Management of Development Risks for Regional Social-Natural-Technogenic System

Book DOI: 10.21467/abstracts.93 To date, individual risk assessments have been performed for the some components of the S-P-T system using the example of the Krasnoyarsk territory. An analysis of the accident risks and individual death risks as a result of anthropogenic emergencies made it possible to rank the regional municipalities (dangerous, borderline and safe territories) by the quantitative risk level. A methodology to assess the ecosphere risks is being developed based on a combination of classical methods of multivariate statistical analysis as applied to forest ecosystems. Materials of forest fire, phytopathological and other types of monitoring are used as initial data. To assess the socio sphere risks a quantitative analysis was performed for the influence of environmental factors such as air and drinking water pollution, specific climatic parameters on the population morbidity and mortality. For the first time estimates were made of the combined effect on the population mortality of air pollutant concentrations and climatic features, including heat and cold waves sudden changes in air temperature. Maps of the health risks caused by air and drinking water pollution, the risks of death in natural and anthropogenic emergency and the risks of dangerous events and incidents have been developed using GIS technology. At the same time, the assessment of the human morbidity and mortality in the interaction with the regional S-N-T system is significantly limited by the lack of knowledge regarding the impact risk objects in terms of consequences analysis. In addition, the existing models applying to natural, social and technological risks are not identical. These models do not allow to justify the standard requirements for data collecting and analysing, monitoring parameters and risk management. Thus, a methodology for forecasting risks is required depending on the technologies for collecting data, control, monitoring taken to counter risks. Acknowledgments. The reported study was funded by Russian Foundation for Basic Research, Government of Krasnoyarsk Territory, Krasnoyarsk Regional Fund of Science, to the research project: number 18-47-240006 «Methods and information technologies for risk assessment of the development of social-natural-technogenic systems in an industrial region».