Global Change Biology最新文献

{"title":"Patterns of Adaptation to Drought in Quercus robur Populations in Central European Temperate Forests","authors":"Tetyana Nosenko,&nbsp;Hilke Schroeder,&nbsp;Ina Zimmer,&nbsp;Franz Buegger,&nbsp;Franziska Orgel,&nbsp;Imke Burau,&nbsp;Prasath Balaji Sivaprakasam Padmanaban,&nbsp;Andrea Ghirardo,&nbsp;Ronja Bracker,&nbsp;Birgit Kersten,&nbsp;Jörg-Peter Schnitzler","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70168","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70168","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In order to predict the future of European forests, it is crucial to assess the potential of the dominant perennial species to adapt to rapid climate change. The aim of this study was to reconstruct the pattern of distribution of drought tolerance in <i>Quercus robur</i> in the current center of the species' range. The distribution and plasticity of drought-related traits in German populations of <i>Q. robur</i> were assessed and the effects of spring phenology and species demographic history on this distribution were evaluated using a drought stress experiment in a common garden. We show that variation of drought-related functional traits, including intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE), leaf osmotic potential (π), and rate of drought-induced defoliation, is high within <i>Q. robur</i> populations. However, frequency of trees with high estimated constitutive drought tolerance increases with decreasing water availability in the regions of population origin, indicating local adaptation to drought. A strong correlation between the distribution of drought-related traits and spring phenology observed in <i>Q. robur</i> suggests that adaptation to water deficit interacts with adaptation to the strong seasonality of the central European climate. The two processes are not influenced by the history of post-glacial recolonisation of central Europe. The results of this study provide a basis for optimistic prognoses for the future of this species in the center of its current distribution range.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70168","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143762014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Additive Effects of Multiple Global Change Drivers on Terrestrial Nitrogen Cycling Worldwide","authors":"Bangjing Ding,&nbsp;Di Xu,&nbsp;Shuo Wang,&nbsp;Wenzhi Liu,&nbsp;Quanfa Zhang","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70176","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70176","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Global change has dramatically altered the Earth's biogeochemical cycles. However, the interactive effects of multiple global change factors (GCFs) on terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling worldwide remain unclear, limiting the ability to predict how future global change will affect the global N cycle. We conducted a meta-analysis of 108 published articles to evaluate the main and interactive effects of elevated CO₂, N addition, warming, and altered precipitation on soil N pools (NH₄⁺, NO₃⁻, and organic N) and transformation rates (N mineralization, nitrification, and denitrification) across terrestrial ecosystems. Results showed that single GCFs impacted the soil N cycle in different directions and magnitudes, with N addition and increased precipitation having the strongest positive effects on N pools and transformation rates, respectively. Moreover, the positive effects of N addition on the soil N cycle were generally enhanced when combined with other GCFs. Although the interactions of multiple GCFs were commonly additive (66.2%–83.3%), both synergistic (10.5%–15.1%) and antagonistic (2.8%–18.9%) effects were also observed. The types of treatment and ecosystem, geographic location, and climate all regulated the responses of soil N pools to GCFs to some degree, while only the types of treatment and ecosystem significantly affected the response of soil transformation rates to GCFs. These findings emphasize the importance of considering interactive effects among GCFs on terrestrial N cycling and highlight the necessity of incorporating these interactions into Earth system models for accurate predictions of N cycling responses to global changes.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143770074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Microbiomes as Modulators of Human and Planetary Health: A Relational and Cross-Scale Perspective","authors":"Anna Handte-Reinecker,&nbsp;Mallika Sardeshpande","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70152","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70152","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The various human microbiomes play critical roles in maintaining health and well-being, and they are continuously shaped by a complex web of internal and external factors. Research on human and environmental microbiomes is generally discrete within disciplinary areas such as medicine, microbiology, molecular ecology, etc. This paper presents a perspective based on a scoping review of the literature, aiming to explore how these interconnected microbiomes shape human health and well-being and, in turn, planetary health. We explore the working of human microbiomes from cellular mechanisms to population outcomes, and the role of intrinsic and extrinsic factors influencing these microbiomes. We argue that global trends such as the homogenization of diets, environments, and medical practices are driving shifts in microbial diversity, with far-reaching implications for human health and well-being as well as planetary health. Disruptions to microbial feedback mechanisms at individual, community, and ecosystem levels are often interconnected and exacerbated by biodiversity loss and environmental change. We underscore the need for holistic public health interventions that account for microbiome stewardship across scales. By examining these connections, we aim to highlight the importance of a systems-level understanding of the microbiome in public health.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70152","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143770078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multiple Models of European Marine Fish Stocks: Regional Winners and Losers in a Future Climate","authors":"Sévrine F. Sailley,&nbsp;Ignacio A. Catalan,&nbsp;Jurgen Batsleer,&nbsp;Sieme Bossier,&nbsp;Dimitrios Damalas,&nbsp;Cecilie Hansen,&nbsp;Martin Huret,&nbsp;Georg Engelhard,&nbsp;Katell Hammon,&nbsp;Susan Kay,&nbsp;Francesc Maynou,&nbsp;J. Rasmus Nielsen,&nbsp;Andrés Ospina-Álvarez,&nbsp;John Pinnegar,&nbsp;Jan Jaap Poos,&nbsp;Vasiliki Sgardeli,&nbsp;Myron A. Peck","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70149","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70149","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change continues to alter the productivity of commercially and culturally important fisheries with major consequences for food security and coastal economies. We provide the first, multi-model projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of 18 key fish stocks across seven European regional seas spanning the Mediterranean to the Arctic, using 11 state-of-the-art bio-ecological models. Our projections indicate species- and region-specific changes in abundance and distributions of these stocks by the mid- to late 21st century. The varied responses are caused by differences in species' physiology, regional food web dynamics, and physical habitat characteristics. Important drivers include not only warming of Europe's seas (from 1°C to 3°C in RCP 4.5, and 2°C to 4°C in RCP 8.5 by 2100) and changes in primary productivity but also oxygen-limited fish growth, changes in pH, and benthic dissolved organic carbon. Warming and altered levels of secondary production are projected to lead to declines in some stocks (Norwegian and Barents Sea herring) and increases in others (Bay of Biscay anchovy). While some temperate and cold-water stocks are projected to decline markedly in some regions (e.g., North Sea, Western Mediterranean), the immigration of species from the south and/or increase in productivity of warm-water species may offer new opportunities for fisheries. Species-level changes will likely have ecosystem-level consequences that have yet to be fully assessed, and responses in some sub-areas may be more pronounced due to local processes not captured in projections. Projections are consistent despite differences in model structures, and the results of our multi-model analysis align with other modelling exercises while delving into details often overlooked at the species or spatial level. This represents a novel approach to projecting the impacts of climate change on fisheries, which should be considered in future efforts to support climate-ready management strategies for marine fish stocks.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70149","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143762048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tundra Vegetation Community Type, Not Microclimate, Controls Asynchrony of Above- and Below-Ground Phenology","authors":"Elise C. Gallois,&nbsp;Isla H. Myers-Smith,&nbsp;Colleen M. Iversen,&nbsp;Verity G. Salmon,&nbsp;Laura L. Turner,&nbsp;Ruby An,&nbsp;Sarah C. Elmendorf,&nbsp;Courtney G. Collins,&nbsp;Madelaine J. R. Anderson,&nbsp;Amanda Young,&nbsp;Lisa Pilkinton,&nbsp;Gesche Blume-Werry,&nbsp;Maude Grenier,&nbsp;Geerte Fälthammar-de Jong,&nbsp;Inge H. J. Althuizen,&nbsp;Casper T. Christiansen,&nbsp;Simone I. Lang,&nbsp;Cassandra Elphinstone,&nbsp;Greg H. R. Henry,&nbsp;Nicola Rammell,&nbsp;Michelle C. Mack,&nbsp;Craig See,&nbsp;Christian Rixen,&nbsp;Robert D. Hollister","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70153","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70153","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The below-ground growing season often extends beyond the above-ground growing season in tundra ecosystems and as the climate warms, shifts in growing seasons are expected. However, we do not yet know to what extent, when and where asynchrony in above- and below-ground phenology occurs and whether variation is driven by local vegetation communities or spatial variation in microclimate. Here, we combined above- and below-ground plant phenology metrics to compare the relative timings and magnitudes of leaf and fine-root growth and senescence across microclimates and plant communities at five sites across the Arctic and alpine tundra biome. We observed asynchronous growth between above- and below-ground plant tissue, with the below-ground season extending up to 74% (~56 days) beyond the onset of above-ground leaf senescence. Plant community type, rather than microclimate, was a key factor controlling the timing, productivity, and growth rates of fine roots, with graminoid roots exhibiting a distinct ‘pulse’ of growth later into the growing season than shrub roots. Our findings indicate the potential of vegetation change to influence below-ground carbon storage as the climate warms and roots remain active in unfrozen soils for longer. Taken together, our findings of increased root growth in soils that remain thawed later into the growing season, in combination with ongoing tundra vegetation change including increased shrub and graminoid abundance, indicate increased below-ground productivity and altered carbon cycling in the tundra biome.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70153","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143758386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increased Soil Nitrogen Availability Suppresses Annual Soil Respiration in Mixed Temperate Forests Regardless of Acidification","authors":"David W. Frey,&nbsp;Eden Kebede,&nbsp;Jed P. Sparks,&nbsp;Timothy J. Fahey,&nbsp;Christine L. Goodale","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70140","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70140","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Soil respiration (Rsoil) is the second largest terrestrial carbon (C) flux, and therefore, it is imperative to understand and quantify its responses to global environmental change. Rsoil consists of two component CO₂ fluxes: autotrophic respiration from the metabolic activity of roots (Ra_-root) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) derived from the metabolic activity of mycorrhizal fungi and microbial decomposition of detritus, soil organic matter, and rhizodeposits. Increased nitrogen (N) availability often reduces Rsoil in forest ecosystems, but it remains unclear which contributing fluxes govern Rsoil responses and if suppression of Rsoil results from increased N availability itself or from the tendency of added N to acidify soil. Here, we address these uncertainties in a long-term, large-scale factorial N × pH experiment in six temperate forest stands in central New York, USA. We anticipated that increasing soil N availability would decrease plant belowground C allocation and related root-associated respiration and that soil acidification would suppress microbial decomposition, thereby reducing Rh. We found that both acidifying and deacidifying N additions suppressed annual Rsoil by 19% and 13%, respectively (−1.8 Mg C ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ overall), but acidification (from pH 4.67 to 4.22) alone did not detectably affect this flux. Annual Rsoil decreased steeply (<i>R</i>² = 0.66, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001) as soil N availability increased. Nitrogen additions generally suppressed Rh, especially in the forest floor (−34%), whereas the effects of acidification alone varied by soil depth, with substantial suppression in the forest floor (−33%) partially offset by stimulation at depth. A novel partitioning of Rsoil component responses suggests that N additions suppressed root-associated respiration by ~1.1 Mg C ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ (62% of the Rsoil suppression), while acidification alone had no effect. Our findings demonstrate that soil N availability, not soil pH, is the predominant biogeochemical control over Rsoil in these temperate forests, with larger responses of plant-driven C fluxes than microbial-driven C fluxes.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70140","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749648","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mycorrhiza—Saprotroph Interactions and Carbon Cycling in the Rhizosphere","authors":"Binu M. Tripathi,&nbsp;Juan Piñeiro,&nbsp;Chansotheary Dang,&nbsp;Edward Brzostek,&nbsp;Ember M. Morrissey","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70173","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70173","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Labile carbon (C) inputs in soils are expected to increase in the future due to global change drivers such as elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations or warming and potential increases in plant primary productivity. However, the role of mycorrhizal association in modulating microbial activity and soil organic matter (SOM) biogeochemistry responses to increasing below-ground C inputs remains unclear. We employed ¹⁸O–H₂O quantitative stable isotope probing to investigate the effects of synthetic root exudate addition (0, 250, 500, and 1000 μg C g soil⁻¹) on bacterial growth traits and SOM biogeochemistry in rhizosphere soils of trees associated with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) and ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi. Soil respiration increased proportionally to the amount of exudate addition in both AM and ECM soils. However, microbial biomass C (MBC) responses differed, increasing in AM and decreasing in ECM soils. In AM soils, exudate addition increased taxon-specific and community-wide relative growth rates of bacteria, leading to enhanced biomass production. Conversely, in ECM soils, relative growth rates were less responsive to exudate addition, and estimates of MBC mortality increased with increasing exudate addition. In the AM soils, aggregated bacterial growth traits were predictive of soil respiration, but this relationship was not observed in ECM soils, perhaps due to substantial MBC mortality. These findings highlight the distinct responses of bacterial communities in AM and ECM rhizosphere soils to exudate addition. Considering that microbial products contribute to the formation of stable soil organic carbon (SOC) pools, future increases in labile exudate release in response to global change may consequently lead to greater SOC gains in AM soils compared to ECM soils.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increases in Arctic Extreme Climatic Events Are Linked to Negative Fitness Effects on the Local Biota","authors":"Maya Lemaire,&nbsp;Stef Bokhorst,&nbsp;Alistair Witheford,&nbsp;Marc Macias-Fauria,&nbsp;Roberto Salguero-Gomez","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70157","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70157","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Arctic harbours uniquely adapted biodiversity and plays an important role in climate regulation. Strong warming trends in the terrestrial Arctic have been linked to an increase in aboveground biomass (Arctic greening) and community-wide shifts such as the northwards-expansion of boreal species (borealization). Whilst considerable efforts have been made to understand the effects of warming trends in average temperatures on Arctic biota, far fewer studies have focused on trends in extreme climate events and their biotic effects, which have been suggested to be particularly impactful during the Arctic winter months. Here, we present an analysis of trends in two ecologically relevant winter extreme events—extreme winter warming and rain-on-snow—followed by a meta-analysis on the evidence base for their effects on Arctic biota. We show a strong increase in extreme winter warming across the entire Arctic and high variability in rain-on-snow trends, with some regions recently experiencing rain-on-snow for the first time whilst others seeing a decrease in these events. Ultimately, both extreme events show significant changes in their characteristics and patterns of emergence. Our meta-analysis, encompassing 178 effect sizes across 17 studies and 49 species, demonstrates that extreme winter warming and rain-on-snow induce negative impacts on Arctic biota, with certain taxonomic groups—notably angiosperms and chordates (mostly vertebrates)—exhibiting higher sensitivity than others. Our study provides evidence for both emerging trends in Arctic winter extreme climate events and significant negative biotic effects of such events—which calls for attention to winter weather variability under climate change in the conservation of Arctic biodiversity, whilst highlighting important knowledge gaps.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70157","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nitrogen Availability and Changes in Precipitation Alter Microbially Mediated NO and N2O Emissions From a Pinyon–Juniper Dryland","authors":"Sharon Zhao,&nbsp;Alexander H. Krichels,&nbsp;Elizah Z. Stephens,&nbsp;Anthony D. Calma,&nbsp;Emma L. Aronson,&nbsp;G. Darrel Jenerette,&nbsp;Marko J. Spasojevic,&nbsp;Joshua P. Schimel,&nbsp;Erin J. Hanan,&nbsp;Peter M. Homyak","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70159","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70159","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change is altering precipitation regimes that control nitrogen (N) cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. In ecosystems exposed to frequent drought, N can accumulate in soils as they dry, stimulating the emission of both nitric oxide (NO; an air pollutant at high concentrations) and nitrous oxide (N₂O; a powerful greenhouse gas) when the dry soils wet up. Because changes in both N availability and soil moisture can alter the capacity of nitrifying organisms such as ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) and archaea (AOA) to process N and emit N gases, predicting whether shifts in precipitation may alter NO and N₂O emissions requires understanding how both AOA and AOB may respond. Thus, we ask: How does altering summer and winter precipitation affect nitrifier-derived N trace gas emissions in a dryland ecosystem? To answer this question, we manipulated summer and winter precipitation and measured AOA- and AOB-derived N trace gas emissions, AOA and AOB abundance, and soil N concentrations. We found that excluding summer precipitation increased AOB-derived NO emissions, consistent with the increase in soil N availability, and that increasing summer precipitation amount promoted AOB activity. Excluding precipitation in the winter (the most extreme water limitation we imposed) did not alter nitrifier-derived NO emissions despite N accumulating in soils. Instead, nitrate that accumulated under drought correlated with high N₂O emission via denitrification upon wetting dry soils. Increases in the timing and intensity of precipitation that are forecasted under climate change may, therefore, influence the emission of N gases according to the magnitude and season during which the changes occur.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70159","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143707307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate Change and Marine Food Webs: Navigating Structural Uncertainty Using Qualitative Network Analysis With Insights for Salmon Survival","authors":"Lisa G. Crozier,&nbsp;Dylan G. E. Gomes,&nbsp;David D. Huff","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70143","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70143","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Effectively modeling the impact of climate change on any population requires careful consideration of diverse pressures. Potential changes in interactions with other species must be accounted for. As communities reassemble and shifts in abundance and distribution cascade throughout ecosystems, cumulative impacts on species of conservation concern need to be explicitly examined. A structured qualitative analysis of alternative responses to climate change across the food web can play a valuable role in the design and interpretation of quantitative models. A particular advantage of qualitative network analysis is the ease with which a wide range of scenarios representing structural and quantitative uncertainties can be explored. We tested 36 plausible representations of connections among salmon and key functional groups within the marine food web using qualitative network models. The scenarios differed in how species pairs were connected (positive, negative, or no interaction) and which species responded directly to climate change. Our analysis showed that certain configurations produced consistently negative outcomes for salmon, regardless of the specific values for most of the links. Salmon outcomes shifted from 30% to 84% negative when consumption rates by multiple competitor and predator groups increased following a press perturbation from climate. This scenario aligns with some recent observations during a marine heatwave. Feedbacks between salmon and mammalian predators were particularly important, as were indirect effects connecting spring- and fall-run salmon. We also identified which links most strongly influenced salmon outcomes in other scenarios. Our results emphasize the importance of structural uncertainty in food webs and demonstrate a tool for exploring it, paving the way for more targeted and effective research planning.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70143","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143707312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}