Assessing the effects of climate change on the Gulf of Mexico wave climate using the COWCLIP framework and the PRECIS regional climate model

IF 3.1 3区地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2024-12-08 DOI:10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102486

Christian M. Appendini , Pablo Ruiz-Salcines , Reza Marsooli , Ruth Cerezo-Mota

{"title":"Assessing the effects of climate change on the Gulf of Mexico wave climate using the COWCLIP framework and the PRECIS regional climate model","authors":"Christian M. Appendini , Pablo Ruiz-Salcines , Reza Marsooli , Ruth Cerezo-Mota","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102486","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The present study utilized downscaled wind projections from the PRECIS regional climate model to project and assess changes in wind-generated waves in the Gulf of Mexico under a warmer climate. The methodology entailed simulating waves using a high-resolution and validated third-generation wave model. The wave model was first forced with historical winds from the Climate Forecast Systems Reanalysis (CFSR) to evaluate the accuracy of the model for studying wave climate. The wave model was then forced by downscaled HadGEM winds from PRECIS (HadRM3P) to quantify wave climate change from the historical period (1980–2005) to a future period (2030–2054) under a high emission scenario. Wave climate patterns were analyzed using the framework developed by the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP), which ensures consistency across different studies, allowing researchers to compare results from various regions and models more effectively. The results provide a comprehensive assessment of the wave climate in the Gulf of Mexico, suggesting more intense wave conditions in a warmer climate. The quantified effects of global warming on future wave conditions can inform key economic sectors in the region, such as oil and gas production, shipping, tourism, and fisheries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"194 ","pages":"Article 102486"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ocean Modelling","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1463500324001720","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The present study utilized downscaled wind projections from the PRECIS regional climate model to project and assess changes in wind-generated waves in the Gulf of Mexico under a warmer climate. The methodology entailed simulating waves using a high-resolution and validated third-generation wave model. The wave model was first forced with historical winds from the Climate Forecast Systems Reanalysis (CFSR) to evaluate the accuracy of the model for studying wave climate. The wave model was then forced by downscaled HadGEM winds from PRECIS (HadRM3P) to quantify wave climate change from the historical period (1980–2005) to a future period (2030–2054) under a high emission scenario. Wave climate patterns were analyzed using the framework developed by the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP), which ensures consistency across different studies, allowing researchers to compare results from various regions and models more effectively. The results provide a comprehensive assessment of the wave climate in the Gulf of Mexico, suggesting more intense wave conditions in a warmer climate. The quantified effects of global warming on future wave conditions can inform key economic sectors in the region, such as oil and gas production, shipping, tourism, and fisheries.

查看原文本刊更多论文

利用COWCLIP框架和PRECIS区域气候模式评估气候变化对墨西哥湾波浪气候的影响

本研究利用PRECIS区域气候模式的小尺度风预测来预测和评估墨西哥湾在气候变暖条件下的风浪变化。该方法需要使用高分辨率和经过验证的第三代波浪模型来模拟波浪。首先用气候预报系统再分析（CFSR）的历史风对波浪模式进行了强迫，以评估模型研究波浪气候的准确性。然后，在PRECIS （HadRM3P）的降尺度HadGEM风的强迫下，波浪模式量化了高排放情景下从历史时期（1980-2005）到未来时期（2030-2054）的波浪气候变化。波浪气候模式是使用协调海浪气候项目（COWCLIP）开发的框架进行分析的，该框架确保了不同研究之间的一致性，使研究人员能够更有效地比较来自不同地区和模型的结果。研究结果为墨西哥湾的波浪气候提供了一个全面的评估，表明在更温暖的气候下，波浪条件会更强烈。全球变暖对未来海浪状况的量化影响可以为该地区的主要经济部门提供信息，如石油和天然气生产、航运、旅游和渔业。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Ocean Modelling 地学-海洋学

CiteScore

5.50

自引率

9.40%

发文量

审稿时长

19.6 weeks

期刊介绍： The main objective of Ocean Modelling is to provide rapid communication between those interested in ocean modelling, whether through direct observation, or through analytical, numerical or laboratory models, and including interactions between physical and biogeochemical or biological phenomena. Because of the intimate links between ocean and atmosphere, involvement of scientists interested in influences of either medium on the other is welcome. The journal has a wide scope and includes ocean-atmosphere interaction in various forms as well as pure ocean results. In addition to primary peer-reviewed papers, the journal provides review papers, preliminary communications, and discussions.