Nature Geoscience最新文献_第6页

Recent southwestern US drought exacerbated by anthropogenic aerosols and tropical ocean warming 最近，人为气溶胶和热带海洋变暖加剧了美国西南部的干旱

IF 16.1 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2025-07-09 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01728-x

Yan-Ning Kuo, Flavio Lehner, Isla R. Simpson, Clara Deser, Adam S. Phillips, Matthew Newman, Sang-Ik Shin, Spencer Wong, Julie M. Arblaster

{"title":"Recent southwestern US drought exacerbated by anthropogenic aerosols and tropical ocean warming","authors":"Yan-Ning Kuo, Flavio Lehner, Isla R. Simpson, Clara Deser, Adam S. Phillips, Matthew Newman, Sang-Ik Shin, Spencer Wong, Julie M. Arblaster","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01728-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-025-01728-x","url":null,"abstract":"The southwestern United States is currently in a multi-decade drought that has developed since a precipitation maximum in the 1980s. While anthropogenic warming has made the drought more severe, it is the decline in winter–spring precipitation that has had a more profound effect on water resources and ecosystems. This precipitation decline is not well understood beyond its attribution to the post-1980 La Niña-like cooling trend in tropical sea surface temperatures, which caused a North Pacific anti-cyclonic atmospheric circulation trend conducive to declining precipitation in the southwestern United States. Using a hierarchy of model simulations, we show that, even under El Niño-like sea surface temperature trends, there is a tendency towards a North Pacific anti-cyclonic circulation trend and declining precipitation in the southwestern United States, counter to the canonical El Niño teleconnection. This unintuitive yet robust circulation change arises from non-additive responses to tropical mean sea surface temperature warming and radiative effects from anthropogenic aerosols. The post-1980 period exhibits the fastest southwestern US soil moisture drying among past and future periods of similar length due to the combination of this forced precipitation decline and anthropogenic warming. While the precipitation trend might reverse due to future projected El Niño-like warming and aerosol emissions reduction, it is unlikely to substantially alleviate the currently projected future drought risk. Climate model simulations suggest that both anthropogenic aerosols and tropical ocean warming have contributed to reduced precipitation over the southwestern United States in recent decades, thus making the current drought more likely than previously thought.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"18 7","pages":"578-585"},"PeriodicalIF":16.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144586666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

North Pacific response to warming sustains drought in the Southwest US 北太平洋对气候变暖的反应维持了美国西南部的干旱

IF 16.1 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2025-07-09 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01727-y

引用次数: 0

North Pacific ocean–atmosphere responses to Holocene and future warming drive Southwest US drought 北太平洋海洋-大气对全新世和未来变暖的响应导致美国西南部干旱

IF 16.1 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2025-07-09 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01726-z

Victoria L. Todd, Timothy M. Shanahan, Pedro N. DiNezio, Jeremy M. Klavans, Peter J. Fawcett, R. Scott Anderson, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Allegra N. LeGrande, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Alexander J. Thompson, Jiang Zhu

{"title":"North Pacific ocean–atmosphere responses to Holocene and future warming drive Southwest US drought","authors":"Victoria L. Todd, Timothy M. Shanahan, Pedro N. DiNezio, Jeremy M. Klavans, Peter J. Fawcett, R. Scott Anderson, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Allegra N. LeGrande, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Alexander J. Thompson, Jiang Zhu","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01726-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-025-01726-z","url":null,"abstract":"The Southwest United States is experiencing severe and persistent drought, although uncertainties regarding the causes limit our ability to predict changes in water availability. The severity of the current drought has been attributed to a combination of warming and natural changes in atmospheric circulation, suggesting that current rainfall deficits may improve as natural oscillations reverse sign. Here we use new leaf-wax stable isotope reconstructions and simulations for the mid-Holocene (6 thousand years ago) and demonstrate that moderate warming of the Northern Hemisphere can produce drought over the Southwest United States through an ocean–atmosphere response originating in the North Pacific. The patterns of ocean warming and rainfall change resemble the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, indicating that this mode can be excited by external forcings. A similar response to warming is evident in future projections, leading to sustained winter precipitation deficits through the mid-twenty-first century. However, the magnitudes of past and current precipitation deficits associated with this North Pacific response are systematically underestimated in models, possibly due to a weak coupling of ocean–atmosphere interactions. Projections may also underestimate the magnitude of this precipitation response to changes in the North Pacific, leading to greater drought risk in this already water-poor region. Mid-Holocene and the future warming induces a North Pacific response resulting in sustained winter precipitation deficits and drought over the Southwestern United States, according to new palaeoclimate data and climate model simulations.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"18 7","pages":"646-652"},"PeriodicalIF":16.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144586665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Accelerating increase in the duration of heatwaves under global warming 在全球变暖的情况下，热浪持续时间的加速增加

IF 16.1 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2025-07-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01737-w

Cristian Martinez-Villalobos, Danning Fu, Paul C. Loikith, J. David Neelin

{"title":"Accelerating increase in the duration of heatwaves under global warming","authors":"Cristian Martinez-Villalobos, Danning Fu, Paul C. Loikith, J. David Neelin","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01737-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-025-01737-w","url":null,"abstract":"Heatwaves are expected to both increase in frequency and duration under global warming. The probability distributions of heatwave durations are shaped by day-to-day correlations in temperature and so cannot be simply inferred from changes in the probabilities of daily temperature extremes. Here we show from statistical analysis of global historical and projected temperature data that changes in long-duration heatwaves increase nonlinearly with temperature. Specifically, from analysis informed by theory for autocorrelated fluctuations applied to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) reanalysis and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate model simulations, we find that the nonlinearity results in acceleration of the rate increase with warming; that is, each increment of regional time-averaged warming increases the characteristic duration scale of long heatwaves more than the previous increment. We show that the curve for this acceleration can be approximately collapsed onto a single dependence across regions by normalizing by local temperature variability. Projections of future change can thus be compared to observations of recent change over part of their range, which supports the near-future-projected acceleration. We also find that the longest, most uncommon heatwaves for a given region have the greatest increase in likelihood, yielding a compounding source of nonlinear impacts. The duration of long heatwaves increases at an accelerating rate with warming such that a large increase in the risk of long-lasting heatwaves results from relatively modest warming, according to an analysis of historical and projected heatwaves.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"18 8","pages":"716-723"},"PeriodicalIF":16.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144568372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global-scale shifts in marine ecological stoichiometry over the past 50 years 过去50年海洋生态化学计量的全球尺度变化

IF 16.1 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01735-y

Ji Liu, Hai Wang, Juan Mou, Josep Penuelas, Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo, Adam C. Martiny, Guiyao Zhou, David A. Hutchins, Keisuke Inomura, Michael W. Lomas, Mojtaba Fakhraee, Adam Pellegrini, Tyler J. Kohler, Curtis A. Deutsch, Noah Planavsky, Brian Lapointe, Yong Zhang, Yanyan Li, Jiacong Zhou, Yixuan Zhang, Siyi Sun, Yong Li, Wei Zhang, Junji Cao, Ji Chen

{"title":"Global-scale shifts in marine ecological stoichiometry over the past 50 years","authors":"Ji Liu, Hai Wang, Juan Mou, Josep Penuelas, Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo, Adam C. Martiny, Guiyao Zhou, David A. Hutchins, Keisuke Inomura, Michael W. Lomas, Mojtaba Fakhraee, Adam Pellegrini, Tyler J. Kohler, Curtis A. Deutsch, Noah Planavsky, Brian Lapointe, Yong Zhang, Yanyan Li, Jiacong Zhou, Yixuan Zhang, Siyi Sun, Yong Li, Wei Zhang, Junji Cao, Ji Chen","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01735-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-025-01735-y","url":null,"abstract":"The elemental stoichiometry of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) regulates marine biogeochemical cycles and underpins the Redfield ratio paradigm. However, its global variability and response to environmental change remain poorly constrained. Here we compile a global dataset of 56,031 plankton (particulate) and 388,515 seawater (dissolved) samples from 1971 to 2020, spanning surface to 1,000 m depth, to assess spatial and temporal dynamics in marine C:N:P ratios. We show that planktonic C:P and N:P, and oceanic C:N and C:P ratios, consistently exceed Redfield ratio throughout the study period, indicating widespread deviation from canonical stoichiometry. Planktonic C:N and N:P ratios rose markedly in the late twentieth century, followed by a decline, suggesting a progressive alleviation of P limitation, probably driven by increased anthropogenic P inputs. Depth-resolved patterns show decreasing oceanic C:N and C:P, and increasing N:P ratios with depth, attributable to differential remineralization and microbial nutrient cycling. Our findings highlight dynamic, non-static stoichiometric patterns over decadal scales, offering critical observational constraints for refining the representation of elemental cycling in biogeochemical models and improving projections of marine ecosystem responses to global change. Fifty years of plankton and water samples show that the proportion of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus in the ocean now substantially differs from the Redfield ratio, probably reflecting a reduction in phosphorus limitation.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"18 8","pages":"769-778"},"PeriodicalIF":16.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144547161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fast ice — the last line of defence for weakened Antarctic ice shelves 坚冰——脆弱的南极冰架的最后一道防线

IF 16.1 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01714-3

引用次数: 0

Large-scale ice-shelf calving events follow prolonged amplifications in flexure 大规模的冰架崩解事件发生在长时间的弯曲放大之后

IF 16.1 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01713-4

Nathan J. Teder, Luke G. Bennetts, Phillip A. Reid, Robert A. Massom, Jordan P. A. Pitt, Theodore A. Scambos, Alexander D. Fraser

{"title":"Large-scale ice-shelf calving events follow prolonged amplifications in flexure","authors":"Nathan J. Teder, Luke G. Bennetts, Phillip A. Reid, Robert A. Massom, Jordan P. A. Pitt, Theodore A. Scambos, Alexander D. Fraser","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01713-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-025-01713-4","url":null,"abstract":"The retreat of Antarctic ice shelves due to calving and the subsequent reduction in buttressing of the Antarctic Ice Sheet are of major concern for future sea-level rise. Sudden, widespread calving of weakened ice shelves has been linked to fracture amplification forced by ocean swell following regional sea-ice losses, but increases in the magnitudes and durations of swell-induced ice-shelf flexure in the lead-ups to calving events have not been tracked. Here we present 7-year datasets of sea-ice-barrier lengths and shelf-front flexural stress that encompass large-scale calving events for the Wilkins and Voyeykov ice shelves. We find that the ice shelves exhibit similar preconditioning patterns, characterized by prolonged amplifications in flexure and the collapse of adjoining fast-ice barriers. We propose a conceptual model for the swell–sea-ice–shelf-front conditions that lead to calving events, show that it fits other major calving events and discuss the likely importance of sea-ice loss for the future of ice shelves. The loss of sea ice enhances swell-induced flexural stress in Antarctic ice shelves before large-scale calving events, according to satellite observations and swell-induced flexural stress modelling.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"18 7","pages":"599-606"},"PeriodicalIF":16.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-025-01713-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144520505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Soil carbon accrual and crop production enhanced by sustainable subsoil management 可持续地下土壤管理促进土壤碳积累和作物生产

IF 16.1 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01720-5

Zheng-Rong Kan, Zhenzhen Li, Wulf Amelung, Hai-Lin Zhang, Rattan Lal, Roland Bol, Xinmin Bian, Jian Liu, Yaguang Xue, Feng-Min Li, Haishui Yang

{"title":"Soil carbon accrual and crop production enhanced by sustainable subsoil management","authors":"Zheng-Rong Kan, Zhenzhen Li, Wulf Amelung, Hai-Lin Zhang, Rattan Lal, Roland Bol, Xinmin Bian, Jian Liu, Yaguang Xue, Feng-Min Li, Haishui Yang","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01720-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-025-01720-5","url":null,"abstract":"Soil conservation practices such as no-till and straw mulching have been practised worldwide, but they frequently show low potential to increase organic carbon and crop grain production, especially in rice paddy systems. Here a ditch-buried straw return technique is proposed to co-enhance soil carbon and crop yield in paddy systems through injection of straw into the subsoil. This technique can protect most of the surface soil and disturb only 10% of the whole field through deep tillage. A 15-year ditch-buried straw return experiment in rice–wheat cropping has shown that compared to the dominant rotary-tillage straw return management, grain yield was increased under ditch-buried straw return by 15% without any additional fertilization inputs. Ditch-buried straw return also increased soil organic carbon stocks at 0–40 cm depth by 46% (17.2 Mg ha−1) mainly through the enhanced conversion of straw-derived carbon into mineral-associated fungal necromass. Overall, ditch-buried straw return decreased net CO2 equivalent emissions by 34% and increased net economic benefits by 18%. Joint enhancements of soil organic carbon and crop yield under ditch-buried straw return were further validated using meta-analysis around China. We conclude that ditch-buried straw return may work as an effective approach for subsoil management. The injection of straw into subsoils can increase soil organic carbon and crop yields substantially and could therefore provide an effective approach for subsoil management in croplands, according to 15 years of field experiments on rice–wheat croplands in China.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"18 7","pages":"631-638"},"PeriodicalIF":16.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144520509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Big soil benefits from buried straw 大面积的土壤受益于埋稻草

IF 16.1 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01732-1

Zhongkui Luo

引用次数: 0

Need for balance in reservoir impact research 储层影响研究需要平衡

IF 16.1 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2025-06-25 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01736-x

Xingcheng Yan, Sijiu Zhang, Yuchen Chen, Qiuwen Chen, Jianyun Zhang, Tao Feng, Ruxia Qiao, Xudong Zhou, Hao Sun

引用次数: 0