. A set of numerical validations on academic benchmarks is performed to highlight the efficiency of these approaches. Finally, UHAINA is applied on a real operational case of study, demonstrating very satisfactory results.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 102447"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142441823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Numerical investigation of coastal profile evolution under effect of submerged flexible vegetation by XBeach wave model","authors":"Yiran Wang,&nbsp;Kai Yin,&nbsp;Sudong Xu,&nbsp;Shangpeng Gong,&nbsp;Mingxuan Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102441","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102441","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Vegetation communities distributed in coastal zones and offshore wetlands are important compositions for sand stabilization and stability of the ecosystem. This paper studies the impact of flexible vegetation on beach profile evolution by constructing an XBeach numerical model. Firstly, the mathematical model of flexible vegetation beach is established based on the generalized vegetation parameters. The XBeach numerical model is validated by the wave flume experiment to prove that a semi-empirical equation of flexible vegetation drag coefficient is valid in beach profile evolution. Then, the numerical model is used to study the beach profile evolution with flexible vegetation under different wave parameters and summarize the corresponding laws. Finally, the differences between flexible and rigid vegetation on beach evolution are compared. Results show that the beach profile evolution roughly increased with the increase of wave parameters. The Starting Point of Evolution in beach shifts offshore and the evolution range gradually broadens as the wave height or period increases. In addition, the flexible vegetation beach shows greater evolution than rigid vegetation beach and the Starting Point of Evolution also tends to be more offshore, particularly under conditions of long periods and large wave heights. This study can provide references for beach protection and ecological restoration in coastal areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 102441"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142359134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"CanESM5-derived ocean wave projections — Considerations for coarse resolution climate models","authors":"Mercè Casas-Prat ,&nbsp;Leah Cicon ,&nbsp;Benoit Pouliot ,&nbsp;Natacha B. Bernier ,&nbsp;Alex J. Cannon ,&nbsp;Rodney Chan","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102430","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102430","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study presents the first set of CanESM5-driven wave projections for two emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5) and two time periods for mid- and end-century. While coarse resolution climate models, like CanESM5, might be less attractive for development of ocean wave projections, their results are needed to explore the full range of inter-model uncertainty in CMIP6 projections. Considering the coarse resolution limitation, wave simulations were obtained with a proposed computationally efficient 2-step bias-correction approach that consists of (i) calibrating the wind-to-wave energy transfer in the ocean wave model to reduce the underestimation of extremes resulting from coarse resolution, and (ii) bias-correcting the surface winds with a multivariate bias-correction to reduce remaining systematic biases. Results showed overall good performance in comparison with state of the art reanalysis and satellite data. Resulting projections provide increased understanding of future changes in wave conditions, confirming previously reported global-scale changes, such as higher waves in the eastern tropical Pacific and lower waves in the North Atlantic. They also provide more detailed information for areas affected by sea ice conditions in comparison to the latest CMIP5-based wave ensembles, which is critical for the Arctic region, a hotspot for ocean wave changes. Moreover, while the largest changes are typically seen by the end-century under SSP5-8.5, this study reveals that for some variables and areas, such as the mean wave period, larger changes occur for lower warming levels as a result of competing driving factors. Finally, the presented projections can contribute to ongoing efforts to generate a large multi-model ensemble of wave projections based on CMIP6.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 102430"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142314190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Deep learning approaches in predicting tropical cyclone tracks: An analysis focused on the Northwest Pacific Region","authors":"Peng Hao,&nbsp;Yaqi Zhao,&nbsp;Shuang Li,&nbsp;Jinbao Song,&nbsp;Yu Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102444","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102444","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, we conducted a comprehensive and integrated test of tropical cyclone track prediction using deep learning technologies, aiming to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of the prediction methods. We employed the Best Track dataset from the China Meteorological Administration's Tropical Cyclone Data Center, which covers the Northwest Pacific region from 1949 to 2023. This dataset provides comprehensive coverage, encompassing critical tropical cyclone details like time, latitude, longitude, and wind speed. Our focus was on evaluating and comparing different deep learning models, including Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), for their effectiveness in handling complex time series data. Through detailed analysis of various model configurations, including factors such as input-output lengths, hidden size, the number of layers, the implementation of bi-directional networks, and attention mechanisms, we discovered that LSTM and GRU models significantly outperform traditional RNN models in dealing with long-term dependencies and enhancing prediction accuracy. Moreover, the LSTM model, used to forecast key tropical cyclones during the 2023 Pacific tropical cyclone season, achieved mean errors of 21.84 km, 37.56 km, and 26.12 km for Typhoons Mawar, Doksuri, and Saola, respectively. This method also demonstrated high efficiency in rapid response to extreme weather changes, processing each tropical cyclone's forecast in just about 8 s. The results not only illustrate the practical utility of deep learning in tropical cyclone track prediction but also provide new, effective tools for disaster prevention and mitigation efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 102444"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142434459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Storm surge modelling along European coastlines: The effect of the spatio-temporal resolution of the atmospheric forcing","authors":"Miguel Agulles ,&nbsp;Marta Marcos ,&nbsp;Angel Amores ,&nbsp;Tim Toomey","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102432","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102432","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The spatio-temporal resolution of atmospheric forcing plays a key role in the accuracy of simulated storm surges with hydrodynamic numerical models. Here, we generate five hydrodynamic hindcasts of coastal storm surges along the European Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea coasts, forced with atmospheric fields of varying temporal (hourly and daily) and spatial (0.25<span><math><mo>°</mo></math></span> to 2<span><math><mo>°</mo></math></span>) resolution since 1940. Our results, that are validated with insitu tide gauge observations, show that storm surges obtained with daily forcing underestimate the magnitude of coastal extreme sea level events by up to 50% compared to hourly simulations and observations. Nevertheless, low-resolution simulations capture the temporal variability of storm surges, including strong episodes. Furthermore, taking advantage of the consistent set of coastal storm surge hindcasts, we demonstrate that storm surges forced with daily mean atmospheric fields, when bias corrected via quantile mapping, provide accurate values of daily maxima as calculated by a high-resolution hindcast. This transformation paves the way to obtain daily maxima storm surge estimates from low-resolution atmospheric fields, as those typically provided by large-scale and global climate models, at a lower computational cost.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 102432"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1463500324001197/pdfft?md5=369ebad2817cdd4ef1ab796bdc13ed68&pid=1-s2.0-S1463500324001197-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142240422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The effect of shallow water bathymetry on swash and surf zone modeled by SWASH","authors":"Juliana Franco Lima ,&nbsp;Leandro Farina ,&nbsp;Pedro Veras Guimarães ,&nbsp;Ana Flávia Caetano Bastos ,&nbsp;Pedro de Souza Pereira ,&nbsp;Mauro Michelena Andrade","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102440","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102440","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Submerged topography in shallow waters is fundamental in the propagation and dissipation of ocean waves in the surf and swash zones. However, obtaining accurate bathymetric data in this region is challenging due to the high temporal and spatial environmental variability. The bottom boundary condition can directly affect the accuracy of numerical models used for shallow water simulations. In this study, the performance of the SWASH numerical model in describing wave runup in the swash zone is assessed using different bathymetric boundary conditions. The first method involves using data measured in the surf zone obtained by a Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), and analyzing it using the cBathy algorithm. The second method utilizes a regular bathymetric mesh generated from Dean’s equilibrium profile combined with beach topography data. The third method relies exclusively on interpolation methods using data from deep waters and beach profiles. This interpolation approach is the most used among SWASH users when detailed or updated surf zone bathymetry is unavailable. Based on the numerical simulations performed, not incorporating data from the surf zone resulted in a 4% increase in the runup estimated and approximately a 2% difference in identifying the swash zone position. The method to obtain bathymetry through the cBathy algorithm, used in this article, is cost-effective and can be used to reduce uncertainties in surf zone numerical simulations, induced by the lack of knowledge about the bottom conditions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 102440"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142163711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Explainable AI in lengthening ENSO prediction from western north pacific precursor","authors":"Liping Deng ,&nbsp;Krishna Borhara ,&nbsp;Parichart Promchote ,&nbsp;Shih-Yu Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102431","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102431","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this short communication, we report initial success in utilizing existing Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methodology to investigate an emerging precursor of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), manifest as sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the Western North Pacific (WNP), and its impact on enhancing ENSO prediction accuracy. Our analysis reveals that integrating WNP SSTA with established XAI techniques significantly increases the predictability of ENSO states. We found marked improvement in prediction accuracy, from a 60 % baseline to over 85 % for forecasting moderate warm, cold, and neutral ENSO states one year ahead. For higher magnitude events, precision surpasses 90 %. This work, intended as a follow-up to recent studies, underscores the potential of augmenting emerging XAI with additional SST signals to advance long-term climate forecasting capabilities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 102431"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142240421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On warm bias and mesoscale dynamics setting the Southern Ocean large-scale circulation mean state","authors":"Mathias Zeller,&nbsp;Torge Martin","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102426","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102426","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A realistic representation of the Southern Ocean (SO) in climate models is critical for reliable global climate projections. However, many models are still facing severe biases in this region. Using a fully coupled global climate model at non-eddying (1/2<span><math><msup><mrow></mrow><mrow><mo>∘</mo></mrow></msup></math></span>) and strongly eddying (1/10<span><math><msup><mrow></mrow><mrow><mo>∘</mo></mrow></msup></math></span>) grid resolution in the SO, we investigate the effect of a 0.5 °C, 1.0 °C and 1.6 °C warmer than observed SO on i) the spin-up behaviour of the high-resolution simulation, and ii) the representation of main dynamical features, i.e., the Antarctic circumpolar current (ACC), the subpolar gyres, the overturning circulation and the Agulhas regime in a quasi-equilibrium state. The adjustment of SO dynamics and hydrography critically depends on the initial state and grid resolution. When initialised with an observed ocean state, only the non-eddying configuration quickly builds up a strong warm bias in the SO. The high-resolution configuration initialised with the biased non-eddying model state results in immense spurious open ocean deep convection, as the biased ocean state is not stable at eddying resolution, and thus causes an undesirable imprint on global circulation. The SO heat content also affects the large-scale dynamics in both low- and high-resolution configurations. A warmer SO is associated with a stronger Agulhas current and a temperature-driven reduction of the meridional density gradient at 45<span><math><msup><mrow></mrow><mrow><mo>∘</mo></mrow></msup></math></span>S to 65<span><math><msup><mrow></mrow><mrow><mo>∘</mo></mrow></msup></math></span>S and thus a weaker ACC. The eddying simulations have stronger subpolar gyres under warmer conditions while the response in the non-eddying simulations is inconsistent. In general, SO dynamics are more realistically represented in a mesoscale-resolving model at the cost of requiring an own spin-up.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"191 ","pages":"Article 102426"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1463500324001136/pdfft?md5=c824446514c61f0a304b3c0a1852f65a&pid=1-s2.0-S1463500324001136-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142149145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}