Global Change Biology最新文献

{"title":"Plant Responses to Anomalous Heat and Drought Events in the Sonoran Desert","authors":"Benjamin T. Wilder,&nbsp;Kevin R. Hultine,&nbsp;Wetherbee Bryan Dorshow,&nbsp;Sula E. Vanderplank,&nbsp;Blanca R. López,&nbsp;Alfonso Medel-Narváez,&nbsp;Monica Marvan,&nbsp;Kristen Kindl,&nbsp;Aryn Musgrave,&nbsp;Shane Macfarlan,&nbsp;Exequiel Ezcurra","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70217","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70217","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A shift to greater aridification in dry regions of the world is ongoing and rapidly increasing in intensity, including in the biodiverse Sonoran Desert of the Southwest United States and northern Mexico. In addition to experiencing over two decades of drought, the Sonoran Desert is facing anomalous heat events that are increasing in frequency, evidenced in a record hot and dry period from 2020 to 2021. This article evaluates the impacts of the 2020–2021 region-wide heat and drought event at three scales: (1) a landscape level assessment of ecosystem stress across the entirety of the Sonoran Desert based on precipitation and temperature data from meteorological stations and a satellite-derived vegetation health index (VHI), (2) assessments of stress on iconic columnar cacti and succulent trees, and (3) mechanistic plant responses to extreme heat and drought, and secondary biotic stressors from insect attacks. 2020 was the hottest and driest year since 1980 across the Sonoran Desert region, and vegetation health, determined from VHI, was also near its lowest point. Field-based assessments of columnar cacti across the Sonoran Desert revealed high levels of acute plant stress, including cactus scorching, defined by rapid onset of discolored photosynthetic tissue that leads to permanent photosynthetic dysfunction and increased plant mortality. Tissue scorching corresponded with a three-fold increase in mortality of giant cactus species across the region relative to background levels following 2020–2021. Likewise, repeated plant health surveys show a persistent legacy of the 2020–2021 anomaly, resulting in a marked reduction in the current health and survival of the iconic giant saguaro (<i>Carnegiea gigantea</i>) in the northern Sonoran Desert. This multi-scale assessment of previously anomalous heat and drought events on succulent desert plants shows landscape-wide impacts that could fundamentally reshape populations of these keystone species and the communities that depend on them.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70217","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143919422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does the C:N:P 1:1:1 Ratio Hold? Examining Log-Transformation Bias in Enzyme Stoichiometry","authors":"Jérémy Puissant","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70228","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70228","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Microbial enzymes play a key role in recycling nutrients in soil, but common methods for analyzing enzyme ratios can introduce bias and reinforce misleading patterns. This article challenges the widely accepted global 1:1:1 C:N:P enzyme investment ratio, arguing it may be a methodological artefact, and recommends established, unit-independent approaches as more reliable alternatives for assessing microbial nutrient use.\u0000 <figure>\u0000 <div><picture>\u0000 <source></source></picture><p></p>\u0000 </div>\u0000 </figure></p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70228","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143919421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Microbial Immobilization Shapes the Non-Linear Response of Allochthonous Nitrogen Retention to Grassland Acidification Within Soil Aggregates","authors":"Baitao Gu,&nbsp;Ruzhen Wang,&nbsp;Shaodong Wang,&nbsp;Ying Zhang,&nbsp;Xingguo Han,&nbsp;Biao Zhu,&nbsp;Feike A. Dijkstra,&nbsp;Yong Jiang","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70229","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70229","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Soil nitrogen (N) retention plays a crucial role in determining the ecosystem capacity to buffer anthropogenic N inputs and provides a sustainable N supply. However, the effect of acidification, driven by atmospheric deposition of N and sulfur (S), on the retention and fate of allochthonous N across soil aggregate size classes remains poorly understood. We utilized a soil-acidification gradient induced by 0–50 g S m⁻² year⁻¹ addition to investigate ¹⁵N recovery in soil N pools within aggregates 21 days after labeling in a Eurasian meadow. Macroaggregates showed higher ¹⁵N recovery in microbial biomass, amino acids, amino sugars, and therefore total N (TN), as well as greater sensitivity of the former two fractions to acidification compared to microaggregates. This was accompanied by higher N hydrolases and net N mineralization in macroaggregates, supporting the aggregate hierarchical theory. Under moderate acidification (pH decrease from 7 to 6), ¹⁵N retention in hydrolyzable ammonium, amino sugars, non-hydrolyzable N, and TN decreased, likely due to lower microbial immobilization and entombing of allochthonous N. Conversely, severe acidification (pH decrease below 6) enhanced ¹⁵N retention in these N fractions through stabilization of microbial necromass, revealing a non-linear relationship between acidification and ¹⁵N retention. Concentrations of autochthonous organic N fractions remained unchanged after five-year acidification. These findings underscore the mediating role of soil microbes across aggregates in allochthonous ¹⁵N retention among N fractions with contrasting bioavailability under acidification.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143914552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global Tiger Density Linked With Forest Carbon Stock, Top-Down and Bottom-Up","authors":"Nathan James Roberts,&nbsp;Abishek Harihar,&nbsp;Xuhui Zhou,&nbsp;Wen She,&nbsp;Guangshun Jiang","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70191","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Tiger (<i>Panthera tigris</i>) survival, as apex predators in forest ecosystems, largely depends on abundant prey in healthy, intact forests. Because large herbivore prey are drivers of plant biomass, we reasoned that tiger distribution and density are probably also closely linked with forest carbon (C) stock, the management of which is critical for mitigating climate change. However, whether tigers exert top-down control of forest C stocks or are passive surrogate C indicators bottom-up is a salient unanswered question in conservation and management, particularly in trophic rewilding. Here, we compiled estimates of global tiger presence and density to test the top-down effects of tigers on forest C stocks and tiger-carbon relationships along a gradient from “empty forests” without tigers to “target state” ecosystems with tigers living at different abundances. Our results showed that tiger presence was associated with higher forest vegetation C stocks, lower C emissions, and higher C inputs globally. Top-down effects via ungulate biomass were stronger in less established forests. Furthermore, forest vegetation or soil C stocks increased with tiger density or reached tiger-carbon peaks in four forest habitat types covering most of the tiger range. Our findings reveal that tigers, represented by their presence and density, are both an indicator and a driver of forest ecosystem C stocks, depending on underlying ecological conditions, and could safeguard forests against future C emissions and improve our understanding of climate-C cycle feedback.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143914539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Deer and the Tiger, the Forest and the Carbon","authors":"Oswald J. Schmitz","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70198","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70198","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Healthy, verdant forest ecosystems are indicated by an intact complement of highly abundant vegetation along with diverse and abundant populations of herbivore species and their carnivore predators (Wang et al. &lt;span&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;). Keeping forest ecosystems verdant is considered vital to ensuring planetary resilience to climate change (Watson et al. &lt;span&gt;2018&lt;/span&gt;). This is because the highly abundant vegetation takes up atmospheric carbon that is then stored in vegetation biomass and in soils of those ecosystems (Pan et al. &lt;span&gt;2024&lt;/span&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;But what would happen to climate change resilience if forest ecosystem intactness was disrupted by, say, the loss of predators? The answer depends on how intactness is sustained. Ecological science has two general views on this (Schmitz et al. &lt;span&gt;2018&lt;/span&gt;). One—the bottom-up control view—holds that ecosystems are verdant because vegetation abundance, which is strongly determined by soil nutrient and moisture levels, supports but limits the abundance of herbivore populations, and in turn, populations of their carnivore predators. In this view, climate change resilience would not be disrupted by predator losses (or herbivores for that matter) because animal abundance and diversity do not drive vegetation abundance. The other—the top-down view—holds that predators, by virtue of limiting the abundance of their herbivore prey, keep ecosystems verdant by preventing herbivore overexploitation of vegetation. In this view, climate change resilience would be disrupted by the loss of predators because they ultimately drive vegetation abundance. An important and challenging research frontier for both ecological and global change science is resolving which view of control best explains the climate resilience of verdant forest ecosystems, especially across vast landscapes over which large animals live and roam (Schmitz et al. &lt;span&gt;2018&lt;/span&gt;). This challenge is compounded by variation in biophysical conditions across those vast landscapes because the amount of carbon captured and stored among geographic locations becomes highly dependent upon biophysical context, including climatic conditions, the kinds, diversity, and abundances of plant and animal species, and the nutrient contents and physical properties of soils (e.g., Sobral et al. &lt;span&gt;2017&lt;/span&gt;; Schmitz et al. &lt;span&gt;2018&lt;/span&gt;; Schuldt et al. &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In newly published research in &lt;i&gt;Global Change Biology&lt;/i&gt;, Roberts et al. (&lt;span&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;) address this formidable challenge to reveal how varying abundance and outright loss of a large predator—the tiger (&lt;i&gt;Panthera tigris&lt;/i&gt;)&lt;i&gt;—&lt;/i&gt;and the abundance of its “deer” (i.e., ungulate) prey species are related to the capture and storage of carbon in forests across the tiger's geographic range throughout Asia. This vast landscape has myriad biophysical dimensions that create much context dependency. It contains four broadly different forest ecosystem types, including boreal","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70198","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143914540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Green Manure Coupled With Straw Returning Increases Soil Organic Carbon via Decreased Priming Effect and Enhanced Microbial Carbon Pump","authors":"Guopeng Zhou,&nbsp;Guilong Li,&nbsp;Hai Liang,&nbsp;Rui Liu,&nbsp;Zhengbo Ma,&nbsp;Songjuan Gao,&nbsp;Danna Chang,&nbsp;Jia Liu,&nbsp;David R. Chadwick,&nbsp;Davey L. Jones,&nbsp;Weidong Cao","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70232","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70232","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Green manuring and crop straw returning are widely used to increase soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration, while the pathways and drivers in native SOC mineralization and new SOC formation after implementing these practices remain unclear. Here, through a 10-locations' network field experiment in southern China, the effects of green manuring (Mv), rice straw returning (Rs), and their combination (MR) on soil C sequestration efficiency (CSE) were evaluated. A microcosmic experiment was performed to trace the components and participants of SOC mineralization and formation under the three practices. The network experiment showed that Mv, Rs, and MR annually improved SOC stock by 119.7, 477.0, and 830.2 kg C ha⁻¹, respectively, with MR having the highest CSE of 23.1%, followed by Rs (17.7%) and Mv (13.3%). The microcosmic experiment further revealed that the highest CSE in MR most likely resulted from the low mineralization of native SOC (positive priming effects, PE) and great formation of new SOC through microbial C pump (MCP). Therein, MR mainly downregulated the K-strategists of the microbial community (e.g., <i>Gaiellales</i>) to yield negative PE on recalcitrant native SOC, such as protein/amino sugar- and lignin-like molecules; meanwhile, MR had the highest bacterial and fungal MCPs, which were, respectively, led by r-strategists (e.g., <i>Sporobacter</i>) and molds (e.g., <i>Cladosporium</i>). The study highlights the advantages of mixing low- (Rs) and high-quality (Mv) residues for efficiently increasing SOC sequestration and firstly discovers the core microbes that dominate the mineralization and formation of SOC in paddy fields.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143914553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Role of Forest Carbon Change in Shaping Future Land Use and Land Cover Change","authors":"Meng Luo,&nbsp;Xin Zhao,&nbsp;Dalei Hao,&nbsp;Ben Bond-Lamberty,&nbsp;Adam Daigneault,&nbsp;Pralit L. Patel,&nbsp;Sian Kou-Giesbrecht,&nbsp;Christopher P. O. Reyer,&nbsp;Hamid Dashti,&nbsp;Min Chen","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70219","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70219","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global change, particularly the changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentration, climatic variables, and nitrogen deposition, has been widely recognized and examined to have worldwide impacts on forest carbon. However, its influence on forest area required to meet the demand for timber and carbon storage and subsequent land use and land cover change (LULCC) is rarely studied. This study explores the role of global change-driven forest carbon change in shaping future global LULCC projections and investigates underlying drivers. We incorporated the global change impacts on forest carbon from the Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles model simulations (driven by meteorological forcing projections from two Earth system models [ESMs]) into the Global Change Analysis Model, under three combinations of shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). Including forest carbon change decreases the projected expansion of managed forest and managed pasture, reduces the loss of unmanaged pastures and forests, and provides more cropland. The relative change in managed forest by 2100 is −4.0%, −21.7%, and −31.9%, under SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively, when forest carbon change is considered. CO₂ fertilization is the dominant driver, increasing forest vegetation and soil carbon by 37% and 4.1%, and leading to 78.6% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585. In comparison, climate change reduces forest vegetation and soil carbon by −3.5% and −0.8%, influencing 23.9% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585, while nitrogen deposition has minor impacts. Using meteorological forcing data from two ESMs leads to similar impacts of forest carbon change on LULCC in terms of sign and trend but different magnitudes. This study highlights the large impact of forest carbon change on shaping future LULCC dynamics and the critical role of CO₂ fertilization.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70219","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143914006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate-Induced Physiological Stress Drives Rainforest Mammal Population Declines","authors":"Alejandro de la Fuente,&nbsp;Natalie J. Briscoe,&nbsp;Michael R. Kearney,&nbsp;Stephen E. Williams,&nbsp;Kara N. Youngentob,&nbsp;Karen J. Marsh,&nbsp;Lucas A. Cernusak,&nbsp;Lily Leahy,&nbsp;Johan Larson,&nbsp;Andrew K. Krockenberger","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70215","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70215","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change is a major driver of global biodiversity loss, yet the precise mechanisms linking climate change to population declines remain poorly understood. We developed a novel, broadly applicable framework that integrates biophysical, nutritional, and population modeling to capture fundamental physiological constraints on mammalian herbivores and applied it to investigate the causes of declines in ringtail possums of the Australian Wet Tropics (<i>Pseudochirops archeri</i> and <i>Hemibelideus lemuroides</i>). Our approach bridges the gap between mechanistic (“bottom-up”) models, which simulate species' responses based solely on their traits and local microclimates, and the more common (“top-down”) statistical models, which infer species' responses from occurrence or abundance data and standard environmental variables. We quantified population dynamics over a 30-year period by generating species-specific estimates of temperature and water stress, foraging limitations, and linking these with annual monitoring and nutritional quality within an open population model. Our findings demonstrate that climate change has impacted populations through physiological stress, but in a species-specific manner. Both species have experienced population collapses at lower elevations and in low-nutritional sites. For <i>P. archeri</i>, we found evidence that population changes were driven by reduced survival due to overheating and dehydration, alongside diminished recruitment from limited foraging. In contrast, our model suggests that <i>H. lemuroides</i> populations were primarily affected by foraging constraints, emphasizing the importance of considering climate-driven limitations on foraging activity in addition to direct physiological stress. These mechanistic insights offer a foundation for targeted conservation strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate pressures on wild populations.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70215","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143904982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Variations in Ecosystem-Scale Methane Fluxes Across a Boreal Mire Complex Assessed by a Network of Flux Towers","authors":"Koffi Dodji Noumonvi,&nbsp;Mats B. Nilsson,&nbsp;Joshua L. Ratcliffe,&nbsp;Mats G. Öquist,&nbsp;Natascha Kljun,&nbsp;Johan E. S. Fransson,&nbsp;Järvi Järveoja,&nbsp;Anders Lindroth,&nbsp;Gillian Simpson,&nbsp;Jacob Smeds,&nbsp;Matthias Peichl","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70223","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70223","url":null,"abstract":"<p>High latitude mires are key ecosystems in the context of climate change since they store large amounts of carbon while constituting an important natural source of methane (CH₄). However, while a growing number of studies have investigated methane fluxes (FCH₄) at the plot- (~1 m²) and ecosystem-scale (~0.1–0.5 km²) across the boreal biome, variations of FCH₄ magnitudes and drivers at the mesoscale (i.e., 0.5–20 km²) of a mire complex are poorly understood. This study leveraged a network of four eddy-covariance flux towers to explore the spatio-temporal variations in ecosystem-scale FCH₄ across a boreal mire complex in northern Sweden over 3 years (2020–2022). We found a consistent hierarchy of drivers for the temporal variability in FCH₄ across the mire complex, with gross primary production and soil temperature jointly emerging as primary controls, whereas water table depth had no independent effect. In contrast, peat physical and chemical properties, particularly bulk density and C:N ratio, were identified as significant baseline constraints for the spatial variations in FCH₄ across the mire complex. Our observations further revealed that the 3-year mean annual FCH₄ across the mire complex ranged from 7 g C m⁻² y⁻¹ to 11 g C m⁻² y⁻¹, with a coefficient of variation of 16% that is similar to the variation observed among geographically distant mire systems and peatland types across the boreal biome. Thus, our findings highlight an additional source of uncertainty when scaling information from single-site studies to the mire complex scale and beyond. Furthermore, they suggest an urgent need for peatland ecosystem models to resolve the mesoscale variations in FCH₄ at the mire complex level to reduce uncertainties in the predictions of peatland carbon cycle-climate feedbacks.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70223","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143904980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Consequences of the Collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation for Europe's Forests Would be More Severe Than Those of a ‘Normal’ Climate Change","authors":"Thomas Wohlgemuth,&nbsp;Arthur Gessler","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70201","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;In the blockbuster film ‘The Day After Tomorrow’ (2004), a fictitious collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC; often colloquially referred to as the ‘disruption of the Gulf Stream’), triggered by climate change, caused an abrupt drop in air temperature followed by the start of a new ice age. Director R. Emmerich took for his film the much-discussed theory of the collapse of the AMOC (e.g., Rahmstorf and Ganopolski &lt;span&gt;1999&lt;/span&gt;) that recently gained new attention (van Westen et al. &lt;span&gt;2024&lt;/span&gt;). Then and now, the most pressing question is, whether an abrupt decline of AMOC is possible. According to IPCC (&lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;), a shutdown of the AMOC must be seen as a real possibility and a consequence of climate change. However, the AMOC has been stable for the last 8000 years, and while there is high confidence in its 21st-century decline, the confidence is still medium that there will not be an abrupt collapse before 2100. Only few studies have attempted to estimate the climatic consequences of an AMOC collapse for Europe in a geographically differentiated way (Kuhlbrodt et al. &lt;span&gt;2009&lt;/span&gt;; Jackson et al. &lt;span&gt;2015&lt;/span&gt;; Liu et al. &lt;span&gt;2017&lt;/span&gt;). The study with the highest spatial resolution was conducted by British climate researcher L. Jackson and colleagues, who used complex climate assumptions to create monthly temperature and precipitation maps (Jackson et al. &lt;span&gt;2015&lt;/span&gt;). Heubel et al. &lt;span&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt; now made use of these maps to create model scenarios for the AMOC collapse by 2071–2100, which roughly correspond to the date of 2060 for a recently anticipated tipping point (Ditlevsen and Ditlevsen &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;). In this scenario, the climate would become significantly cooler throughout Europe, in summer by about 2°C–4°C and in winter by 2°C–8°C. Precipitation would generally decrease, with substantial seasonal variations: in the Mediterranean, the summer months June, July, August would turn slightly wetter, while large parts of Eastern Europe would become drier. Winter precipitation in the months December, January and February would fall more often as snow, resulting in 2–3 months of snow cover in western France and 6–8 months in Scandinavia.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;While several spatial projections have been published on the effects of climate change on future climatic suitabilities of the principal European tree species under the assumption of an intact AMOC (e.g., Buras and Menzel &lt;span&gt;2019&lt;/span&gt;), comparable estimates of the impact of an inactive AMOC are lacking. Sina Heubel, Anja Rammig and Allan Buras (Heubel et al. &lt;span&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;) have now ventured to fill this knowledge gap. In their unique modelling study, they compare the change in the potential occurrence of 24 European tree species under a future climate assuming an active or inactive AMOC, while looking closer at the four main tree species in Europe. In total, the authors calculated three AMOC-collapse scenarios based on the","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70201","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143904981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}