Nature Geoscience最新文献

Weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation driven by subarctic freshening since the mid-twentieth century 二十世纪中叶以来亚北极清新驱动的大西洋经向翻转环流减弱现象

IF 18.3 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01568-1

Gabriel M. Pontes, Laurie Menviel

{"title":"Weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation driven by subarctic freshening since the mid-twentieth century","authors":"Gabriel M. Pontes, Laurie Menviel","doi":"10.1038/s41561-024-01568-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01568-1","url":null,"abstract":"The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is the main driver of northward heat transport in the Atlantic Ocean today, setting global climate patterns. Whether global warming has affected the strength of this overturning circulation over the past century is still debated: observational studies suggest that there has been persistent weakening since the mid-twentieth century, whereas climate models systematically simulate a stable circulation. Here, using Earth system and eddy-permitting coupled ocean–sea-ice models, we show that a freshening of the subarctic Atlantic Ocean and weakening of the overturning circulation increase the temperature and salinity of the South Atlantic on a decadal timescale through the propagation of Kelvin and Rossby waves. We also show that accounting for upper-end meltwater input in historical simulations significantly improves the data–model agreement on past changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, yielding a slowdown of 0.46 sverdrups per decade since 1950. Including estimates of subarctic meltwater input for the coming century suggests that this circulation could be 33% weaker than its anthropogenically unperturbed state under 2 °C of global warming, which could be reached over the coming decade. Such a weakening of the overturning circulation would substantially affect the climate and ecosystems.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"248 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142665373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Recovery of ecosystem productivity in China due to the Clean Air Action plan 中国因清洁空气行动计划而恢复生态系统生产力

IF 18.3 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01586-z

Hao Zhou, Xu Yue, Huibin Dai, Guannan Geng, Wenping Yuan, Jiquan Chen, Guofeng Shen, Tianyi Zhang, Jun Zhu, Hong Liao

{"title":"Recovery of ecosystem productivity in China due to the Clean Air Action plan","authors":"Hao Zhou, Xu Yue, Huibin Dai, Guannan Geng, Wenping Yuan, Jiquan Chen, Guofeng Shen, Tianyi Zhang, Jun Zhu, Hong Liao","doi":"10.1038/s41561-024-01586-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01586-z","url":null,"abstract":"Severe air pollution reduces ecosystem carbon assimilation through the vegetation damaging effects of ozone and by altering the climate through aerosol effects, exacerbating global warming. In response, China implemented the Clean Air Action plan in 2013 to reduce anthropogenic emissions. Here we assess the impact of air pollution reductions due to the Clean Air Action plan on net primary productivity (NPP) in China during the period 2014–2020 using multiple measurements, process-based models and machine learning algorithms. The Clean Air Action plan led to a national NPP increase of 26.3 ± 27.9 TgC yr−1, of which 20.1 ± 10.9 TgC yr−1 is attributed to aerosol reductions, driven by both the enhanced light availability as a result of decreased black carbon concentrations and the increased precipitation caused by weakened aerosol climatic effects. The impact of ozone amelioration became more important over time, surpassing the effects of aerosol reduction by 2020, and is expected to drive future NPP recovery. Two machine learning models simulated similar NPP recoveries of 42.8 ± 26.8 TgC yr−1 and 43.4 ± 30.1 TgC yr−1. Our study highlights substantial carbon gains from controlling aerosols and surface ozone, underscoring the co-benefits of regulating air pollution for public health and carbon neutrality in China.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"246 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142637063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Extratropical forests increasingly at risk due to lightning fires 由于闪电火灾，热带外森林面临的风险越来越大

IF 18.3 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2023-11-09 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01322-z

Thomas A. J. Janssen, Matthew W. Jones, Declan Finney, Guido R. van der Werf, Dave van Wees, Wenxuan Xu, Sander Veraverbeke

{"title":"Extratropical forests increasingly at risk due to lightning fires","authors":"Thomas A. J. Janssen, Matthew W. Jones, Declan Finney, Guido R. van der Werf, Dave van Wees, Wenxuan Xu, Sander Veraverbeke","doi":"10.1038/s41561-023-01322-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-023-01322-z","url":null,"abstract":"Fires can be ignited by people or by natural causes, which are almost exclusively lightning strikes. Discriminating between lightning and anthropogenic fires is paramount when estimating impacts of changing socioeconomic and climatological conditions on fire activity. Here we use reference data of fire ignition locations, cause and burned area from seven world regions in a machine-learning approach to obtain a global attribution of lightning and anthropogenic ignitions as dominant fire ignition sources. We show that 77% (uncertainty expressed as one standard deviation = 8%) of the burned area in extratropical intact forests currently stems from lightning and that these areas will probably experience 11 to 31% more lightning per degree warming. Extratropical forests are of global importance for carbon storage. They currently experience high fire-related forest losses and have, per unit area, among the largest fire emissions on Earth. Future increases in lightning in intact forest may therefore compound the positive feedback loop between climate change and extratropical wildfires. Lightning-induced fires account for 77% of the burned area in extratropical intact forests, and lightning ignitions will probably become more frequent as the global climate warms, according to a global attribution of lightning and anthropogenic fires from 2001 to 2020.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"16 12","pages":"1136-1144"},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2023-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01322-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71524171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Diverse slip behaviour of velocity-weakening fault barriers 速度弱化断层屏障的不同滑动行为

IF 18.3 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2023-11-09 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01312-1

Diego Molina-Ormazabal, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Andrés Tassara

{"title":"Diverse slip behaviour of velocity-weakening fault barriers","authors":"Diego Molina-Ormazabal, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Andrés Tassara","doi":"10.1038/s41561-023-01312-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-023-01312-1","url":null,"abstract":"Seismic barriers are fault portions that promote earthquake rupture arrest and fault segmentation. Despite their fundamental role in controlling the maximum magnitude of earthquakes, the nature of seismic barriers is still uncertain. A common interpretation of barriers as having velocity-strengthening friction—steady-state friction that increases with increasing slip velocity—is only partially consistent with the thermal control of friction observed in laboratory experiments, which implies that most relevant materials in subduction channels are velocity-weakening at seismogenic depths. Here we examine the possibility of velocity-weakening barriers by conducting earthquake cycle simulations along a velocity-weakening megathrust segmented by lateral variations of frictional properties and normal stress. We show that velocity-weakening fault segments display a wide range of behaviours, including permanent barrier behaviour. They can be locked during long periods and release their slip deficit either seismically or aseismically. We quantify the efficiency of velocity-weakening barriers in arresting ruptures using a non-dimensional parameter based on fracture mechanics theory that can be constrained by observations on natural faults. Our results provide a theoretical framework that could improve physics-based seismic hazard assessment. Velocity-weakening seismic barriers in subduction zones display a range of behaviours consistent with geologic structural control on earthquake seismicity, according to earthquake cycle simulations along a megathrust.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"16 12","pages":"1200-1207"},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2023-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71524170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Bipolar control on changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide over millennial timescales 千年尺度上大气二氧化碳变化的双极控制

IF 18.3 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2023-11-08 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01329-6

引用次数: 0

A conversation on air pollution in the United States 关于美国空气污染的对话

IF 18.3 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01307-y

Xujia Jiang

引用次数: 0

A rock record of H2 production in the ancient Earth 古代地球H2生成的岩石记录

IF 18.3 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01321-0

引用次数: 0

A conversation on air pollution in China 谈中国的空气污染

IF 18.3 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01308-x

Xujia Jiang

引用次数: 0

Carbonate’s fluid history 碳酸盐的流体历史

IF 18.3 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01309-w

Ashley J. King

引用次数: 0

Atmospheric new particle formation from the CERN CLOUD experiment 欧洲核子研究中心云实验产生的大气新粒子

IF 18.3 1区地球科学

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01305-0

Jasper Kirkby, António Amorim, Urs Baltensperger, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Theodoros Christoudias, Joachim Curtius, Neil M. Donahue, Imad El Haddad, Richard C. Flagan, Hamish Gordon, Armin Hansel, Hartwig Harder, Heikki Junninen, Markku Kulmala, Andreas Kürten, Ari Laaksonen, Katrianne Lehtipalo, Jos Lelieveld, Ottmar Möhler, Ilona Riipinen, Frank Stratmann, Antonio Tomé, Annele Virtanen, Rainer Volkamer, Paul M. Winkler, Douglas R. Worsnop

{"title":"Atmospheric new particle formation from the CERN CLOUD experiment","authors":"Jasper Kirkby, António Amorim, Urs Baltensperger, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Theodoros Christoudias, Joachim Curtius, Neil M. Donahue, Imad El Haddad, Richard C. Flagan, Hamish Gordon, Armin Hansel, Hartwig Harder, Heikki Junninen, Markku Kulmala, Andreas Kürten, Ari Laaksonen, Katrianne Lehtipalo, Jos Lelieveld, Ottmar Möhler, Ilona Riipinen, Frank Stratmann, Antonio Tomé, Annele Virtanen, Rainer Volkamer, Paul M. Winkler, Douglas R. Worsnop","doi":"10.1038/s41561-023-01305-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41561-023-01305-0","url":null,"abstract":"Aerosol particles in the atmosphere profoundly influence public health and climate. Ultrafine particles enter the body through the lungs and can translocate to essentially all organs, and they represent a major yet poorly understood health risk. Human activities have considerably increased aerosols and cloudiness since preindustrial times, but they remain persistently uncertain and underrepresented in global climate models. Here we present a synthesis of the current understanding of atmospheric new particle formation derived from laboratory measurements at the CERN CLOUD chamber. Whereas the importance of sulfuric acid has long been recognized, condensable vapours such as highly oxygenated organics and iodine oxoacids also play key roles, together with stabilizers such as ammonia, amines and ions from galactic cosmic rays. We discuss how insights from CLOUD experiments are helping to interpret new particle formation in different atmospheric environments, and to provide a mechanistic foundation for air quality and climate models. The CLOUD experiment provides important insights into new particle formation in different atmospheric environments.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"16 11","pages":"948-957"},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2023-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71517090","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0