Abstracts of The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium最新文献

{"title":"Well Construction Technologies for Prediction of Complications and Risk Mitigation","authors":"G. Ya, A. Oganov, V. Sledkov","doi":"10.21467/abstracts.93.89","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21467/abstracts.93.89","url":null,"abstract":"Managed Pressure drilling (MPD). Drilling-related issues such as excessive mud cost, differentially stuck pipe and resulting well control situations associated with loss circulation issues contributed to define the necessity for a more efficient drilling technology. Drilling into narrow downhole pressure environments with the kick-loss scenario opportunities is another issue to be resolved. Drilling-related flat time further indicate a necessity for a technology that enables better management of downhole pressure. A conventional mud returns system is an open-to-the atmosphere system where returns mud flow away from the rig floor. The essence of MPD technology is the ability to drill ahead with closed and pressurizable mud returns. The Rotating Control Device (RCD) diverts pressurized mud returns to the choke manifold and its bearing and drill string seal assembly permits drilling ahead, tripping, etc. A primary objective of MPD is to address a long list of drilling-related problems or barriers to economic well construction. The contrast between conventional well control and well control in a closed loop system (CLD) is expressed with the help of a bow tie diagrams. In conventional well control, the operator attempts to identify, and design a well for these conditions considering casing, fluids, drilling practices, borehole cleaning parameters. Failure of these plans can lead to a well control event such as an influx. In a conventional circulating system that is open to the atmosphere, the options to prevent the consequence of the influx—a blowout are limited to mud remedies or closing the BOP.A CLD system adds new layers of options to both the prevention and mitigation sides of the diagram (Fig. 1). To prevent an influx, CLD adds real-time data for early event detection and identification. Annular pressure control provides a means of proactively managing pressure variations to prevent them from developing into a well control event. Continually monitoring and capturing data also provides feedback for updating pore pressure predictions and modeling future well designs practically online. Fig. 1 Causes and consequences of an influx in the closed loop system The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium 166","PeriodicalId":176768,"journal":{"name":"Abstracts of The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium","volume":"126 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122754658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Transport of Saharan Dust Over Mediterranean Basin - Ecological and Health Risks","authors":"Palma Orlović-Leko, I. Ciglenečki, M. D. Sikirić, S. Mateša","doi":"10.21467/abstracts.93.63","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21467/abstracts.93.63","url":null,"abstract":"The Mediterranean area is recognized as one of the main climate change hotspots and one of the most susceptible world regions. This region is characterized by complex mixing of anthropogenic pollutants from industries and large urban areas with aerosols from various natural sources (dust from the Sahara, sea salt and forest fires). Saharan dust (SD) is one of the major component of atmospheric aerosols over the Mediterranean Basin and is an active component of the climate system. Generally, atmospheric particulate matter (PM) constitutes one of the most challenging problems both for air quality and for climate change policies. Aerosols influence heat balance of the Earth, directly by reflecting and absorbing solar radiation and indirectly through altering the cloud microphysics. On the other hand, they influence human health by inducing adverse respiratory effects. In the Mediterranean countries, SD outbreaks contribute to high concentrations of PM 10 fraction (particles with aerodynamic diameter > 10 µm) that often exceed the limit set by the EU Air Quality Directive. This PM can be a serious irritant and pose a major health hazard. Additionally, the extreme dust transport events may modify the radiative budget of Mediterranean basin and the basin biogeochemical cycle as well.","PeriodicalId":176768,"journal":{"name":"Abstracts of The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122792232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Block Collapse Risk Management","authors":"Kamchibek Kozhogulov, O. Nikolskaya","doi":"10.21467/abstracts.93.15","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21467/abstracts.93.15","url":null,"abstract":"Book DOI: 10.21467/abstracts.93 1-in the specimen С = 6 MPa 2-rock grip in the specimen С = 5,12MPa 3-rock grip in the specimen С = 4 MPa Figure. Change in adhesion in the dash array of the open pit, depending on the ratio of the pit side height h to the linear dimensions of the elementary block l. An equally important factor in managing the risks of collapse during the development of deposits by an upland quarry in a block massif is the parameters of drilling and blasting operations and the speed of movement of the face. In the off-site massif of the upland quarry during blasting operations, it is necessary to carry out blasting with preliminary slitting. In order to reduce the seismic effect on the array, the deceleration interval should be assigned in a series of charges for preliminary gap formation. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 roc k gr ip in to m acc iv M Pa","PeriodicalId":176768,"journal":{"name":"Abstracts of The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium","volume":"60 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115272805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Criteria for the Environment Assessment After Oil and Gas Exploration in the Arctic","authors":"A. Edelev, N. Yurkevich, N. Yurkevich, O. Saeva","doi":"10.21467/abstracts.93.94","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21467/abstracts.93.94","url":null,"abstract":"The paper reviews the impact of anthropogenic activities in the Arctic. An oil and gas field was selected as the object of study, on which only exploration drilling was carried out 30 years ago. Samples of soils, water and bottom sediments from surface water bodies were taken. An analysis of their composition was carried out in situ and in the laboratory.","PeriodicalId":176768,"journal":{"name":"Abstracts of The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115923792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Activities of the Russian Academy of Science's Council Concerning the Kyoto Protocol and Discussions Around Climate Change","authors":"A. Sobisevich","doi":"10.21467/abstracts.93.41","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21467/abstracts.93.41","url":null,"abstract":"Book DOI: 10.21467/abstracts.93 atmosphere made it possible to increase the yields of major crops and feed an additional 1 billion people, but this fact was outweighed by the negative aspects of anthropogenic warming. Andrei Illarionov, who was present at the meeting, raised the question of the connection between the rate of carbon dioxide emissions and the rate of economic growth. He expressed the opinion that since human civilization is based on the consumption of hydrocarbons, the adoption of the Kyoto agreements could have a negative impact on Russian economy. He regarded the Kyoto agreement as discriminatory and not universal, since the main sources of carbon dioxide emissions like the USA, China, India, Brazil, Mexico and Korea, as well as a number of developing countries, did not impose any restrictions on themselves. According to Andrei Illarionov, scientists should answer the main question: to what extent is the Kyoto Protocol justified and whether it should be ratified, and if not ratify, then what other global problems should be brought to the attention of the world community? On May 17, 2004, President of the Russian Academy of Sciences Yury Osipov outlined his position on the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol by Vladimir Putin. Yury Osipov noted that during the discussion, scientists had the opinion that the Kyoto Protocol does not have a scientific basis and is not effective for achieving the final goal of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. If Russia would ratify the Kyoto Protocol, then it would be impossible for its economy to double the GDP. In 2012, the seminar participants again came to a negative conclusion about Russia's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. According to the scientists, achieving the objectives of the protocol would require reducing the emission of greenhouse gases over large limits and over the centuries, not decades. The development of renewable energy and the use of biofuels also could not give a tangible effect. Yuri Izrael proposed to influence the climate by removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and introducing an additional amount of aerosols into the stratosphere. The reasons for such a negative attitude of scientists towards the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol and their scientific discussion during the discussion are in the focus of my research.","PeriodicalId":176768,"journal":{"name":"Abstracts of The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115143562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increasing the Safety of Tank Battery Operation by the Introduction of an Automated System for Monitoring Leakages and Leak Detection","authors":"Andrey Balenkov, A. Mashkova, M. Teregulov, L. Zemlerub","doi":"10.21467/abstracts.93.92","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21467/abstracts.93.92","url":null,"abstract":"Book DOI: 10.21467/abstracts.93 of the least safe and unreliable elements (facilities). Exactly at the stage of accident occurrence, i.e. before destruction or depressurization of technological system elements, timely taken measures and qualified actions of service personnel are really capable to localize the accident without undesirable consequences. At each subsequent stage of accident development, the efficiency of actions of the maintenance personnel on its localization decreases and the range of possible undesirable consequences expands. The most dangerous accidents in terms of the volume of material damage is a fire with depressurization of the full 10000 m3 tank: the mass of oil spill may reach 6880.7 tons, the amount of damage from the accident will be 328762 thousand rubles; the probability of implementing this scenario 2.40·10-5 1/year. The most dangerous accident on social losses is a fire-flash with full depressurization of the tank: the radius of the influence zone of high-temperature combustion products is up to 283.86 m, the value of damage from the accident will make 337355 thousand rubles; the probability of realization of this scenario is 9.22·10-61/year. Therefore, in order to ensure the safety of the facility it is necessary to carry out an assessment of fire risk and, in particular, an assessment of individual risk of the personnel servicing the TB[1]. Individual risk to site workers is a probability of death as a result of exposure to the hazards of a fire or explosion. The probability of the presence of a person at a given location is taken into account. This distribution can be obtained from equipment maintenance and bypass schedules, etc. Thus, the area located near each tank is characterized by a staff presence time of 20 minutes per week (0.048 h). Based on data on potential fire risk and the probability of human presence, the individual fire risk for personnel is calculated. [2] If the resulting accident is detected in a timely manner adequate measures can be taken to localize the accident and take people who are not involved in its liquidation from the zone of possible damage. There are a number of wall structures at the facilities that limit the drift of oil and oil products vapors (tank batteries dykes). In order to develop measures aimed at reducing human losses, material and environmental damage, it is necessary to forecast possible emergency situations. As solutions to minimize the development of hazardous situations caused by the violation of the VST operation technology or partial/complete destruction of the tank with the spillage of the product, it is proposed to equip all VST with ASRLD, the complex of which in the process of operation minimizes the time of service personnel presence in the potential risk zone. Thus, improvement of the existing automated system of TB with systems proposed in the work will reduce the personnel risk during the operation of TB by removing personnel from the risk zone, reducing t","PeriodicalId":176768,"journal":{"name":"Abstracts of The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115150608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Management of Development Risks for Regional Social-Natural-Technogenic System","authors":"O. Taseiko","doi":"10.21467/abstracts.93.14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21467/abstracts.93.14","url":null,"abstract":"Book DOI: 10.21467/abstracts.93 To date, individual risk assessments have been performed for the some components of the S-P-T system using the example of the Krasnoyarsk territory. An analysis of the accident risks and individual death risks as a result of anthropogenic emergencies made it possible to rank the regional municipalities (dangerous, borderline and safe territories) by the quantitative risk level. A methodology to assess the ecosphere risks is being developed based on a combination of classical methods of multivariate statistical analysis as applied to forest ecosystems. Materials of forest fire, phytopathological and other types of monitoring are used as initial data. To assess the socio sphere risks a quantitative analysis was performed for the influence of environmental factors such as air and drinking water pollution, specific climatic parameters on the population morbidity and mortality. For the first time estimates were made of the combined effect on the population mortality of air pollutant concentrations and climatic features, including heat and cold waves sudden changes in air temperature. Maps of the health risks caused by air and drinking water pollution, the risks of death in natural and anthropogenic emergency and the risks of dangerous events and incidents have been developed using GIS technology. At the same time, the assessment of the human morbidity and mortality in the interaction with the regional S-N-T system is significantly limited by the lack of knowledge regarding the impact risk objects in terms of consequences analysis. In addition, the existing models applying to natural, social and technological risks are not identical. These models do not allow to justify the standard requirements for data collecting and analysing, monitoring parameters and risk management. Thus, a methodology for forecasting risks is required depending on the technologies for collecting data, control, monitoring taken to counter risks. Acknowledgments. The reported study was funded by Russian Foundation for Basic Research, Government of Krasnoyarsk Territory, Krasnoyarsk Regional Fund of Science, to the research project: number 18-47-240006 «Methods and information technologies for risk assessment of the development of social-natural-technogenic systems in an industrial region».","PeriodicalId":176768,"journal":{"name":"Abstracts of The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium","volume":"73 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128364024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seismic Activity Investigation of Elazıg and Surroundings, Eastern Anatolia","authors":"G. Polat, A. Aydin, Fatma Figen Altinoğlu","doi":"10.21467/abstracts.93.68","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21467/abstracts.93.68","url":null,"abstract":"The frequency-magnitude distribution of the earthquakes occurred in the city of Elazig and surrounding area was analysed. This region is located in Eastern Anatolia and tectonically very active and has a high seismic hazard risk. A complete set of 1550 earthquakes of Md ≥ 1 from 1 January 2010 to 28 February 2019 was used. The spatial mapping of frequency-magnitude distribution was produced. Outstanding variations in the b-value were detected with b ≈ 1.3 and the region is not homogeneous.","PeriodicalId":176768,"journal":{"name":"Abstracts of The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134402507","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impact of Oil Industrial Operations on the Contamination of Soil Ecosystem by Harmful Chemicals","authors":"H. Khalilova, V. Mammadov","doi":"10.21467/abstracts.93.80","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21467/abstracts.93.80","url":null,"abstract":"Book DOI: 10.21467/abstracts.93 released into atmosphere as a result of fossil fuel burning spread to wide distances. The most dangerous for human helth PAHs – bezo(a) pyren is mainly found in exhaust gases. In atmosphere, PAHs form suspended particles that can spread to large territories and transform to other pollutants through photochemical reactions. Further, these pollutants return to the earth surface and accumulate in soils and bottom sediments of surface waters. As it was mentioned above, crude oil have certain amount of trace elements. From the ecological viewpoint, they are divided into two groups: toxic and non-toxic. Among them Si, Fe, Al, Mn, Ca, Mg and P are low toxic microelements. V, Ni, Co, Pb, Cu, As, Hg and Zn have negative impact on biocenosis at high concentrations. About 10-3 % toxic metals and halogens are found in the asphaltene-tar fraction of oils. Some of metals are in the form of salts of organic acids, and others in the form of chelat complexes. Produced water is most hazardous natural pollutant of the environment. They contain various ions, oil and dissolved gases, such as CO2 and H2S. Both the oil polluted rocks and produced water cause pollution of the ecosystem components, first of all soil cover. The rocks obtained from oil extraction may constitute of 1-5% even 10% hydrocarbons. Depending on the pollution level, they can form complex substances with Fe and Al ions and various soluble complexes thus leading to the depletion of important minerals in soil. Drilling solutions and drill cuttings are by volume the largest anthropogenic waste formed when exploring and development of oil fields. These discharges include water-oil emulsions, corrosion inhibitors, surface active agents, Ca (NO3)2, Mg (NO3)2, HCl, KCl, NaON, NH4ON, various polymers and mechanical mixtures, etc. Light fractions of hydrocarbons easily migrate to deeper sections of soil, and therefore, increased content of heavy asphaltene-tar fraction accumulate in the upper layers. The asphaltene-tar fraction of oil is toxic and difficult degradable. This fraction contain the most toxic environmental pollutants – heavy metals. Potential threat of heavy metals to ecosystem components, especially to human health, is associated with two factors: high toxic impact at low concentrations and bioaccumulation abilities. Many of them like Hg, Pb, Cd, Cr, Zn and Cu can be very toxic to the ecosystem. Heavy metals are mainly gathered in soils and bottom sediments. Concentrated in soils heavy metals can be adsorbed and accumulated in different parts of plants through root system. One of the major global problems of the present days – acid rains can wash heavy metals from soil rocks into lakes, rivers and bays. Most of heavy metals disrupt enzyme function forming bonds with sulfur groups in enzyme and may eventually kill living organisms. Due to their migration and accumulation in the environment, most heavy metals can easily enter the food chain and create serious thre","PeriodicalId":176768,"journal":{"name":"Abstracts of The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129246569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Algorithm of Improved Prediction from Existing Risk Predictions","authors":"Z. Gasitashvili, Merab Phkhovelishvili, N. Archvadze, N. Jorjiashvili","doi":"10.21467/abstracts.93.17","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21467/abstracts.93.17","url":null,"abstract":"© 2020 Copyright held by the author(s). Published by AIJR Publisher in “Abstracts of The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium” April 1219, 2020, Tbilisi, Georgia. Jointly organized by AMIR Technical Services LLC, Georgian Technical University, Institute of Geography (Kazakhstan) and Russian Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics. DOI: 10.21467/abstracts.93 Risk Analysis and Risk Management An Algorithm of Improved Prediction from Existing Risk Predictions","PeriodicalId":176768,"journal":{"name":"Abstracts of The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124283497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}