Assessing the effects of climate change on the Gulf of Mexico wave climate using the COWCLIP framework and the PRECIS regional climate model

IF 3.1 3区地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2024-12-08 DOI:10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102486

Christian M. Appendini , Pablo Ruiz-Salcines , Reza Marsooli , Ruth Cerezo-Mota

{"title":"Assessing the effects of climate change on the Gulf of Mexico wave climate using the COWCLIP framework and the PRECIS regional climate model","authors":"Christian M. Appendini , Pablo Ruiz-Salcines , Reza Marsooli , Ruth Cerezo-Mota","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102486","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The present study utilized downscaled wind projections from the PRECIS regional climate model to project and assess changes in wind-generated waves in the Gulf of Mexico under a warmer climate. The methodology entailed simulating waves using a high-resolution and validated third-generation wave model. The wave model was first forced with historical winds from the Climate Forecast Systems Reanalysis (CFSR) to evaluate the accuracy of the model for studying wave climate. The wave model was then forced by downscaled HadGEM winds from PRECIS (HadRM3P) to quantify wave climate change from the historical period (1980–2005) to a future period (2030–2054) under a high emission scenario. Wave climate patterns were analyzed using the framework developed by the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP), which ensures consistency across different studies, allowing researchers to compare results from various regions and models more effectively. The results provide a comprehensive assessment of the wave climate in the Gulf of Mexico, suggesting more intense wave conditions in a warmer climate. The quantified effects of global warming on future wave conditions can inform key economic sectors in the region, such as oil and gas production, shipping, tourism, and fisheries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"194 ","pages":"Article 102486"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ocean Modelling","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1463500324001720","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The present study utilized downscaled wind projections from the PRECIS regional climate model to project and assess changes in wind-generated waves in the Gulf of Mexico under a warmer climate. The methodology entailed simulating waves using a high-resolution and validated third-generation wave model. The wave model was first forced with historical winds from the Climate Forecast Systems Reanalysis (CFSR) to evaluate the accuracy of the model for studying wave climate. The wave model was then forced by downscaled HadGEM winds from PRECIS (HadRM3P) to quantify wave climate change from the historical period (1980–2005) to a future period (2030–2054) under a high emission scenario. Wave climate patterns were analyzed using the framework developed by the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP), which ensures consistency across different studies, allowing researchers to compare results from various regions and models more effectively. The results provide a comprehensive assessment of the wave climate in the Gulf of Mexico, suggesting more intense wave conditions in a warmer climate. The quantified effects of global warming on future wave conditions can inform key economic sectors in the region, such as oil and gas production, shipping, tourism, and fisheries.

查看原文本刊更多论文

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Ocean Modelling 地学-海洋学

CiteScore

5.50

自引率

9.40%

发文量

审稿时长

19.6 weeks

期刊介绍： The main objective of Ocean Modelling is to provide rapid communication between those interested in ocean modelling, whether through direct observation, or through analytical, numerical or laboratory models, and including interactions between physical and biogeochemical or biological phenomena. Because of the intimate links between ocean and atmosphere, involvement of scientists interested in influences of either medium on the other is welcome. The journal has a wide scope and includes ocean-atmosphere interaction in various forms as well as pure ocean results. In addition to primary peer-reviewed papers, the journal provides review papers, preliminary communications, and discussions.