Rohan D. Simkin, Barbara A. Han, Volker C. Radeloff, Shannon LaDeau, Franz Schug, Karen C. Seto
{"title":"Zoonotic Host Richness in the Global Wildland–Urban Interface","authors":"Rohan D. Simkin, Barbara A. Han, Volker C. Radeloff, Shannon LaDeau, Franz Schug, Karen C. Seto","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70039","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70039","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Where human settlements abut or intermix with wildlands, people may encounter animals that host zoonotic pathogens which can spillover to cause human disease. Known as the wildland–urban interface (WUI), this zone occupies around 5% of the Earth's surface and is home to 3.5 billion people. The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 has demonstrated the importance of understanding risk factors for disease among an increasingly urbanized population. However, the contribution of the WUI to zoonotic disease risk is poorly understood. Here, we show that low-level host richness occurs throughout most of the global WUI, and 20% of the human WUI population live in zones of particularly high zoonotic potential, where more than 20 host species could occur. Zones of high zoonotic potential are concentrated in low–middle-income countries (LMICs) across equatorial Africa, Brazil, Central America, and Southeast Asia where vulnerability is further elevated by widespread poverty, inadequate housing, and lack of easily accessible healthcare. Three of four people living in WUIs with high host richness (520 million people) are in LMICs. Of this population, 35% (183 million) live in and around cities in West, East, and South Africa. This means that WUI-based populations of LMICs may face the double threat of high zoonotic potential and vulnerability to disease. Our results identify global priorities for monitoring exposure to zoonotic diseases in the rapidly expanding WUI.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143124884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Peiyan Wang, Jinsong Wang, Song Wang, Ludovica D'Imperio, Bo Elberling, Per Ambus, Zhen Zhang, Akihiko Ito, Yang Li, Junxiao Pan, Lei Song, Ning Liu, Ruiyang Zhang, Weinan Chen, Shuli Niu
{"title":"Soil Moisture Threshold of Methane Uptake in Alpine Grassland Ecosystems","authors":"Peiyan Wang, Jinsong Wang, Song Wang, Ludovica D'Imperio, Bo Elberling, Per Ambus, Zhen Zhang, Akihiko Ito, Yang Li, Junxiao Pan, Lei Song, Ning Liu, Ruiyang Zhang, Weinan Chen, Shuli Niu","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70062","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) uptake in alpine ecosystems is an important component of the global CH<sub>4</sub> sink. However, large uncertainties remain regarding the magnitude and spatial patterns of CH<sub>4</sub> uptake, owing to its extensive spatial variability, diverse controlling factors, and limited regional-scale observations. Here, we investigated field ecosystem CH<sub>4</sub> uptake along a 3200-km transect across various alpine grasslands on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP). We found a substantial spatial variation in in situ CH<sub>4</sub> uptake among alpine grasslands, with the highest rates in drier regions of the mid-western QTP. Soil moisture was the most important factor controlling CH<sub>4</sub> uptake, exhibiting a remarkably low threshold of 6.2 ± 0.1 v/v %. Below this threshold, CH<sub>4</sub> uptake was constrained by soil moisture, moisture-induced nitrogen limitation, and high temperatures. Above this threshold, CH<sub>4</sub> uptake was mainly limited by gas diffusion and low temperatures. By integrating grid predictors with a random forest model trained on 1851 field measurements encompassing both our observations and a regional synthesis across the QTP, we estimated a regional CH<sub>4</sub> uptake of 0.88 ± 0.020 Tg CH<sub>4</sub> year<sup>−1</sup> from all alpine grasslands on the QTP. This higher estimate, primarily driven by alpine steppes, was significantly greater than current regional estimates from global CH<sub>4</sub> models. Our findings highlight the importance of CH<sub>4</sub> sink in dry alpine ecosystems characterized by low soil moisture, suggesting that the contribution of CH<sub>4</sub> sink in drylands may have been substantially underestimated in the current global CH<sub>4</sub> budget.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143111526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Coastal Marsh Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise Is Exacerbated by Plant Species Invasion","authors":"Dawei Wang, Chuanhui Gu, Stijn Temmerman, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Olivier Gourgue, Liming Xue, Junhong Bai","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70058","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70058","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Coastal salt marshes and their valuable ecosystem services are vulnerable to degradation due to rising sea levels, to which they can adapt through biogeomorphic feedbacks. However, the invasion of plant species, particularly eco-engineering species that alter these interactions, may degrade the structural integrity and functionality of salt marshes, potentially reducing their resilience to sea-level rise. Such impacts presently remain poorly understood. Focusing on coastal marshes of China, we utilized a coupled biogeomorphic model to explore the effects of <i>Spartina alterniflora</i> invasion versus native <i>Suaeda salsa</i> on coastal geomorphology, considering different sea-level rise and tidal scenarios. Our results revealed that <i>Spartina alterniflora</i> invasion contributed to the formation of a “levee-basin” geomorphological structure at both the landscape scale (from seaward to landward zones) and the local scale (from channel fringes to marsh interiors). This pattern led to a prominent marsh depression, particularly in “basin” areas under microtidal conditions, indicating increased vulnerability to rising sea levels in invaded systems. Additionally, the proliferation of <i>Spartina alterniflora</i> could completely displace <i>Suaeda salsa</i>. Our findings emphasize the importance of controlling plant invasion to safeguard ecosystem resilience to environmental change.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143077186","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Isabelle S. Helfenstein, Joan T. Sturm, Bernhard Schmid, Alexander Damm, Meredith C. Schuman, Felix Morsdorf
{"title":"Satellite Observations Reveal a Positive Relationship Between Trait-Based Diversity and Drought Response in Temperate Forests","authors":"Isabelle S. Helfenstein, Joan T. Sturm, Bernhard Schmid, Alexander Damm, Meredith C. Schuman, Felix Morsdorf","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70059","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70059","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate extremes such as droughts are expected to increase in frequency and intensity with global change. Therefore, it is important to map and predict ecosystem responses to such extreme events to maintain ecosystem functions and services. Alongside abiotic factors, biotic factors such as the proportion of needle and broadleaf trees were found to affect forest drought responses, corroborating results from biodiversity–ecosystem functioning (BEF) experiments. Yet it remains unclear to what extent the behavior of non-experimental systems at large scales corresponds to the relationships discovered in BEF experiments. Using remote sensing, the trait-based functional diversity of forest ecosystems can be directly quantified. We investigated the relationship between remotely sensed functional richness and evenness and forest drought responses using data from temperate mixed forests in Switzerland, which experienced an extremely hot and dry summer in 2018. We used Sentinel-2 satellite data to assess aspects of functional diversity and quantified drought response in terms of resistance, recovery, and resilience from 2017 to 2020 in a scalable approach. We then analyzed the BEF relationship between functional diversity measures and drought response for different aggregation levels of richness and evenness of three physiological canopy traits (chlorophyll, carotenoid/chlorophyll ratio, and equivalent water thickness). Forest stands with greater trait richness were more resistant and resilient to the drought event, and the relationship of trait evenness with resistance or resilience was hump-shaped or negative, respectively. These results suggest forest functional diversity can support forests in such drought responses via a mixture of complementarity and dominance effects, the first indicated by positive richness effects and the second by negative evenness effects. Our results link ecosystem functioning and biodiversity at large scales and provide new insights into the BEF relationships in non-experimental forest ecosystems.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70059","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143077187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yuzheng Ren, Songlin Liu, Jiening Liang, Anirban Akhand, Hongxue Luo, Zhijian Jiang, Yunchao Wu, Xiaoping Huang, Peter I. Macreadie
{"title":"Improving Carbon Budgets by Accounting for Inorganic Carbon in Seagrass Ecosystems","authors":"Yuzheng Ren, Songlin Liu, Jiening Liang, Anirban Akhand, Hongxue Luo, Zhijian Jiang, Yunchao Wu, Xiaoping Huang, Peter I. Macreadie","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70060","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70060","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>While seagrass ecosystems are acknowledged for their role as blue carbon sinks, significant uncertainties remain regarding the sequestration of sediment inorganic carbon (SIC) and its broader implications for carbon cycling. These knowledge gaps hinder a comprehensive assessment of the contribution of seagrass ecosystems to the global carbon budget. To address this gap, the drivers and sources of SIC in nine seagrass ecosystems in the tropical Indo-Pacific were analyzed using partial least squares path modeling and carbon and oxygen isotopes binding Bayesian mixing models. We found that SIC content varies regionally, ranging from 0.03% to 10.18%, and is positively correlated with seagrass biomass, temperature, salinity, and coarse-grained sediment. SIC stocks ranged from 1.53 to 203.17 Mg C ha<sup>−1</sup>, confirming the role of tropical Indo-Pacific seagrass ecosystems as a significant pool for SIC. SIC content and stock beneath seagrass ecosystems are generally higher than those in unvegetated areas due to the capacity to trap particles of the seagrass canopy. SIC beneath seagrass ecosystems affected by runoff is mainly from terrestrial inputs. Conversely, SIC under seagrass ecosystems regulated by seawater is primarily derived from local production and inputs from adjacent ecosystems and fish farming wastewater. This study provides a robust method to enhance the accuracy of blue carbon accounting in seagrass ecosystems by the inclusion of inorganic carbon burial.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143077267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Xiyang Hao, Marcel Holyoak, Zhicheng Zhang, Chuan Yan
{"title":"Global Projection of Terrestrial Vertebrate Food Webs Under Future Climate and Land-Use Changes","authors":"Xiyang Hao, Marcel Holyoak, Zhicheng Zhang, Chuan Yan","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70061","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70061","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Food webs represent an important nexus between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, yet considering changes in food webs around the world has been limited by data availability. Previous studies have predicted food web collapses and coextinction, but changes in food web structure have been less investigated under climate warming and anthropogenic pressures on a global scale. We systematically amassed information about species' diets, traits, distributions, habitat use, and phylogenetics in the real world and used machine learning to predict changes in global meta-food webs of terrestrial vertebrates under climate and land-use changes. By year 2100, terrestrial vertebrate food webs are expected to decrease in web size by 32% and trophic links by 49%. Projections predict declines of over 25% in modularity, predator generality, and diversity of trophic groups. Increased species' dispersal could ameliorate these trends but indicate disproportionate vulnerability of regional food webs. Unlike many previous studies, this work combines extensive empirical data with advanced modeling techniques, providing a more detailed and spatially explicit prediction of how global food webs will respond to climate and land-use changes. Overall, our study predicts terrestrial vertebrate food webs will undergo drastic and spatially heterogeneous structural changes.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143077185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Longlong Ma, Jun Ma, Pu Yan, Feng Tian, Josep Peñuelas, Mukund Palat Rao, Yongshuo Fu, Zhenhong Hu
{"title":"Planted Forests in China Have Higher Drought Risk Than Natural Forests","authors":"Longlong Ma, Jun Ma, Pu Yan, Feng Tian, Josep Peñuelas, Mukund Palat Rao, Yongshuo Fu, Zhenhong Hu","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70055","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70055","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>To improve the environment and mitigate climate change, China has implemented ambitious projects for natural forest protection and expanded planted forests. However, increased climate variability has led to more frequent and severe droughts, exacerbating the decline of these forests. The drought risk of planted forests is rarely assessed by considering both resistance and resilience, and comparative analyses between natural and planted forests are lacking. Here, we compared drought resistance and resilience in natural and planted forests across China using satellite observations from 2001 to 2020 to understand which forests were at higher risk of drought. The results showed that planted forests exhibited lower drought resistance and resilience compared to natural forests, particularly in subtropical broad-leaved evergreen forests and warm temperate deciduous broad-leaved forests. Moreover, drought resistance in planted forests significantly increased, while resilience decreased during 2011–2020 compared to 2001–2010, suggesting a shift in the strategies of planted forests to cope with drought stress. The higher drought risk in planted forests compared to natural forests was mainly attributed to lower forest canopy height and poorer soil nutrients, which limited resistance, and lower canopy height and severe drought characteristics (severity, duration, and frequency), which reduced resilience. These results underscore the higher potential risk of drought exposure in planted forests. To mitigate future drought impacts on planted forests under climate change, enhanced management strategies, including the preservation of natural forests and augmentation of structural diversity in planted forests, are imperative.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143083276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Angela Che Ing Tang, Gil Bohrer, Avni Malhotra, Justine Missik, Fausto Machado-Silva, Inke Forbrich
{"title":"Rising Water Levels and Vegetation Shifts Drive Substantial Reductions in Methane Emissions and Carbon Dioxide Uptake in a Great Lakes Coastal Freshwater Wetland","authors":"Angela Che Ing Tang, Gil Bohrer, Avni Malhotra, Justine Missik, Fausto Machado-Silva, Inke Forbrich","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70053","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70053","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Coastal freshwater wetlands are critical ecosystems for both local and global carbon cycles, sequestering substantial carbon while also emitting methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) due to anoxic conditions. Estuarine freshwater wetlands face unique challenges from fluctuating water levels, which influence water quality, vegetation, and carbon cycling. However, the response of CH<sub>4</sub> fluxes and their drivers to altered hydrology and vegetation remains unclear, hindering mechanistic modeling. To address these knowledge gaps, we studied an estuarine freshwater wetland in the Great Lakes region, where rising water levels led to a vegetation shift from emergent <i>Typha</i> dominance in 2015–2016 to floating-leaved species in 2020–2022. Using eddy covariance flux measurements during the peak growing season (June–September) of both periods, we observed a 60% decrease in CH<sub>4</sub> emissions, from 81 ± 4 g C m<sup>−2</sup> in 2015–2016 to 31 ± 3 g C m<sup>−2</sup> in 2020–2022. This decline was driven by two main factors: (1) higher water levels, which suppressed ebullitive fluxes via increased hydrostatic pressure and extended CH<sub>4</sub> residence time, enhancing oxidation potential in the water column; and (2) reduced CH<sub>4</sub> conductance through plants. Net carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) uptake decreased by 90%, from −267 ± 26 g C m<sup>−2</sup> in 2015–2016 to −27 ± 49 g C m<sup>−2</sup> in 2020–2022. Additionally, diel CH<sub>4</sub> flux patterns shifted, with a distinct morning peak observed in 2015–2016 but absent in 2020–2022, suggesting changes in plant-mediated transport and a potential decoupling from photosynthesis. The dominant factors influencing CH<sub>4</sub> fluxes shifted from water temperature and gross primary productivity in 2015–2016 to atmospheric pressure in 2020–2022, suggesting an increased role of ebullition as a primary transport pathway. Our results demonstrate that changes in water levels and vegetation can substantially alter CH<sub>4</sub> and CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes in coastal freshwater wetlands, underscoring the critical role of hydrological shifts in driving carbon dynamics in these ecosystems.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70053","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143071534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Dilemmas in Linking Microbial Carbon Use Efficiency With Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics","authors":"Jiacong Zhou, Yiqi Luo, Ji Chen","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70047","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70047","url":null,"abstract":"<p>There are still large uncertainties on the relationships between microbial carbon use efficiency and soil organic carbon across (1) different carbon use efficiency estimation methods, (2) various temporal, spatial and biological scales, and (3) multiple climate change scenarios. These uncertainties call for further efforts to re-examine the relationships between carbon use efficiency and soil organic carbon to better represent microbial processes in the current modelling frameworks.\u0000 <figure>\u0000 <div><picture>\u0000 <source></source></picture><p></p>\u0000 </div>\u0000 </figure></p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143062199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Orion S. McCarthy, Emily L. A. Kelly, Anela K. Akiona, Samantha M. Clements, Tatiana Martinez, Nicole E. Pedersen, Cole Peralto, Sarah L. Romero, Mitchell H. Smelser, Kristy Wong Stone, Russell T. Sparks, Jennifer E. Smith
{"title":"Using Community Composition and Successional Theory to Guide Site-Specific Coral Reef Management","authors":"Orion S. McCarthy, Emily L. A. Kelly, Anela K. Akiona, Samantha M. Clements, Tatiana Martinez, Nicole E. Pedersen, Cole Peralto, Sarah L. Romero, Mitchell H. Smelser, Kristy Wong Stone, Russell T. Sparks, Jennifer E. Smith","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70050","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70050","url":null,"abstract":"<p>High spatial or temporal variability in community composition makes it challenging for natural resource managers to predict ecosystem trajectories at scales relevant to management. This is commonly the case in nearshore marine environments, where the frequency and intensity of disturbance events vary at the sub-kilometer to meter scale, creating a patchwork of successional stages within a single ecosystem. The successional stage of a community impacts its stability, recovery potential, and trajectory over time in predictable ways. Here we demonstrate the value of successional theory for interpreting fine-scale community heterogeneity using Hawaiian coral reefs as a case study. We tracked benthic community dynamics on 36 forereefs over a 6-year period (2017–2023) that captures impacts from high surf events, a marine heatwave, and unprecedented shifts in human behavior due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We document high spatial variation in benthic community composition that was only partially explained by island and environmental regime. Through hierarchical clustering, we identify three distinct community types that appear to represent different successional stages of reef development. Reefs belonging to the same community type exhibited similar rates of change in coral cover and structural complexity over time, more so than reefs located on the same island. Importantly, communities that were indicative of early succession (low coral cover reefs dominated by stress-tolerant corals) were most likely to experience an increase in coral cover over time, while later-stage successional communities were more likely to experience coral decline. Our findings highlight the influence of life history and successional stage on community trajectories. Accounting for these factors, not simply overall coral cover, is essential for designing effective management interventions. Site-specific management that accounts for a community's unique composition and history of disturbance is needed to effectively conserve these important ecosystems.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70050","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143050862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}