Global Change Biology最新文献

{"title":"Differing Impacts of Livestock Farming and Ranching on Aquatic Insect Biodiversity: A Global Meta-Analysis","authors":"Lindsey A. Barnes,&nbsp;Emily Wenban-Smith,&nbsp;Grace Skinner,&nbsp;Lynn V. Dicks,&nbsp;Joseph Millard,&nbsp;Andrew J. Bladon","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70513","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70513","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Recent studies examining global insect biodiversity trends have shown declines for many terrestrial species but increases in some aquatic species, albeit with limited spatial coverage. However, the impact of a wide range of threats on insect biodiversity remains uncertain at a global scale. Livestock farming and ranching constitute approximately 30% of global land use and represent a major and growing threat to biodiversity. Although we know livestock farming and ranching affect aquatic macroinvertebrates via degradation of water quality and habitat, there are no global syntheses of the impacts of livestock on the biodiversity of aquatic insects. Here, we investigate the impact of livestock farming and ranching on the abundance and richness of five major aquatic insect orders: Ephemeroptera (mayflies), Plecoptera (stoneflies), Trichoptera (caddisflies), Megaloptera (dobsonflies and alderflies), and Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies). Our meta-analysis shows that livestock farming significantly reduces species richness of Ephemeroptera, Trichoptera, and Plecoptera compared to areas with no livestock present. In contrast, we found no overall impact of livestock farming on the abundance of aquatic insects or individual orders, even after accounting for moderators such as livestock type, riparian vegetation presence, and stocking density. The apparent stability in insect abundance, combined with declines in richness, suggests there may be shifts in community composition that cannot be captured with a broad-scale analysis. Further research is needed at finer taxonomic resolution, coupled with increased reporting of quantitative stocking density and livestock water access, to better understand the apparently heterogeneous effects of livestock on aquatic insects and predict the impacts of further spread and intensification of livestock farming.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70513","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145111304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Adapted Yet at Risk: The Paradox of Thermotolerant Species in a Warming World","authors":"Susana Pallarés,&nbsp;Stefano Mammola,&nbsp;David Sánchez-Fernández","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70500","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70500","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Assessing the persistence capacity of poor-dispersal species under climate change requires integrating knowledge of both physiological sensitivity (e.g., thermal tolerance metrics) and projected climatic exposure. While warm-adapted species in climatically buffered habitats could persist longer, and heat-sensitive species in rapidly warming regions might face higher extinction risk, such a simplistic dichotomy of “winners” and “losers” often fails to reflect the complexity of real-world systems. Drawing on recent literature on ectotherm thermal tolerance, we argue here that thermotolerant species generally inhabit regions with historically high thermal variability, where intense climatic shifts are often projected. This leads to a paradox where heat-tolerant species are experiencing similar or even higher climate stress than heat-sensitive ones. In addition, multiple methodological challenges in estimating thermal limits, accounting for behavioral, physiological, and evolutionary capacities, and predicting exposure to novel climatic conditions complicate assessments of persistence capacity. We advocate for a shift toward more mechanistic methodological frameworks for assessing thermal tolerance, and for the incorporation of climatic variability at biologically relevant spatial and temporal scales, thereby enabling more accurate forecasts of species' responses to climate change. Such a refined approach is essential to inform effective climate-adaptive biodiversity conservation strategies, especially for taxa with limited capacity to track shifting climates.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70500","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145111305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Late 21st-Century Climate and Land Use Driven Loss of Plant Diversity in African Mountains","authors":"João de Deus Vidal Junior,&nbsp;Alexandre Antonelli,&nbsp;Clinton Carbutt,&nbsp;Vincent Ralph Clark,&nbsp;Tobias Fremout,&nbsp;Christopher Chapano,&nbsp;Inês Chelene,&nbsp;David Chuba,&nbsp;Tadesse Woldemariam Gole,&nbsp;Clayton Langa,&nbsp;Benoit Loeuille,&nbsp;Ermias Lulekal Molla,&nbsp;Timothy Richard Pearce,&nbsp;Andrew J. Plumptre,&nbsp;Feyera Senbeta,&nbsp;Carolina Tovar,&nbsp;Joseph Douglas Mandla White,&nbsp;Christine Brigitte Schmitt","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70492","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70492","url":null,"abstract":"<p>With the 1.5°C–5°C increase in global temperature projected for this century, many plant species are expected to shift their distribution ranges to track their environmental requirements. Across several mountain regions, responses to climate change like upslope shifts may result in accelerated rates of species turnover, species richness increases in upper montane belts, and amplified habitat losses. Yet, evidence of how such processes may influence plant diversity in Africa is still scarce. Here, using a species distribution modeling approach, we quantify and map how different scenarios of climatic and land-use changes may affect plant species ranges in African mountains. Using individually tuned models and dispersal buffers, we compared distribution losses and potential expansion through dispersal across 607 vascular plant species under three shared socioeconomic pathways for the end of the century. Our projections indicate that keeping warming under 2°C until 2100 under a sustainability scenario (SSP1.26), almost half (49.3%) of the species would experience a contraction in suitable areas, compared to 71%–75.6% in case these targets are not met (SSP3.70 and SSP5.85). Among these losses, mean contractions between 19% and 50.4% are predicted depending on the scenario. We project rates of upslope shifts that may be up to three times higher than the global calculated average. Contractions will be higher for species occurring at upper elevations, and trees and shrubs will show lower declines. Our findings align with previously reported trends of upslope shifts of species distributions but suggest that accelerated rates of change may limit the capacity of some species to track their niche based solely on their natural dispersal capacity. This implies that further efforts to improve habitat connectivity, restoration, and assisted migration may be necessary.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70492","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145111394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-Term Cambial Phenology Reveals Diverging Growth Responses of Two Tree Species in a Mixed Forest Under Climate Change","authors":"David Almagro,&nbsp;Darío Martin-Benito,&nbsp;Sergio Rossi,&nbsp;María Conde,&nbsp;Laura Fernández-de-Uña,&nbsp;Guillermo Gea-Izquierdo","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70503","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70503","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The net effect of stress induced by climate change on forest functional dynamics remains uncertain. We monitored the dynamics of wood formation and cambial phenology for 11 consecutive years in two co-occurring tree species with different drought tolerance, <i>Pinus sylvestris</i> and <i>Quercus pyrenaica</i>, providing a unique long-term xylogenesis dataset (2012–2022). To assess the influence of climate on cambial and xylem developmental phases, we analyzed biologically meaningful climatic covariates across different time windows. In pine, late-winter temperatures strongly regulated the onset of cambial reactivation, advancing it 5.5 days per°C of warming, with reactivation occurring between early April and mid-May depending on winter thermal conditions. The onset of cambial reactivation in oaks was influenced both by soil water content and late-winter temperature, although the effect of temperature was weaker and restricted to a narrower time window than in pines. The effect of climate on the end of enlargement was nearly identical in both species, consistent with a turgor-driven regulation: higher maximum temperatures accelerated the process, whereas late-spring precipitation in late spring delayed it. In oaks and pines, the end of wood formation was advanced under hot and dry summers, inducing the early cessation of secondary wall lignification and, thus, reducing the length of xylogenesis. Despite the positive effect of warmer winters on earlier cambial resumption in pines, the duration of the enlargement phase (i.e., radial growth period) remained consistently shorter than in the more drought-tolerant oaks. Yet, the high phenological pasticity of pines to winter temperatures may also increase their growth duration, thereby partially buffering the negative effects of hotter droughts. The long dataset analyzed provided a robust assessment of species-specific phenological plasticity under climate change. Disentangling the net effect of climate on xylogenesis is crucial to understand future growth dynamics in mixed forests where more drought-tolerant species are becoming increasingly dominant.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70503","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145111306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global Drivers of Echolocating Mammal Species Richness","authors":"Juncheng Li,&nbsp;Nan Wu,&nbsp;Jie Wang,&nbsp;Jinyu Guo,&nbsp;Chris Newman,&nbsp;Qian Qian,&nbsp;Christina D. Buesching,&nbsp;David W. Macdonald,&nbsp;Youbing Zhou","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70522","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70522","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Echolocation provides a non-visual perception modality. The extensive diversity of echolocating mammal species is widely distributed across most global regions and latitudes, yet the factors determining their distribution remain unclear. Using Bayesian inference and dimensionality reduction analysis, here we established that mean annual temperature was the most important factor driving the richness of terrestrial echolocating mammal species, while net primary productivity drove non-echolocating mammal species richness. In contrast, in aquatic habitats, species richness for both echolocating and non-echolocating mammals was determined by mean annual sea surface temperature but, interestingly, operated in opposing directions. Further analysis revealed that the species richness pattern for all echolocating mammals was strongly affected by climatic isolation. While global species richness drivers were broadly consistent with biogeographical regions, there were also several regional exceptions. Our findings have important applications for targeting the conservation of echolocators subject to human-induced rapid environmental change.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145111393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Mechanisms Through Which Fire Drives Population Change in Terrestrial Biota","authors":"Ella Plumanns-Pouton,&nbsp;Julianna L. Santos,&nbsp;Cristina Aponte,&nbsp;Lluís Brotons,&nbsp;Luke T. Kelly,&nbsp;Stephen C. Mason Jr.,&nbsp;Kirsten Parris,&nbsp;Lauren Ponisio,&nbsp;David A. Keith","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70479","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70479","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global fire regime change is threatening terrestrial biodiversity. Understanding how these changes affect biota is essential to protect biodiversity now and into the future. A targeted examination of the mechanisms through which fire influences populations will help achieve this by enabling comparisons and connections across taxa. Here, we develop a cross-taxa framework that identifies mechanisms through which fire regimes influence terrestrial species populations over different time scales, and traits on which those mechanisms depend. We focus on amphibians, birds, fungi, insects, mammals, plants, and reptiles. First, we identify key mechanisms through which fire regimes influence species populations across different taxonomic groups. Second, we link these mechanisms to functional traits that influence the relevance to different species. Third, we identify traits that shape the vulnerability—or conversely, resilience—of species populations to frequent, high-intensity, and large wildfires that are emerging as a threat in many parts of the world. Finally, we highlight how this integrative framework can be useful for understanding and identifying fire-related threats common to different taxa across the globe and for guiding future research on fire-related population change.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70479","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145111391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enhanced Rock Weathering Promotes Soil Organic Carbon Accumulation: A Global Meta-Analysis Based on Experimental Evidence","authors":"Tongtong Xu,&nbsp;Huiwen Li,&nbsp;Sara Vicca,&nbsp;Daniel S. Goll,&nbsp;David J. Beerling,&nbsp;Qiong Chen,&nbsp;Boyuan Bi,&nbsp;Zhichun Yang,&nbsp;Xing Wang,&nbsp;Zuoqiang Yuan","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70483","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70483","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Enhanced rock weathering (ERW) has emerged as a promising carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategy with the potential to modulate soil carbon sequestration, yet empirical assessments of its impacts remain limited. Here, we address this knowledge gap through a global meta-analysis synthesizing 74 publications. Synthesized results from field experiments showed that crushed rock amendment increased soil organic carbon (SOC), mineral-associated organic carbon, and particulate organic carbon by an average of up to 3.8%, 6.1%, and 7.5%, respectively, with no significant impact on dissolved organic carbon and soil inorganic carbon. SOC accrual was driven by elevated soil exchangeable Ca, increased microbial biomass, and improved soil structure, with local climate regulating these responses. Machine learning simulations of global croplands revealed pronounced site dependency in ERW impacts on SOC, which was positive in low-latitude (warm and humid) regions (40° N–30° S) but negative in high-latitude (cold and dry) regions. Additionally, the effects of ERW on SOC are dose- and duration-dependent. Our simulations indicated that application amounts of 50–500 g m⁻² are optimal for maximizing SOC sequestration, with positive effects diminishing and negative impacts intensifying beyond this range. This empirical synthesis confirms the efficacy of ERW—particularly when Ca-rich silicate rocks in—promoting SOC sequestration and long-term CO₂ sequestration. Maximizing the CDR potential of ERW requires integrating site-specific climatic and edaphic characteristics with optimized application amounts and duration. Our findings provide insights critical for balancing the costs and benefits of rock weathering for CDR and highlight the importance of ERW as a sustainable strategy for soil carbon management and climate change mitigation.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145110914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cover Crop Root Channels Promote Bacterial Adaptation to Drought in the Maize Rhizosphere","authors":"Debjyoti Ghosh,&nbsp;Yijie Shi,&nbsp;Iris M. Zimmermann,&nbsp;Katja Holzhauser,&nbsp;Martin von Bergen,&nbsp;Anne-Kristin Kaster,&nbsp;Sandra Spielvogel,&nbsp;Michaela A. Dippold,&nbsp;Jochen A. Müller,&nbsp;Nico Jehmlich","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70512","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70512","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Increasing drought frequency poses a significant threat to agricultural productivity. A promising strategy to enhance crop resilience against drought is the utilisation of root channels left by winter cover crops, which can improve access to subsoil water and nutrients for subsequent cash crops like maize (<i>Zea mays</i> L.). The impact of drought on bacterial communities inhabiting these root channels remains largely unknown. Here, we investigated drought-induced shifts in maize rhizosphere bacterial communities and their functional adaptation in cover crop root channels across three soil types in northern Germany (Luvisol, Podzol, and Phaeozem) using a multi-omics approach (16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing, qPCR, and metaproteomics). Our results reveal a preference towards bacterial <i>K</i>-strategists under drought conditions, indicating a shift towards stress-tolerant populations. Under drought stress, the relative abundances of <i>Acidobacteriota</i>, <i>Actinomycetota</i>, <i>Planctomycetota</i>, and <i>Pseudomonadota</i> increased, while <i>Chloroflexota</i>, <i>Methylomirabilota</i>, <i>Ca</i>. Patescibacteria, and <i>Verrucomicrobiota</i> declined. Metaproteomics analyses revealed that drought-stressed aerobic taxa among the <i>Pseudomonadota</i> and <i>Verrucomicrobiota</i> upregulated the glyoxylate cycle, potentially enhancing carbon and energy conservation, and increased antioxidant defences (catalase–glutathione peroxidase and methionine cycle–transsulfuration pathway). These drought-mitigating strategies were especially pronounced in root channels formed by <i>Brassicaceae</i> and <i>Poaceae</i> cover crops in the Luvisol and Podzol soils. These findings demonstrate the functional plasticity of rhizosphere bacterial communities in reused root channels in response to drought, highlighting the potential to leverage microbiome-mediated resilience for agricultural practices.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70512","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145089934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Soil Carbon-to-Nitrogen Ratio Can Predict the Grassland Biodiversity-Productivity Relationship: Evidence From Local, Regional, and Global Scales","authors":"Hongjin Zhang,&nbsp;Lin Jiang,&nbsp;Wei Wang","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70518","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70518","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Soil elemental stoichiometry serves as an inherent link between soil biogeochemistry and the structure and processes within plant communities, and thus is at the core of ecosystem functions. Yet, the regulatory role of soil stoichiometry, particularly the carbon-to-nitrogen (C:N) ratio, in shaping biodiversity-productivity relationships remains poorly understood. By integrating data from our regional field surveys (58 sites) and a local complementary N addition experiment in temperate grasslands, together with a global grassland dataset (74 sites), here we showed that plant productivity exhibited a unimodal response to increasing soil C:N ratios, with peaking values at the C:N ratio of approximately 15. At this critical value, the determinants driving grassland productivity undergo a fundamental shift: below the soil C:N of 15, plant diversity was positively related to productivity, while above this threshold, bacterial and fungal diversity showed a positive linkage with plant productivity. This divergence implies a stoichiometric “switch” in biodiversity-productivity relationships: high soil C:N ratios strengthen the reliance of productivity on soil bacterial and fungal diversity to mitigate N deficiency, while low C:N ratios shift the emphasis to plant diversity to exploit resource-rich environments. Our findings highlight that soil stoichiometry can predict biodiversity-productivity relationships, with important implications for grassland restoration and management.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145090769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate-Driven Variability in Flowering Phenology Changes Across Subtropical Mountains: Traits, Elevation Shifts, and Biogeographic Patterns","authors":"Kuiling Zu,&nbsp;Zhiheng Wang,&nbsp;Fusheng Chen,&nbsp;Jonathan Lenoir,&nbsp;Xiangmin Fang,&nbsp;Fangchao Wang,&nbsp;Wensheng Bu,&nbsp;Jianjun Li,&nbsp;Yuan Luo,&nbsp;Yunyun Wang,&nbsp;Wenqi Song","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70516","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70516","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Flowering phenology has major impacts on physiological processes, survival, and reproductive success in angiosperms, serving as a critical biological indicator of climate change impacts. However, changes in flowering phenology and their determinants in subtropical montane ecosystems remain poorly quantified at continental extents. Here we investigated the determinants of flowering phenology shifts over the past century across 11 subtropical mountains in China. Based on century-long herbarium collections of 784 flowering plant species in these mountains, we first used linear regression models to assess the magnitude and direction of changes in flowering time for each species in each mountain separately. Then, we investigated the underlying drivers of changes in flowering time, including climate changes, species traits as well as changes in species elevation range size. Our analyses revealed an average advancement in flowering phenology of 3.8 days per decade, though marked regional disparities emerged: flowering times were advanced in southeastern mountains but delayed in southwestern ones. Climate change, species functional traits, and mountain properties all had significant effects on the observed changes in flowering time. Notably, the flowering time of lowland and non-native plants was advanced more than that of alpine and native plants. A key finding was the negative correlation between flowering time changes and elevational range expansions, supporting the hypothesis that phenological plasticity facilitates range adjustments under environmental change. These findings demonstrate that flowering phenological responses are context-dependent, mediated by complex biotic–abiotic interactions. Our study provides the first biogeographical assessment of flowering phenology shifts in subtropical Asian mountains, offering critical insights for predicting ecosystem stability and informing biodiversity conservation strategies under ongoing climate change.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145083895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}