Methods and Models for Risk Analysis of External Unlawful Acts at Oil and Gas Facilities

Book DOI: 10.21467/abstracts.93 actions against sea mobile surface object including actions concerning tankers for transportation of liquid hydrocarbons; actions against sea stationary subsea object, including actions concerning subsea production complexes, underwater sea transfer and off-shore pipelines; actions against shore stationary object located at shoreline – shore-based terminals. At the same time, it is clear that to organize effective diversion in a surface part of sea object or the object located in offshore zone, is extremely difficult. The operation can be easily disclosed at a preparation stage. Besides, a damage from underwater diversion is order of magnitude greater than a damage from actions of diversionary group in a surface part of sea objects. A combination of secrecy of carrying out of underwater diversion with consequences (i.e. productivity) from its carrying out isn't comparable with any of other possible kinds of attack on sea objects. The complex of organizational arrangements providing set level of sea objects safety, should be developed at a stage of design assignment preparation and at preliminary design and should provide timely detection and absolute suppression of any unauthorized activity that is provided, in turn, with efficiency and resoluteness of sea objects safety system management. Generally, classification of objects of arrangement by degree of risk of illegal actions is carried out with account of [1-3]: results of classification by size of potential danger (cumulative damage from damage (destruction) of objects and their vulnerability to illegal actions; structure of classified object; probability of success of infringers at carrying out of diversions concerning object; threat level in region of object placing; preference of the given object for fulfillment diversions against it. Classifications of objects by degree of risk of illegal actions allows establishing: priority of objects protection; objects of protection which are subject to primary protection. Objects of protection of the first class on degree of external illegal actions risk need primary protection. The object class on probable consequences (risk) of terrorist actions is established by means of criteria of scale of probable consequences (risk) of terrorist actions concerning objects of protection. As a criterion parameter, standardized value of probable consequences (risk) of terrorist actions is used for which estimation the following things are necessary: the data of hierarchical classification of objects of protection; object classes on potential danger and terrorist vulnerability and model of infringer. The value of negligible level of terrorist risk is defined from a condition of sufficiency of led arrangements on protection of objects depending, in its turn, from objects classes on potential danger. As a result, purposes are differed according to their importance for infringer, depending on effect from fulfillment of illegal action reached on his assumptions.