Global Change Biology最新文献

{"title":"Increasing Extreme Negative Vegetation Responses to Drought-Related Compound Events","authors":"Haoxiang Zhao,&nbsp;Jingfeng Xiao,&nbsp;Wei Li,&nbsp;Hans W. Chen,&nbsp;Shuiqing Yin,&nbsp;Wenping Yuan,&nbsp;Ziqian Zhong,&nbsp;Lanlan Guo,&nbsp;Yang Chu,&nbsp;Tiewei Li,&nbsp;Bin He","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71136","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.71136","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Vegetation growth is increasingly threatened by both extreme climate events and anthropogenic disturbances. Although considerable attention has been given to detecting large-scale vegetation anomalies, comprehensive analyses of the spatiotemporal dynamics of negative extreme anomalies in vegetation growth (NEGs) and their underlying drivers remain limited. Here, we treat NEGs as event-scale vegetation declines from onset to termination, enabling coherent tracking of vegetation decline events and their associated drivers. Applied to global leaf area index (LAI) data from 2001 to 2024, we find increasing tendencies in both NEG frequency (0.07% year⁻¹, <i>p</i> = 0.13) and affected area (394,471 km² year⁻¹, <i>p</i> = 0.04), reaching 39% of the global land surface by 2024. Interannual variations in NEG frequency and affected area show positive associations with annual mean CO₂ anomalies, which may suggest a potential influence on the stability of the terrestrial carbon sink. Coincidence analysis further indicates that drought-related events dominate globally: single-driver drought events, together with drought-related compound events involving temperature extremes and wildfires, account for 58.5%–59.8% of all NEGs. By the end of the 21st century, up to 50.8% of the global land surface is projected to experience NEGs annually under the high-emission scenario, approximately 1.6 times the simulated historical level. These findings highlight the urgent need for climate mitigation to reduce the intensification of compound climate extremes and underscore the importance of understanding how these events may destabilize ecosystems and amplify climate feedbacks in a warming world.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149083829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cinderella Biodiversity: Three Decades of Monitoring Reveal Earlier Emergence and Increasing Abundance in Undervalued and Sparsely Recorded Flying Insects and Ballooning Spiders","authors":"Yoann Bourhis,Alice E. Milne,Chris R. Shortall,Matt Hampson,Dan Blumgart,William E. Kunin,James R. Bell","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71137","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.71137","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Arthropod declines have been reported widely, and yet the spotlight has fallen on relatively large, colourful insects, rarely considering the abundant, small‐sized, yet charismatic flying insects and ballooning spiders we class as neglected and undervalued ‘Cinderella species’. This diverse set of arthropods contributes important ecosystem services, such as decomposition, pollination, pest regulation and nutrient cycling. We sampled a 30 year long archived arthropod collection, preserved in ethanol from the daily 12.2 m suction‐trap catches at four sites in the UK, to provide new data on more than 600,000 previously unidentified insects and spiders. Group or family‐level trends for the Coleoptera (beetles), Diptera (true flies), Hemiptera (true bugs) and Hymenoptera (bees, ants and wasps) as well as trends for seemingly less well‐known orders including the Psocoptera (barkflies), Dermaptera (earwigs) and Araneae (spiders) are provided. Our aim is to produce 30 year explainable trends in abundance and phenology for 71 Cinderella arthropod groups, and explore their functional trophic guild and habitat use during the immature stage. We trained random forest models to predict log abundance and phenology (Day of 5% catch) using a set of landscape, topography, weather‐related drivers. We show that the majority of arthropod taxa, as well as most trophic and habitat‐use groups, report either stable or increasing abundances, and stable or earlier phenologies. We also found that across taxa, earlier phenologies (54%–70% of taxa) and more abundant catches (55%–77%) are significantly related. These trends are mostly explained by temperature‐related drivers and secondarily by landcover, of which the strongest signal is improved grassland. Our study establishes a quantitative baseline for an undervalued, forgotten and often sparsely recorded segment of Britain's biodiversity.","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":11.6,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149090093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Calcium Demand Drives Phosphorus Surplus in China's Croplands","authors":"Xiaoming Zou,&nbsp;Yu Gao,&nbsp;Yan Ma","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71134","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.71134","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Xu et al. (&lt;span&gt;2026&lt;/span&gt;) provide a comprehensive national-scale analysis of soil available phosphorus (P) dynamics across China's croplands from 1980 to 2018, demonstrating a marked transition from widespread P deficiency to pronounced enrichment, particularly in eastern croplands. Their machine-learning framework identifies management intensity, soil cation exchange capacity (CEC), and pH as the dominant drivers of changes in available soil P. While their empirical findings are robust, we contend that their interpretation of the underlying drivers is incomplete.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Xu et al. attribute the widespread P accumulation to “sustained fertilizer inputs exceeding crop P removal” and to soil properties that influence P sorption and desorption. This framing treats P surplus as a consequence of overfertilization driven by yield maximization, a narrative that has dominated the literature for decades. However, a complementary explanation, overlooked by Xu et al., is that a substantial portion of P surplus is an unintended consequence of using calcium (Ca)-containing P fertilizers to meet crop Ca demand.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Crops require substantially more Ca than P on a mass basis, with aboveground Ca:P ratios typically ranging from 2:1 to 10:1 for most crop species, and up to 30:1 for some tree species and vegetative tissues (White and Broadley &lt;span&gt;2003&lt;/span&gt;; Reuter and Robinson &lt;span&gt;1997&lt;/span&gt;). Yet single and triple superphosphate—the dominant P fertilizers for over a century—supply Ca:P mass ratios of approximately 1.8:1 for SSP and 0.5–0.6:1 for TSP (Sample et al. &lt;span&gt;1980&lt;/span&gt;; McLean &lt;span&gt;1980&lt;/span&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;When farmers apply superphosphate to replenish soil Ca, whether to correct acidity or compensate for decades of crop removal, the amount of P co-applied necessarily exceeds crop removal by a large multiple. Supplying 50 kg Ca ha&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt; through triple superphosphate delivers approximately 66 kg P ha&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt; (152 kg P&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O&lt;sub&gt;5&lt;/sub&gt; ha&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt;), while a typical wheat crop removes only ~25 kg P&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O&lt;sub&gt;5&lt;/sub&gt; ha&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt;—a ~6-fold P surplus. This is not voluntary over-application but an unavoidable byproduct of using a multi-nutrient material to solve a single-nutrient problem (Zou &lt;span&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;). Meeting crop Ca demand with SSP/TSP forces P application several times above crop P demand.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Crucially, simply reducing Ca-containing P fertilizers without addressing underlying Ca demand may inadvertently induce Ca deficiency and reduce crop yields. Phosphorus application has been shown to reduce shoot Ca concentration in wheat, with the reduction being disproportionate to the P application rate (Kizilgoz and Sakin &lt;span&gt;2013&lt;/span&gt;). Furthermore, the interaction between Ca and phosphate is complex: while these ions support each other through simultaneous uptake and translocation, they can also counteract each other through precipitation of less soluble calcium phosphates near nutrient-absorbing root","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.71134","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149083831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forest Densification and Pollution Rival Climate in Driving US Tree Demographic Change","authors":"Matthew M. Kling, P. Alexander Burnham, Matthew P. Dube, Brian J. McGill, Bailey P. McLaughlin, Stephanie N. Miller, Timothy M. Waring, Nicholas J. Gotelli","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71124","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.71124","url":null,"abstract":"Forests play critical roles in biodiversity, climate regulation, and human well‐being, yet their responses to simultaneous environmental changes remain poorly understood. Across the United States, forest demographic rates are influenced by climate change, atmospheric pollution trends, and systematic changes in forest density. In spite of long‐term interest in these facets of global change, their relative importance has not previously been quantified and compared. Here, we apply a framework that decomposes demographic trends into sensitivity (species' responsiveness to environmental variables) and exposure (magnitude of environmental change experienced). Using nationwide forest inventory data from 2002 to 2024, we analyzed how recruitment, growth, and mortality of 100 tree species responded to six environmental variables representing climate, pollution, and forest density. This analysis showed that, despite substantial research attention on climate impacts, changes in forest density and atmospheric pollutant deposition (particularly sulfur) showed stronger associations with all three demographic rates, driven by both higher exposure and greater sensitivity to these factors. We also found that, of the demographic processes, recruitment probability was the most sensitive to each of the six environmental drivers, emphasizing the importance of regeneration in shaping forest responses to global change. The results also document a general slowdown in forest dynamics over recent decades, with declining recruitment, growth, and mortality on average across the United States, albeit with substantial geographic and taxonomic variation. This comprehensive analysis provides a framework for understanding forest responses to complex environmental change, identifying the most influential drivers of demographic processes, and developing targeted conservation and management strategies in an era of rapid change.","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"272 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":11.6,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149083834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Calcium Confound: A Proposed Hypothesis Rather Than an Established Driver of Soil Phosphorus Enrichment","authors":"Zhen Xu,&nbsp;Haiqing Gong,&nbsp;Shuaibing Wu,&nbsp;Zhong Chen,&nbsp;Pengqi Liu,&nbsp;Yulong Yin,&nbsp;Zhenling Cui","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71135","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.71135","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;We thank Zou and colleagues for their interest in our study (Xu et al. &lt;span&gt;2026&lt;/span&gt;) and for highlighting possible calcium (Ca)–phosphorus (P) interactions. Their Letter proposes that a substantial portion of P surplus, and consequently soil P accumulation in China, resulted from Ca-containing P fertilizers used to meet crop Ca demand. This testable hypothesis may be relevant in particular production systems. However, the evidence presented does not establish Ca demand as an important driver of soil P enrichment at the national scale in China.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The Letter interprets our findings as attributing P surplus to “over-fertilization driven by yield maximization.” Our study did not examine motivations underlying fertilizer application. We concluded that widespread soil P enrichment reflects sustained P inputs exceeding crop P removal, consistent with recent evidence on legacy P accumulation (Helfenstein et al. &lt;span&gt;2024&lt;/span&gt;; Gong et al. &lt;span&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;; McDowell and Haygarth &lt;span&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;). The role of sustained external P inputs was supported by 23 long-term fertilization experiments, in which soil available P remained low without P addition but increased under sustained P inputs (Xu et al. &lt;span&gt;2026&lt;/span&gt;). Whether Ca demand influenced fertilizer-source selection or application rates is a separate question requiring direct evidence.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Crop Ca demand does not translate directly into an equivalent requirement for external Ca fertilization. The Letter illustrates that supplying 50 kg Ca ha&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt; through triple superphosphate would co-apply 112.5 kg P&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O&lt;sub&gt;5&lt;/sub&gt; ha&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt;, but it does not establish that 50 kg Ca ha&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt; represents an actual external Ca requirement, nor that such a requirement was historically met through triple superphosphate. The calculation therefore illustrates a possible consequence of a particular fertilization scenario rather than demonstrating that Ca demand drove historical P fertilizer application. Establishing such a mechanism at the national scale would require direct evidence linking soil Ca status and Ca management to fertilizer choice and application rates. The citation provided for the Jiangxi example does not support the claim as stated. Cai et al. (&lt;span&gt;2015&lt;/span&gt;) report an 18-year fertilization experiment on N-induced soil acidification and manure amendment, rather than a lime-subsidy programme, and do not report a 27% reduction in superphosphate use.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The importance of pH and cation exchange capacity (CEC) in our model is not diagnostic of a Ca-driven fertilizer mechanism. Soil pH regulates phosphate sorption and desorption through changes in mineral-surface charge and phosphate speciation (Gustafsson et al. &lt;span&gt;2012&lt;/span&gt;; Barrow &lt;span&gt;2022&lt;/span&gt;), whereas CEC reflects broader soil colloidal surface-charge characteristics relevant to P retention and availability (Dunne and Holden &lt;span&gt;2021&lt;/span&gt;). Our study explicitly stated that SHAP-based at","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.71135","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149083832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Vegetation Phenology Shifts Under Climate Change: Cross-Season Mechanisms and Consequences for Ecosystem Productivity","authors":"Zunchi Liu,&nbsp;Zhaofei Wu,&nbsp;Constantin M. Zohner,&nbsp;Yao Zhang,&nbsp;Josep Peñuelas,&nbsp;Yongshuo H. Fu","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71112","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.71112","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Vegetation phenology—the timing of recurring life-cycle events—has shifted markedly under climate change, with far-reaching consequences for terrestrial ecosystems and the climate system. Yet phenological research has largely focused on discrete events, often overlooking the continuous and seasonally connected nature of vegetation development. Here, we synthesize recent evidence into a cross-season framework in which spring (start of the growing season), peak (timing of maximum greenness/photosynthetic capacity), and autumn (end of the growing season) phenology are treated as dynamically linked phases. Within this framework, spring phenology is governed by chilling-forcing dynamics, which are modulated by contemporary environmental cues, previous-year autumn phenology, and resource status. Peak phenology is primarily driven by early-season development and carbon uptake, both of which are influenced by spring phenology and temperature. Autumn phenology integrates late-season environmental conditions with legacies of earlier development, mediated by carbon source-sink balance and water and nutrient availability. Across these phases, the evidence points to reciprocal coupling between phenology, carbon uptake, and developmental processes: phenological shifts reshape the seasonal trajectory of productivity and growth, and the resulting carbon dynamics feedback to regulate subsequent developmental transitions. This seasonally integrated perspective provides a mechanistic basis for predicting how non-linear, season-specific climate change will reorganize the terrestrial carbon cycle, and calls for phenology models that explicitly represent cross-season linkages.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149083833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Overwintering Strategies Drive Climate Change Impacts on Body Mass in Northern Mammals","authors":"Olivia Leach,&nbsp;Michael J. L. Peers,&nbsp;Abigail Earle,&nbsp;Yasmine N. Majchrzak,&nbsp;Rudy Boonstra,&nbsp;Stan Boutin,&nbsp;Dennis L. Murray,&nbsp;Thomas S. Jung,&nbsp;B. Scott Gilbert,&nbsp;Alice J. Kenney,&nbsp;Eric Vander Wal","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71132","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.71132","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Climate change drives variable shifts in mammalian body sizes, yet the mechanisms underlying this variation remain unclear. Two explanations prevail: (1) higher temperatures reduce thermal constraints, favouring smaller bodies; or (2) warming enhances primary productivity, supporting larger bodies. We propose that species' overwintering strategies, which mitigate exposure to winter temperatures, determine which mechanism predominates. Using ~50 years of body mass data, we tested these hypotheses in three small mammals with contrasting natural histories in the rapidly warming Yukon, Canada. Snowshoe hares (<i>Lepus americanus</i>), exposed to ambient winter conditions, declined in mass over time and responded negatively to temperature and snow. In subnivean species, deer mice (<i>Peromyscus maniculatus</i>) showed no long-term trend but increased body mass with growing degree days, whereas red-backed voles (<i>Clethrionomys rutilus</i>) increased with temperature and snow. The results demonstrate that overwintering ecology mediates climate-driven body mass change, emphasizing the role of natural history in shaping species' responses to warming.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149077636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Physicochemical Protection Outweighs Microbial Carbon Use Efficiency in Regulating Soil Organic Carbon Across an Aridity Gradient","authors":"Junxiao Pan,&nbsp;Xianjin He,&nbsp;Jinsong Wang,&nbsp;Zhenrui Zhang,&nbsp;Jiashao Bai,&nbsp;Zijian Guo,&nbsp;Kunwei Wang,&nbsp;Han Zheng,&nbsp;Yifei Peng,&nbsp;Ruiyang Zhang,&nbsp;Xinyu Zhang,&nbsp;Shuli Niu","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71138","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.71138","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) has been proposed as a critical determinant of soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics, yet its relative importance compared with plant carbon inputs, edaphic conditions, microbial attributes, and physicochemical protection remains poorly understood. Here, we conducted large-scale soil samplings across a 3000-km aridity gradient on the Tibetan Plateau to evaluate the contribution of microbial CUE to SOC variation. Microbial CUE increased with increasing aridity, whereas SOC declined, resulting in a weak negative relationship between CUE and SOC along the aridity gradient. This increase in CUE was primarily driven by reduced microbial respiration, while microbial growth remained largely unchanged. By contrast, correlation analyses revealed strong positive relationships between SOC and physicochemical protection, plant diversity and carbon inputs, edaphic properties, and microbial attributes. Random forest and structural equation models further showed that SOC variation was more strongly associated with indicators of physicochemical protection, including mineral-associated organic carbon, clay content, calcium-bound carbon, and microbial residue carbon than with microbial CUE. Together, our findings challenge the view that microbial CUE alone governs SOC accumulation and highlight the importance of stabilization processes in regulating SOC variations across the aridity gradient.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149078014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate-Driven Shifts in Flowering Phenology of Wild Tropical Plants Uncovered by Century-Long Herbarium and Photographic Records","authors":"Qianhuai Xue,&nbsp;Yann Vitasse,&nbsp;Danxiao Peng,&nbsp;Yanjun Du","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71130","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.71130","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Research on phenological responses to climate change has primarily focused on temperate regions, while tropical species remain critically understudied due to a historical scarcity of long-term monitoring data in these areas. We utilized digitized herbarium specimens and photographs to analyze century-long shifts (1921–2020) in the flowering phenology of 56 native plant species on Hainan Island, China. Species-specific linear models were used to quantify phenological responses of flowering day of year (DOY) to temperature and precipitation, and linear mixed-effects models were applied to test whether these responses differed among flowering seasons. We further evaluated phylogenetic signals in flowering date and climatic sensitivities and used phylogenetic generalized least-squares models to compare functional groups while accounting for phylogenetic non-independence. Our results revealed strong seasonally divergent responses to warming: increasing temperatures significantly delayed flowering of spring- and summer-flowering species (+5.01 ± 0.32 and + 1.96 ± 0.47 days/°C, respectively), whereas they advanced flowering of autumn-winter-flowering species (−5.61 ± 0.64 days/°C). Increased precipitation was associated with delayed flowering in spring and summer (+3.54 ± 0.21 and + 4.21 ± 0.17 days/10 mm, respectively). We detected no significant phylogenetic signal in flowering date or climatic sensitivities. Flowering season was significantly associated with both temperature and precipitation sensitivities, whereas most functional-group differences within flowering seasons were nonsignificant. Our findings reveal strong seasonal heterogeneity in tropical flowering responses to climate and highlight the need to incorporate such heterogeneity into projections of tropical plant responses to future climate change.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149068543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Silent Alarms? Unveiling Destabilization Risk in Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Fluxes","authors":"Filipe M. Andrade,&nbsp;Roberto Molowny-Horas,&nbsp;Marcos Fernández-Martínez","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71100","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.71100","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Ecosystems are increasingly exposed to the pressures of global change, with climate emerging as one of the most influential drivers. However, the mechanisms leading to increased ecosystem destabilization risk remain poorly understood. In this study, we used eddy-covariance carbon flux measurements (GPP, NEP, and Re) from 65 terrestrial ecosystems across the globe, including forests, shrublands, and grasslands from boreal, temperate and Mediterranean biomes to investigate early warning signals of destabilization by analyzing indicators of critical slowing down (trends in lag-1 temporal autocorrelation and interannual variability) and flickering (trends in skewness and kurtosis). We also examined the influence of climate, nutrients, biodiversity, mycorrhizal associations, and vegetation type as potential drivers of these early warning signals. Our results show no widespread transition toward instability, yet a significant subset of sites displayed rising destabilization risk driven mostly by climate variability. Plant biodiversity failed to buffer against this increasing destabilization risk, whereas dominance by either arbuscular or ectomycorrhizal associations appeared to support resilience in NEP. Importantly, we observed that NEP destabilization correlates with reduced carbon sequestration, highlighting a critical feedback mechanism for the global carbon cycle. This research highlights the urgent need to understand the drivers of the temporal behavior of land C fluxes beyond their annual sums in order to properly assess future carbon-climate feedbacks.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149068544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}