Ocean Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Assessing the effects of climate change on the Gulf of Mexico wave climate using the COWCLIP framework and the PRECIS regional climate model","authors":"Christian M. Appendini ,&nbsp;Pablo Ruiz-Salcines ,&nbsp;Reza Marsooli ,&nbsp;Ruth Cerezo-Mota","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102486","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102486","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The present study utilized downscaled wind projections from the PRECIS regional climate model to project and assess changes in wind-generated waves in the Gulf of Mexico under a warmer climate. The methodology entailed simulating waves using a high-resolution and validated third-generation wave model. The wave model was first forced with historical winds from the Climate Forecast Systems Reanalysis (CFSR) to evaluate the accuracy of the model for studying wave climate. The wave model was then forced by downscaled HadGEM winds from PRECIS (HadRM3P) to quantify wave climate change from the historical period (1980–2005) to a future period (2030–2054) under a high emission scenario. Wave climate patterns were analyzed using the framework developed by the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP), which ensures consistency across different studies, allowing researchers to compare results from various regions and models more effectively. The results provide a comprehensive assessment of the wave climate in the Gulf of Mexico, suggesting more intense wave conditions in a warmer climate. The quantified effects of global warming on future wave conditions can inform key economic sectors in the region, such as oil and gas production, shipping, tourism, and fisheries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"194 ","pages":"Article 102486"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143148521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling of hurricane Dorian via the implementation of Wave Boundary Layer Model (WBLM) within the OpenIFS","authors":"Nefeli Makrygianni ,&nbsp;Shunqi Pan ,&nbsp;Michaela Bray ,&nbsp;Jean R. Bidlot","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102469","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102469","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>For over three decades numerous studies have tried to understand the processes and impacts of air–sea interactions on the atmosphere and oceans, particularly in predicting winds and waves under tropical cyclone conditions. Literature has highlighted the critical role of momentum transfer, with various parameterisations proposed for the momentum fluxes, through the drag coefficient (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>C</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>d</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>) and the roughness (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>z</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>). However, accurate predictions still remain a significant challenge. Recently, Du et al. (2017,2019) proposed a comprehensive calculation of the source input function using a Wave Boundary Layer Model (WBLM). However, their study used a standalone model rather than a coupled system. Given the established significance of two-way wind-wave systems (Janssen, 1991), this study implements the WBLM within a coupled model (OpenIFS), to evaluate its impact and discuss the potential and limitations of the method. Numerical simulations were conducted using the WBLM scheme for a selected tropical cyclone, with results compared against in-situ buoy measurements and satellite altimeter data. Furthermore, the new approach’s results were compared with outputs using the default, well-established source input function of OpenIFS (Janssen et al., 1989; Janssen, 1991) to further assess its effectiveness. The findings suggest that the WBLM tends to reduce the commonly overestimated drag and Charnock coefficients. However, comparisons with in-situ observations indicate that the new approach requires substantial refinements to improve wind and wave predictions, since there are cases that the WBLM scheme under-performs the default scheme. This discrepancy may be attributed to the calculation of high-frequency impacts on momentum exchanges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"194 ","pages":"Article 102469"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143148255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Model-based assessment of sustainable adaptation options for an industrialised meso‑tidal estuary","authors":"Johannes Pein ,&nbsp;Joanna Staneva ,&nbsp;Johanna Biederbick ,&nbsp;Corinna Schrum","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102467","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102467","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Human-shaped estuaries play a vital role in supporting a range of economic, ecological and social functions. Such cultural landscapes often require enormous services, which may be provided at the expense of the ecological status and the ability to provide ecosystem services. This is exemplified by the estuaries of the German North Sea coast, of which the Elbe estuary is the most prominent and stands out as the largest and most consistently developed. The port of Hamburg, which is the primary economic driver in the region, has shaped the morphology of the surrounding water body. This has resulted in a number of hydrodynamic effects and sedimentological and ecological consequences, which have been well documented and subject to extensive debate. Despite this understanding, however, there is a tendency to propose solutions that are limited to the smallest local scales and are unable to mitigate the consequences of human interventions that have taken place or continue to take place at the estuarine and catchment scales. The lack of illustrative and quantitative scenario simulations and holistic assessments also hinders the ability to implement ambitious adaptation measures. To step forward, this study presents a model-based assessment including scenario simulations of four prototypical adaptation measures that are potentially capable of mitigating the problems of high turbidity, sedimentation and oxygen minimum without compromising coastal protection. The experimental design comprises a two-month morphodynamic simulation for each adaptation scenario and a one-year simulation of coupled hydrodynamics and ecology. The model simulations demonstrate that the proposed measures have the potential to reduce the siltation of the upper estuary, thereby reducing the need for extensive and costly maintenance dredging. Furthermore, the simulated measures also reduce the tidal range in the densely populated upper estuary, albeit to varying degrees. This also applies to mitigating the consequences of eutrophication, such as the oxygen content in the navigation channel. These differences, as well as the differing scale and effort associated with the four measures, form the basis of a final comparative evaluation based on universal sustainability criteria.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"194 ","pages":"Article 102467"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143148555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Wave climate projections off coastal French Guiana based on high-resolution modelling over the Atlantic Ocean","authors":"Maurizio D'Anna ,&nbsp;Léopold Vedie ,&nbsp;Ali Belmadani ,&nbsp;Déborah Idier ,&nbsp;Remi Thiéblemont ,&nbsp;Philippe Palany ,&nbsp;François Longueville","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102468","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102468","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global warming is altering the atmosphere and ocean dynamics worldwide, including patterns in the generation and propagation of ocean waves, which are important drivers of coastal evolution, flood risk, and renewable energy. In French Guiana (northern South America), where most of the population is concentrated in coastal areas, understanding future wave climate change is critical for regional development, planning and adaptation purposes. The most energetic waves typically occur in boreal winter, in the form of long-distance swell originating from the mid-latitude North Atlantic Ocean. However, existing high-resolution wave climate projections that cover the French Guiana region focus on the hurricane season only (summer-fall). In this study, we used a state-of-the-art basin-scale spectral wave model and wind fields from a high-resolution atmospheric global climate model to simulate present and future winter (November to April) wave climate offshore of French Guiana. The model performance was evaluated against wave data from ERA5 reanalysis, satellite altimetry and coastal buoys between 1984 and 2013. For the future greenhouse gas emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway) RCP-8.5, we found a statistically significant overall projected decrease (∼5 %) in wintertime average significant wave height and mean wave period, with a ∼1° clockwise rotation of mean wave direction. The results suggest that these decreasing trends are primarily driven by changes in large-scale patterns across the Atlantic that counteract an expected increase in local wind speed. We discuss the implications of such projections for mud-bank dynamics along coastal French Guiana, although further local studies are required to address future coastal evolution and hazards. Finally, we identify a need for more in situ wave data near French Guiana to improve quantitative assessments of model performance and allow a correction of possible model biases.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"194 ","pages":"Article 102468"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143148556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On long-crested ocean rogue waves originating from localized amplitude and frequency modulations","authors":"Yuchen He ,&nbsp;Amin Chabchoub","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102464","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102464","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rogue waves, which form on the ocean’s surface, can cause significant damage to marine installations and pose a serious threat to ship safety. Understanding the physical mechanisms behind extreme wave focusing is crucial for predicting their formation and mitigating their impact. Two intensively discussed wave amplification frameworks are the linear and nonlinear focusing mechanisms. These are also known as superposition principle and modulation instability, respectively. We report an experimental study investigating the formation mechanisms in a unidirectional representative JONSWAP-type sea state and show that the nonlinear focusing principle can be sub-categorized into either a localized amplitude or a so far less-studied phase-related frequency modulation, or both being at play. The frequency modulation-type mechanism occurs at a lower probability, as suggested from the distribution of more than 200 recorded extreme events, however, it cannot be underrated or disregarded.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"193 ","pages":"Article 102464"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142748207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"RLM: Rearranged level-set method - An efficient approach for calculating temporally continuous Lagrangian Residual Velocities","authors":"Guangliang Liu ,&nbsp;Fei Ji ,&nbsp;Zhe Liu ,&nbsp;Chongxin Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102466","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102466","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Lagrangian Residual Velocity (LRV) is the subtidal residual current extracted from oscillating tidal water motions to depict the coastal circulation. Since the LRVs are sensitive to the initial time, the most widely used particle tracking method (PTM) must be used repeatedly to obtain temporally continuous LRVs. A new method, the rearranged level-set method (RLM), is introduced to efficiently obtain temporally continuous LRVs. Compared with the analytical solution of LRVs in a long narrow bay, both the RLM-LRVs and the PTM-LRVs can reproduce multiple gyre structures. However, the region of directional bias above 60° in the RLM-LRVs is limited to the narrow gyre conjunction region, while that in the PTM-LRVs extends up to half the bay width and 10% of the bay length. In particular, the RLM can produce temporally continuous LRVs with much higher computational efficiency than the PTM. The RLM also performs well in complex coastal sea areas, such as a cape with a staircase topography, rectangular coastline, and Jiaozhou Bay (JZB), a realistic small waterbody with complex coastline and topography. The RLM-derived temporally continuous LRVs can illustrate the evolution of the two small gyres perturbed by the staircase topography in the cape, and the two gyre cores embedded in the large dominant counterclockwise gyre move separately along the deep channels in the JZB while the PTM cannot. In conclusion, the RLM is a fast and accurate method for calculating temporally continuous LRVs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"194 ","pages":"Article 102466"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143148256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Upgrade of the Chilean Wave Atlas database","authors":"Sebastian Omar Correa Araya ,&nbsp;Catalina Aguirre ,&nbsp;Diego Becerra ,&nbsp;Mauricio Molina ,&nbsp;Pablo Vilchez ,&nbsp;Sergio Bahamóndez","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102456","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102456","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Chilean Wave Atlas (AOC1), a reliable hindcast developed in 2017 for the academic and engineering community, diminished its usefulness due to the obsolescence of wind data provided by ERA-Interim reanalysis. This study presents the calibration and validation of a new wave hindcast forced using hourly winds data from ERA5 reanalysis. A total of 24 simulations were conducted: 15 using the semi-empirical ST4 parameterization and 9 using the observed-based ST6 parameterization, both implemented in WaveWatch III. Model results were compared with in-situ wave data from buoys along the Chilean coast. Generally, the ST4 physics package demonstrated superior performance with minimal variability in error statistical parameters between simulations. However, the observed-based ST6 parameterization produced the best results for simulating wave direction. By defining a multi-criteria performance score, the optimal model configuration was selected, and a new hindcast was generated for the period between 1979 and 2022. This hindcast includes hourly fields of significant wave height, mean and peak wave period, and mean and peak wave direction for the Pacific Ocean, as well as 72 locations with directional spectra. The upgraded Chilean Wave Atlas (AOC3) significantly improves the performance of AOC1 when compared with satellite-derived wave heights along the Chilean coast. Furthermore, the AOC3 data show good performance compared to other freely available hindcasts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"193 ","pages":"Article 102456"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142702167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Advancing sea level anomaly modeling in the black sea with LSTM Auto-Encoders: A novel approach","authors":"A. Yavuzdoğan ,&nbsp;E. Tanir Kayıkçı","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102463","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102463","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rising sea levels pose significant risks to coastal communities and ecosystems. Accurate modeling of sea level changes is crucial for effective environmental management and disaster mitigation. Machine learning methods are emerging as an important asset in improving sea level predictions and understanding the impacts of climate change. Especially, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models have emerged as a powerful tool for sea level anomaly modeling, but there is an increasing need for more advanced models in this area. This study enhances existing methodologies by introducing a novel approach using an LSTM Auto-Encoder model, designed to compress input data into a lower-dimensional latent space before reconstructing it, thereby capturing complex temporal dependencies and anomalies effectively. We compared LSTM Auto-Encoder model performance with that of a Stacked LSTM network, which learns complex temporal patterns through multiple layers, and a traditional damped-persistence statistical model. Our results demonstrate that the LSTM Auto-Encoder model not only outperformed these models in predicting sea level anomalies across various lead times but also exhibited superior generalization capabilities across both satellite altimeter and in-situ data. These findings highlight the potential of the LSTM Auto-Encoder model as a powerful tool in coastal management and climate change studies, underscoring the critical role of advanced machine learning techniques in enhancing our predictive abilities and informing disaster preparedness strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"193 ","pages":"Article 102463"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142702169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving ecological modeling: Integrating CNOP-P and adjoint assimilation in a coupled ecological model","authors":"Yongzhi Liu ,&nbsp;Minjie Xu ,&nbsp;Xianqing Lv","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102462","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102462","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ecological modeling is an important methodology for studying the spatio-temporal evolution of marine ecosystem. Given the significant role of model parameters as a major source of uncertainty in ecological models, we propose a novel approach by combining the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation related to Parameters (CNOP-P) method with the adjoint assimilation method to enhance predictive accuracy. CNOP-P denotes the parameter perturbation that leads to the greatest deviation of the model's development from the reference state. In comparison to other sensitivity analysis methods, this combined approach proves to be more efficient. Considering the nonlinearity of the model structure, the maximum development of the model does not consistently align with the extreme parameter values within the confidence interval. Minor parameter errors can lead to substantial model development, significantly impacting the precision of ecological models. Notably, traditional sensitivity analysis methods such as one-at-a-time (OAT) sensitivity analysis and global sensitivity analysis (GSA) methods fail to capture this characteristic. On the other hand, the GSA methods incur substantial computational costs and tends to overestimate the sensitivity of the most sensitive parameters while underestimating the sensitivity of less sensitive parameters. The combined approach of CNOP-P and adjoint assimilation enables the assimilation of satellite data and the simultaneous optimization of model parameters alongside the CNOP-P calculations. This integration substantially improves both efficiency and precision of the ecological model, thereby improving predictive skill.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"193 ","pages":"Article 102462"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142702170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of phytoplankton, CDOM, and suspended sediments on the vertical attenuation of light, changing heat content and circulation on a continental shelf: A modelling study of the Great Barrier Reef","authors":"Anna Maggiorano,&nbsp;Mark Baird,&nbsp;Clothilde Langlais,&nbsp;Mathieu Mongin,&nbsp;Jennifer Skerratt","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102465","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102465","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Solar radiation propagating through the water column is scattered and absorbed by optically active constituents in the ocean, in particular phytoplankton, coloured-dissolved organic matter (CDOM), suspended inorganic particulate matter (SPIM) and detritus. These wavelength-dependent processes affect the vertical distribution of heating in the water column and its stratification. The continental shelf north-east of Australia, containing the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), is characterised by highly seasonal and intermittent freshwater inputs leading to large sediment and nutrient discharges that strongly impact the water optical properties. While this complex mixture of optically active constituents is known to affect water clarity and the euphotic zone depth in the river plumes, its impact on the ocean circulation and thermal balance is still unclear at the scale of the GBR. In this study, we use a hydrodynamic-optical-biogeochemical ocean model to investigate the feedback between heat absorption by phytoplankton, CDOM and suspended sediments and ocean dynamics in the GBR region. The results show that the attenuation of the vertical heat flux due to phytoplankton, CDOM and SPIM concentrations is stronger on the continental shelf and dominated by the absorption and scattering from suspended sediments. The presence of absorbing constituents in the water column drives a temperature increase at the surface and a decrease below the mixed layer with stronger stratification and greater heat losses to the atmosphere. Inshore, the ocean heat content increases by up to 1% due to optically active constituents. Offshore, absorption by optically active constituents near the surface is compensated by less absorption underneath the mixed layer resulting in a decrease in the ocean heat content of the top 500 m. We find that considering a spatially- and temporally-variable vertical attenuation of heat due to multiple optically-active components improves hydrodynamic model skill. This study highlights the importance of the impact of water clarity and its spatial variability on hydrodynamic processes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"193 ","pages":"Article 102465"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142702168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}