Nature Geoscience最新文献

Observational constraints imply limited future Atlantic meridional overturning circulation weakening 观测限制暗示未来大西洋经向翻转环流减弱有限

IF 18.3 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01709-0

David B. Bonan, Andrew F. Thompson, Tapio Schneider, Laure Zanna, Kyle C. Armour, Shantong Sun

{"title":"Observational constraints imply limited future Atlantic meridional overturning circulation weakening","authors":"David B. Bonan, Andrew F. Thompson, Tapio Schneider, Laure Zanna, Kyle C. Armour, Shantong Sun","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01709-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01709-0","url":null,"abstract":"The degree to which the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) weakens over the twenty-first century varies widely across climate models, with some predicting substantial weakening. Here we show that this uncertainty can be greatly reduced by using a thermal-wind expression that relates the AMOC strength to the meridional density difference and the overturning depth in the Atlantic. This expression captures the intermodel spread in AMOC weakening, with most of the spread arising from overturning depth changes. The overturning depth also establishes a crucial link between the present-day and future AMOC strength. Climate models with a stronger and deeper present-day overturning tend to predict larger weakening and shoaling under warming because the present-day North Atlantic is less stratified, allowing for a deeper penetration of surface buoyancy flux changes, larger density changes at depth and, consequently, larger AMOC weakening. By incorporating observational constraints, we conclude that the AMOC will experience limited weakening of about 3–6 Sv (about 18–43%) by the end of this century, regardless of emissions scenario. These results indicate that the uncertainty in twenty-first-century AMOC weakening and the propensity to predict substantial AMOC weakening can be attributed primarily to climate model biases in accurately simulating the present-day ocean stratification.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"58 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144165238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Author Correction: Drag acting on suspended sediment increased by microbial colonization 作者更正：微生物定植增加了对悬浮沉积物的阻力

IF 18.3 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01723-2

Naiyu Zhang, Haochen Li, Fan Xu, Charlotte E. L. Thompson, Ian H. Townend, Qing He

引用次数: 0

Direct observations of transient weakening during phase transformations in quartz and olivine 石英和橄榄石相变过程中瞬态减弱的直接观察

IF 18.3 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2025-05-23 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01703-6

Andrew J. Cross, Rellie M. Goddard, Kathryn M. Kumamoto, David L. Goldsby, Lars N. Hansen, Haiyan Chen, Diede Hein, Christopher A. Thom, M. Adaire Nehring, Thomas Breithaupt, David Wallis

{"title":"Direct observations of transient weakening during phase transformations in quartz and olivine","authors":"Andrew J. Cross, Rellie M. Goddard, Kathryn M. Kumamoto, David L. Goldsby, Lars N. Hansen, Haiyan Chen, Diede Hein, Christopher A. Thom, M. Adaire Nehring, Thomas Breithaupt, David Wallis","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01703-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01703-6","url":null,"abstract":"Phase transformations are widely invoked as a source of rheological weakening during subduction, continental collision, mantle convection and various other geodynamic phenomena. However, despite more than half a century of research, the likelihood and magnitude of such weakening in nature remain poorly constrained. Here we use experiments performed on a synchrotron beamline to reveal transient weakening of up to three orders of magnitude during the polymorphic quartz to coesite (SiO2) and olivine to ringwoodite (Fe2SiO4) phase transitions. Weakening becomes increasingly prominent as the transformation outpaces deformation. We suggest that this behaviour is broadly applicable among silicate minerals undergoing first-order phase transitions and examine the likelihood of weakening due to the olivine-spinel, (Mg,Fe)2SiO4, transformation during subduction. Modelling suggests that cold, wet slabs are most susceptible to transformational weakening, consistent with geophysical observations of slab stagnation in the mantle transition zone beneath the western Pacific. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating transformational weakening into geodynamic simulations and provides a quantitative basis for doing so.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144122450","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global mangrove growth variability driven by climatic oscillation-induced sea-level fluctuations 由气候振荡引起的海平面波动驱动的全球红树林生长变异性

IF 18.3 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2025-05-23 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01701-8

Zhen Zhang, Xiangzhong Luo, Daniel A. Friess, Yangfan Li

{"title":"Global mangrove growth variability driven by climatic oscillation-induced sea-level fluctuations","authors":"Zhen Zhang, Xiangzhong Luo, Daniel A. Friess, Yangfan Li","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01701-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01701-8","url":null,"abstract":"Mangroves are a carbon-dense and highly productive ecosystem but can experience massive dieback under environmental extremes. Climatic oscillations, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are major drivers of global climate variability, yet their impact on mangrove growth at the global scale remains uncertain. Here, using long-term satellite observations from 2001 to 2020, we show that more than 50% of global mangrove areas experience significant variations during ENSO events, exhibiting a seesaw-like pattern across the Pacific Basin where mangrove leaf area decreases in the western Pacific but increases in the eastern Pacific during El Niño, with the reverse occurring during La Niña. The Indian Ocean Dipole affects mangroves across the Indian Ocean similarly but with a lower magnitude relative to ENSO. These patterns are driven by corresponding sea-level fluctuations across the Pacific and Indian ocean basins, with local contributions from lunar nodal cycles. Our study highlights the crucial role of short-term sea-level fluctuations driven by climatic oscillations in dominating the variability of coastal wetland growth and, consequently, in influencing the blue carbon sink.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144122449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Strong 2023–2024 El Niño generated by ocean dynamics 2023-2024年强El Niño由海洋动力学产生

IF 18.3 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2025-05-23 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01700-9

Qihua Peng, Shang-Ping Xie, Ayumu Miyamoto, Clara Deser, Pengcheng Zhang, Matthew T. Luongo

{"title":"Strong 2023–2024 El Niño generated by ocean dynamics","authors":"Qihua Peng, Shang-Ping Xie, Ayumu Miyamoto, Clara Deser, Pengcheng Zhang, Matthew T. Luongo","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01700-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01700-9","url":null,"abstract":"Globally, 2023 was the hottest year on record and saw the development of a strong El Niño with widespread impacts. This El Niño event was unusual for its strong oceanic warming yet muted Southern Oscillation and wind anomalies over the tropical Pacific. This discrepancy is perplexing given the historically close coupling of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. Atmospheric model experiments show that warming in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans in 2023 and the slow background sea surface temperature trend reduced the surface wind response over the tropical Pacific by modulating the Walker circulation. We develop a hindcast system that reproduces 87% of the June–December El Niño warming even without wind stress feedback after April 2023. The intense oceanic warming was primarily driven by the strong build-up of western Pacific heat content during the preceding prolonged La Niña. This indicates that the 2023–2024 El Niño primarily arose from oceanic processes, independent of the classic positive Bjerknes feedback mechanism. Due to the strong ocean memory, this event was highly predictable at long time leads. Climate model simulations suggest that such 2023-like El Niños may become more frequent in a warming climate.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144122882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate stabilization by alkalinity production from pyrite burial during oceanic anoxia 海洋缺氧时黄铁矿埋藏产生的碱性对气候的稳定作用

IF 18.3 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01698-0

Mojtaba Fakhraee, Kohen W. Bauer, Noah J. Planavsky, Christopher T. Reinhard, Sean A. Crowe

{"title":"Climate stabilization by alkalinity production from pyrite burial during oceanic anoxia","authors":"Mojtaba Fakhraee, Kohen W. Bauer, Noah J. Planavsky, Christopher T. Reinhard, Sean A. Crowe","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01698-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01698-0","url":null,"abstract":"Pyrite formation and burial in anoxic ocean environments helps to regulate the acid–base balance of the oceans. Despite its potential importance, the impact of this anoxic alkalinity production on the global carbon cycle and Earth’s long-term climate regulation has been largely overlooked. Here, using a coupled carbon–sulfur cycle model, we show that pyrite burial could drive 5–46 Tmol yr−1 of alkalinity production—up to about six times the modern background volcanic carbon flux—throughout the Phanerozoic eon. During periods of widespread oceanic anoxia (known as oceanic anoxic events), alkalinity production via pyrite burial is amplified and so becomes an important stabilizing mechanism for the climate system, counterbalancing carbon emissions from contemporaneous large igneous province volcanism. Our results indicate that the anoxia–alkalinity feedback was engaged during several of the most severe oceanic anoxic events from large igneous provinces during the past 300 Myr, and thus played a role in limiting the overall impacts of these events on the biosphere and climate. We conclude that ocean deoxygenation may provide an important negative feedback on ocean–atmosphere CO2 partitioning, helping to buffer the impacts of CO2 emission on the Earth system.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"79 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144104196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Semi-continuous release of Cordilleran Ice Sheet meltwater between 20,000 and 17,000 years ago 在2万到1.7万年前，科迪勒拉冰盖的融水半连续释放

IF 18.3 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01694-4

Paul S. Wilcox, Michael C. Meyer, Daniela Festi

引用次数: 0

Volcanic forcing of early oxygen 火山对早期氧气的强迫作用

IF 18.3 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01706-3

Alison Hunt

引用次数: 0

Galactic messages carried by moissanite 莫桑石携带的银河信息