Territorial Potential Risk as a Comprehensive Fire Safety Indicator

Abstract

Book DOI: 10.21467/abstracts.93 the same time possible conflicts of strong differences defining artificial peak of partially smooth surface are eliminated). As mentioned earlier. The developed model is use to form passports of territories of subjects of the Russian Federation when assessing complex fire risk indicators. The sequence of using the model functionality to add a map-bound risk field is as follows: map zone of influence is defined: residential (red), industrial (yellow) and eco (green) zones are identified; a uniform grid is applied with zero matrix indicators of heights indicators of potential-territorial risk; objects are identified probabilistic sources of potential accidents, indicated on the terrain map, ambient space is detailed; fault scenario trees are generated for each object, indicators are applied for each branch, all possible scenarios are considered, from the most frequent (according to statistics) to the scenario with the worst consequences; for each scenario, a mathematical model of consequences is built, linear graphs of dependence of the damage factor on distance are built, individual risks are calculated to the maximum value with zero damage index; risk indicators are transferred to the social risk matrix; Map-bound scenarios are synthesized for the worst-case variant, BLEAVE (influence of neighboring objects), new extended-type scenario trees are formed; the obtained risk indicators are transferred to the cells of the potential-territorial risk matrix a height map (affine coordinate system) is formed; using a shadow mask, the height matrix is converted into a risk field, superimposed on a cartographic basis (non-uniform grid based on isolines). The received field is quite dynamic. Since you have built in a date-based source data key figure change system, you can track the sequence in which risk key figures are convert at each node or cell in the matrix. The effect of multi-texturing on the three-dimensional surface allows to superimpose the zones of damage of scenarios and the zones of risk of damage simultaneously in the same color range, which in commandstaff exercises helps to justify decisions, as well as to predict possible consequences at the early stages of emergency development or fires. Now, scenarios of border territories are also being worked out, in which the target trees are four, and the intersections between development scenarios are controlled by a separate independent interpreter, which allows to cut off duplication of activities of the attracted forces and funds of border States. Acknowledgements: The presented work is supported by the grant Russian Foundation for Fundamental Research, RFFR 18-07-00615 A "Development and integration of methods of local and systematic search based on matrix representation of non-numerical dependencies to effectively solve problems of meeting restrictions in poorly formalized subject areas."