Global Change Biology最新文献

{"title":"Mammals on the Margins: Identifying the Drivers and Limitations of Range Expansion","authors":"Alex J. Jensen,&nbsp;Benjamin R. Goldstein,&nbsp;Michael V. Cove,&nbsp;Krishna Pacifici,&nbsp;Elizabeth Kierepka,&nbsp;Brigit Rooney,&nbsp;William McShea,&nbsp;Roland Kays","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70222","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70222","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Accurately estimating species distributions is critical for tracking how biodiversity is shaped by global change. While some species are expanding their ranges, the importance of factors like climate change, habitat change, and human avoidance for explaining this expansion is not well understood. Here, we used observations of 94 North American mammals on iNaturalist to (1) identify errors of omission in the existing range maps; (2) differentiate between extra-range populations that are likely products of natural expansions vs. introductions; and (3) test hypotheses about where natural range expansions occur. We found a substantial percentage of observations were outside both IUCN (16%) and Area of Habitat (36%) maps, suggesting that integrating contemporary citizen science data would improve existing range maps. We estimated that most observations outside IUCN ranges were natural expansions and 95% of species had at least one naturally expanding population. We also identified introductions for 36% of species, which were particularly extensive for several species. We show that natural range expansions are generally associated with a lighter human footprint and less habitat change and are not associated with warming temperatures. This suggests that habitat modifications by humans constrain the ability of species to expand their range to track a changing climate. We also found substantial variation in the directionality of effects from all factors across species, meaning that our species-specific findings will be useful for conservation planning. Our study demonstrates that citizen science data can be useful for conservation by tracking how organisms are responding, or failing to respond, to global change.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70222","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Harnessing Microbes to Weather Native Silicates in Agricultural Soils for Scalable Carbon Dioxide Removal","authors":"Tania Timmermann,&nbsp;Christopher Yip,&nbsp;Yun-Ya Yang,&nbsp;Kimberly A. Wemmer,&nbsp;Anupam Chowdhury,&nbsp;Daniel Dores,&nbsp;Taichi Takayama,&nbsp;Sharon Nademanee,&nbsp;Bjorn A. Traag,&nbsp;Kazem Zamanian,&nbsp;Bernardo González,&nbsp;Daniel O. Breecker,&nbsp;Noah Fierer,&nbsp;Eric W. Slessarev,&nbsp;Gonzalo A. Fuenzalida-Meriz","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70216","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70216","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Anthropogenic carbon emissions contribute significantly to the greenhouse effect, resulting in global warming and climate change. Thus, addressing this critical issue requires innovative and comprehensive solutions. Silicate weathering moderates atmospheric CO₂ levels over geological time, but it occurs too slowly to counteract anthropogenic emissions effectively. Here, we show that the microorganism <i>Bacillus subtilis</i> strain MP1 promotes silicate weathering across different experimental setups with various levels of complexity. First, we found that MP1 was able to form a robust biofilm in the presence of feldspar and significantly increased (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) silicate dissolution rates, pH, and calcium carbonate formation in culture experiments. Second, in mesocosm experiments, we found that MP1 enhanced the silicate weathering rate in soil by more than six times compared to the untreated control. In addition, soil inorganic carbon increased by 20%, and the concentrations of ions, including calcium, magnesium, and iron, were also elevated under the MP1 treatment. More importantly, when applied as a seed treatment on eight soybean fields, we found that MP1 significantly (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) boosted soil inorganic carbon, leading to a gross accrual of 2.02 tonnes of inorganic carbon per hectare annually. Our findings highlight the potential of enhancing native silicate weathering with microorganisms in agricultural fields to increase soil inorganic carbon, contributing to climate change mitigation.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70216","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143897039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Location-Scale Meta-Analysis and Meta-Regression as a Tool to Capture Large-Scale Changes in Biological and Methodological Heterogeneity: A Spotlight on Heteroscedasticity","authors":"Shinichi Nakagawa,&nbsp;Ayumi Mizuno,&nbsp;Kyle Morrison,&nbsp;Lorenzo Ricolfi,&nbsp;Coralie Williams,&nbsp;Szymon M. Drobniak,&nbsp;Malgorzata Lagisz,&nbsp;Yefeng Yang","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70204","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70204","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Heterogeneity is a defining feature of ecological and evolutionary meta-analyses. While conventional meta-analysis and meta-regression methods acknowledge heterogeneity in effect sizes, they typically assume this heterogeneity is constant across studies and levels of moderators (i.e., homoscedasticity). This assumption could mask potentially informative patterns in the data. Here, we introduce and develop a location-scale meta-analysis and meta-regression framework that models both the mean (location) and variance (scale) of effect sizes. Such a framework explicitly accommodates heteroscedasticity (differences in variance), thereby revealing when and why heterogeneity itself changes. This capability, we argue, is crucial for understanding responses to global environmental change, where complex, context-dependent processes may shape both the average magnitude and the variability of biological responses. For example, differences in study design, measurement protocols, environmental factors, or even evolutionary history can lead to systematic shifts in variance. By incorporating hierarchical (multilevel) structures and phylogenetic relationships, location-scale models can disentangle the contributions from different levels to both location and scale parts. We further attempt to extend the concepts of relative heterogeneity and publication bias into the scale part of meta-regression. With these methodological advances, we can identify patterns and processes that remain obscured under the constant variance assumption, thereby enhancing the biological interpretability and practical relevance of meta-analytic results. Notably, almost all published ecological and evolutionary meta-analytic data can be re-analysed using our proposed analytic framework to gain new insights. Altogether, location-scale meta-analysis and meta-regression provide a rich and holistic lens through which to view and interpret the intricate tapestry woven with ecological and evolutionary data. The proposed approach, thus, ultimately leads to more informed and context-specific conclusions about environmental changes and their impacts.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70204","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143897038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The End of an Era? Trends in Abundance and Reproduction of Australian Southern Right Whales (Eubalaena australis) Suggest Failure to Re-Establish Pre-Whaling Population Size","authors":"Anne Grundlehner,&nbsp;Joshua N. Smith,&nbsp;John L. Bannister,&nbsp;Virginia Andrews-Goff,&nbsp;Madeleine Brasier,&nbsp;Micheal C. Double,&nbsp;Stuart P. Corney","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70218","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70218","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The large-scale exploitation of whale populations in the whaling era led to the near extirpation of large whales all over the world. This must have had major repercussions for marine ecosystems globally. Consequent changes to those ecosystems and physical environments create uncertainty around whether present-day conditions are adequate to support full recovery of pre-whaling population sizes. Combined with potential effects of anthropogenic stressors, the future viability of exploited whale populations is questioned. This migrating species was left near extinction from whaling and has shown slow, yet steady, recovery in recent decades. Here, we collate abundance data from aerial surveys performed along the Australian coast between 1976 and 2024, covering 2250 km of coastal habitat, to study the recovery trajectory of Australian southern right whales (<i>Eubalaena australis</i>). We describe temporal trends in abundance, reproduction and growth of the western sub-population. Our study reveals that despite previously displaying exponential growth, and a present population size still residing far below pre-whaling levels, our annual births have started declining since 2016 and annual abundances of unaccompanied individuals have dropped by 66%. Our results suggest the end of an era of this population's recovery, highlighting that an initial period of steady recovery does not guarantee successful re-establishment of previous abundance levels.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70218","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143889194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Physiological Traits for Predicting Poleward Extensions in Tropical Fishes: From Lab to Management","authors":"Adam T. Downie,&nbsp;Curtis Champion,&nbsp;David J. Booth","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70213","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70213","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tropicalization, the phenomena by which tropical organisms are extending their distributions poleward into temperate latitudes in response to increasing temperatures and strengthening boundary currents, is occurring globally. Vagrant tropical species have large ecological and economic ramifications for the temperate habitats they invade. However, not all vagrants are able to persist long term in temperate habitats, with the first winter being a potential bottleneck for their persistence. This brings into question how some tropical vagrant species are successful at surviving temperate conditions and the physiology underpinning this success. This provides the opportunity to not only look at the available data introspectively but also forward-thinking by applying a range of holistic physiological traits relevant for biology and management. Therefore, the aim of our review is twofold: to review the current state-of-knowledge of the physiological mechanisms underpinning tropicalization and to develop a physiological framework by which current practices can complement new perspectives and tools. We use range-expanding tropical reef fishes as a model group of over 100 species undergoing climate-driven range shifts and eastern Australia as a case-study location due to it being a primary focal “living laboratory” for understanding tropicalization dynamics since the early 2000s. Current studies suggest that diet, behavior, and metabolic trade-offs may explain vagrant fish persistence, but these studies focus on whole-animal traits. Our framework helps expand upon focal traits, life stages, experimental design, physiological traits (e.g., we highlight the value of genetic and cellular markers for metabolic pathway changes under cold stress as potential biomarkers) and species to improve our understanding of the mechanisms underpinning tropicalization. Taken together, our framework places emphasis on measuring a suite of complimentary physiological traits, from cellular to whole-animal, to help guide future predictions of the long-term persistence of tropical species in temperate habitats.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70213","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143879775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Warming Disrupts Plant–Fungal Endophyte Symbiosis More Severely in Leaves Than Roots","authors":"Joseph D. Edwards,&nbsp;Melanie R. Kazenel,&nbsp;Yiqi Luo,&nbsp;Joshua S. Lynn,&nbsp;Rebecca L. McCulley,&nbsp;Lara Souza,&nbsp;Carolyn Young,&nbsp;Jennifer A. Rudgers,&nbsp;Stephanie N. Kivlin","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70207","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70207","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Disruptions to functionally important symbionts with global change will negatively impact plant fitness, with broader consequences for species' abundances, distribution, and community composition. Fungal endophytes that live inside plant leaves and roots could potentially mitigate plant heat stress from global warming. Conversely, disruptions of these symbioses could exacerbate the negative impacts of warming. To better understand the consistency and strength of warming-induced changes to fungal endophytes, we examined fungal leaf and root endophytes in three grassland warming experiments in the US ranging from 2 to 25 years and spanning 2000 km, 12°C of mean annual temperature, and 600 mm of precipitation. We found that experimental warming disrupted symbiosis between plants and fungal endophytes. Colonization of plant tissues by septate fungi decreased in response to warming by 90% in plant leaves and 35% in roots. Warming also reduced fungal diversity and changed community composition in plant leaves, but not roots. The strength, but not direction, of warming effects on fungal endophytes varied by up to 75% among warming experiments. Finally, warming decoupled fungal endophytes from host metabolism by decreasing the correlation between endophyte community and host metabolome dissimilarity. These effects were strongest in the shorter-term experiment, suggesting endophyte-host metabolome function may acclimate to warming over decades. Overall, warming-driven disruption of fungal endophyte community structure and function suggests that this symbiosis may not be a reliable mechanism to promote plant resilience and ameliorate stress responses under global change.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143875676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Could Elevated CO2 Lead to Over-Application of Phosphate Fertilizer to Pastures? Implications for P-Limited Ecosystem Responses to eCO2","authors":"Gareth K. Phoenix,&nbsp;Christopher R. Taylor","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70206","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70206","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;In a recent issue of &lt;i&gt;Global Change Biology&lt;/i&gt;, Beechey-Gradwell et al. (&lt;span&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;) provide compelling evidence of an elevated CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; (eCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;)-driven reduction in the efficacy of phosphorus (P) fertilisation of a grassland agroecosystem. Intriguingly, the work also suggests an eCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; stimulation of compensatory mechanisms that allow maintenance of plant P nutrition despite the reduction of plant available P in soil. The authors argue that these findings necessitate a reassessment of whether agricultural nutrient availability tests will be fit for purpose in a high CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; future, and suggest a recalibration of such measurements. Furthermore, the findings of Beechey-Gradwell et al. (&lt;span&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;) have parallels with recent eCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; studies on P-limited ecosystems (e.g., Keane et al. &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;; Jian et al. 2024) that suggest eCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; reduces plant-available P, likely through stimulation of microbial immobilisation of P, with consequences for ecosystem productivity and its feedback to climate regulation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;As atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; concentrations rise, the stimulation of greater rates of photosynthesis in plants can increase plant productivity and, consequently, increase ecosystem absorption of CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;. Understanding this “CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; fertilization effect” is critical for us to determine how agricultural and natural ecosystems will respond to rising CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;, and to quantify how much the increased sequestration of C can help slow the rise of atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; and global warming.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;A key constraint to the CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; fertilization effect on plant productivity is the availability of nutrients in soil (Terrer et al. &lt;span&gt;2019&lt;/span&gt;). In the case of agricultural systems that are (co-)limited by soil P availability, phosphate fertilizer may be needed to realize the CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; fertilization benefit. In contrast, should eCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; stimulate immobilization of P in soil, this may limit the effectiveness of the P fertilizer, meaning eCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; could create the need for more fertilizer addition along with the associated costs to farmers and increased environmental risk. The need to understand the interaction between eCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; and P fertilizer application is therefore clear, and this need is heightened given the globally depleting and finite resource of P for use in fertilizers.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;To address this, Beechey-Gradwell et al. (&lt;span&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;) investigated P fertilizer and eCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; effects on a species-rich pasture in New Zealand. The experiment used the approach of Free-Air-CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;-Enrichment (FACE) where a network of pipes delivers a high CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; environment outside on the pasture ecosystem, providing the benefit of realism. In this case, the added benefit of FACE was that it allowed the pasture to be grazed by sheep as it would in real-world conditions; this being essential for this study given their in","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70206","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143875675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate Variability Modulates the Temporal Stability of Carbon Sequestration by Changing Multiple Facets of Biodiversity in Temperate Forests Across Scales","authors":"Jiahui Chen,&nbsp;Xuetao Qiao,&nbsp;Minhui Hao,&nbsp;Chunyu Fan,&nbsp;Juan Wang,&nbsp;Xiuhai Zhao,&nbsp;Chunyu Zhang","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70212","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70212","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Climate variability poses a significant threat to ecosystem function and stability. Previous studies suggest that multiple facets of biodiversity enhance the temporal stability of forest ecosystem functioning through compensatory effects. However, as climate change intensifies, two key questions remain unresolved: (1) the mechanisms by which different biodiversity facets sustain the temporal stability of carbon sequestration across spatial scales and (2) how climate variability influences biodiversity and stability at different scales. In this study, based on data from 262 natural communities in the temperate forests of northeastern China, we aggregated metacommunities at varying spatial extents. Using ordinary-least squares regression, we examined the relationships between different facets of biodiversity and the temporal stability of carbon sequestration (hereafter, “stability”) across scales. We then employed mixed-effects models to assess how multiple facets of biodiversity influence biotic stability mechanisms at different scales. Additionally, we applied piecewise structural equation modeling to disentangle the relationships among climate variability, multiple facets of biodiversity, and stability across scales. Our findings indicate that biodiversity facets (taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity) enhance ecosystem stability at multiple scales primarily through insurance effects. Temperature variability was negatively correlated with all biodiversity facets, and declines in biodiversity were associated with reduced ecosystem stability at different scales. Precipitation variability, in contrast, was negatively correlated with <i>α</i> diversity facets but positively correlated with <i>β</i> diversity facets. Unexpectedly, precipitation variability exhibited an overall positive correlation with stability across scales. These results suggest that increasing temperature variability may pose a greater threat to temperate forest ecosystems in the future. Thus, preserving multiple facets of biodiversity across spatial scales will be critical for mitigating the adverse effects of climate warming. Furthermore, the impact of precipitation variability cannot be overlooked in arid and semi-arid regions. Our study provides novel insights into biodiversity conservation under global climate change.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143875672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of Climate-Land Dynamics on Global Population and Sub-Populations of a Desert Equid","authors":"Azita Rezvani,&nbsp;Mahmoud-Reza Hemami,&nbsp;Saeid Pourmanafi,&nbsp;Sima Fakheran,&nbsp;Petra Kaczensky","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70190","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70190","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Climate change and escalating land-use transformations pose a significant threat to global biodiversity by disrupting natural habitats. The Asiatic wild ass (<i>Equus hemionus</i>), a near-threatened species, faces various pressures across its Asian range. This study employs a niche modeling approach to assess suitable habitats for the Asiatic wild ass at both the global population and sub-population levels. The analysis integrates the impacts of climate scenarios and land use change across three temporal periods: past, present, and future. To investigate the uncertainty of climate models for the Asiatic wild ass habitat, we used two climate models, CMIP5 and CMIP6, at both global and sub-population levels. Niche overlap models were developed to examine patterns of niche similarity among sub-populations. The results demonstrate a severe decline in both suitable habitat area and the number of viable patches for all sub-populations. Projections reveal that the Mongolian wild ass and Indian wild ass endure the highest levels of isolation and habitat loss, alongside the extinct Syrian wild ass. Sub-population models often predict larger distributions compared to global population models using the same inputs. The outputs of the models indicate a severe decline in suitable habitat, underscoring the necessity of accounting for both ecological and conservation perspectives to understand species distribution dynamics. Our study highlights the need to consider both global population and sub-population levels in climate change assessments. These models provide essential guidance for conservation strategies by identifying suitable habitats and sites for reintroduction. Identifying habitat patches as refuges for large herbivores amidst land-use changes and climate fluctuations is crucial. Incorporating these patches into conservation planning is imperative for preserving biodiversity.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143875673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Geographical and Environmental Factors Differentially Shape Planktonic Microbial Community Assembly and Resistomes Composition in Urban Rivers","authors":"Xin Liao,&nbsp;Hongjie Wang,&nbsp;Dong Wu,&nbsp;Hans-Peter Grossart,&nbsp;Xiaoyong Yang,&nbsp;Laiyi Li,&nbsp;Yuwen Wang,&nbsp;Shuang Li,&nbsp;Jiangwei Li,&nbsp;Meixian Cao,&nbsp;Nengwang Chen,&nbsp;Anyi Hu","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70211","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70211","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Global urbanization accelerates pollution challenges in urban rivers, including increased transmission of bacterial antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs), severely threatening the health of aquatic ecosystems and human health. Yet, systematic knowledge of differences in distribution and community assembly patterns of bacterial resistance across urban rivers at a continental scale is still insufficient. In this study, we conducted extensive sampling in nine representative urban rivers across China. We used amplicon and shotgun metagenomic sequencing, state-of-the-art bioinformatics, and multivariate statistics to investigate distribution patterns and community assembly mechanisms of planktonic microbiomes (i.e., bacterioplankton and planktonic microeukaryotes), including their resistomes, i.e., ARGs and metal resistance genes (MRGs). Geographical and environmental factors played a pivotal role in shaping distribution patterns of planktonic microbiomes vs. resistomes in the studied urban rivers. Phylogenetic-bin-based null model analysis (iCAMP) indicated that planktonic microbiomes, dominated by dispersal limitation and drift, tend toward spatial heterogeneity. In contrast, planktonic resistomes, driven by deterministic processes, display more similar distribution patterns. Cross-validated Mantel tests revealed that geographical factors (i.e., geographic distance) were the primary regulators of planktonic microbial community assembly, while environmental factors (i.e., temperature) control assembly processes of planktonic resistomes. Our findings provide crucial insights into the mechanisms driving the biogeographical distribution and community assembly of planktonic microbial entities in urban rivers at a continental scale, offering valuable implications for mitigating and managing the spread of ARGs from the environment to humans.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143875674","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}