{"title":"Geological and Seismological Observations after 8 August 2019 Bozkurt (Turkey) Earthquake","authors":"E. Akyol, M. Hancer, A. Aydin","doi":"10.21467/abstracts.93.43","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21467/abstracts.93.43","url":null,"abstract":"Book DOI: 10.21467/abstracts.93 Tectonic settings. The study area is located on the inner SW Anatolia where is dominated by graben systems. It is on the Acigöl Graben and many other can be traced nearby like Civril-Baklan, Burdur Grabens (Figure 1). They are all in NW-SW direction and bounded by active fault line. These faults caused some remarkable earthquakes like Burdur (M=5.9) at 1971 and Dinar (M=6.1) at 1995.Acıgöl Graben is mainly in NW-SW direction but it turns to E-W at the west end. Maymundagi fault is also parallel to the graben and forms the northern boundary along 14 km than it continues towards Alikurt village in E-W direction along 17 km. Gemis fault bounds the graben in the south and its length is about 25 km. It reaches up to Gemis village and after it splits up several segments (1.5 km to 9 km) mainly in E-W direction. Seismological features. The region is very active in terms of seismicity. Bozkurt town is located on the Gemis Fault. Seismic activity of the area has been known for long time both from instrumental and historical records (AFAD, 2019). When the earthquake focal mechanism solutions are analyzed, BU stated that the fault forming the earthquake is a normal fault in the E-W direction, and AFAD suggests an approximately WNW-ESE direction with 440 dip angle to south that is Maymundagifault. However, the epicenter point of the fault is on the north of the Maymundagi fault. It means Maymundagi fault has not caused the earthquake. Slope directions and focal mechanism solutions of the both faults Gemis fault has produced the earthquake. Since the Gemis fault that forms the earthquake is inclined north, the epicenter point of the earthquake appears in the north, therefore in the Bozkurt region. In other words, the focal centers of the main earthquake and aftershocks are located in the northern region of the graben. The epicenter points are concentered on the northern part of graben around Bozkurt town as Gemis fault inclination is towards north. Conclusions. Bozkurt, Denizli located in the western part of Turkey, has been hit by an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.0 (M) on August 8, 2019. The earthquake has caused hundreds of aftershocks during six months. The ground motion has produced observable damage in a rather large area. Although the earthquake is moderate, its effects on the structures were serious. This paper presents the geological and seismological observations on the affected area. The epicentre of the main shock is on the Maymundagi that is a part of Gemis Fault segment in WNW-ESE direction. Although the epicentre is far away from many crowded towns on the plain, it has caused some seismic damages on the reinforced concrete (RC) and masonry structures. Some villages like Dutluca Armutalan and Mecidiye are close to epicentre and they showed less damage because of the stiff rock foundation compared to the ones on the alluvium.","PeriodicalId":176768,"journal":{"name":"Abstracts of The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium","volume":"70 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125667528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Astamirova, M. Taysumov, M. Umarov, Fatima Omarchadgieva
{"title":"Climate, Modern Glaciation and River Network of the Northern Part of the Central and Eastern Caucasus","authors":"M. Astamirova, M. Taysumov, M. Umarov, Fatima Omarchadgieva","doi":"10.21467/abstracts.93.52","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21467/abstracts.93.52","url":null,"abstract":"Book DOI: 10.21467/abstracts.93 on the slope of Mount Adalla-Shukhgelmeer, in the upper Tindinskaya (Kila) river at an altitude of 2927 m above sea level. The averaged data for 1981-2010 are given for this station. There are three high-altitude weather stations on the Elbrus massif – Cheget (3040 m above sea level), Garabashi glacier (2326), Terskol (2140). For these stations, information is provided for 2019, as well as data for the adjacent territory from the Klukhor pass station (2039 m above sea level). The tables show that in the highlands in the central part of the North Caucasus at an altitude of more than 3,000 m, the average annual temperature changes significantly (in the direction of decreasing) and the amount of precipitation increases compared to the downstream stations (2362 and 2140 m above sea level). In the eastern part of the North Caucasus at an altitude of about 3000 m above sea level. the average annual temperature is slightly lower than in the central part, but the annual rainfall is much higher. For comparison, below are the data on the highlands of Dagestan for 1967 (Himmelreich, 1967), which show that for almost a fifty-year period, the average annual temperature increased by 0.4° C, while the amount of precipitation remained the same. The averaged data on the main climatic indicators of the Alpine belt of the Caucasus, collected for the period 1966-1973, are as follows: the average annual temperature is 0.3° C, the average rainfall is 930 mm. The first parameter does not give a complete description of the thermal regime in the highlands, but it characterizes the thermal conditions in which there is alpine vegetation quite well (Grebenshchikov, 1974). These data are close in modern indicators for high-altitude weather stations in Cheget and Sulak-alpine. Most of the glaciers are located on the northern slope of the Central Caucasus (55%). In general, the Greater Caucasus is characterized by small glaciers with an area of up to 1.0 km2, but there are also large glaciers with an area of more than 20 km2, there are six of them, the largest of which is Bezengi (17.6 km in length). The largest center of glaciation in the Central Caucasus is Elbrus, the total area of its glaciers is 144 km2. The main types of glaciers of the Caucasus are caravan, hanging and valley. It has been established that over the past 200 years in the high mountains of the Greater Caucasus, the size of glaciation is decreasing, namely, the area of glaciers is decreasing, and, accordingly, their number is increasing, which is associated with the decay of large glaciers into small morphological forms. (Efremov, 1988) in connection with the emerging trend of climate warming. The rivers of the study area belong to the basin of the Caspian Sea, only in the western part of the upper Kuban and its tributaries belong to the basin of the Sea of Azov. All of them in the upper reaches are mountainous, flowing in narrow and deep valleys, but flowing relatively calml","PeriodicalId":176768,"journal":{"name":"Abstracts of The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium","volume":" 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132124572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Resilience of Above-ground Arctic Pipelines","authors":"A. Bushinskaya, S. Timashev","doi":"10.21467/abstracts.93.99","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21467/abstracts.93.99","url":null,"abstract":"The paper first introduces and describes the basic concepts of structural resilience on the example of the simplest structural element - a rod subjected to centrally applied tensile force. The very fact of the possibility of such a method of introducing fundamentally new concepts indicates that resilience is one of the intrinsic properties of mechanical systems, such as strength, durability, reliability, and can be described in quantitative terms. The novel method of structural resilience analysis used in the paper is based on two consecutive applications of the classical reliability apparatus to assessing the individual and ensemble-wise structural resilience of a physical object. First, an estimate is made of the system reliability, designed in accordance with current design standards, using the design values of loads/impacts. After that, the reliability of the same structure is examined when it falls into a beyond-the-design state. The second step analysis is nothing but testing the ability of the safety cushion, provided by the used design norms, to withstand forces that are beyond the design limits. This analysis clearly shows that resilience is conditioned by the design code used to create the system. A very conservative design code will provide the system with a large safety cushion, and with it, high resilience. A riskier code will provide the designed system with a smaller resilience. This situation can be vividly illustrated by the case of resilience analysis of pro-sportsmen: they use their capabilities to the extreme,","PeriodicalId":176768,"journal":{"name":"Abstracts of The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129543086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Infrastructurely Complex Territories and Intersystem Accidents: Classification from Resilience View Point","authors":"V. Lesnykh, T. Timofeeva","doi":"10.21467/abstracts.93.59","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21467/abstracts.93.59","url":null,"abstract":"Book DOI: 10.21467/abstracts.93 According to uprising of ISF in ICT classification characteristics are related to classification characteristics according to ICT structure and can be classified according to the type of infrastructure system in which the triggering event occurred. The following types can be distinguished: accidents caused by power system failure; accidents caused by failure in gas supply system; accidents caused by failure in transport system; accidents caused by failure in water supply system; accidents caused by failure in communication system; accidents caused by failure in several systems at the same time. By the scale of accident in ICT (number of systems involved in ISF) it is possible to distinguish: distributed ISF failures occurred in 2-3 systems; macro-distributed ISF failures occurred in 4-6 systems; megadistributed ISF failures occurred in more than 6 systems. According to the level of economic consequences, intersystem accidents in ICT can be divided into: microeconomic consequences of ISF appear at the level of individual organizations; macroeconomic consequences of ISF appear at the level of totality of organizations of several branches of economy or spheres of business; mesoeconomic consequences of ISF appear at the level of individual branches of economy; megaeconomic consequences of ISF are linked to national economy, several states or sectors of world economy. According to scale of social consequences, we will mark: local accidents consequences affected groups of people; regional accidents suffered communities of people in certain territories (area, region); interregional accidents consequences are felt at national and intercountry levels. If hazardous production facilities located in ICT are present in intersystem accidents, it is advisable to carry out classification according to nature of hazardous factors: ISF with forming chemically hazards; ISF with forming fire and explosive factors; ISF with forming biologically hazardous factors; ISF with forming hydrodynamically hazards; ISF with complex appearing of hazards. Analysis of happened ISF, as well as qualitative analysis of possible topologies of ISF development scenarios in ICT, allowed the authors to propose the following classification of ISF structure in work [6]: accidents with absence of branching; accidents with branching in systems; accidents with branching between systems; accidents with branching in and between systems. The necessity for carried out analysis and classification is connected with variety of ISF and need to choose methodological and model approaches to assessment of level resilience of ICT. Acknowledgement: The abstracts were prepared with the support of the RFBR grant project \"Development of theoretical foundations and practical methods for analyzing, predicting and evaluating security in intersystem interactions of critical infrastructures in urbanized areas\" No. 20-010-00812A.","PeriodicalId":176768,"journal":{"name":"Abstracts of The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128813003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Methods and Models for Risk Analysis of External Unlawful Acts at Oil and Gas Facilities","authors":"V. Lesnykh, A. Bochkov","doi":"10.21467/abstracts.93.103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21467/abstracts.93.103","url":null,"abstract":"Book DOI: 10.21467/abstracts.93 actions against sea mobile surface object including actions concerning tankers for transportation of liquid hydrocarbons; actions against sea stationary subsea object, including actions concerning subsea production complexes, underwater sea transfer and off-shore pipelines; actions against shore stationary object located at shoreline – shore-based terminals. At the same time, it is clear that to organize effective diversion in a surface part of sea object or the object located in offshore zone, is extremely difficult. The operation can be easily disclosed at a preparation stage. Besides, a damage from underwater diversion is order of magnitude greater than a damage from actions of diversionary group in a surface part of sea objects. A combination of secrecy of carrying out of underwater diversion with consequences (i.e. productivity) from its carrying out isn't comparable with any of other possible kinds of attack on sea objects. The complex of organizational arrangements providing set level of sea objects safety, should be developed at a stage of design assignment preparation and at preliminary design and should provide timely detection and absolute suppression of any unauthorized activity that is provided, in turn, with efficiency and resoluteness of sea objects safety system management. Generally, classification of objects of arrangement by degree of risk of illegal actions is carried out with account of [1-3]: results of classification by size of potential danger (cumulative damage from damage (destruction) of objects and their vulnerability to illegal actions; structure of classified object; probability of success of infringers at carrying out of diversions concerning object; threat level in region of object placing; preference of the given object for fulfillment diversions against it. Classifications of objects by degree of risk of illegal actions allows establishing: priority of objects protection; objects of protection which are subject to primary protection. Objects of protection of the first class on degree of external illegal actions risk need primary protection. The object class on probable consequences (risk) of terrorist actions is established by means of criteria of scale of probable consequences (risk) of terrorist actions concerning objects of protection. As a criterion parameter, standardized value of probable consequences (risk) of terrorist actions is used for which estimation the following things are necessary: the data of hierarchical classification of objects of protection; object classes on potential danger and terrorist vulnerability and model of infringer. The value of negligible level of terrorist risk is defined from a condition of sufficiency of led arrangements on protection of objects depending, in its turn, from objects classes on potential danger. As a result, purposes are differed according to their importance for infringer, depending on effect from fulfillment of illegal action re","PeriodicalId":176768,"journal":{"name":"Abstracts of The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium","volume":"71 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116965982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Prediction of Insulation Resistance of Mining Electrical Equipment as a Method of Increasing its Safe Operation","authors":"D. Shprekher, G. I. Babokin, E. Kolesnikov","doi":"10.21467/abstracts.93.74","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21467/abstracts.93.74","url":null,"abstract":"Ensuring the safe operation of electrical equipment in networks with isolated neutral during underground mining of coal mines achieved by the use of protection devices against leakage currents in underground power supply systems. Leakage protection devices (relays) monitor the insulation resistance of the mine electrical networks and initiate a fairly quick disconnection of the power receivers or part of the network from the voltage source when a person touches one phase, an electric network element or an electrical installation case, if this happened due to mechanical damage or a decrease in the resistance level isolation below the critical (set) value. The value of the insulation resistance of the elements of the electrical network changes during operation depending on the operating modes of the mechanisms (vibration, load), environmental parameters (temperature, humidity, aggressive fumes, coal dust). The approach of the value of insulation resistance to the value specified by the condition for the safety of maintenance personnel occurs at different speeds, and with a rapid change in insulation resistance, the operation of the protective device can occur with delay and go beyond the limits stipulated by the regulations. In this case, the touch of a person to an element that is energized leads to increased danger to him. It is possible to increase the safety of work and the efficiency of the operation of mining equipment by using a system for monitoring and predicting","PeriodicalId":176768,"journal":{"name":"Abstracts of The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116990063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Territorial Potential Risk as a Comprehensive Fire Safety Indicator","authors":"A. Ryzhenko","doi":"10.21467/abstracts.93.72","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21467/abstracts.93.72","url":null,"abstract":"Book DOI: 10.21467/abstracts.93 the same time possible conflicts of strong differences defining artificial peak of partially smooth surface are eliminated). As mentioned earlier. The developed model is use to form passports of territories of subjects of the Russian Federation when assessing complex fire risk indicators. The sequence of using the model functionality to add a map-bound risk field is as follows: map zone of influence is defined: residential (red), industrial (yellow) and eco (green) zones are identified; a uniform grid is applied with zero matrix indicators of heights indicators of potential-territorial risk; objects are identified probabilistic sources of potential accidents, indicated on the terrain map, ambient space is detailed; fault scenario trees are generated for each object, indicators are applied for each branch, all possible scenarios are considered, from the most frequent (according to statistics) to the scenario with the worst consequences; for each scenario, a mathematical model of consequences is built, linear graphs of dependence of the damage factor on distance are built, individual risks are calculated to the maximum value with zero damage index; risk indicators are transferred to the social risk matrix; Map-bound scenarios are synthesized for the worst-case variant, BLEAVE (influence of neighboring objects), new extended-type scenario trees are formed; the obtained risk indicators are transferred to the cells of the potential-territorial risk matrix a height map (affine coordinate system) is formed; using a shadow mask, the height matrix is converted into a risk field, superimposed on a cartographic basis (non-uniform grid based on isolines). The received field is quite dynamic. Since you have built in a date-based source data key figure change system, you can track the sequence in which risk key figures are convert at each node or cell in the matrix. The effect of multi-texturing on the three-dimensional surface allows to superimpose the zones of damage of scenarios and the zones of risk of damage simultaneously in the same color range, which in commandstaff exercises helps to justify decisions, as well as to predict possible consequences at the early stages of emergency development or fires. Now, scenarios of border territories are also being worked out, in which the target trees are four, and the intersections between development scenarios are controlled by a separate independent interpreter, which allows to cut off duplication of activities of the attracted forces and funds of border States. Acknowledgements: The presented work is supported by the grant Russian Foundation for Fundamental Research, RFFR 18-07-00615 A \"Development and integration of methods of local and systematic search based on matrix representation of non-numerical dependencies to effectively solve problems of meeting restrictions in poorly formalized subject areas.\"","PeriodicalId":176768,"journal":{"name":"Abstracts of The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium","volume":"93 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132315811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Astamirova, A. Abdurzakova, R. Magomadova, S. Israilova, B. Khasueva, Kheda Khanaenva
{"title":"A Brief Analysis of the Soil Cover of the Upper Alpine Belt of the Northern Part of the Central and Eastern Caucasus","authors":"M. Astamirova, A. Abdurzakova, R. Magomadova, S. Israilova, B. Khasueva, Kheda Khanaenva","doi":"10.21467/abstracts.93.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21467/abstracts.93.12","url":null,"abstract":"Book DOI: 10.21467/abstracts.93 of soil formation on skeletal weathering crusts in high mountains are good drainage of the soil thickness, accompanied by a high surface runoff, which contributes to the removal of readily soluble soil formation products beyond the soil profile (Valkov et al., 2004). According to T.F. Urushadze (1989), the soil cover of the subnival belt, is represented by two varieties of soils: mountain meadow primitive with a profile characterized by the following composition: AC – CD – D under the complex of subnival microgroups, and mountain meadow soils, where the profile is compiled A1Ad – A1 –AB – CD under fragments of an alpine carpet. Mountain meadow primitive soils have a slightly acid reaction (pH 5.5-6.8), which tends to decrease with depth. The humus content is very small: in the upper horizon, 0.4–08%. According to the mechanical composition, the soils under consideration are loamy or light loamy. On the above-indicated relief forms and in depressions, mountain meadow soils of considerable thickness are formed under fragments of alpine carpets. It should be noted that the distribution of plant groups and their development are affected not only by air temperature and precipitation, but also by the microclimate of the soil environment, however, this problem remains unexplored. It is very characteristic that in the subnival strip there is no typical soil cover (Zakharov, 1931; Zonn, 1940). Here there are processes of intense physical and glacial-nival weathering, accumulation of eluvial-deluvial deposits, on which mountain meadow soils begin to develop. Thus, it is very characteristic that in the subnival strip a typical soil cover is absent (Zakharov, 1931; Zonn, 1940). Here there are processes of intense physical and glacial-nival weathering, accumulation of eluvialdeluvial deposits, on which mountain meadow soils begin to develop.","PeriodicalId":176768,"journal":{"name":"Abstracts of The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129151545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}