Global Change Biology最新文献

{"title":"Drought Impacts on Plant–Soil Carbon Allocation—Integrating Future Mean Climatic Conditions","authors":"Vinzent Leyrer,&nbsp;Juliette Blum,&nbsp;Sven Marhan,&nbsp;Ellen Kandeler,&nbsp;Telse Zimmermann,&nbsp;Bernd J. Berauer,&nbsp;Andreas H. Schweiger,&nbsp;Alberto Canarini,&nbsp;Andreas Richter,&nbsp;Christian Poll","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70070","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Droughts affect soil microbial abundance and functions—key parameters of plant–soil carbon (C) allocation dynamics. However, the impact of drought may be modified by the mean climatic conditions to which the soil microbiome has previously been exposed. In a future warmer and drier world, effects of drought may therefore differ from those observed in studies that simulate drought under current climatic conditions. To investigate this, we used the field experiment ‘Hohenheim Climate Change,’ an arable field where predicted drier and warmer mean climatic conditions had been simulated for 12 years. In April 2021, we exposed this agroecosystem to 8 weeks of drought with subsequent rewetting. Before drought, at peak drought, and after rewetting, we pulse-labelled winter wheat in situ with ¹³CO₂ to trace recently assimilated C from plants to soil microorganisms and back to the atmosphere. Severe drought decreased soil respiration (−35%) and abundance of gram-positive bacteria (−15%) but had no effect on gram-negative bacteria, fungi, and total microbial biomass C. This pattern was not affected by the mean precipitation regime to which the microbes had been pre-exposed. Reduced mean precipitation had, however, a legacy effect by decreasing the proportion of recently assimilated C allocated to the microbial biomass C pool (−50%). Apart from that, continuous soil warming was an important driver of C fluxes throughout our experiment, increasing plant biomass, root sugar concentration, labile C, and respiration. Warming also shifted microorganisms toward utilizing soil organic matter as a C source instead of recently assimilated compounds. Our study found that moderate shifts in mean precipitation patterns can impose a legacy on how plant-derived C is allocated in the microbial biomass of a temperate agroecosystem during drought. The overarching effect of soil warming, however, suggests that how temperate agroecosystems respond to drought will mainly be affected by future temperature increases.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70070","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143388921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Leaf Temperatures in an Indian Tropical Forest Exceed Physiological Limits but Durations of Exposures Are Currently Not Sufficient to Cause Lasting Damage","authors":"Akhil Javad,&nbsp;Vikhyath Premugh,&nbsp;Rakesh Tiwari,&nbsp;Peddiraju Bandaru,&nbsp;Ron Sunny,&nbsp;Balachandra Hegde,&nbsp;Santiago Clerici,&nbsp;David Galbraith,&nbsp;Manuel Gloor,&nbsp;Deepak Barua","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70069","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70069","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Increasing temperatures in the tropics will reduce performance of trees and agroforestry species and may lead to lasting damage and leaf death. One criterion to determine future forest resilience is to evaluate damage caused by temperature on Photosystem-II (PSII), a particularly sensitive component of photosynthesis. The temperature at which 50% of PSII function is lost (<i>T</i>_<i>50</i>) is a widely used measure of irreversible damage to leaves. To assess vulnerability to high temperatures, studies have measured <i>T</i>_<i>50</i> or leaf temperatures, but rarely both. Further, because extant leaf temperature records are short, duration of exposure above thresholds like <i>T</i>_<i>50</i> has not been considered. Finally, these studies do not directly assess the effect of threshold exceedance on leaves. To understand how often, and how long, leaf temperatures exceed critical thresholds, we measured leaf temperatures of forest and agroforestry species in a tropical forest in the Western Ghats of India where air temperatures are high. We quantified species-specific physiological thresholds and assessed leaf damage after high-temperature exposure. We found that leaf temperatures already exceed <i>T</i>_<i>50</i>. However, continuous exposure durations above critical thresholds are very skewed with most events lasting for much less than 30 min. As <i>T</i>_<i>50</i> was measured after a 30-min exposure, our results suggest that threshold exceedances and exposure durations for lasting damage are currently not reached and will rarely be reached if maximum air temperatures increase by 4°C. Consistent with this, we found only minor indications of heat damage in the forest species. However, there were indications of heat-induced reduction in PSII function and damage in the agroforestry leaves which have lower <i>T</i>_<i>50</i>. Our findings suggest that, for forest species, while high-temperature thresholds may be surpassed, durations of exposure above thresholds remain short, and therefore, are unlikely to lead to irreversible damage and leaf death, even under 4°C warming.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70069","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143375331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Twenty-First-Century Environmental Change Decreases Habitat Overlap of Antarctic Toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) and Its Prey","authors":"Cara Nissen,&nbsp;Jilda Alicia Caccavo,&nbsp;Anne L. Morée","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70063","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70063","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Antarctic toothfish are a commercially exploited upper-level predator in the Southern Ocean. As many of its prey, the ectothermic, water-breathing Antarctic toothfish is specifically adapted to the temperature and oxygen conditions present in the high-latitude Southern Ocean. Additionally, the life cycle of Antarctic toothfish depends on sea-ice dynamics and the transport of individuals by currents between regions with different prey. To assess the impact of 21st-century climate change on potential interactions of Antarctic toothfish and its prey, we here employ the extended aerobic growth index (AGI), which quantifies the effect of ocean temperature and oxygen levels on the habitat viability of individual species. We quantify changes in predator–prey interactions by a change in viable habitat overlap as obtained with the AGI. As environmental data, we use future projections for four emission scenarios from the model FESOM-REcoM, which is specifically designed for applications on and near the Antarctic continental shelf. For the two highest-emission scenarios, we find that warming and deoxygenation in response to climate change cause a subsurface decline of up to 40% in viable habitat overlap of Antarctic toothfish with important prey species, such as Antarctic silverfish and icefish. Acknowledging regional differences, our results demonstrate that warming and deoxygenation alone can significantly perturb predator–prey habitat overlap in the Southern Ocean. Our findings highlight the need for a better quantitative understanding of climate change impacts on Antarctic species to better constrain future ecosystem impacts of climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70063","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143380443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Navigating Climate Change: Exploring the Dynamics Between Plant–Soil Microbiomes and Their Impact on Plant Growth and Productivity","authors":"Murad Muhammad,&nbsp;Abdul Wahab,&nbsp;Abdul Waheed,&nbsp;Khalid Rehman Hakeem,&nbsp;Heba Ibrahim Mohamed,&nbsp;Abdul Basit,&nbsp;Muhammad Danish Toor,&nbsp;Yong-Hong Liu,&nbsp;Li Li,&nbsp;Wen-Jun Li","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70057","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70057","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Understanding the intricate interplay between plant and soil microbiomes and their effects on plant growth and productivity is vital in a rapidly changing climate. This review explores the interconnected impacts of climate change on plant–soil microbiomes and their profound effects on agricultural productivity. The ongoing rise in global temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns and extreme weather events significantly affect the composition and function of microbial communities in the rhizosphere. Changes in microbial diversity and activity due to rising temperatures impact nutrient cycling, microbial enzyme synthesis, soil health and pest and disease management. These changes also influence the dynamics of soil microbe communities and their capability to promote plant health. As the climate changes, plants' adaptive capacity and microbial partners become increasingly crucial for sustaining agriculture. Mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on plant growth and agricultural productivity requires a comprehensive understanding of the interconnected mechanisms driving these processes. It highlights various strategies for mitigating and adapting to environmental challenges, including soil management, stress-tolerant crops, cover cropping, sustainable land and water management, crop rotation, organic amendments and the development of climate-resilient crop varieties. It emphasises the need for further exploration of plant–soil microbiomes within the broader context of climate change. Promising mitigation strategies, including precision agriculture and targeted microbiome modifications, offer valuable pathways for future research and practical implementation of global food security and climate change.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143375329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interactions Between Climate Mean and Variability Drive Future Agroecosystem Vulnerability","authors":"Eva Sinha,&nbsp;Donghui Xu,&nbsp;Kendalynn A. Morris,&nbsp;Beth A. Drewniak,&nbsp;Ben Bond-Lamberty","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70064","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70064","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Agriculture is crucial for global food supply and dominates the Earth's land surface. It is unknown, however, how slow but relentless changes in climate <i>mean</i> state, versus random extreme conditions arising from changing <i>variability</i>, will affect agroecosystems' carbon fluxes, energy fluxes, and crop production. We used an advanced weather generator to partition changes in mean climate state versus variability for both temperature and precipitation, producing forcing data to drive factorial-design simulations of US Midwest agricultural regions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. We found that an increase in temperature mean lowers stored carbon, plant productivity, and crop yield, and tends to convert agroecosystems from a carbon sink to a source, as expected; it also can cause local to regional cooling in the earth system model through its effects on the Bowen Ratio. The combined effect of mean and variability changes on carbon fluxes and pools was nonlinear, that is, greater than each individual case. For instance, gross primary production reduces by 9%, 1%, and 13% due to change in mean temperature, change in temperature variability, and change in both temperature mean and variability, respectively. Overall, the scenario with change in both temperature and precipitation means leads to the largest reduction in carbon fluxes (−16% gross primary production), carbon pools (−35% vegetation carbon), and crop yields (−33% and −22% median reduction in yield for corn and soybean, respectively). By unambiguously parsing the effects of changing climate mean versus variability and quantifying their nonadditive impacts, this study lays a foundation for more robust understanding and prediction of agroecosystems' vulnerability to 21st-century climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70064","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143258243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increasing Hydroclimatic Whiplash Can Amplify Wildfire Risk in a Warming Climate","authors":"Daniel L. Swain,&nbsp;John T. Abatzoglou,&nbsp;Christine M. Albano,&nbsp;Manuela I. Brunner,&nbsp;Noah S. Diffenbaugh,&nbsp;Crystal Kolden,&nbsp;Andreas F. Prein,&nbsp;Deepti Singh,&nbsp;Christopher B. Skinner,&nbsp;Thomas W. Swetnam,&nbsp;Danielle Touma","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70075","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70075","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;On January 7 and 8, 2025, a series of wind-driven wildfires occurred in Los Angeles County in Southern California. Two of these fires ignited in dense woody chaparral shrubland and immediately burned into adjacent populated areas–the Palisades Fire on the coastal slopes of the Santa Monica Mountains and the Eaton fire in the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains. Both fires ultimately eclipsed the traditionally-defined “wildland-urban interface” boundaries by burning structure-to-structure as an urban conflagration. The scope of the devastation is staggering; at the time of writing, the fires have together killed at least 29 people, destroyed over 16,000 structures (Helsel &lt;span&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;), and are expected to become the costliest global wildfire disaster on record.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The chaparral ecosystems that prevail across coastal southern California (CSC) evolved with frequent wildfire. Regions with Mediterranean climates (like CSC) are characterized by cool, wet winters and hot, dry summers. Vegetation typically becomes progressively drier, with corresponding landscape-level flammability rising, from spring through summer and peaking in early autumn prior to the onset of the rainy season sometime between October and December. The region is also susceptible to strong, downslope “Santa Ana” windstorms during autumn and winter, which cause air to warm and dry as it accelerates and descends steep mountain slopes, further desiccating vegetation. Thus, the autumn (and, increasingly, early winter) months bring episodic periods of elevated wildfire risk across CSC; a majority of the region's fastest-moving and most historically destructive fires have occurred during this window of overlap between critically dry vegetation and strong downslope winds (Abatzoglou et al. &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The catastrophic January 2025 fires were propelled by an especially extreme combination of these two recognized risk factors: (1) downslope wind gusts over 80 mph (35 m/s) and (2) exceptionally dry vegetation following a historically dry start to the rainy season and unusually warm antecedent temperatures driving a prolonged episode of elevated atmospheric evaporative demand. But there was also a third contributor: two consecutive anomalously wet winters (in 2022–2023 and 2023–2024), which led to abundant growth of herbaceous vegetation across CSC. This remarkable wet-to-dry sequence (Figure 1A), therefore, set the stage for the CSC wildfire disasters to unfold by first facilitating prodigious fuel accumulation during the previous growing seasons (Keeley &lt;span&gt;2004&lt;/span&gt;), then subsequently drying vegetation to produce exceptional flammability unusually far into winter (when Santa Ana winds are common).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Globally, climate change has increased wildfire potential primarily through greater aridity (Jain et al. &lt;span&gt;2022&lt;/span&gt;). In CSC, hotter summer and autumn seasons drive this aridity by increasing evaporative demand (i.e., atmospheric “thirst”), subsequentl","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70075","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143258242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Turning Up the Heat: More Persistent Precipitation Regimes Weaken the Micro-Climate Buffering Capacity of Forage Grasses During a Hot Summer","authors":"Simon Reynaert,&nbsp;Ivan Nijs,&nbsp;Tommy D'Hose,&nbsp;Erik Verbruggen,&nbsp;Jutte Callaerts,&nbsp;Hans J. De Boeck","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70078","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70078","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Developing climate-proof forage grasslands does not only require developing plant communities that are soil drought resistant, but also adept at buffering elevated atmospheric temperatures to minimize heat stress for plant and soil. Previous studies indicate that the emerging trend towards rainfall regimes with longer dry and wet spells negatively affects forage grass performance (i.e., greater physiological plant stress and yield loss) in Western Europe. We conducted a 120-day open-air experiment testing whether a hot summer (+3°C for the first 60 days) exacerbates the negative effects of increased persistence in precipitation regimes (PR) (3 vs. 30 days consecutive wet/dry) on the performance of four distinct forage varieties (<i>Dactylis glomerata</i>, <i>Festuca arundinacea</i>, <i>Lolium perenne</i> (tetraploid) and <i>Lolium perenne</i> (diploid)) across two soils differing in management history (permanent vs. temporary grasslands). Our results indicate that climate warming indeed worsens negative effects of more persistent PR on forage grass productivity and physiological plant stress by inducing more extreme soil drought and elevated micro-climatic temperatures, but permanent grassland soils with elevated organic carbon can buffer yields. Moreover, higher yielding varieties are more proficient at buffering soil surface and canopy temperatures and maintaining plant greenness and stomatal opening under water shortage and elevated temperatures (<i>Dactylis</i> and <i>Festuca</i>) were impacted less than those which could not (both <i>Lolium</i> cultivars). These results indicate that not only differences in resource-extraction traits but also the ability of a species to buffer its surrounding microclimatic conditions shapes its response to future climate change. Given the indirect positive effects such temperature-buffering traits may have on soil functioning (e.g., reduced soil respiration during heat waves limiting carbon loss), we argue that managers should also incorporate such traits when developing climate-proof forage grasslands.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143258244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Broad-Scale Meta-Analysis of Drivers Mediating Adverse Impacts of Flow Regulation on Riparian Vegetation","authors":"Xiaolei Su,&nbsp;María Dolores Bejarano,&nbsp;Roland Jansson,&nbsp;Francesca Pilotto,&nbsp;Judith M. Sarneel,&nbsp;Feng Lin,&nbsp;Yi Wang,&nbsp;Fu Cai,&nbsp;Shan Wu,&nbsp;Bo Zeng","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70042","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70042","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Over two-thirds of global rivers are subjected to flow regulation. Although it is widely recognized that flow regulation can adversely affect riparian vegetation—a critical component of river ecosystems—the specific roles of various drivers remain poorly understood. To address this gap, we conducted a broad-scale meta-analysis, aiming to elucidate how different factors mediate the adverse impacts of flow regulation on riparian vegetation. This meta-analysis encompassed 59 papers, spanning 278 dams constructed on 146 rivers. We extracted data on four key indices of riparian vegetation: species richness and abundance of all riparian species, and those indices exclusively for non-native species. Indices were compared between regulated and free-flowing or pre-damming rivers to quantify the impact of flow regulation. Our meta-analysis revealed a moderate but significant reduction in the richness and abundance of all riparian species under flow regulation, coupled with a strong increase in the abundance of non-native species. Riparian vegetation in arid and continental climate regions experienced stronger negative impacts than those in tropical and temperate climates. Furthermore, the adverse effects on riparian vegetation were more pronounced downstream of dams than upstream. Considering climate region, study identity, and relative position to the dam as random variables, it became evident that years since flow regulation emerged as the most important factor influencing species richness. Over time, richness gradually recovered from initially low levels. However, this recovery was slowed by increasing flow regulation intensity (percentage of annual runoff stored). Additionally, the impact was more evident in larger rivers. To support regulated river management, we recommend prioritizing the protection of riparian vegetation in arid and continental climates, with emphasis on areas downstream of dams, limiting flow regulation intensity, particularly in larger rivers, and monitoring non-native species to prevent disproportionate spread.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143124345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Local- and Regional-Scale Climate Variability Drives Complex Patterns of Growth Synchrony and Asynchrony in Deep-Sea Snappers Across the Indo-Pacific","authors":"Joseph B. Widdrington,&nbsp;Patrick Reis-Santos,&nbsp;Jed I. Macdonald,&nbsp;Bradley R. Moore,&nbsp;Simon J. Nicol,&nbsp;John R. Morrongiello,&nbsp;Bronwyn M. Gillanders","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70051","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70051","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climatic variation can play a critical role in driving synchronous and asynchronous patterns in the expression of life history characteristics across vast spatiotemporal scales. The synchronisation of traits, such as an individual's growth rate, under environmental stress may indicate a loss of phenotypic diversity and thus increased population vulnerability to stochastic deleterious events. In contrast, synchronous growth under favourable ecological conditions and asynchrony during unfavourable conditions may help population resilience and buffer against the negative implications of future environmental variability. Despite the significant implications of growth synchrony and asynchrony to population productivity and persistence, little is known about its causes and consequences either within or among fish populations. This is especially true for long-lived deep-sea species that inhabit environments characterised by large-scale interannual and decadal changes, which could propagate growth synchrony across vast distances. We developed otolith growth chronologies for three deep-sea fishes (<i>Etelis</i> spp.) over 65° of longitude and 20° of latitude across the Indo-Pacific region. Using reconstructed time series of interannual growth from six distinct Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), we assessed the level of spatial synchrony at the individual-, population- and species-scale. Across five decades of data, complex patterns of synchronous and asynchronous growth were apparent for adult populations within and among EEZs of the Pacific Ocean, mediated by shifts in oceanographic phenomena such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Overall, our results indicate that the degree of synchrony in biological traits at depth depends on life history stage, spatiotemporal scales of environmental variability and the influence of ecological factors such as competition and dispersal. By determining the magnitude and timing of spatially synchronous growth at depth and its links to environmental variability, we can better understand fluctuations in deep-sea productivity and its vulnerability to future environmental stressors, which are key considerations for sustainability.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70051","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143124346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reducing Fire Severity and Extent Bolsters Subalpine Forest Resilience to Global Change Through Key Demographic Pathways","authors":"Daniel L. Perret,&nbsp;David M. Bell,&nbsp;Harold S. J. Zald","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70052","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70052","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>High-elevation subalpine forests are experiencing rapid changes in climatic conditions, biological disturbances, and wildfire regimes. Despite this, evidence is mixed as to whether they will undergo major ecological transformation or be resilient to a confluence of global change drivers. Here we use subalpine fir (<i>Abies lasiocarpa</i>) and Englemann spruce (<i>Picea engelmannii</i>), which form co-dominant forests through much of the western United States, to investigate how species' demographic responses to global change influence forest community-wide resilience. We do this by adapting and building on an existing framework for post-disturbance ecological reorganization. With forest inventory data from the United States Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program, we quantify population trends for subalpine fir and Engelmann spruce across their joint distribution and organize them in a new conceptual framework for categorizing forest community trajectories. We then build hierarchical Bayesian demographic models of subalpine fir and Engelmann spruce mortality, regeneration, and recruitment as functions of climate, disturbance extent and severity, and forest structural predictors. We bring demographic predictions together in a multinomial classification model to quantify how combinations of demographic rates influence overall forest community trajectories. Finally, we apply future climate and disturbance scenarios to our demographic models to explore how subalpine forest resilience may change in the future. We found strong negative relationships between the demography of both species and disturbance extent and severity, and climatic responses in line with an energy-limited forest system. Future scenario model predictions indicate that reducing wildfire extent and severity can greatly bolster overall subalpine forest resilience; the preferred way to do this will vary according to fire history, forest type, biophysical setting, and land tenure. Opportunities for high-impact management interventions are concentrated in the northern Rocky Mountains, with centers of ongoing resilience in parts of the Oregon and Washington Cascades.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143124347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}